Mayo constituency GE2020

6541

Any update ?

Green&Red

I think a lot will depend on who goes first between Mulherin and Dillon

Mulherin going first almost certainly puts Dillon over the top or as close as
Dillon going first could see Chambers take enough to stay ahead from castlebar Dillon/Chambers 1-2s in Castlebar

RedDevil55

Poor enough showing from fianna fail in Mayo. I thought Calleary would be elected on the 1st count along with Ring. Mulherin keeping ahead of Dillon even after Ring's surplus was given out. If Mulherin stays there and Dillon gets eliminated she could jump ahead of Chambers for the last seat.

Bunny Colvin

RedDevil55 wrote: »

If Mulherin stays there and Dillon gets eliminated she could jump ahead of Chambers for the last seat.

God forbid

1wizards sleeve

Dillon going out first could open the door for chambers. He only really polled well in castlebar claremorris area. And I'd say chambers will get a lot of transfers.

6541

Fairly exciting

Shelflife

seligehgit wrote: »

Irishgeo mentioned only RCW surplus and eliminations distributed thus far.

Count 2 was the distribution of Rings surplus according to a few official sources on twitter

Avns1s

1wizards sleeve wrote: »

Dillon going out first could open the door for chambers. He only really polled well in castlebar claremorris area. And I'd say chambers will get a lot of transfers.

That would be the area he was allocated by the party.

irishgeo

Its rose Conway surplus now I assume in count 3.

naughto

Chances of a recount?

Raisins

irishgeo wrote: »

Its rose Conway surplus now I assume in count 3.

That’s correct. Her surplus is 1762. Interesting to see where it goes, she transferred heavily to chambers when eliminated in 2016.

1wizards sleeve

Avns1s wrote: »

That would be the area he was allocated by the party.

Mulherin encroached in a lot of areas. Not just one. But surprisingly she never went into rings area's. And I'd say ring on the QT will be happy about this. He would rather melherin than Kenny's old seat. Mayo will be split in two for them both re fg. If she gets elected. Would be a laugh if Dillon transfers to chambers

Call me Al

Raisins wrote: »

That’s correct. Her surplus is 1762. Interesting to see where it goes, she transferred heavily to chambers when eliminated in 2016.

I'd expect the same this time too.
Chambers and McHugh.

Shelflife

Dara +294

Lisa +208

Michelle +116

Alan +121

Saoirse +309

Paul +192

The rest all get eliminated, Michelle stlll 100 votes ahead of Alan.

Saoirses elimination will decide it all.

RedDevil55

Will there be another count tonight or is that it?

Hercule Poirot

Shelflife wrote: »

Dara +294

Lisa +208

Michelle +116

Alan +121

Saoirse +309

Paul +192

The rest all get eliminated, Michelle stlll 100 votes ahead of Alan.

Saoirses elimination will decide it all.

Does anyone have the actual totals?

RedDevil55

Hercule Poirot wrote: »

Does anyone have the actual totals?

Count 3:
Quota: 12,871
Calleary (FF) 9,671
Chambers (FF) 6,855
Daly (SPBP) 1,072
De Barra (IND) 119
Dillon (FG) 5,944
Forkin (IND) 82
Lawless (Aon) 2,854
Loftus (IND) 670
Manning (IND) 82
McHugh (GP) 4,630
Mulherin (FG) 6.045
Ó Fallamháin (IFP) 279
Uddin (LAB) 308

Dudda

seligehgit wrote: »

Care to have a stab at calling the last seat Dudda?

My thoughts on the Dillon v Mulherin battle which is what I think will win the final seat. Looking at the tallies from earlier:

Dillon obviously did well in his hometown of Castlebar and likewise Mulherin in Ballina. Both got the same 3100. But the rest?

Belmullet
Dillon 2.6%, Mulherin 0.8%

Westport
Dillon 2.5, Mulherin 0.9%

Claremorris
Dillon 8.3%, Mulherin 4.7%

Swinford
Dillon 6.5, Mulherin 12.3%

Lawless who has a lot of votes to distribute is from Knock and therefore scored highly in Claremorris. Looking at first preference above they should fall more to Dillon.

Likewise when McHugh is eliminated next (I don't see her catching and passing Dillon as she's 1300 behind and Lawless has only 2800 to distribute) then her votes get distributed. McHugh did well overall getting 5-6% everywhere so except Westport where she got 10%. This is where Dillon outpolled Mulherin 2.5 to 1.
McHugh also got twice the votes in Castlebar than in Ballina so again should be more to Dillon. Belmullet, Claremorris and Swinford cancel each other out.

Overall I see these push Dillon ahead of Mulherin and then when Mulherin is eliminated, Dillon should easily enough jump Chambers into the final seat.

I can't see Calleary getting to the quota as his big vote in Ballina is not where McHugh or Lawless have loads to give. Calleary therefore has no surplus to give to Chambers.

So where I see it is on the last count Calleary and Dillon elected with Lisa eliminated.
No more counts tonight so have to wait until tomorrow to see if that's what happens.

Shelflife

I think they are going to midnight so we might get the 4th count tonight.

Dudda

Fourth Count, Quota: 12,871
Distribution of votes from 7 excluded candidates

Dara Calleary (FF): 9,874 (+203)
Lisa Chambers (FF): 7,062 (+207)
Alan Dillon (FG): 6,115 (+171)
Paul Lawless (A): 3,375 (+521)
Saoirse McHugh (GP): 5,385 (+755)
Michelle Mulherin (FG): 6,285 (+240)

Doesn't really change much. Lawless next and while McHugh did well in that count she's still to far to catch Dillon so sticking by my Dillon v Mulherin post above.

Cosmo Kramer

Are they going for one more count tonight?

RedDevil55

No one has reached the quota after count 4 in #Mayo.
Quota: 12,871

Calleary (FF) 9,874
Chambers (FF) 7,062
Dillon (FG) 6,115
Lawless (Aon) 3,375
McHugh (GP) 5,385
Mulherin (FG) 6,285

Lawless has been eliminated following this count. #GE2020

Dillon now 170 behind Mulherin.

naughto

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Are they going for one more count tonight?

Ya they are

Shelflife

Callerey +203 9874

Chambers +207 7062

Mulherin +240 6285

Dillon +171 6115

McHugh +755 5385

Lawless +521 3375

Mickeroo

What am I missing with the numbers above? Calleary and Chambers must be a done deal at this stage for 3 and 4 now no? Or is there a load of transfers still left to come into play?

1wizards sleeve

Shelflife wrote: »

Callerey +203 9874

Chambers +207 7062

Mulherin +240 6285

Dillon +171 6115

McHugh +755 5385

Lawless +521 3375

Chambers in trouble

Shelflife

Lawless now eliminated and it seems that they are still counting.

Going down to the wire !

RedDevil55

Mickeroo wrote: »

What am I missing with the numbers above? Calleary and Chambers must be a done deal at this stage for 3 and 4 now no? Or is there a load of transfers still left to come into play?

Whichever FG candidate gets eliminated will get the other over the line. Most likely

Dudda

Mickeroo wrote: »

What am I missing with the numbers above? Calleary and Chambers must be a done deal at this stage for 3 and 4 now no? Or is there a load of transfers still left to come into play?

If you add Lawless, McHugh and then Mulherin who will all get eliminated then you have 15,045 potential transfers. While some won't transfer it's still a lot of potential votes and counting to go.

Loafing Oaf

RedDevil55 wrote: »

Whichever FG candidate gets eliminated will get the other over the line. Most likely

Yeah Lawless and McHugh would have to transfer massively to Chambers for her to have a chance