Mayo constituency GE2020

seligehgit

finisklin wrote: »

Possibly the young and able I agree with. Does the fact that she's a barrister qualify her to be a politician anymore than a builder, teacher, economist or a social worker?

Plus she can't have built up any significant experience in this area given how competitive it is and her youth?

The only qualification required is to get more votes than the next fella and once you have the courage (or neck) to put yourself in front of the electorate then you are off. If you are with FF or FG then that's half the battle.

This election for Alan Dillon will be less important than the next one where he will have built up his base and have a foundation to secure a seat. Plus he should nab one in the local elections next year if unsuccessful.

The battle of Ballyheane will be an interesting one.

Can the footballer side step the barrister? Or will she throw the (statute) book at him?

Time will tell.....

General elections are more and more glorified popularity contests,qualifications and experience in the body politic can be oft set aside for a celebrity candidate.

I'd prefer our minister for finance to have a background in economics or accountancy.One could wish for similar skillsets across various departments.

Of course we'd a politician with a medical background in charge of health and look at how well that went.Ditto Brendan Drumm led the charge in the HSE and look how well that went.

It does appear we are getting more young people studying political science but is it a means of becoming a political advisor/mandarin?

I notice you left out the intelligent bit.:)

Ah TBF I've seen her on the Vinny Browne show and speak on local issues in the Dail and she's come across well and caring of local issues.Not so sure how she'll cope with the BREXIT portfolio!

robman60

Alan Dillon as a candidate, didn't see that coming. Does anyone have any idea what he stands for or is it as simple as he covers Kenny's old ground and will pick up votes from a few lads he kicked ball with over the years?

A sad state of affairs if that's the case but a popularity contest thrown in with a bit of tribalism seems to be what's needed to get you over the line.

Loafing Oaf

robman60 wrote: »

Alan Dillon as a candidate, didn't see that coming. Does anyone have any idea what he stands for or is it as simple as he covers Kenny's old ground and will pick up votes from a few lads he kicked ball with over the years?

A sad state of affairs if that's the case but a popularity contest thrown in with a bit of tribalism seems to be what's needed to get you over the line.

He was desperately casting about for something to replace the buzz from the annual push for Sam, as will his retiring teammates over the next few years. We can look forward to Kevin McLaughlin being the next James Bond, and Keith Higgins the first man on Mars...

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

We've heard a lot of talk about SF and Inds before the last few elections and it's never come to anything. Looks to me like nailed on 2 FF, 2 FG, with the only question being whether Dillon or Mulherin takes the second FG seat.

This is particularly the case if the GE is this autumn, as seems increasingly likely:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/general-election-likely-before-end-of-this-year-835427.html

If any putative non-FG/FF candidate hasn't built up a countywide profile by this stage, they're hardly likely to do it between now and them...

Coillte_Bhoy

seligehgit wrote: »

Any chance of Renua making a comeback?:D

Michael Farrington from Kiltimagh is very vocal on the pro life side, is on local radio regularly and afaik is definitely running again

Westernyelp

seligehgit wrote:

Any chance of Renua making a comeback?

Surely you have to have been 'somewhere' in order to come back?

finisklin

Ring & Mulherin are shoe ins. Dillon will run close and don't think he will quite get over line. That leaves Calleary & Chambers who probably will get in comfortably.

Interesting times......:pac:

nuac

Ring is indeed a shoo-in. FG have been good at vote management in Mayo, but due to the Mayo Taoiseach bounce they have good numbers of votes to manage. Less now. May be hard to get Ring and Mulherin to surrender areas to Dillon, and to ask their usual supporters to back the new lad.

Even committed party people do not relish being told who to vote for.

On the FF side Calleary and Chambers seem to have worked well together at last election, and presumably will do again this time.

Both have got significant promotions within their party - that helps on polling day

Green&Red

Calleary and Ring are shoo-ins, I think Dillon will also get in
I would say Conway is the biggest threat to Chambers over Mulherin
Balina could very rarely get two TDs

ethical

At this stage it would have to be : Ring (fab worker and man of the people)
Calleary ( moving up the ranks in FF)

After that it will be difficult,Chambers is really a national TD,and without the "socialability" factor of being in the constituency regularly her vote will suffer.She hasnt really delivered.(talks like Bev for ages without saying anything!)
Conway Walsh could go close if people get behind her.She is doing great work on the ground locally.
Dillon and Mulherrin will expect Ring to give them a lift up and Mulherrin would have to be favourite if Ballina really wants to be the seat of power in the County.

What odds on the following 4 being elected : Ring,Calleary,Conway Walsh and Mulherrin?

Loafing Oaf

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Michael Farrington from Kiltimagh is very vocal on the pro life side, is on local radio regularly and afaik is definitely running again

Renua have vote no posters up all over Ballina, about half with this guy's face on them. Certainly putting himself out there ahead of the GE, although previous evidence suggests 'social issues' have little or no impact on how people vote...

voz es

My bet is:
Ring, Calleary, Chambers and Kilcoyne :-O

But only if Kilcoyne declares.

Otherwise it's between Conway-Walsh and the FG faithful pulling one of the other two through.

We in the west must strongly question our almost habit lead orientation of voting for Fine Geal, a party whos leader has been drawing money away from us to the benifit of his city.

runawaybishop

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Renua have vote no posters up all over Ballina, about half with this guy's face on them. Certainly putting himself out there ahead of the GE, although previous evidence suggests 'social issues' have little or no impact on how people vote...

I work in tech in mayo and those posters have guaranteed he won't receive votes from most people in my office from what I have heard.

voz es

voz es wrote: »

My bet is:
Ring, Calleary, Chambers and Kilcoyne :-O

But only if Kilcoyne declares.

Otherwise it's between Conway-Walsh and the FG faithful pulling one of the other two through.

We in the west must strongly question our almost habit lead orientation of voting for Fine Geal, a party whos leader has been drawing money away from us to the benifit of his city.

I'd say he was right not to invest in Galway or sligo airports. Galway to Shannon airport in under an hour. Also an hour to knock. Sligo to knock in 40mins.You can't have everything in every village.

The rail corridor maybe. An alternative option for tourism. But most tourists I meet have accepted you need a car when heading west.

Hard to see past 2FG 2FF.Conway. Conway Walsh maybe

Loafing Oaf

runawaybishop wrote: »

I work in tech in mayo and those posters have guaranteed he won't receive votes from most people in my office from what I have heard.

I doubt your co-workers would be Renua's target market anyway. In fairness though, Renua's touchy-feely posters would be more likely to hit the spot with floating voters than a lot of the 'No' ones, with their dodgy stats and foetus pics...

farmchoice

ya yer man farrington is only using it as a chance to get his name out there, which is fair enough i suppose and as you said his posters make him look like a quite moderate no voter, which is not a bad thing to be in mayo political scene i suppose.
having said all that i really dont see where he thinks his vote is going to come from, hes not a local issues campaigner as far as i know, not in north mayo anyway,and renua are a completely busted flush nationally
before the last election i had never heard of the guy and too be honest he did not make much of an impression the last time out, now ill admit his politics would naturally be anathema to me but still i can usually spot a competent performer when i see one and i though he was a no mark, just another wannabe of which there were quite a few last time out.

Coillte_Bhoy

farmchoice wrote: »

ya yer man farrington is only using it as a chance to get his name out there, which is fair enough i suppose and as you said his posters make him look like a quite moderate no voter, which is not a bad thing to be in mayo political scene i suppose.
having said all that i really dont see where he thinks his vote is going to come from, hes not a local issues campaigner as far as i know, not in north mayo anyway,and renua are a completely busted flush nationally
before the last election i had never heard of the guy and too be honest he did not make much of an impression the last time out, now ill admit his politics would naturally be anathema to me but still i can usually spot a competent performer when i see one and i though he was a no mark, just another wannabe of which there were quite a few last time out.

A moderate No voter? You should have a look at his facebook page. he's calmed down a bit recently but a few weeks back he was going way ott. It's pure political opportunism imo, during the GE in 2016 he didnt want to discuss the issue at all iirc. In fairness to him though he is a fairly competent performer, ill give him that

Loafing Oaf

Wonder will Mayo live up to its reputation as a bastion of traditional values tomorrow. Gave the fourth highest no to gay marriage a couple of years ago...Saw a 'vote no for God & country' sign in Ardnaree today that looked like it dusted down from 1983, with 'no' pasted over 'yes'...

Cosmo Kramer

I think it's safe enough to predict that Mayo, along with most of the western seaboard and border areas (other than Galway and Limerick cities), will be voting no tomorrow. Dublin will be a huge yes along with the rest of the east coast. The outcome will be decided in the 'bypass' counties in Leinster and Munster I reckon. Whichever way the likes of Carlow-Kilkenny, Laois-Offaly and the Tipperary constituencies go will probably swing it in the end.

Loafing Oaf

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

I the 'bypass' counties in Leinster and Munster I reckon. Whichever way the likes of Carlow-Kilkenny, Laois-Offaly and the Tipperary constituencies go will probably swing it in the end.

Ireland's version of the 'flyover states'? I like it.:p

whitey1

Just checked the 2016 census.....Mayo, Roscommon, Sligo and Leitrim are among the 5 oldest counties in Ireland (Kerry is the oldest). Older people are more conservative than younger people. I think its quite unfair to paint an entire county (with a brush like what happened Roscommon after the marriage equality vote) as backwards, when in fact, their young people just live elsewhere in the country or abroad

farmchoice

while i would expect mayo to have one of the higher no votes and expect it to be majority no i'm predicting that the margin will be tighter then many expect with a bigger yes vote than forecast.

im going with a national 57-43 yes and a mayo 51-49no.


i think there is actually a silent yes vote out there. what has brought me to this conclusion is something i witnessed outside mc hale park after the galway game.


as we came out there were a number of groups of no campaigners. at each group i heard a number of people complain about them being there. now admittedly everyone was in a pretty bad mood anyway but i was still taken aback to hear it in mayo. nothing said was nasty or aggressive but they were certainly not getting much love.

Loafing Oaf

farmchoice wrote: »

while i would expect mayo to have one of the higher no votes and expect it to be majority no i'm predicting that the margin will be tighter then many expect with a bigger yes vote than forecast.

im going with a national 57-43 yes and a mayo 51-49no.


i think there is actually a silent yes vote out there.

Well things went as you predicted only more so (if the exit polls are even close to right).:P If Mayo votes no, even by a whisker, it looks like we'll be on our own...

PARlance

"THE Mayo count is underway at the TF Royal Hotel in Castlebar and the early indications are that the electorate of Mayo has voted emphatically in favour of repealing the 8th Amendment in line with national trends."

The Connaught Telegraph facebook page

Coillte_Bhoy

Couple of tallies, Yes %

Kiltimagh 64%
Swinford 56%

Addle

No word from Keith Swannick today.

Loafing Oaf

Looking at the County Council results, things don't really change in Mayo do they? Does anyone think Saoirse McHugh would have a chance of winning a Dail seat? Going by SF's results in the council elections, I don't think Conway Walsh will be the one to break the FF/FG duopoly.

Dudda

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Looking at the County Council results, things don't really change in Mayo do they? Does anyone think Saoirse McHugh would have a chance of winning a Dail seat? Going by SF's results in the council elections, I don't think Conway Walsh will be the one to break the FF/FG duopoly.

Yes, she's probably the best chance but who'll she replace? Only 4 seats. Not going to be Ring and unlikely Lisa Chambers or Dara Calleary. That leaves Enda Kenny's seat.

Alan Dillon has gone to every book signing, sod turning, school sports day and funeral imaginable. His PR team make him look (at least on social media and in the local papers) like he's doing more work than than all other politicians combined. I'm not on Facebook either when they target your feed. Local papers like Connaught, Mid West Radio and website, Western People, Mayo Advertiser, Mayo News, etc. Does anyone else see this?

If he keeps getting this much attention he'll out pole Michelle Mulherin which I don't think would be hard.

nuac

While Alan Dillon is showing up in a lot of places he has not, afaik, any record in any kind of community development,
Despite the best efforts of the current team, he does not have an All-Ireland medal like Seán Flanagan years ago.
Also Cllr Patsy O'Brien has again topped the poll in his own Claremorris LEA. 2955 votes, a Mayo record. He is still keen to run for DÉ. Might well go independent if FG continue to refuse to nominate him.

Cosmo Kramer

Can't see McHugh getting anywhere in the Mayo constituency in the general elections. Would expect FF/FG to continue to dominate going forward.