Mayo constituency GE2020

seligehgit

Based on the local elections it will be two each Fine Gael and Fianna F IMO.

Michael Ring and Alan Dillon for Fine Gael,can't see Michelle Mulherin getting elected under any circumstances.

Lisa Chambers and Dara Calleary for Fianna F.

Hulk Hands

Why is Mayo traditionally such a Fine Geal stronghold, out of interest? Makes no sense demographically to be that out of kilter with the rest of rural Ireland. I can understand it to a small degree when Enda was leader but have heard it was this way long before Enda

Loafing Oaf

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Why is Mayo traditionally such a Fine Geal stronghold, out of interest? Makes no sense demographically to be that out of kilter with the rest of rural Ireland. I can understand it to a small degree when Enda was leader but have heard it was this way long before Enda

No if you go back to when it was Mayo East and West, both constituencies nearly always returned two FF, one FG, a typical rural three-seater.

Hulk Hands

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

No if you go back to when it was Mayo East and West, both constituencies nearly always returned two FF, one FG, a typical rural three-seater.

Possibly got it wrong, have always heard it said Mayo was strong FG

Loafing Oaf

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Possibly got it wrong, have always heard it said Mayo was strong FG

Maybe if you went way back pre 1970s, when it was Mayo North and South, I wouldn't know. FG's dominance in the last 20 years is due to Michael Ring's massive vote-getting capacity and Enda's unexpected rise to the top. Be interesting to see how well the party performs when they've both left the scene.

Coillte_Bhoy

Cosmo Kramer wrote: »

Can't see McHugh getting anywhere in the Mayo constituency in the general elections. Would expect FF/FG to continue to dominate going forward.

There wasnt a full tally done for mayo but from the tallies i saw she was just under 14%, thats not a bad base to be starting from, most people hadnt heard of her 10 days ago. If anyone is going to break the cosy Fg/FF cartel she is the only one at the moment who looks like she might have a shot, thats of course if she decides to run. SF's decline rules out RCW i would think

farmchoice

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Possibly got it wrong, have always heard it said Mayo was strong FG

when it was mayo west and east it was usually 2 ff 1 fg in each. the emergence of FG as the dominant force has been more recent.
it is possible that the strong FF showing was down to a bit of gerrymandering with the way the constituency was divided. East west makes little sense form a regional point of view.
back in the day FF vote management was a thing to behold every FF voter voted strategically to maximize the vote, those days are gone.

Loafing Oaf

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

There wasnt a full tally done for mayo but from the tallies i saw she was just under 14%, thats not a bad base to be starting from, most people hadnt heard of her 10 days ago. If anyone is going to break the cosy Fg/FF cartel she is the only one at the moment who looks like she might have a shot, thats of course if she decides to run. SF's decline rules out RCW i would think

There's the old stereotype of farmer animosity to the Greens but you'd think there's enough 'town' votes in Mayo for her to disregard that. Presumably the second FG seat would be the one she'd be hoping to take; Dillon is an unknown quantity and Mulherin has, ahem, issues. Plus I reckon FG voters are less triballyloyal, notwithstanding the party's recent dominance referenced in other posts.

iluvfatfrogs

She could possibly just sit tight for 5 years and have a go again at European's?
Would seem the best fit to me

Green&Red

nuac wrote: »

While Alan Dillon is showing up in a lot of places he has not, afaik, any record in any kind of community development,
Despite the best efforts of the current team, he does not have an All-Ireland medal like Seán Flanagan years ago.
Also Cllr Patsy O'Brien has again topped the poll in his own Claremorris LEA. 2955 votes, a Mayo record. He is still keen to run for DÉ. Might well go independent if FG continue to refuse to nominate him.

Patsy already put his name forward and wasn’t selected

nuac

Green&Red wrote: »

Patsy already put his name forward and wasn’t selected

What were the voting figures?
Patsy polls very well in council elections and is an extremely active councillor.

irishgeo

rings surplus will drag dillion in if they split it well.

ureds

irishgeo wrote: »

rings surplus will drag dillion in if they split it well.

Ring gets more a personal vote than a party vote.

Loafing Oaf

irishgeo wrote: »

rings surplus will drag dillion in if they split it well.

Based on the local elections you'd have to expect the constituency to stay two FF/two FG. I'm not writing off Michelle Mulherin though.

Water John

I think McHugh needs to run in some constituency in the GE to keep up her profile, or else by some other means. eg media.
I also think some Greens need to reach out to the rural and farming communities specifically.

Loafing Oaf

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Michael Farrington from Kiltimagh is very vocal on the pro life side, is on local radio regularly and afaik is definitely running again

Farrington still banging the drum for Renua after party leader and only elected representative quits:
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/renua-left-with-no-elected-politician-as-leader-john-leahy-steps-down-1.3921856
“It will be a five-year process to build for the next election. We intend to run candidates in the next general election and will continue with our message.”

God loves a trier, I suppose, especially one with his views...

Loafing Oaf

https://westernpeople.ie/2019/12/30/independent-councillors-undecided-on-election-run/

Western People article speculating on whether Mark Duffy or Michael Kilcoyne will jump into the ring. Sounds like it's a no from Duffy and and a definite maybe from Kilcoyne:
Cllr Kilcoyne remarked that recent elections have proven that the Mayo electorate is slow to change its mind and struggles to get past the traditional options of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael....
but:
“If the same people that voted for an Independent candidate in the last local election vote again for an Independent TD next year then you would have to think that we would be there or thereabouts in returning a non- party candidate,” he concluded.

farmchoice

probably a bit too soon for duffy, but i certainly would not be surprised to see him run in the future.

Mayo elected gerry crowley in the past so there is a history of independents there, Crowley had wide appeal, he was from ballina but was very well know and regarded in west Mayo and ultimately it was a ballina based TD he unseated.

in the next election it will be the FG vote that will be up for grabs with both kenny and ring not running again. FF would be confident enough there will get their 2 back in especially as they could be looking at two government ministers afterwards.
an independent from castlebar/westport area would have the best chance, ring in particular always had a massive personal vote.

having said all that its hard to see an independent getting in, they would need a big single issue and not just vague rural decline guff.

Loafing Oaf

farmchoice wrote: »

probably a bit too soon for duffy, but i certainly would not be surprised to see him run in the future.

Mayo elected gerry crowley in the past so there is a history of independents there, Crowley had wide appeal, he was from ballina but was very well know and regarded in west Mayo and ultimately it was a ballina based TD he unseated.

in the next election it will be the FG vote that will be up for grabs with both kenny and ring not running again. FF would be confident enough there will get their 2 back in especially as they could be looking at two government ministers afterwards.
an independent from castlebar/westport area would have the best chance, ring in particular always had a massive personal vote.

having said all that its hard to see an independent getting in, they would need a big single issue and not just vague rural decline guff.

Hadn't realised Kilcoyne was from the Labour gene pool, that might boost him beyond what a standard 'parish pump' independent might get, there apparently being no other serious 'left' contender. Having said that it didn't seem to help him much in 2011 when Labour were flying high across the country.

Here's a Mayo Advertiser opinion poll that show how difficult it will be for anyone outside FF/FG to make a breakthrough. Labour, SF. Greens all on 1-2%...
https://www.advertiser.ie/mayo/article/110471/poll-shows-no-mayo-breakthrough-for-green-party-and-sinn-fin

RogerThis

farmchoice wrote: »

in the next election it will be the FG vote that will be up for grabs with both kenny and ring not running again.

I don't think that's true.
https://www.con-telegraph.ie/news/roundup/articles/2019/12/25/4183819-minister-ring-denies-speculation-next-election-will-be-his-last/

naughto

Dillon kicked off his election bid in the tf last night with enda endorsing him.

Are we looking at a number of weeks before its called?

Loafing Oaf

naughto wrote: »

Dillon kicked off his election bid in the tf last night with enda endorsing him.

Are we looking at a number of weeks before its called?

Paddy Power says it's 1/4 to happen before the end of March. Would love to see their (or any bookie's) odds for the constituency...

irishgeo

cant see anything other than the same 4 getting back in although lisa has taken a bit of shine of herself with the voting scandal.

seligehgit

irishgeo wrote: »

cant see anything other than the same 4 getting back in although lisa has taken a bit of shine of herself with the voting scandal.

Presuming you mean Alan Dillon for Enda Kenny?:)

finisklin

It will be interesting to see the full field of candidates. Some of the independents like Kilcoyne could steal crucial votes.



Chambers and Calleary will give it a good run.



Has McHugh declared?


FG interesting too as Ring won't go forever. Will he hold his vote or will it wane? Will he get enough of a base to help bring Dillon over line? The RIC commeration will be remembered on the door steps, perhaps more so with younger voters?



Where does that leave Mulherin?


Will be interesting to watch.

irishgeo

Ring could struggle in achill after disappearing when the direct provision debate was in full flow.

Although his serious funding allocation to the region will get him over the line id say. Probably drag Dillion in on transfers.

Loafing Oaf

finisklin wrote: »

Where does that leave Mulherin?

If we're assuming it'll be a battle between her and Dillon for the second FG seat, I still think she holds a number of aces, including having first dibs on the north county FG vote and a higher profile outside the GAA community. Plus she probably knows she won't get another chance of getting back to the Dail if she doesn't make it this time, whereas Dillon's time surely come when Ring steps down...

irishgeo

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If we're assuming it'll be a battle between her and Dillon for the second FG seat, I still think she holds a number of aces, including having first dibs on the north county FG vote and a higher profile outside the GAA community. Plus she probably knows she won't get another chance of getting back to the Dail if she doesn't make it this time, whereas Dillon's time surely come when Ring steps down...

She has had own her expenses issues in the past.

naughto

From the front page of the connaught Ring not happy of being snubbed to talk at dillions election night

Water John

A perceived grievance is great to get your own troops rallied.