Summer 2017 - General Discussion

sryanbruen

It's a very confusing situation atm with all the models of what is going to happen. In general, the more settled theme is continuing with them but the difference lies in the temperatures. The GFS, after a warm weekend, is going for a very cool week after with temperatures struggling in the mid teens. The ECMWF is showing a heatwave towards next week :pac:, especially in England. Ireland has more comfortable temperatures but still well above. As you saw from pedigree 6's post in the FI Charts thread yesterday, the GEM is much the same with crazy high temperatures.

I cannot predict what's going to happen with these stark contrasts between the models. However, remember in my Summer forecast I said for a much better end to June.

squarecircles

The scatter,confusion and changes among the models is reflected in Met Eireanns and MT's forecast this morning, Met Eireann going for a very warm weekend,up to 26 degress,Mt now less confident of such temperatures with a return to cool and unsettled conditions next week.

pedigree 6

squarecircles wrote: »

The scatter,confusion and changes among the models is reflected in Met Eireanns and MT's forecast this morning, Met Eireann going for a very warm weekend,up to 26 degress,Mt now less confident of such temperatures with a return to cool and unsettled conditions next week.

Met eireann give their forecasts from the European model (ECM and GEM) while Mt Cranium goes off the American model (GFS) afaik.

sryanbruen

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Met eireann give their forecasts from the European model (ECM and GEM) while Mt Cranium goes off the American model (GFS) afaik.

Whilst I go off of the general consensus but right now, there is no general consensus of agreement that I can base off of.

squarecircles

i have a gut feeling it will go tits up.

squarecircles

down along the west coast banjaxed anyways,during the potential fine spell over the weekend,
i hope it wont be one of those type of summers...

west coast of france 32,west coast of ireland 13 :pac:

Gonzo

looks knife edge stuff even for the east coast, could easily end up with just mid teens nationwide while most of mid-west, central, southern and south-eastern UK in the furnace. Hopefully we can hold on to 20C+ in Ireland for a few days at least. We could do with a break after the terrible June so far.

squarecircles

pedigree 6

squarecircles wrote: »

That's 3 am in the morning.

But I get your point. The heat wave on Wednesday seems to be gone off the table. With low pressure coming in on Monday.

(And GEM was our last hope of a heatwave).

Sunday and Monday still look warm though.

h7nlrp2v0g5u48

Met Eireann seem to be sticking to a warm weekend with temps between 22c to 26 so it will be interesting to see if it pans out that way. Most likely will go belly up if that High to the south doesn't move up closer to Ireland.

squarecircles

id rather a cool northwesterly blowing than being buried and choked under this muck,at least it would be brighter,with a bit of sun,and one could enjoy the longer days,i cant stand these southwesterlies in summer,endless grey sheets of anticyclonic gloom that wont shift,its just depressing.

Southern Britain could be getting their first heatwave of the summer later next week going by the ECM with the plus 20 isotherm pushing into the south,that would bring temperatures into the low thirties.

Oscar Bravo

squarecircles wrote: »

id rather a cool northwesterly blowing than being buried and choked under this muck,at least it would be brighter,with a bit of sun,and one could enjoy the longer days,i cant stand these southwesterlies in summer,endless grey sheets of anticyclonic gloom that wont shift,its just depressing.]

fully agree

Gaoth Laidir

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Met eireann give their forecasts from the European model (ECM and GEM) while Mt Cranium goes off the American model (GFS) afaik.

That's a bit disingenuous to MT to say he only goes off one model. He looks at all models and is a fan of the Canadian.

pedigree 6

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

That's a bit disingenuous to MT to say he only goes off one model. He looks at all models and is a fan of the Canadian.

I stand to be corrected. Thanks.:)

That's why I put (as far as I know) afaik at the end of my post.

pauldry

Once you pass the first week of June the West does worst from these set ups

Storm 10

Met Eireann this morning "there is now some uncertainty as to how far the high will push up over Ireland "

squarecircles

they seem confident now of the ridge amplification,locally warm in the south and east on friday,possibly 23 degrees,pigmuck for the west,warmer still perhaps on saturday,pigmuck again further west,more of a chance of nationwide warm sunny conditions on sunday,lasting into monday,and then back to cool weather.

pauldry

GFS brings drier conditions right into next week.

Certainly as was muted earlier in June the 2nd half will be much better than the first

Here in Sligo it hasnt been bad at all

Our rainfall is only slightly above normal so far this month and if theres dry weather there is a small chance we may get drier than average 6 months in a row for 2017. Unprecedented

Storm 10

Met Eireann now saying its going to breakdown by Tuesday

SATURDAY: Largely dry on Saturday (save the odd light morning shower about
the northwest coastal fringes). Much of Munster and Leinster seeing long spells
of sunshine with maxima climbing into mid-20s, but cloudier conditions do look
likely to persist in parts of Connacht and Ulster with temperatures of 16 to 19
degrees more typical for these regions.

SUNDAY: Current indications for
Sunday are for the dry and fine conditions to establish nationwide with maximum
temperatures in the low to mid-20s.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: The warm spell of
weather is signalled to continue into Monday but a breakdown to cooler
conditions is currently signalled to occur as we head into Tuesday of next week.

squarecircles

the gfs keeping it dry next week,warming things up a tad towards the latter part of next week,with a predominately south easterly flow...

squarecircles

Gosh,Spain is swealtering.A staggering 42 degrees on friday in seville!!!,

PokeHerKing

Storm 10 wrote:

Met Eireann now saying its going to breakdown by Tuesday

Too far out to predict. Enjoy the wknd before worrying about next week

JCX BXC

At least the weekend is there for ye for once, bit more useful than having a spell in mid-week thats gone by the weekend.

Gonzo

JCX BXC wrote: »

At least the weekend is there for ye for once, bit more useful than having a spell in mid-week thats gone by the weekend.

just seen the forecast on RTE, a very good and warm forecast from Friday to Monday. Could reach up to 26C in some inland eastern areas over the weekend.

VeVeX

Gonzo wrote: »

just seen the forecast on RTE, a very good and warm forecast from Friday to Monday. Could reach up to 26C in some inland eastern areas over the weekend.

Praise the lord \o/

squarecircles

I wonder what would happen here if this were to take place,even for a day,
26 degrees sounds hilarious in comparison.

Chris_5339762

Every street would melt for a start.

JCX BXC

Many deaths and many injures (heat stroke, dehydration etc,) you see people unable to take care of themselves once the temperature goes above 25c here, imagine 45c.

Plus things here really aren't designed for those temperatures, I'd say the roads would be a nice temperature!

Gonzo

those sorts of temperatures are quite normal in Spain up to early September, places like Seville often have 38C+ for days, sometimes weeks on end. In a proper heatwave the temps can hit 40C and more right on the coast and then the upper 40s in places like Seville, even Madrid and inland Murcia.

I can't imagine 1 day of that here. If it happened there would still be people drinking beer in that sun without suncream and they would be in hospital the next day. Our roads would start melting, particularly the side roads. Most parts of Ireland struggle to see 25C on 1 day a year, I think we're very safe from every seeing temps go much beyond 31C.

squarecircles

An orange alert has been issued by the Spainish met for southern regions,
id imagine there will be a mass exodus to the coast,at the weekend.

just started to drizzle here,rank evening.