Summer 2017 - General Discussion

Donegal Storm

12C, grey and windy in Donegal. Satellite suggesting the sun might make a rare appearance later

Xenji

Bright and dry in Castlebar, 17.2C but feeling a bit colder with a westerly breeze.

sryanbruen

The GFS 06z is going for a very bland, unremarkable first half to July with the jet stream to the northwest bringing low pressure at times whilst at other times, the Azores High ridging up to us. Temperatures looking rather mild with this setup throughout. Nothing exciting or especially warm though.

The ECMWF 00z shows the Azores High ridging through the country from early next week to the latter part of the week when low pressure starts to push into the northwest. Temperatures very similar to the GFS however in that they're not exciting at all and just rather mild in the high teens.

Very benign and bland start to July it looks like from the models today.

scooby77

Even met eireann have given up!

Harry Palmr

They might as well just say "it probably won't snow" and be done with it!

Hal1

HP looked like it was trying to establish itself, but deepening atlantic lows seem to be winning out again.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann saying lowest temps 6C to 8C overnight. Some of the models showing down to 4C or 5C inland and the GFS showing getting down to 3C in the E.

Oscar Bravo

1130pm, Dublin Airport 7 degrees. A cold night for June 30th

Meteorite58

We will all have to go to Cork tomorrow for a bit of heat

sryanbruen

Katesbridge, Co. Down recorded an air minimum of 0.8c this morning.

Dr Crayfish

My house is freezing here in north Dublin this morning brrrr

Billcarson

Got down to 6.3c here early this morning.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

The GFS 06z is going for a very bland, unremarkable first half to July with the jet stream to the northwest bringing low pressure at times whilst at other times, the Azores High ridging up to us. Temperatures looking rather mild with this setup throughout. Nothing exciting or especially warm though.

The ECMWF 00z shows the Azores High ridging through the country from early next week to the latter part of the week when low pressure starts to push into the northwest. Temperatures very similar to the GFS however in that they're not exciting at all and just rather mild in the high teens.

Very benign and bland start to July it looks like from the models today.

Here's what the models are showing today in comparison with yesterday.

The GFS 06z is showing low pressure up to Iceland throughout the week and high pressure over the country - going up to Scotland by Friday, though pushing southwards again on Saturday bringing the winds back to a westerly and low pressure into the north. Temperatures going widely up to 21-23c on Friday.

The ECMWF 00z is quite similar but the high pressure is weaker than that of the GFS through the week. It's showing the low pressure that the GFS is also indicating on Saturday 8th, pushing across the country with a very warm window of high temperatures in between the fronts bringing temperatures up to 25c potentially. After this, back to westerlies with low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the south.

Models' outlook have improved somewhat today if you want dry fine weather. Friday - the best day according to models today, is a long way off however and I'd highly expect it to change as we get closer to the time frame - or even in the next run of the models :P.

Donegal Storm

Well July has started off just as the whole of June was in Donegal, cold, grey and raining, visibility about 1km

DOCARCH

After a generally fine day in Dublin 16, some light rain now. 18.4c atm. High of 18.8c today.

sryanbruen

DOCARCH wrote: »

After a generally fine day in Dublin 16, some light rain now. 18.4c atm. High of 18.8c today.

Opposite here. Generally overcast and dry at Grange but now as soon as you say it, it's brightening up :P.

EDIT: I spoke too soon. About 14 minutes later, it starts getting cloudy and very thick cloud at that.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

Here's what the models are showing today in comparison with yesterday.

The GFS 06z is showing low pressure up to Iceland throughout the week and high pressure over the country - going up to Scotland by Friday, though pushing southwards again on Saturday bringing the winds back to a westerly and low pressure into the north. Temperatures going widely up to 21-23c on Friday.

The ECMWF 00z is quite similar but the high pressure is weaker than that of the GFS through the week. It's showing the low pressure that the GFS is also indicating on Saturday 8th, pushing across the country with a very warm window of high temperatures in between the fronts bringing temperatures up to 25c potentially. After this, back to westerlies with low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the south.

Models' outlook have improved somewhat today if you want dry fine weather. Friday - the best day according to models today, is a long way off however and I'd highly expect it to change as we get closer to the time frame - or even in the next run of the models :P.

The UKMO and GEM are on board with what the GFS is showing for later this week. Meanwhile, the ECMWF is just not seeing this warmer interval happening at this stage.

JCX BXC

Poor day, lots of drizzle. Looks like I may get the worst of tomorrow too here.

Romantic Rose

How's the forecast looking for Friday in the north? I've looked at so many different sites and they're all different!

pauldry

Very bland day here in Sligo

Mild and meh

The below average rain of every month of 2017 was broken in June in Sligo . We were 1.4mm over.

Every month of 2017 has had an IMT warmer than average

The last cooler than average November 2016

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

Poor day, lots of drizzle. Looks like I may get the worst of tomorrow too here.

I can just reuse this for today too. Haven't had a max over 16c in a week.

Harry Palmr

Lovely day in Waterford, the outlook for the week is better than I was expecting. Nothing spectacular but certainly more dry than not by some distance.

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Very bland day here in Sligo

Mild and meh

The below average rain of every month of 2017 was broken in June in Sligo . We were 1.4mm over.

Every month of 2017 has had an IMT warmer than average

The last cooler than average November 2016

Yep though April was fairly close with an IMT of 8.8c compared to the average of 8.5c.

We were overdue a long period of above average temperature months imo anyway.

Oscar Bravo

Castlebar- low cloud,mist ,drizzle/light rain. that sort of night.... more of the same tomorrow evening judging by the models. South east will do good this week.

JCX BXC

Am I seeing things or have Met Eireann gone up to 24c for Wednesday and Thursday?

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

Am I seeing things or have Met Eireann gone up to 24c for Wednesday and Thursday?

They have.

Meanwhile, the long range models are showing quite a cool July on the looks of things :cool:. This is very surprising given the pressure setup they are showing. I think they're being a bit too pessimistic. I'm seeing another warm month for July if it pans out the way I'm expecting it to be with the setup of low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the south. Looking rather like a July 1991 kind of month to me - which was a warm but unsettled and dull month.

August at this very moment is looking excellent though with plenty of high pressure - possibly up to August 1995 standards.

JCX BXC

Raining, yet again.

pauldry

Todays sposed to be lashing here but one of the nicest days in a while though no doubt theres a wet evening on the cards

sryanbruen

The GFS ensembles for Dublin here show some quite warm upper temperatures taking place for the next few weeks and some very warm ones towards the end of week where the precipitation spikes are also appearing. Quite a mix throughout the period but overall for Dublin, it looks to be warm and dry.

squarecircles

and..... rinse and repeat,same old same old,another repeat performance of what happened in throughout june,drier and warmer to the east,west and northwest in the pig muck,the theme of this summer is well and truely locked in now - weak finger of the azores ridges up at a 45 degree diagonal,moves east and settles to the east of the uk,southwesterly flow develops,acres of gloom in off the atlantic for west of ireland,lovely job.,England approaching 30 on many occasions from end of this next week onwards

can start taking the nails out of the box and start hammering a few into the coffin that is Summer of 2017,for the west and northwest at least. Pathetic.