Summer 2017 - General Discussion

Xenji

Wet and humid in Castlebar at 13.2C, at least we had a good day yesterday so not all bad.

Donegal Storm

Back to normal in Donegal, 14C and raining

LEIN

Local suntrap temp of 30C+ here on my south facing patio.

Gonzo

a fantastic weekend continues here, feeling very warm, mostly cloudy but some nice sunny breaks as well, temps close to 20C.

The week ahead is starting to look quite decent especially for the south and east, Tuesday may be the poorest day. From Wednesday onwards temps generally 19-23C in many eastern and southern regions with little in the way of rain.

Unfortunately the north-west will be more prone to cooler and damper conditions, but those areas could see a nice day on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meteorite58

Front making it's way down the country, rainfall amounts small atm, few drops a while ago here in Tralee. Temps dropping in the cooler air, gone from 19.1C to 16.9C here. Ouch.. 13C in a lot of N and NE areas.

LEIN

Some cloud has arrived.
Sun trap down to 28C

Gonzo

totally cloudy here now, but still feeling mild/warm.

George Sunsnow

Still partly sunny in Arklow
High of 23.2 earlier
Currently 21.8c

Perfect

George Sunsnow

Mr Bastardi is fairly promising of major UK heat in a few weeks
I wonder what Synoptics?

The trend of the summer so far is for eastern parts at least to borrow a shade of warmth from over the pond

If I remember MT's summer forecast correctly,it was in line (for us) for what Mr Bastardi is now expecting

Perhaps if MT is around he might comment?

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/884054732934959104

Harry Palmr

The pond is the Atlantic where it's no doubt hideously hot and they can keep that.

Fecking "hot" in my back garden even if the temp is only 20, peaked at 22.5 at lunchtime. Very humid and not nice really unless you are doing nothing.

glightning

Well my opinion on how this summer is panning out up here in NI is that it's becoming hideously late autumn like. Far too many dreary, drab days. Low light levels making it feel like November. It's rapidly becoming the summer that never was.
And some of the latest GFS runs are scary. With a relentless westerly flow and an Azores high that is certainly living up to it's name this year, because it doesn't want to shift at all from the Azores! Any migration it makes is usually to the east, and therefore only England (and especially the South East) really catch it's influence this year. 
Some of the lows showing up on the models at the fantasy island range (coming off the US mainland) are looking potent for the time of year. I wouldn't be surprised if we descend into a wet and wild autumn this year.

glightning

That huge cold pool of water temps in the north Atlantic really needs to call it a day a disappear off somewhere far away from here. It surely aids cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic by helping to increase the temperature gradiant. I believe it has played a significant role in the sub par summers of recent years. It needs to go ASAP!

Donegal Storm

Turned out to be a truly awful day here, 12C, windy and pouring down heavy misty rain. Anyone who dares go outdoors is in full winter clothes

Cantona's Collars

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Mr Bastardi is fairly promising of major UK heat in a few weeks
I wonder what Synoptics?

The trend of the summer so far is for eastern parts at least to borrow a shade of warmth from over the pond

If I remember MT's summer forecast correctly,it was in line (for us) for what Mr Bastardi is now expecting

Perhaps if MT is around he might comment?

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/884054732934959104

It's been that way for a while now.Spoke to somebody just back from the SE of the UK and it was hot and humid,I was further West and it was still in the mid twenties, the coolest it got was 21c by the coast.The furthest into Ireland for this weather has been mainly the SE.I'd crack up if I was in the West this summer,hints of nice weather early in play and replaced by mid teens muck.

sryanbruen

glightning wrote: »

That huge cold pool of water temps in the north Atlantic really needs to call it a day a disappear off somewhere far away from here. It surely aids cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic by helping to increase the temperature gradiant. I believe it has played a significant role in the sub par summers of recent years. It needs to go ASAP!

It does. It's been annoying me so much these past few years :mad:.

sryanbruen wrote: »

It will probably be a west-east split with the west often seeing cloudy weather and the east seeing sunny weather.

Well I did warn this in my Summer forecast ^ that the west would often see cloudy weather.

George Sunsnow

zerks wrote: »

It's been that way for a while now.Spoke to somebody just back from the SE of the UK and it was hot and humid,I was further West and it was still in the mid twenties, the coolest it got was 21c by the coast.The furthest into Ireland for this weather has been mainly the SE.I'd crack up if I was in the West this summer,hints of nice weather early in play and replaced by mid teens muck.

Yeah by the pond I meant the Irish Sea not the Atlantic
It ain't easy to have warm weather up to 50 miles in from the west coast with a feed off the Atlantic but it does get quite neutralised by the time it reaches the Far East from Dublin to Wexford especially if there's sun in the East
A whole different world

George Sunsnow

Still 19c
Last bit of blue sky in the eastern horizon
No complaints:)

Oneiric 3

glightning wrote: »

That huge cold pool of water temps in the north Atlantic really needs to call it a day a disappear off somewhere far away from here. It surely aids cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic by helping to increase the temperature gradiant. I believe it has played a significant role in the sub par summers of recent years. It needs to go ASAP!

I'm not sure if Atlantic SSTs really have the much influence of summer weather patterns in general. Look at the Atlantic SST deviations back in July 2007 for example, which was a very wet summer month over much of the country:




I do think if there is any influence to be had regarding Atlantic temps on weather patterns, then it isn't just to cold pool to the west (which is more near average than cool or cold) that we should be looking at, but also the very much warmer sea temps to our north, which have been there for a good few years now. Latest analysis (anomalies) from the UK Met:



Until the temps in this region of the Atlantic shift back to more normal, then I do think that we'll be looking at another lame winter ahead with weakened storm depressions and insipid cold, snowy spells from the north.

George Sunsnow

The secondary main nuisance of prevailing westerly Atlantic winds is stating the obvious,it's always bringing in an air temp influenced by water temps
That influence dies off a good bit further East after a few hundred miles of a warmer land track and in the case of south westerlies into Dublin pretty warm Sumer temps if not accompanied by rain at the time

Gavlor

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Turned out to be a truly awful day here, 12C, windy and pouring down heavy misty rain. Anyone who dares go outdoors is in full winter clothes

At this stage I'm not sure if you're lying or losing it!

Another super day in the south east, it's hard to imagine such a variance over a prolonged period of time between two parts of a county the size of Ireland.

sryanbruen

Gavlor wrote: »

At this stage I'm not sure if you're lying or losing it!

Another super day in the south east, it's hard to imagine such a variance over a prolonged period of time between two parts of a county the size of Ireland.

Trust me it could be like 30c in some parts of Ireland whilst other places could be struggling in the teens on the same day.

glightning

Gavlor wrote: »

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Turned out to be a truly awful day here, 12C, windy and pouring down heavy misty rain. Anyone who dares go outdoors is in full winter clothes

At this stage I'm not sure if you're lying or losing it!

Another super day in the south east, it's hard to imagine such a variance over a prolonged period of time between two parts of a county the size of Ireland.

Trust me (as someone else who loves further North). It's been pretty dire for weeks. Lights on in the house after 6pm type stuff. Grey and drab a lot of days. Yesterday was like a miracle. One day of summer like sunshine and a temp close to 20c. Seemed like another world

Meteorite58

Gavlor wrote: »

At this stage I'm not sure if you're lying or losing it!

Another super day in the south east, it's hard to imagine such a variance over a prolonged period of time between two parts of a county the size of Ireland.

Mod Note: Please refrain from making such remarks.

glightning

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

glightning wrote: »

That huge cold pool of water temps in the north Atlantic really needs to call it a day a disappear off somewhere far away from here. It surely aids cyclogenesis in the north Atlantic by helping to increase the temperature gradiant. I believe it has played a significant role in the sub par summers of recent years. It needs to go ASAP!

I'm not sure if Atlantic SSTs really have the much influence of summer weather patterns in general. Look at the Atlantic SST deviations back in July 2007 for example, which was a very wet summer month over much of the country:






I do think if there is any influence to be had regarding Atlantic temps on weather patterns, then it isn't just to cold pool to the west (which is more near average than cool or cold) that we should be looking at, but also the very much warmer sea temps to our north, which have been there for a good few years now. Latest analysis (anomalies) from the UK Met:



Until the temps in this region of the Atlantic shift back to more normal, then I do think that we'll be looking at another lame winter ahead with weakened storm depressions and insipid cold, snowy spells from the north.

I still think it plays a role... it cools the low level air above it and creates an increased temp gradient between the warm air at the Azores and cool air due to cool sea temps near Greenland. This promotes low pressure system formation or cyclogenesis of existing lows. Also, any air coming to Ireland from that direction is going to be cooler than it would have been if sea temps were average or warm.

Regarding warm temps and wet conditions, well yes, there is always the chance for that given the air is going to be warmer and therefore hold more moisture.

Whether Ireland gets that moisture is down to the whole interconnected pattern, and as you say there are other mechanisms at play such as the warm waters to our North.

Overall, I still think the sea temp anomalies are driving the direction of the jetstream (and hence the LP systems).

Of course, we must be realistic.. the geography dictates the climate. We cannot get away from the fact that the jetstream has always and will always be blasting away near our shores. Neither can we change the fact that we are at the eastern edge of a huge ocean, with only a tiny land mass that struggles to dry any air out, and at a latitude of 50 to 55 degrees north where the suns insolation is diluted significantly over a wide area and therefore is much kiss effective at evaporating any moisture in the air.

enfant terrible

glightning wrote: »

Of course, we must be realistic.. the geography dictates the climate. We cannot get away from the fact that the jetstream has always and will always be blasting away near our shores. Neither can we change the fact that we are at the eastern edge of a huge ocean, with only a tiny land mass that struggles to dry any air out, and at a latitude of 50 to 55 degrees north where the suns insolation is diluted significantly over a wide area and therefore is much kiss effective at evaporating any moisture in the air.

Could the jetstream ever move up further north?

Has it always been in its current position?

sryanbruen

enfant terrible wrote: »

Could the jetstream ever move up further north?

Has it always been in its current position?

Plenty of times it has been. One recent notable occurrence was in July 2013.

enfant terrible

sryanbruen wrote: »

Plenty of times it has been. One recent notable occurrence was in July 2013.

I mean more of a permanent move away from us(is that very unlikely?), would that result in a higher chance of Azores high covering us in the Summer months?

JCX BXC

enfant terrible wrote: »

I mean more of a permanent move away from us(is that very unlikely?), would that result in a higher chance of Azores high covering us in the Summer months?

Not in our lifetime, I'm sure it'll happen eventually, however eventually could be tens of thousands of years.

enfant terrible

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not in our lifetime, I'm sure it'll happen eventually, however eventually could be tens of thousands of years.

Just had a quick google

"Since 2007, and particularly in 2012 and early 2013, the jet stream has been at an abnormally low latitude across the UK, lying closer to the English Channel, around 50°N rather than its more usual north of Scotland latitude of around 60°N.[not in citation given]

However, between 1979 and 2001, it has been found that the average position of the jet stream has been moving northward at a rate of 2.01 kilometres (1.25 mi) per year across the Northern Hemisphere."

Excellent its moving North at a rate of 2 km per year, can someone calculate how long before its out of range, allowing that lovely Azores High over us? Or even just the south of Ireland where I am

JCX BXC

Basing a forecast on the entire change of a climate based in 22 years of data isn't wise. Really I don't think we've even near enough data to know what way the climate changes in, as it is always changing.

Which is infact one of my major gripes about Climate Change and Global Warming being used as such negative terms, these two things have occured all the time (or global cooling) throughout the history of the planet earth. These things are natural, although you cannot deny the effect modern humans have had, these terms I don't think for it. Slightly off topic but not completely.