Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

glightning

Sorry, slightly off topic. But if you are interested, you can watch a live thunderstorm from Parma, Italy right now. Some nice lightning on there :-
https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/emilia-romagna/parma/piazza-garibaldi.html

glightning

This is what I do in summer when there is a thunderstorm drought lol! I use streaming webcams on the continent combined with lightningmaps.org to track where the most intense lightning is, and then I squat there lol!!

squarecircles

Could the building heat next week go out with a BANG!!!

jimmynokia

Recent strike in kilcock area.

pad199207

jimmynokia wrote: »

Recent strike in kilcock area.

Didnt hear anything

highdef

Nor did I. I live not too far from Kilcock and was home at the time

Iancar29

highdef wrote: »

Nor did I. I live not too far from Kilcock and was home at the time

pad199207 wrote: »

Didnt hear anything

jimmynokia wrote: »

Recent strike in kilcock area.

Yeah the sferic system is not always 100% accurate. Because its all to do with AM radio band they are susceptible to interference.

PukkaStukka

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yeah the sferic system is not always 100% accurate. Because its all to do with AM radio band they are susceptible to interference.

Someone probably threw a switch up at Clarkstown

pad199207

Lines of castellanus over Kildare. Some instability out there, pressure way too high

pad199207

Some thundery interest showing for Wednesday

squarecircles

Meteorite58

Tues has some of the parameters in the W ,SW, S but the all too important precipitation is not really showing up over land, some running up the W coast all right, DLS is poor but looks quite humid with good lapse rates ( maybe late evening, overnight ? ).



Weds looks good all right with plenty of instability as a trough passes over the country. Convective charts look promising.

Meteorite58

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017

ISSUED 19:44 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Under broad upper ridging on Monday, strong surface heating will yield CAPE values of 1,000-1,500 Jkg-1 with dewpoints typically in the mid-high teens Celsius. The mid-level (~600mb) nose is less-pronounced compared with Sunday, especially the farther north one goes as heights aloft are relatively lower, especially later in the day, which suggests an increased likelihood for deep convection to occur - though probably not widespread enough to warrant a SLGT for now. Some reasonable shear too with favourable hodographs allowing perhaps some organisation.


Forecast profiles are quite dry, but given some low-level wind convergence a few isolated heavy showers / thunderstorms may develop in the late afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that do manage to form would be a capable of producing frequent lightning - but the main risk being local flash flooding (given slow storm motion and PWAT of 30-35mm, suggesting 30-40mm may fall in a short space of time) and large hail locally up to 2.0cm in diameter. This setup is then borderline SVR, and may require an upgrade if confidence improves.


Not much moisture in the air but possibly a few showers showing up towards evening.

pad199207

Good morning... have we seen the forecast from Met Eireann for tomorrow evening! :-o

pad199207

Cap in place today is too strong for storms to fire I'd imagine

pad199207

25c
DP 20c

If the cap brakes..... BOOM

Danno

25.5c here with a 17.7c dew point. Warmer and more humid today, despite high level haze.

Meteorite58

Can see high elevated convection moving inland from Kerry. No mention of rainfall from Met Eireann. Can see virga trails from some of the clouds .

cute geoge

ANY opinion if we will get showers in north kerry tomorrow because i have hay fit to bale .
Will we escape ???

Danno

cute geoge wrote: »

ANY opinion if we will get showers in north kerry tomorrow because i have hay fit to bale .
Will we escape ???

Very hard to say, such is the nature of thunderstorms that they are very hit and miss in this kind of setup. If you're close to the coast, say within 10 or 15 miles you'd have a better chance of escaping owing to the sea breeze keeping convection inland.

squarecircles

met.ie mentioned this morning the threat of isolated thunderstorms breaking out in the south tomorrow evening,then spreading northwards during the night,these details have now been removed from the forecast.

Hal1

Some mesmerizing cells over spain. If they would just all form an orderly northerly line now for a few thousand km's, we'd be in business .

vickers209

looks like uk going to get all fun again Wednesday
http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/severe-thunderstorms-over-the-uk-on-wednesday-june-21/:mad:

pad199207

Skies have all the hallmarks of thunder potential this evening.

PukkaStukka

pad199207 wrote: »

Skies have all the hallmarks of thunder potential this evening.

It looks thundery alright but the heat has all but disappeared with the freshening wind

Meteorite58

IMO Good conditions tomorrow for lightning but looks like the most if not all of it will be off the W and NW coast as a trough creates instability going into the evening and overnight into Weds morning . Winds will be E'ly and SE'ly in the SW keeping the bulk of the weather off shore. Could get a few showers running up along the coast in the late afternoon early evening from the heat of the day and the humidity.

The Lightning Index chart has proven quite handy as a guide to the amount of activity to expect.

pad199207

Tomorrow pretty much the same as today really. Strong cap in place. However possibly some light shows up the Irish Sea tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning.

Rougies

pad199207 wrote: »

Tomorrow pretty much the same as today really. Strong cap in place. However possibly some light shows up the Irish Sea tomorrow night and early Wednesday morning.

Yeah it's looking like the east coast will be teased by Welsh imports dying out in the Irish Sea again. Decent potential for the east Wednesday evening though.

Estofex for 7am Tues to 7am Wed:

Oscar Bravo

2311 met eireann update

Tuesday will be another warm and mainly dry day with sunny spells and variable cloud. However, there is the risk of an isolated sharp shower breaking out later in the day, particularly in the northwest. Highest temperatures will range from 18 to 22 degrees in Ulster, Connacht and along Irish Sea coastal fringes but reaching 23 to 26 degrees elsewhere. There will be a moderate east to northeast breeze.

Outlook

Wednesday: It will be another warm day with hazy sunshine and highest temperatures of 20 to 26 degrees. However the heat and humidity will set off a number of heavy thundery showers during the day and these will continue to occur into the evening time as well.

Rougies

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

2311 met eireann update

Tuesday will be another warm and mainly dry day with sunny spells and variable cloud. However, there is the risk of an isolated sharp shower breaking out later in the day, particularly in the northwest. Highest temperatures will range from 18 to 22 degrees in Ulster, Connacht and along Irish Sea coastal fringes but reaching 23 to 26 degrees elsewhere. There will be a moderate east to northeast breeze.

Outlook

Wednesday: It will be another warm day with hazy sunshine and highest temperatures of 20 to 26 degrees. However the heat and humidity will set off a number of heavy thundery showers during the day and these will continue to occur into the evening time as well.

That's quite strong language from Met E regarding thunderstorm potential. Hope they haven't jinxed it.