Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

PukkaStukka

Gonzo wrote: »

I'll make a safe prediction for my area, there will be no thunder or lightning here as usual with the UK mainland taking the lions share of all the fun.

Couldn't agree more. The more we expect, the lesser the probability.

George Sunsnow

The BBC news 24 forecast just now has the Welsh and Cornish storms growing and drifting across the Irish Sea to affect many areas from Wexford to Dublin including Casa Gonzo:D

Donegal Storm

These setups are always a nowcast, even a forecast 6 hours or can be totally wrong, all part of what makes them exciting. Safe to say there won't be much here in Donegal but I'll still be watching with interest

pad199207

Reminds me of July 2014 setup!

BBC Forecast has all hell breaking loose over Leinster on wednesday morning

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

Reminds me of July 2014 setup!

BBC Forecast has all hell breaking loose over Leinster on wednesday morning

I saw that at lunchtime
850 temps over the Celtic sea and Wexford at 6am of 15c! as the low moves up
That's survive and grow territory for storms
We'd want to be very unlucky to avoid this,even more unlucky than usual because it looks like not only could UK storms head this way but they'll be traveling up a celtic and Irish Sea with an athmosphere containing an unusual amount of energy,quite potent if you get me?

Reckless Abandonment

Every time I'm away on holidays Ireland gets some decent thunder and lightning, so keep the faith lads I'm in cypress:)

Jpmarn

We're due to have a pretty sharp cold front crossing Ireland on Wednesday from late morning to afternoon. At 850 mb level temperatures falling from over 15c to under 5c. Would that be a recipe for imbedded thunderstorms in the front?

giveitholly

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The BBC news 24 forecast just now has the Welsh and Cornish storms growing and drifting across the Irish Sea to affect many areas from Wexford to Dublin including Casa Gonzo:D

Will this just be a Leinster event or could some stray up over Munster?

pad199207

Large cb clouds going up over the Wicklow mountains

George Sunsnow

giveitholly wrote: »

Will this just be a Leinster event or could some stray up over Munster?

It's a radar watch tomorrow evening but yes I'd say some will
Currently it looks like Leinster mainly pushing north north west

The heat is building some cb'a over the Wicklow mountains today which are fighting a loosing battle with the high pressure cap
Photo attached
The clouds that build up tomorrow evening should be mighty

glightning

I'm with Gonzo on this one. There has been some really superb potential setups in recent years (let's not even go there with the -10 lifted index scenario that was a total nightmare for us last July!!!!!). 
Even the plumes this year have just failed to deliver with the all too familiar cluster of storms off the NW coast moving up to the west of Ireland, a few clipping the far south and then immediately dying out, whilst in the meantime England gets a battering (e.g. Plymouth back in June). My heart has been broken too many times!
Whilst a storm is a storm and I'll take one at any time of the day rather than nothing, it's really in the hours of darkness (at this time of year, 00:00 to 03:00) that I want to see one. That's what a summer storm should be. Lucky peeps in England can pretty much count on at least one such event each year, and in the US it's obviously something you get pretty often.
Being up here in the southern part of NI, the chances of any storms during the period I want them is currently marginal (as predicted by the latest short range model runs). They don't show anything really until after 3:00am - and more like 6:00am which is not what I want at all. But crucially, a few DO fire up cells close to the border by around midnight or 1:00am. So there is some possibility that storms might occur during the night hours.
As always, even the short range / high res models can be out with timing and location of cells. That's certainly been the case over the past few years. And with that said, I will be watching and hoping for convection to get underway over Ireland hopefully in a better way than the models currently think it will. 
Fingers, legs, toes, and eyes all crossed then!!!! But I'll remain on the pessimistic side for now ;-)

George Sunsnow

Could be a busy thread overnight tomorrow and into wenesday hopefully?

Gonzo

I hope im wrong but in my area at least Thunerstorms just rarely ever happen. Sure we've had the odd very isolated thundery shower (not even one per year) but a few claps of thunder and a flash of sheet lightning doesn't really make a thunderstorm.

The last major thunderstorm we had in this area was summer of 1985 when I was a child. Since then barely anything, nothing that I can remember, perhaps the most intense was a 20 minute thunderstorm over a decade ago.

You would think we would have had something decent as we have had plenty of warm/hot to cool events. In the UK the hot weather nearly always comes to an explosive and very exciting end, while here it rarely amounts to more than just a drop in temperatures and rain from the west.

PukkaStukka

The 7pm forecast on RTE1 will undoubtedly have a few tails wagging. The words "thunder" and "thundery" were used. Perhaps there will be an event but I can't help but feel some areas will get something and quite a few others won't. Pot luck as they say!

George Sunsnow

There's a lot of thunder potential tomorrow night into wenesday morning Gonzo,I agree it could end up disappointing
There's certainly potential for a lot of rain
We're usually in a good position from Arklow south into co Wexford in these scenarios
It reminds me of the potential of June 25th 2009 which was a bullseye

pad199207

Looking like south midlands and into mid and north Leinster looking areas most at risk of thundery activity

George Sunsnow

The June 25th 2009 storms were Welsh imports that mainly affected the south east from 11pm to 6am
They show up on the met Eireann lightning radar history on the 25th as in the Celtic sea approaching but show up as a core of purple on the map on the 26th as to where they occurred
That was a very noisy night in Arklow

See attached

Meteorite58

According to the AROME heavy rainfall arrives in the SE around 21.00 spreading up the E and the midlands into the N and NE, more showers arriving early Weds morning,. HIRLAM similar timing and track, ARPEGE has more rain in the midlands/ W and arriving later

George Sunsnow

Meteorite58 wrote: »

According to the AROME heavy rainfall arrives in the SE around 21.00 spreading up the E and the midlands into the N and NE, more showers arriving early Weds morning,. HIRLAM similar timing and track, ARPEGE has more rain in the midlands/ W and arriving later

Thanks lad, should be, lots of lightning with that,Mr Sunsnow will report tomorrow night as that initial wave looks directly over me

pedigree 6

Right there's been loads of Ying here.:)
Now for the Yang part.:p

The british Met Office are not giving any thunderstorms coming up over south leinster. Not up till Wednesday 5 a.m anyway. Maybe cells after that?

JCX BXC

The British Met Office aren't forecasting any precip whatsoever until 5am on, nevermind thunderstorms! Massive difference from what ME are saying.

glightning

If you play the Arome short range model Simulated IR forecast here :-

http://wxcharts.eu/?model=arome®ion=eng&chart=satcloud&run=12&step=028&plottype=4&lat=54.500&lon=-6.200&skewtstep=0

... it pretty much plays out the way I fear might happen, and to be honest, is the most likely outcome. Cells firing over Southern England, and just a shield of cloud - or - Anvil shields heading in our direction. The usual bust.

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

The British Met Office aren't forecasting any precip whatsoever until 5am on, nevermind thunderstorms! Massive difference from what ME are saying.

They are on BBC news 24 all day and still are
Pretty much very similar to met Éireann

glightning

The BBC no longer use the Met Office for their forecasts. They are supplied by Meteogroup as of March this year.

The forecast posted earlier featuring Alex Deakin from the Met Office (ex BBC forecaster) is from YouTube.

It's important to note that the Met Office are now totally independent from the BBC.

George Sunsnow

I actually forgot about that fact
But I do know one thing,I would never discount those BBC forecast graphics when it comes to precipitation,they are usually very accurate

glightning

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I actually forgot about that fact
But I do know one thing,I would never discount those BBC forecast graphics when it comes to precipitation,they are usually very accurate

Being up here in NI with the BBC as a main provider, I've found their accuracy to be worse this year. They have frequently got the timing of rain events quite wrong.

Many a day they have said it will rain all morning / afternoon with the exact opposite being the actual situation. It's at a point were the average person here mentions it.

Harry Palmr

Poor old Alex Deakin, an audience of thousands.....

George Sunsnow

glightning wrote: »

Being up here in NI with the BBC as a main provider, I've found their accuracy to be worse this year. They have frequently got the timing of rain events quite wrong.

Many a day they have said it will rain all morning / afternoon with the exact opposite being the actual situation. It's at a point were the average person here mentions it.

Funny enough,I don't usually find that at all
I do find a lot of giving out about forecasting in general though because it rains in one area but not in another,as if a pin point accuracy is demanded
It was ever thus
Matter of opinion,let's see what tomorrow night actually brings anyway

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

I hope im wrong but in my area at least Thunerstorms just rarely ever happen. Sure we've had the odd very isolated thundery shower (not even one per year) but a few claps of thunder and a flash of sheet lightning doesn't really make a thunderstorm.

The last major thunderstorm we had in this area was summer of 1985 when I was a child. Since then barely anything, nothing that I can remember, perhaps the most intense was a 20 minute thunderstorm over a decade ago.

You would think we would have had something decent as we have had plenty of warm/hot to cool events. In the UK the hot weather nearly always comes to an explosive and very exciting end, while here it rarely amounts to more than just a drop in temperatures and rain from the west.

Do you not remember the summer of 2000 when thunderstorms pushed up from the south (I think it was August) and there was spectacular lightning and really loud claps of thunder one night. Maybe it petered out north of Dublin but it really was amazing.

MJohnston

Ah sure you're all forgetting the glorious thundersnow of 2010