Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

Meteorite58

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-18

Upper ridge over the British Isles on Tuesday will slowly drift east, as a negatively-tilted upper trough approaches from the Atlantic. On its forward side, poleward advection of a high WBPT airmass will occur from western Europe into southern then central Britain. Falling heights as upper trough approaches, combined with subtle shortwaves, will provide the focus for destabilisation of the mid-levels, with significant CAPE available from approx 850mb upwards by Tuesday evening/night.

Some elevated thunderstorms could also form over the Republic of Ireland on Tuesday night, through a combination of advection of existing cells from SW England / SW Wales and new cells developing in-situ, generally moving towards the NW.



Plenty of potential earlier in the day but decreases towards evening by the time the rain bearing cloud.



Wouldn't be surprised to see some activity in the W tomorrow night/ early Weds morning with possible downpours. Who knows might grow a few cells over here as well from the high temps and increasing humid air and instability.









Weds has potential also for some activity in the afternoon / early evening mainly in the E .

Comhrá

I remain sceptical for t/storm activity for anywhere on the island of Ireland with the possible exception of the extreme SE.

I've watched these marginal set-ups for years now, with continental airflows competing with Atlantic fronts somewhere over Ireland and it's practically always a win for the Atlantic regime and everything playing out as a damp squib.

I'm not a gambling man but I'm predicting exactly the same scenario again this time around.

pad199207

Comhra wrote: »

I remain sceptical for t/storm activity for anywhere on the island of Ireland with the possible exception of the extreme SE.

I've watched these marginal set-ups for years now, with continental airflows competing with Atlantic fronts somewhere over Ireland and it's practically always a win for the Atlantic regime and everything playing out as a damp squib.



I'm not a gambling man but I'm predicting exactly the same scenario again this time around.

Yup that's exactly what will happen. Storms up the Irish Sea, Wales and C England.

A few rogue cells up the west coast of Ireland.

Country is cursed

glightning

pad199207 wrote: »

Comhra wrote: »

I remain sceptical for t/storm activity for anywhere on the island of Ireland with the possible exception of the extreme SE.

I've watched these marginal set-ups for years now, with continental airflows competing with Atlantic fronts somewhere over Ireland and it's practically always a win for the Atlantic regime and everything playing out as a damp squib.



I'm not a gambling man but I'm predicting exactly the same scenario again this time around.

Yup that's exactly what will happen. Storms up the Irish Sea, Wales and C England.

A few rogue cells up the west coast of Ireland.

Country is cursed

Hit the nail on the head! Of course it still won't stop us from now (hope) casting tomorrow evening though!

pad199207

glightning wrote: »

Hit the nail on the head! Of course it still won't stop us from now (hope) casting tomorrow evening though!

The front crossing the country on Wednesday morning might cause some further interest.

Current convection and sferics out there at the moment shows it will be fairly potent as it clashes with the warmer air

Donegal Storm

If there's one thing I've learned from these setups is that they never play out as expected, all it takes is one storm to behave differently than modelled and it throws everything else off completely.

I recall about 5 years ago living in the UK there was a perfect setup, CAPE off the charts, LI around -10 and plenty of heat, models were showing really intense rainfall and everyone was anticipating big fireworks but some high cloud from a decaying storm overnight in France spilled across the channel and kept temperatures down so there wasn't a drop of rain anywhere. Even 6 hours out models were showing widespread storms.

For what it's worth, WRF is showing similar with intense rain from the south east spreading northwards, should be interesting radar watching

JCX BXC

Jaysus Cork airport has some forecast for tomorrow!

Probability 40%, from 10pm-1am, 200m visibility, fog and Heavy Thunderstorm rain.

Shannon also has a Probability 30% chance of moderate thunderstorm rain from 10pm-1am

Knock has the same as Shannon except from 11pm

DOCARCH

Anything exciting looking in Biscay looks to be heading north east (into the UK)? Can't see much happening in the next 18 hours unless homegrown?

PukkaStukka

Things are banging away nicely over north Biscay / Brest peninsula. Given the track of this storm, the south coast of the UK will get clattered by it.

KingdomRushed

The www.met.ie forecast seems to be open ended about the possibility of thunder for Ireland later, without being too specific. Any thoughts from the posters on here as to what we might expect? As the previous post noted there's a lot of lightning in the Bay of Biscay, but it would appearing to be heading toward Cornwall currently.

Danno

Some beefy showers forecast for this area in the small hours. Hopefully they'll be still electrified.

pad199207

I think if something half decent was going to verify Met Eireann would or will issue a Yellow Weather Warning

Danno

Thunderstorms have developed around 50 miles WSW of the Scilly Isles off SW Cornwall. These seem to be moving towards our southern coast:

http://en.sat24.com/HD/en/gb/visual

Just above the "C" in UTC.

Also, some convection going up over Kilkenny County and a little over Westmeath County also...?

pad199207

Cells firing south of Ireland now on a more Northerly trajectory

George Sunsnow

pad199207 wrote: »

I think if something half decent was going to verify Met Eireann would or will issue a Yellow Weather Warning

But that usually only happens after something has started to be honest

Those Brittany storms are part of the disturbance that supposed to grow moving north,so the obvious thing today is to keep looking due south and south east
They were few at 7am when I first looked and grew as they headed north

Simon Gruber Says

Been decent surface heating all day so far in the east, will hopefully help things along.

Storm 10

Are going to get any of these storm in the West, ME are forecasting very heavy thundery showers for Connacht.

KingdomRushed

pad199207 wrote: »

Cells firing south of Ireland now on a more Northerly trajectory

Yes, lightning has appeared now in the Celtic Sea, due south of Ireland, nothing yet on the scale of the storm south of Plymouth, but certainly worth watching!

Danno

A good clear slot approaching the south coast, which should allow lots of heating during the afternoon hours when it's warmest anyway - providing much needed energy for the line of storms developing behind the clear slot. This could be the lucky break we need!

pedigree 6

Bear in mind this was recorded 2 hours ago.
Looking at the old reliable Met Office forecast?
It looks like no thunderstorms for us in wexford till tomorrow morning.
The forecast has convection building up over the Wicklow mts alright and effecting Dublin and further north tonight.

JCX BXC

Looks great for my part of the country at least, hopefully we get this after the flop of a day we just had here.

squarecircles

Latest from met eireann on twitter.

Severe storms moving north from the continent.thunderstorms possible for Ireland tonight and tomorrow.

George Sunsnow

Henwin

Can any weather enthusiasts give me advice please, I'm in north Kerry and hoping to save hay, but fear we might get rain so if that's true I need to change to silage instead before the rain comes, is there a change of north Kerry getting rain but fore Thursday, thanks

Danno

Henwin wrote: »

Can any weather enthusiasts give me advice please, I'm in north Kerry and hoping to save hay, but fear we might get rain so if that's true I need to change to silage instead before the rain comes, is there a change of north Kerry getting rain but fore Thursday, thanks

A cold front is approaching from the west so there will be rain, heavy at times - and probably in your region between 8am and 1pm tomorrow. You may also get a shower this evening.

JCX BXC

Henwin wrote: »

Can any weather enthusiasts give me advice please, I'm in north Kerry and hoping to save hay, but fear we might get rain so if that's true I need to change to silage instead before the rain comes, is there a change of north Kerry getting rain but fore Thursday, thanks

Ah here, you will get rain before Thursday, that's fairly certain, check the forecast!

pedigree 6

JCX BXC wrote: »

Ah here, you will get rain before Thursday, that's fairly certain, check the forecast!

Heavy rain tonight.
Bale this evening.

pad199207

Oh to be in Cherbourg right now

stooge

Channel islands currently an interesting place to be!

Nice webcam here:

http://www.watersplashjersey.com/surf/splash-cam.aspx

pad199207

Getting a little busier in the celtic sea now