Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

Gonzo

nagdefy wrote: »

Serious lack of thunderstorms in the last 25 years or so. Bar heavy thunderstorms all day in Dublin around 24/25 August 2000 and hail and lightning in mid October in Dublin 2003 i've witnessed nothing worthwhile in Ireland.

Back as a kid in the 80s it was so different. 1983 had thunderstorm after thunderstorm in June and July, one huge one the Sunday of the Munster football final. !984 had some also. Of course 25/26 July 1985 when my brother's bullock was killed by lightening. He was 10 and we'd both have a couple of animals dad would give us. Then 29th June 1986. Heavy thunderstorm, missed the 3rd place play off between Belgium and France in the Mexico World Cup. Thankfully the electricity came back an hour before the following days World Cup final, West Germany v Argentina and Maradona.

So strange nothing like those storms now.

I totally agree with this, basically since the great thunderstorm of 1985, there may have been 1 thunderstorm and I can't really remember the year and it was much, much weaker than the 1985 event. What does it take to get a proper thunderstorm in Ireland?.

Basically 32 years since I last remembered a proper thunderstorm. The southern half of the UK gets these annualy and most of Europe gets them several times a year. I put it down to never enough heat in Ireland, the atlantic influence takes over too quickly and we just don't have enough landmass and are not near any large landmass. The UK has France, Belgium and the Netherlands to feed off.

nagdefy

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/July1985_Thunderstorm.PDF

Always worth a read!

Even historically we had major thunderstorms like 'The Thunder and Lightning All Ireland'. The hurling final of 1939 between Cork and Kilkenny with KK winning by a point.

When Laois played Tipp in the 1949 all-ire hurling final there was some lightning at match time and a downpour.

Larbre34

Gonzo wrote: »

What does it take to get a proper thunderstorm in Ireland?

A very very unlikely confluence of event. The Met É report on that 1985 storm outbreak gives clear detail of the contrast between air masses which contributed to the activity. Not a million miles off the synoptic situation we have this evening

fraxinus1

We are down in West Cork for a few days holiday. Feels very heavy this evening but based on what I have read here so far we are unlikely to have any storms tonight. That's a shame.

JCX BXC

DP of 17c here ATM, highest I've seen in years.

PukkaStukka

Granted I was only a teenager then but I remember that the run-up to 1985 saw several days of extreme humidity and sporadic thunderstorms. You kind of knew that the weather was storing itself up for a bad tempered showdown and it certainly didn't disappoint.

I don't think we can compare the current scenario with 1985 just yet

pad199207

Those storms south of Ireland have literally not moved all afternoon

George Sunsnow

The upper air flow (the way the clouds are moving) over head in Arklow is from the South South east now heading north north west
Simply a perfect direction for imports from Cornwall,Wales and the Celtic sea later ,bring it on I hear you say ?

pad199207

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The upper air flow (the way the clouds are moving) over head in Arklow is from the South South east now heading north north west
Simply a perfect direction for imports from Cornwall,Wales and the Celtic sea later ,bring it on I hear you say ?

I dunno, i think everything is getting pushed eastwards as the atlantic front nears

DOCARCH

pad199207 wrote: »

I dunno, i think everything is getting pushed eastwards as the atlantic front nears

That's what it looks like to me too!

glightning

Thi

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The upper air flow (the way the clouds are moving) over head in Arklow is from the South South east now heading north north west
Simply a perfect direction for imports from Cornwall,Wales and the Celtic sea later ,bring it on I hear you say ?

Thing is though... the storms over Cornwall were already knocking on it's door at 9am this morning and they haven't really moved north much. Activity seems to be waning too. 
My eyes are on the cluster of what looks like towering cumulus or AcCas that is directly south of Ireland. The most up to date SAT loop is showing some development within that and the northerly movement seems decent for now.

Meteorite58

Have used this Lightning Index before a few times and has been a good guide to potential.

The first not showing much activity in Ireland going into the early hours.



Better chance early Weds morning perhaps going into the day

JCX BXC

The ME Short Range forecast has heavy rain over West Waterford/East Cork.....10 minutes ago.

Safe to say we can write that off.

George Sunsnow

Ah ye pair of reverse psychologists:D

glightning

p.s. I'm up here in the southern part of NI. So what I'm really hoping for is for that cluster to push into the south and then for cells to fire ahead of that further north (say Dublin area) and then track into NI overnight.

highdef

Looks like cells are beginning to form not very far off the Waterford coast now. This "might" be the beginning.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/ESBNetworks/status/887343680654381056

George Sunsnow

glightning wrote: »

Thi

Thing is though... the storms over Cornwall were already knocking on it's door at 9am this morning and they haven't really moved north much. Activity seems to be waning too. 
My eyes are on the cluster of what looks like towering cumulus or AcCas that is directly south of Ireland. The most up to date SAT loop is showing some development within that and the northerly movement seems decent for now.

That's where my eyes are too and at South Wales and the Celtic sea
The storms over Cornwall spawned in NE Biscay around 6am this morning and grew as they moved north with the instability that is to be fair only just arriving into the Celtic sea and Wales
I have watched them from their start

pad199207

very dark here in Kildare at the moment, the clearance to the south has an almost pinkish hue to it

Meteorite58

Yes will it sustain and move in over the S or SE or will we somethng in the W before that.

George Sunsnow

It's good to see ESB networks prepare like that
I've seen them actually switch out entire networks down here during storms to save the system
I've BBC one South west on here at the moment,the thunder is the third item on the local news being aired shortly,the clips they showed in the headlines of the lightning looked severe

Calina

Comments here have a bunch of photos from Brittany.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10155371175680295&id=270122530294

8500 households without electricity atm and apparently 15000 lightning strikes during that storm.

SEPT 23 1989

Any idea of when it might arrive in Wexford?

glightning

If you look carefully at the sat animation above you can see the cluster in the Celtic sea is developing new cells on it's NW side. Now, take a look further NW and note how there appears to be a line of convection tilting in over Ireland. I'm talking about the line off the west coast than runs NW to SE, then a break, then the cluster of storms. I would be surprised to see that line push NE later this evening and for a line of storms to potentially fire along it.

glightning

I see an random sferic has occurred to the south of Cork recently on according to the sat loop

pad199207

sporadic strikes now off the coast of wexford down to cork

Rougies

Things pepping up off the south coast now. convection visible on satellite, radar returns intensifying and a couple of sferics closer to Ireland in the last few minutes.

squarecircles

Siobhan Ryan on rte weather mentioning potential for severe thunderstorms along the south Irish sea tonight.

George Sunsnow

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Any idea of when it might arrive in Wexford?

Probably between 9 and midnight

uck51js9zml2yt

The most important question is will it hit Dublin?