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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017
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The lightning in Cork last night.
NETWEATHER
I wonder will get any more today, good few strikes off the W coast overnight and as close as Galway Bay. No mention from Met Eireann so probably not expecting much.0 -
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We have had some impressive thunderstorms for the last week here in Eastern Europe. Heat during the day sets them off about now mid afternoon. Another one now rattling around to the south of us in Slovakia.
Some pictures taken of social media from Romania and Hungary.
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Early days yet so open to change but going by the GFS a chance for Thunder activity on Sat as and after a cold front goes through. CAPE, MUCAPE , Shear all looking like promoting convection in the post front area of shower activity , IMO.
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How do you read those charts is the red color the areas most likely for thunder storms
In my amateur and learning opinion at this early stage the charts would be indicating a possibility of having enough CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) and MUCAPE (Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy) and add wind shear in helping to promote updrafts and downdrafts and the TT Index is best explained here ! http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/302/ ( Just learning as I go on
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As for where a thunderstorm pops up depends on where the showers form and if they track long enough across the land, good temperatures would help also. I think in the afternoon early evening might be the best time. All depends on the timing of the frontal passage which will become more evident in the coming days. As I say no expert but keen to learn.0 -
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So the Midlands East and South most likely to get the heaviest rain tomorrow and localized thundery downpours possible in inland areas. according to Met Eireann. Around Waterford showing up to get the most rain on the Prediction charts as the front seems to pivot in that area during the afternoon. Big cloudscapes tomorrow.
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Day 2 Convective Outlook: Fri 12 May 2017
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 12 May 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 13 May 2017
ISSUED 20:23 UTC Thu 11 May 2017
ISSUED BY: Dan
As the frontal boundary continues to lift north on Friday, a slack surface pressure pattern will evolve near the low centre. Diurnal heating will generate several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE under a broad upper trough, with low-level wind convergence aiding the development of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and early evening, decaying after sunset. A low-end SLGT has been (reluctantly) issued, but some questions remain over both the extent of cloud cover and also a potential warm nose in the mid-levels that may limit convective depth, and hence markedly restrict lightning potential - it is possible very little lightning may occur in the SLGT area. Assuming that parcels can overcome this, then lightning will be possible, primarily within the SLGT area. Main focus will begin in the south of the SLGT area midday/early afternoon, and shift progressively north through the afternoon and early evening.
Over Ireland, the wrap-around occlusion may provide the focus for some embedded deep convection, particularly on the eastern flank with low-level convergence aiding lift. Some isolated or sporadic lightning may be possible, hence the inclusion of the LOW threat level here.0 -
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Still chasing a few sferics . No mention in Met Eireann or elsewhere but wondering could today's set up produce a few strikes. Cold front and trough passing over the country with a fair bit of instability and Theta E temps not bad ( IMO ) and also some but not a lot of wind shear.
Too much blanket cloud ? Any thoughts.
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Meteorite58 wrote: »Still chasing a few sferics . No mention in Met Eireann or elsewhere but wondering could today's set up produce a few strikes. Cold front and trough passing over the country with a fair bit of instability and Theta E temps not bad ( IMO ) and also some but not a lot of wind shear.
Too much blanket cloud ? Any thoughts.
well spotted, couple of strikes just over limerick there now, according to lightning maps0 -
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This discussion has been closed.
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