Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

Meteorite58

Mt mentions in his forecast today widespread scattered showers on Thurs /Fri , some heavy and thundery with possible hail as a LP drifts across Ireland slowly.

So looking at a low pressure originating from around Greenland with an airmass drawn down from Northern regions and relatively low 850 hPa temperatures.

Would convergence be a factor in supporting cape as light winds turn cyclonic ( which at present looks promising, but aware it is early yet ) and mid and upper level temperatures being cold with no inversion layer in being a factor here in aiding convection and the formation and maintaining of hail and thunder clouds ?

Iancar29

Yeah Wed-Sat has a classic cold uppers, pulse type storms setup. Nothing too exciting with the lack of a jet streak about but interesting nonetheless.

jimmynokia

Well a mention on the RTE news weather for thunderstorms. Let's hope.

pedigree 6

Hardly be any tonight?
There's a fairly beefy looking thing heading for Waterford atm according to the radar.

Gaoth Laidir

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Hardly be any tonight?
There's a fairly beefy looking thing heading for Waterford atm according to the radar.

Met Éireann's aviation chart for 1 am tonight shows the frontal zone straggling Wexford and up the Irish Sea. The broader area encompassing this front covers the eastern half of the country and is giving generally rain/drizzle but isolated heavy rain/thunderstorms with embedded Cb. I can't post the chart for copyright reasons.

Iancar29

Limited instability today to warrant much interest. Tomorrow looks a bit better.

sparrowcar

Iancar29 wrote: »

Limited instability today to warrant much interest. Tomorrow looks a bit better.

Are ME airing on the side of caution with their forecast do you think?

Iancar29

sparrowcar wrote: »

Are ME airing on the side of caution with their forecast do you think?

No, they mention thundery downpours. There well could be the odd strike. But nothing beefy IMO. We would want better dew points and colder T500s.

Iancar29

Nicely sheared looking cell up near Omagh. Some strikes now detected up that way too.

pad199207

Potential looks a little better for tomorrow along with met eireanns forecast of a "high risk of thunder" in the east

pad199207

Cell over Kilkenny City sparking a bit

KKkitty

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Nice stuff heading for Bagnelstown Carlow. Looked like a weakening area but was already pritty beefy moving through KK and developed further. Produced some hail.

Hearing thunder here in Borris.

pad199207

Lovely shelf developing on the cell over Naas

Iancar29

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Nice stuff heading for Bagnelstown Carlow. Looked like a weakening area but was already pritty beefy moving through KK and developed further. Produced some hail.

Certainly a bit better than what i expected today .

pad199207

Shelf cloud over Naas

emo72

From lovely sun, to storm hitting Lucan now.

jimmynokia

Dublin 22 is looking dark right now

Super-Rush

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Nice stuff heading for Bagnelstown Carlow. Looked like a weakening area but was already pritty beefy moving through KK and developed further. Produced some hail.

Drove through Bagenalstown about an hour ago. Some very bad flooding and plenty of hail accumulation on the footpaths. A few houses could be in trouble i reckon.

I'd say it was pretty epic.

JCX BXC

Big cell with lots of strikes just west of Belfast now!

Iancar29

Was in prime position to catch some lightning. Just wasn't enough heat to fuel the cell that bit more.

jimmynokia

Watching this cell coming from nass. Ones hoping..... Sparks

Meteorite58

Well if today was forecast as a slight chance and produced that many sferics then tomorrow looks very interesting.

Netweather

Meteorite58

An idea of CAPE and MUCAPE tomorrow with very cold uppers and a plentiful supply of showers crossing the country. Working late today but when I was out could see quite a bit of vertical convection going on in the shape of Cumulus Castellanus , more of that I expect tomorrow in the Western half of the county as it moves inland and most activity predicted inland and on the Eastern side, that said could possibly get a few sparks here as well, even tonight some nice big clouds about ( primed for tomorrow:) )

Edit: Met Eireann saying Southern parts as well.

Meteorite58

Interesting simulation of predicted cloud development for tomorrow. Tasty looking.

highdef

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Interesting simulation of predicted cloud development for tomorrow. Tasty looking.

Never saw that predicted satellite animation.... Love it

Jpmarn

Looking at this future satellite animation it looks like the Limerick area would get the brunt of the thunderstorms this Thursday.

Gaoth Laidir

Only Belfast Aldergrove and City airports have a chance of thunderstorms in their TAFs for today. None of the Republic airports mentions it. I would expect that to change in the midday TAFs.

Aldergrove

TAF:
TAF AMD EGAA 180712Z 1807/1906 21006KT 9999 BKN004
BECMG 1807/1809 FEW012 SCT025
PROB30 TEMPO 1810/1813 7000 SHRA
PROB40 TEMPO 1813/1821 5000 +SHRA +TSRA BKN014 BKN020CB
PROB30 1903/1906 BKN010

pad199207

Already decent convection occurring here in Kildare

JCX BXC

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Only Belfast Aldergrove and City airports have a chance of thunderstorms in their TAFs for today. None of the Republic airports mentions it. I would expect that to change in the midday TAFs.

Aldergrove

Cork did yesterday, been removed today tho.

Wanderer78

pad199207 wrote:

Already decent convection occurring here in Kildare

How do you actually spot convection, what do you look for?