Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

Oneiric 3

7.8mm recorded between 4 & 5 pm at UCG (Newcastle)



Of which I am sure a large proportion of if falling in just a few minutes.

chris2007

Will Dublin get any thunderstorms this evening?

pad199207

Fair few strikes over Longford

Xenji

pad199207 wrote: »

Orange warning from ME for thunder for Leinster

Connaught and Ulster are mentioned in the warning as well, only valid till 20.00 though.

George Sunsnow

19 strikes a min near Longford currently
That's pretty bad
The squal line stretches from near Omagh all the way down to North Cork

Strikes later in the Dublin area are likely

M.T. Cranium

Should head mainly to north of Dublin which will be perhaps on the edge of the squall line around 7 p.m. -- worst of this will be in Westmeath, Offaly, Longford, Cavan, Meath, Louth and parts of NI. Fast moving, should be to the east coast by about 7:45 or 8:00 p.m. Close enough to Dublin/Kildare to include them in any warning but could be mainly north side event.

Oneiric 3

Wicklow Mts could aid thunder potential as the trough pushes into the area over the next hour or so.

pad199207

classic cell passed over Naas, seen a couple of flashes in the distance

Awaaf

Heavy rain in Deansgrange for last 20 mins in 2 bands. A bit squally (not too bad). Thought I got a glimpse of a flash but may have been mistaken.

snowjon

Cracking thunderstorm here just now - lightning and thunder aplenty - best storm for years here!
(Bangor, N. Ireland)

thomasj

All out at sea at this stage!

Some heavy showers in the city not long ago but now a breeze, it's cooler but blue skies!

Meteorite58

Lively evening.

Soccarboy11

Galway needs to start sharing some of its luck with the rest of us! :P

Meteorite58

Chance again tomorrow of isolated thunderstorms, looks like Northern half of the country and best chance more North again. To me doesn't look as potent as today's action.

highdef

Recent strike NW of Dunshaughlin......Gonzo???

DOCARCH

highdef wrote: »

Recent strike NW of Dunshaughlin......Gonzo???

He didn't do it!

Gonzo

highdef wrote: »

Recent strike NW of Dunshaughlin......Gonzo???

yep! was on a walk and heard it! Sky was very dark to my north-west and heard the bang, shower passed just north of here and still holding dry at the minute. First crack of thunder I've heard in over a year.

snowjon

Thunder and lightning here again this evening - not as good as yesterday evening - but quite unusual 2 days in a row

Psychologeeee

The day has gone from light and breezy to heavy and dull in Louth

thomasj

Sky looks very threatening in Dublin city .

highdef

thomasj wrote: »

Sky looks very threatening in Dublin city .

it's completely out of focus

degsie

thomasj wrote: »

Sky looks very threatening in Dublin city .

Blurry skies always look threatening.

Meteorite58

An interesting few days coming up watching to see if thunderstorms develop starting with early Sun morning maybe in the W and SW and moving across the country during the day.

Probably some bit of potential most days but next Weds will be the most interesting to me to watch unfold as the LP showing up on the models seems to be bringing a warm humid parcel of air with it into a cold upper environment possibly producing a lot of instability. Adding convergence and shear and plenty of humidity to the mix with what looks like could be a warm day just might produce something a bit out of the ordinary , or else just wishful thinking on my part

Meteorite58

Unless I'm mistaken , tomorrow would seem like plenty of potential of thunderstorms across Ireland , maybe from early morning in the W, SW, NW and perhaps the most activity as showers cross the country and mature in central counties and the Eastern side of the country. I'm wondering if diurnal heating is permitted with enough break in the clouds then tomorrow afternoon early evening might see a fair amount of activity.Converging winds as well seem to aid forcing. Any other thoughts?



Might even be some activity along the Atlantic seaboard from 01.00 to 08.00 ?

Meteorite58

Troughs and occluded front passing over the country tomorrow with widespread showers.

Quite breezy tomorrow, with clouds moving along. Met Eireann mentions mostly moderate breezes but gusty around downpours.





Cold mid and upper levels

LEIN

I never do well in these situations, the Wicklow Mountains kill anything coming from the west.
Like winter, I need an easterly.

Iancar29

LEIN wrote: »

I never do well in these situations, the Wicklow Mountains kill anything coming from the west.
Like winter, I need an easterly.

The Wicklow mountains actually induced activity the other day so it all depends on the conditions on the day.

Meteorite58

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-30



Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 30 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 31 Jul 2017

ISSUED 16:06 UTC Sat 29 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Once again, upper vortex will be centred to the west of Scotland on Sunday, with cool mid-levels covering the British Isles atop relatively warm SSTs and diurnal heating inland. Reasonably steep lapse rates exist with a build-up of 500-900 Jkg-1 CAPE, while several shortwaves will rotate around the parent upper low. Broadly cyclonic upper flow, although hints of some subtle ridging over SE-ern quarter of Britain and resultant subsidence will translate to late convective development (i.e. late afternoon into the evening) for the likes of Lincs / East Anglia / SE + CS England.


Elsewhere scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will become increasingly widespread as a shortwave trough phases with diurnal heating - for England and Wales, the risk is greatest over SW England and Wales during the morning, then slowly transferring NE-wards across the Midlands / Home Counties to eastern England by evening. Fewer showers likely in Kent/Surrey/Sussex given surface flow originating from the Channel - though a few (weakening) French exports may get close to the far SE at times.

Closer to the centre of the upper low, showers/thunderstorms across Eire / Northern Ireland / Scotland will likely be more pulse-type, particularly focused along zones of low-level wind convergence and hence slow storm motion could result in some locally high rainfall totals. A few funnel clouds / weak tornado may be possible with these cells.
For southern Britain, stronger DLS around the base of the upper low may aid some cell organisation, and while showers/thunderstorms will tend to be faster-moving compared to those farther north, elements of training over similar areas may occur, especially when combined with peninsula convergence from SW England - S Midlands - East Anglia, for example. Such convergence combined with some reasonable LLS could potentially result in an isolated tornado - though relatively high cloud bases (given temperature / dewpoint spread) reduce this risk somewhat. Locally strong wind gusts may occur near these showers.

Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter will be possible with any stronger cells.

pad199207

A few popcorn cells around tomorrow. Short lived. South Kildare West Wicklow might be favoured

Soccarboy11

These look like pretty high clouds, just rolling in off the coast of cork. Possible storm clouds, look like they are just going east of me though sadly. https://imgur.com/gallery/SvbB2