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Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-17
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 17 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Fri 18 Aug 2017
ISSUED 21:48 UTC Wed 16 Aug 2017
ISSUED BY: Dan
Cool air aloft associated with a shortwave moving NE-wards on Thursday will generate several hundred Jkg-1 CAPE when combined with diurnal heating - however, probably slightly out of sync (too fast) with the diurnal cycle, with a peak in potential around early afternoon over eastern England, and reducing from mid afternoon for most areas except NE Scotland where the pivoting trough will clear slowest. Nonetheless, a few scattered showers are likely, perhaps weakly-electrified, focussed along areas of wind convergence (such as peninsula convergence from SW England - East Anglia) but probably fairly isolated given quite dry profiles.
Lightning potential increases further overnight as the main longwave trough swings eastwards, accompanied by much steeper lapse rates. SLGTs have been issued where an increase in deep convection is expected, with showers becoming numerous, some producing hail and lightning. Gusty winds will also be possible with the most intense cells.
SE England also needs monitoring for the potential for an upgrade to SLGT during the late evening hours as the approaching trough induces a wave along the old frontal boundary over France, perhaps allowing some elevated instability to move NE-wards over the English Channel and potentially get close to parts of SE England. Confidence is not high enough for an upgrade at present, but may be added if necessary in any later updates.0 -
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British Isles
A highly dynamic situation evolves late in the period due to an intense trough moving into the British Isles. Its tropopause fault will cause lift and steep lapse rates will evolve. Low-level moisture will decrease from the west, however, warm sea surface will limit the moisture decrease somewhat. Currently, models do not indicate the development of a well-defined low-level convergence line that could support a convective line capable of producing severe wind gusts and tornadoes. Instead, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, capable of producing gusty to locally severe wind gusts and also a tornado is not ruled out. The situation must be monitored in the next model runs as severe potential can increase if linear organization of storms occurs.0 -
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Will see in the next few hours if thunderstorms break out in the W and NW and maybe a few down our way on the Kerry coast in the early hours. A couple of big showers going through here this evening, very localized.
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-20
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Mon 21 Aug 2017
ISSUED 20:17 UTC Sat 19 Aug 2017
ISSUED BY: Dan
Approaching Atlantic frontal system on Sunday, containing the remnants of Hurricane Gert, will be characterised by advection of a high WBPT airmass northeastwards across Ireland and western Britain. Very moist low- and mid-levels with saturated profiles will result in marginal instability and a very low risk of lightning, but some forcing aloft could release some elevated instability capable of producing some isolated / sporadic lightning - this perhaps more likely over the Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland during the evening and/or overnight, though in reality very little (if any) may occur. Main risk would be from localised flooding from any heavy downpours courtesy of embedded convective elements.0 -
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http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-08-21
Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 21 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 22 Aug 2017
ISSUED 20:45 UTC Sun 20 Aug 2017
ISSUED BY: Dan
Another day with very moist low- and mid-levels with saturated profiles resulting in marginal instability and a very low risk of lightning, but some forcing aloft could release some elevated instability capable of producing some isolated / sporadic lightning - this perhaps most likely over the Republic of Ireland / Northern Ireland, though in reality very little (if any) may occur. Main risk would be from localised flooding from any heavy downpours courtesy of embedded convective elements. Chance of some surface-based convection developing late afternoon / early evening within the warm sector should any sufficient gaps in the cloud cover develop over Ireland - given some decent shear, very low cloud bases and backed surface winds, this could produce a tornado (but is considered a very low probability of occurring).0 -
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Bust today with regards to sferics, plenty of heavy convective rain.
IMO Tomorrow looks like a better chance with an area of convergence up along the Western side of the country with the passage of a trough and what looks like a slow moving ( if not stalling ) Cold front in the W /NW, N moving into the warm, humid airmass. Good DLS and lower layer shear. Colder mid and upper temps move in from the W later in the night /early morning leading to more instability off the NW coast. We will see
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