Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

DOCARCH

Sferic showing up in Wicklow. http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

pad199207

Thunder in Roundwood about a half hour ago

Meteorite58

Would think that tomorrow has the possibility of producing thunderstorms ( the most this week ? ). Cape is good, upper temperatures look reasonably good and again showers to build late morning /into the afternoon mostly midlands, E and NE. Tomorrow sees more shear available as the day goes on so possibly helping development late afternoon/ early evening in the E and NE

Any other thoughts.














Met Eireann mentions some showers turning heavy tomorrow with the risk of hail and thunder.

Meteorite58

JCX BXC

Very good convection ongoing here in West Clare, rainrate of 47.2mm/h in the current shower with hail and very heavy rain.

No thunder sadly

JCX BXC

Heavy showers arriving out of absoutley nowhere, blue skies one second and then a big black cloud and hailstones.

Mental!

Meteorite58

Good few sferics already.

Iancar29

Another day of good parameters being "so close but yet so far" good instability for north leinster and Ulster. But then best DLS is in the SE. Hopefully get to go try catch the last of the storms somewhere later.

pad199207

Fairly decent storm west of mullingar

robclay26

thunder in Mullingar

lolie

Seen a nice big fork flash from a shower that beefed up as it went over Loughcrew heading northeast.
Some really loud rumbles from it as it moved onin the distance.

vickers209

just had a rumble of thunder outside Wicklow town

edit
2nd rumble rain just started

Bsal

Taken at 1500 from Skerries, lots of rumbles from it

pad199207

Violent cell heading for Monaghan Town. Radar returns are mad

lolie

pad199207 wrote: »

Violent cell heading for Monaghan Town. Radar returns are mad

Must be some deluge under it now.
Look at the radar returns.

Meteorite58

Detected sferics today so far.



Since 13.00

Hal1

@Lolie: looks like a hook echo, a bit.

Meteorite58

Will be watching with interest the weather towards the weekend with heat, precipitation and the jet in the vicinity and with shallow areas of LP passing close or over part of Ireland .

Oscar Bravo

Also a mention of thundery showers friday and the weekend on met eireann broadcast there.

squarecircles

Meteorite58

So to me it looks like a cold front stalling up against the West coast on Fri making slow progress inland and a wave depression forming off of it which in turn could possibly traverse up over or part of the country on Sat. Met Eireann mentioning heavy thundery rain may break out later on Fri in the West . Will be interesting to see how much energy is produced in the zone between the Cold Front and warmer air mass with air flows converging . Met Eireann also mentioning gusty winds possible in the downpours so big convection a possibility.

Sat looks to me like having the possibility of instability in the atmosphere as the shallow low moves up over the country with an arc of the jet overhead and temps still fairly high .

Impossible to pin point rainfall and totals yet but early projections from the models indicating the W and SW in particular getting the most rain. Of Course if thunderstorms break out there could be some high local totals also.

So watching will continue.

pad199207

BBC showing plenty of thundery stuff for Ireland Friday into Saturday

Meteorite58

Bit of a difference with the models even at this stage regarding when or if the front moves inland on Fri. ARPEGE keeps it mostly off or just along the SW and W coasts, the GFS shows it coming inland during the afternoon but not far.

Netweathers 00Z GFS based charts showing plenty of potential for sparks in the SW and mainly the W IMO.

Meteorite58

Running through the Met Fax looks like the front stalls as well just in from the coasts.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann dropping the word thunder in latest forecasts.

Edit: back again in latest forecast but seems to be more confined to Western coasts on Fri.

pad199207

Biscay looks like it's about to get busy

pedigree 6

pad199207 wrote: »

Biscay looks like it's about to get busy

Is it this clump that you see?
It's a pity they're not 100 miles further east and then we might get some action.:(

pad199207

Met Eireann warning out for Leinster now for thunder.

Keep an eye on Saturday morning

JCX BXC

STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Leinster, Cavan and Monaghan
Widespread rain with the risk of heavy and thundery downpours for a time on Saturday which may lead to accumulations of 20-30mm.

Issued:Thursday 25 May 2017 13:00
Valid:Saturday 27 May 2017 03:00 to Saturday 27 May 2017 15:00


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Donegal
Heavy thundery rain from Friday night until Saturday evening which may lead to accumulations of 20-30mm with higher amounts likely in mountainous areas.

Issued:Thursday 25 May 2017 13:00
Valid:Saturday 27 May 2017 00:01 to Saturday 27 May 2017 18:00


STATUS YELLOW

Rainfall Warning for Connacht, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
Heavy thundery rain from Friday evening until early Saturday with accumulations of 25-40mm generally, but locally up to 50mm possible.

Issued:Thursday 25 May 2017 13:00
Valid:Friday 26 May 2017 21:00 to Saturday 27 May 2017 06:00

jimmynokia

As it happens I'll be in Cavan until about 2pm Saturday.. Camera on standby..