Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring/Summer 2017

Akrasia

The once in a century event statement is because they run climate models constantly, so they know how often events like this come up in the models. They are very rare given the state of the climate up to now. But the models for future climate, where average temperatures are higher due to global warming show that events like these are more common, so a once in a hundred year storm at the turn of this century could be a once in a decade storm by the middle of the century, and by the end of the century, it could just be a normal feature of our weather that we need to prepare for.

That's the scary thing about global warming.

It's easiest to illustrate with temperatures, because they're more consistent.

The record breaking summer heatwave in Europe in 2003 where temperatures reached 40 degrees was a 'once in a century' heatwave (it only happened once previous 100 years but never reached close to the 47 degrees recorded in Portugal) but since 2003, we've seen European temperatures exceed 40 degrees in 2006, 2007, and again this year in 2017

So a once in a 100 year event, has now happened 4 times in 15 years

And that's just looking at central Europe and an arbitrary 40 degree threshold. Many other parts of the world have seen a shift from what was once extreme weather, to something they can expect to experience every few years.

Floki

Akrasia wrote: »

That's the scary thing about global warming.

It's easiest to illustrate with temperatures, because they're more consistent.

The record breaking summer heatwave in Europe in 2003 where temperatures reached 40 degrees was a 'once in a century' heatwave (it only happened once previous 100 years but never reached close to the 47 degrees recorded in Portugal) but since 2003, we've seen European temperatures exceed 40 degrees in 2006, 2007, and again this year in 2017

So a once in a 100 year event, has now happened 4 times in 15 years

And that's just looking at central Europe and an arbitrary 40 degree threshold. Many other parts of the world have seen a shift from what was once extreme weather, to something they can expect to experience every few years.

You're bringing that alarmist climate change the sky is falling down stuff into this thread now.;)

I would put it that the European places that experienced the record breaking heat also experienced record breaking cold these last few winters too. The usual Russian type weather of Moscow seems to have crept westwards a bit in recent years.

Akrasia

Floki wrote: »

You're bringing that alarmist climate change the sky is falling down stuff into this thread now.;)

I would put it that the European places that experienced the record breaking heat also experienced record breaking cold these last few winters too. The usual Russian type weather of Moscow seems to have crept westwards a bit in recent years.

Nope, the data shows that winters are warmer too.

European annual, winter and summer temperature deviations (in oC, expressed as 10 year mean compared with the 1961-1990 average)

Akrasia

BTW, I'm not trying to drag the topic off course, it's just that accepting climate change is essential if you want to understand what is going on with our weather, including convection events which have a lot more moisture to dump on our Island than it would have had with a similar event in the past.

Floki

Here's me thinking there was a shortage of lettuce this spring in the shops.

George Sunsnow

I'm actually on pedigree 6's side on this one in that I'm aware of climate change and the need now to act for the future
But I think there's not enough data and won't be in our lifetimes to determine if climate change is already happening as opposed to another of natures blip

Of course if we act correctly it should be only a blip

Floki

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I'm actually on pedigree 6's side on this one in that I'm aware of climate change and the need now to act for the future
But I think there's not enough data and won't be in our lifetimes to determine if climate change is already happening as opposed to another of natures blip

Of course if we act correctly it should be only a blip

You have a lot of faith there in the ability of humankind to all pull the one way and more than that to control the earths climate.

I have neither of those and will continue with the knitting and crosswords.

JCX BXC

Please less global warming shte please, I spend most of my time trying to avoid this discussion!

Oneiric 3

Malin's daily total the other day puts it at the 2nd highest since 1955 and its highest summer total since the 1955. You can view this data on the Met Éireann site.

MJohnston

JCX BXC wrote: »

Please less global warming shte please, I spend most of my time trying to avoid this discussion!

Tis relevant to the discussion at hand though.

Meteorite58

Potential for lightning and heavy thundery showers in Northern counties tomorrow in the afternoon and early evening.













Day 2 Convective Outlook: Fri 25 Aug 2017



Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 25 Aug 2017 - 05:59 UTC Sat 26 Aug 2017

ISSUED 12:00 UTC Thu 24 Aug 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... SCOTLAND / NORTHERN IRELAND ...
Upper vortex will be located to the west of Scotland for much of Friday, with modestly-steep mid-level lapse rates covering Scotland and Northern Ireland. The forecast is complicated somewhat by cloud and showery outbreaks of rain along an occlusion, but ahead of and behind this feature there will be scope for some deep convection to develop in response to both diurnal heating and SSTs. Low-level convergence may play a role in N + NW Scotland, and this combined with a few hundred Jkg-1 CAPE should allow some slow-moving heavy showers or thunderstorms to develop - and hence a low-end SLGT has been issued. Some localised surface water issues may evolve given the slow-moving nature of the showers. A few weak funnel clouds or a break tornado may also be possible from this activity.

As the upper vortex and associated steeper lapse rates moves eastwards overnight, so the risk of some isolated lightning continues, though limited somewhat by nocturnal cooling of surface temperatures and areas of more stratiform rain associated with old occlusions.

Meteorite58

A fair amount of DLS and decent enough lapse rates for tomorrow evening.

Meteorite58

Met Eireann mentioning widespread showers Weds / Thurs in the afternoons with the risk of Thunder.

Looking through the charts can see an upper trough introducing colder mid and upper Temps. That combined with relatively humid air travelling over warm SST's aided by diurnal heating and low level convergence could be the creator of instability giving some sporadic electrically charged thunderstorms, probably weakly I would think. Not showing much CAPE at present yet good lapse rates. As the weather travels W to E it would probably be more favorable for lightning to happen through the midlands to the Eastern side of the country around mid / late afternoon into the early evening.

That's my tuppence worth anyway

km79

Ah for christs sake I thought it was to be dry after weds

DOCARCH

A couple of recent strikes in Waterford (Dungarvan area):

http://brunnur.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

Meteorite58

Some big showers and just a few sferics detected today

Rikand

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Some big showers and just a few sferics detected today

I thought to myself, "That's a great storm out in the Atlantic. " and then I realised it was just the strike counter. Doh.

Hal1

Close up lightning strike, extremely close. Mind your speakers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vZdg2_Cg38

km79

Hal1 wrote: »

Close up lightning strike, extremely close. Mind your speakers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vZdg2_Cg38

Walked back inside then cool as ya like

Comhrá

km79 wrote: »

Walked back inside then cool as ya like

I did a few storm chase tours in the US some years back,and tornadoes weren't the real threat, it was lightning. We were often in and out of the mini-bus when parked in open isolated areas and the tour manager was always at pains to point out the danger as there would be frequent severe ground strokes very near-by. I always remember his words: "You never see the flash that kills you"

km79

Comhra wrote: »

I did a few storm chase tours in the US some years back,and tornadoes weren't the real threat, it was lightning. We were often in and out of the mini-bus when parked in open isolated areas and the tour manager was always at pains to point out the danger as there would be frequent severe ground strokes very near-by. I always remember his words: "You never see the flash that kills you"

One of those is on the bucket list

Jpmarn

Mods please close this thread.
You can post in the Convective thunderstorm Autumn Winter 2017 thread.

DOCARCH

New thread for Autumn/Winter now open for business: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057782335