FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

squarecircles

nope,looking very grim with unseasonably low pressure

hatrickpatrick

Seems that the root of the upcoming change in Weather is that the Jet Stream is about to take a southward plunge. I have very little knowledge of how the jet stream works (as in, what factors determine where it will be positioned at a given time) but to those who do, what conditions have to be in place to cause it to push northward and therefore allow high pressure to build from the south?

sryanbruen

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Seems that the root of the upcoming change in Weather is that the Jet Stream is about to take a southward plunge. I have very little knowledge of how the jet stream works (as in, what factors determine where it will be positioned at a given time) but to those who do, what conditions have to be in place to cause it to push northward and therefore allow high pressure to build from the south?

I'll talk about this in the Summer 2017 general discussion thread hatrickpatrick.

hatrickpatrick

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'll talk about this in the Summer 2017 general discussion thread hatrickpatrick.

Cool, I'll copy the question over! Asked here since it's only the FI jet stream projection I'm looking at ATM

Meteorite58

Looks like LP territory next week for sure, but nothing too deep showing up at the moment. Looks interesting around mid week up until the weekend as shallow fronts and possible wave depressions drift near or over us under cool uppers possibly creating the conditions for convection /lightning weather. Might have a return to warmer weather 1st week of July, I would think.







Far away but the models leaning towards increased heights from about the 1 -2 July

Meteorite58

The Models never stuck with the height building as seen a few days ago, now showing a continuation of the jet to the south or over us and been dominated by cyclonic weather to the end of the runs at least. No Heatwaves but hopefully there will be some pleasant days too. Looks like some cool if not cold nights next week.

Meteorite58

Wouldn't mind a bit of a shake up in the weather to clear away these ,what seems now like, endless days of overcast humid weather. Looks fresher next week with a possible increase in temperature around next weekend and then a potential cooler spell.

Models signalling a big nose dive regarding temperatures mid July.

Meteorite58

The Gem and the ECM both showing areas of LP making the way across to our waters from the E coast of America ( possible Extra Tropical Storm ?) on the latest runs, turning up around the 18th. The ECM shows it very deep and close to us .
Long, long way off but something of interest to keep an eye on to see if the models have picked up something .

Gonzo

trying to not post in the wrong place, but the last 2 posts have really put a dampner on this been a hopeful July. Looks like we are entering a very cool and unsettled few weeks ahead.

LEIN

Gonzo wrote: »

trying to not post in the wrong place, but the last 2 posts have really put a dampner on this been a hopeful July. Looks like we are entering a very cool and unsettled few weeks ahead.

In fairness, this is FI, the likelihood of either panning out as above is very slim, not impossible, but definitely slim.

hatrickpatrick

Gonzo wrote: »

trying to not post in the wrong place, but the last 2 posts have really put a dampner on this been a hopeful July. Looks like we are entering a very cool and unsettled few weeks ahead.

LEIN wrote: »

In fairness, this is FI, the likelihood of either panning out as above is very slim, not impossible, but definitely slim.

I like to have a massive double standard for FI. If it shows a good forecast, "sure how unreliable can it REALLY be?" whereas if it shows a crappy one, "ah here it's FI, sure everyone knows that's a load of bollix"

squarecircles

giveitholly

squarecircles wrote: »

To us ordinary folk what does that mean?

LEIN

Mostly fine weather.

squarecircles

heatwave looks possible again at the end of july in southern England

Harry Palmr

The ECMWF and GFS models seem to be in agreement right now, which is almost certainly a bad thing! But if they are not peddling fake forecasts it looks like mid-late July will be very settled.

Meteorite58

The Jet on this latest run taking a more Northern route and easing its potency and looking much better for the development of warmer more settled summer weather . Low pressures showing up in earlier runs a few days ago never materialized yet will be keeping an eye on a trough to the W of Ireland around Tues /Weds hope it doesn't develop into much. Atlantic ridging extending over us seems to be on the cards towards next week end. Certainly more optimistic now of some decent weather ahead. We will see

Meteorite58

Hopefully tonight's 18Z GFS is an outlier as it is not a pretty sight with troughing and slow moving shallow lows showing up moving in from the W and meandering about from about next Weds until around the weekend . Will take a few runs to see what the consensus is .

Meteorite58

ECM follows the GFS on the latest run for next week. MT's forecast highlighting this.ECM showing ridging by the end of next week, the GFS not looking great going into FI.

Models flip flopping with plenty of twists and turns.

The only consolation is the trough instability might produce thundery weather around next Thurs / Fri

Harry Palmr

GSF runs this morning are now much closer to that of the ECM as of yesterday, alas the ECM is now showing a pattern that is quite like the gloomy GSF outlook up until this morning (the GEM looks like a copy of the current GSF so is two out of three not bad?).

You can't win.

squarecircles

catrat12

squarecircles wrote: »

This still looking likely

Meteorite58

Not looking too good in general into the foreseeable future. The GFS is no better. Unsettled but there will always be the odd good day .

T+240 shallow low pressure to the W and decent heights over Ireland bringing about thunderstorms perhaps ( that is if the chart stayed the same )




The Jet not doing us any favours

Meteorite58

No shortage of Lows up until the 8th at least.

LEIN

The jet is being a dick, doing us no favours at all.

Meteorite58

IMO Tentative signs that the weather could improve from about mid mid week with possibly a few warm days at least . Heights building, the Jet more in meridional flow bringing up warmer air from the tropics and signs that the zonal flow is abating with less LP activity. Would be great if the Atlantic quietened down for a couple of weeks so we could get our summer feeling back

Meteorite58

18Z GFS is rolling out atm , how about that for a chart if it comes off next Thurs ( this is far better then its last run which was keeping the LP from early next week hanging around longer then desired), The ECM will be eagerly awaited to see if it follows suit.

Meteorite58

After next mid week the Jet starts taking a more Northerly route for a few days and begins to look less powered up and more fractured for a number of days there after .



The ridging looks short lived at present . Maybe Weds or Thurs to Sun if we were lucky.

Donegal Storm

Would be some spectacular storms and likely major flooding in Northern Italy if that comes off. Looks more promising at our end at least

Looking across the models I'd say we're in for a more active Atlantic again so at least that'd give a mix of good heat and cooler days instead of the nearly static lows we've had for the past two weeks

Meteorite58

The ECM throws in a shallow area of LP for next Thurs ( originating from the remnants of Tropical Storm Emily I believe away over on the E coast of America ) but from reading commentary elsewhere this may not be too much of an upset as may contain quite a warm airmass and seems to zip past fairly quickly. The GFS not showing this feature.

In general looking quite good Weds to Sun ( will that area of LP show up on next runs ? ).

Added interest on my part as I have wall to build and footpaths to lay and need a couple of dry days