FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2017 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

Unfortunately the jet seems to be powering up again into a zonal flow keeping the weather changeable and unsettled. Nearly all the weather from the Atlantic. What a downgrade in the charts. Be nice if what now looks like a brief influence from the Hp next Thurs would last a bit longer. The ECM looks a bit better .

Ah well, at least we wont be stuck under endless gloomy cloud and boring bland weather. Plenty of twists and turns to keep us guessing :pac:

km79

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Unfortunately the jet seems to be powering up again into a zonal flow keeping the weather changeable and unsettled. Nearly all the weather from the Atlantic. What a downgrade in the charts. Be nice if what now looks like a brief influence from the Hp next Thurs would last a bit longer. The ECM looks a bit better .

Ah well, at least we wont be stuck under endless gloomy cloud and boring bland weather. Plenty of twists and turns to keep us guessing :pac:

Between this and the thundery downpours promised for Tuesday you are now my prophet of doom

Meteorite58

Between this and the thundery downpours promised for Tuesday you are now my prophet of doom

Without, or with, offence to friends or foes,
I sketch your world exactly as it goes.

Lord Byron

Meteorite58

Well the latest 12Z ECM does not look pretty.The brief ridge building into Thurs is quickly dismissed by a large area of LP by Fri which takes hold for a number of days thereafter and looks atm to produce another spell of relatively cool weather after next weekend.

Harry Palmr

The summer never really took flight and now it's in a heap on the edge of the runway.

km79

DOOM

pad199207

Another summer down the drain

Lucreto

pad199207 wrote: »

Another summer down the drain

I wouldn't say that. It's been better than most summers over the last few years. It's been relatively warm and dry for most of it.

The jet stream is our saviour this year. It's keeping out that horrible heatwave nicknamed Lucifer that this country has no preparation for. This country nearly stops at 28C imagine 40C.

Summer is not over yet, we still can have warm weather well into October.

km79

Lucreto wrote: »

I wouldn't say that. It's been better than most summers over the last few years. It's been relatively warm and dry for most of it.

The jet stream is our saviour this year. It's keeping out that horrible heatwave nicknamed Lucifer that this country has no preparation for. This country nearly stops at 28C imagine 40C.

Summer is not over yet, we still can have warm weather well into October.

October is not summer
Kids are on holidays during summer so outdoor activities more important

Be nice to get seasons

Gonzo

Lucreto wrote: »

I wouldn't say that. It's been better than most summers over the last few years. It's been relatively warm and dry for most of it.

The jet stream is our saviour this year. It's keeping out that horrible heatwave nicknamed Lucifer that this country has no preparation for. This country nearly stops at 28C imagine 40C.

Summer is not over yet, we still can have warm weather well into October.

even if 'Lucifier' were to arrive in Ireland, we would not get anything remotely like 40C. Would be mid to high 20s in most parts and maybe 30C in a few spots. Ireland rarely exceeds 30C even under perfect conditions.

None of us here are looking for Lucifier anyway but a week of fine, sunny settled conditions with temps in the low to mid 20s shouldn't be too much of an ask during Summer but most of the western half of the country haven't even had a short fine spell since May or early June.

edit: just realised this should have been posted in the Summer 2017 post.

Elmer Blooker

pad199207 wrote: »

Another summer down the drain

Agree, some might try to put a brave face on this summer but it is nothing more than a crock of **** as far as I'm concerned. Are we meant to be thankful because its not as wet as 2012? A good week in June (the west didn't even get that!) a couple of good days in July and one good day so far in August (today) does not make a summer! Roll on September and summer!
..... and no light at the end of the tunnel.

squarecircles

Just paid my respects,she went quick in the end.

Off to Bcn,no complaints.

I'm not sure which I found more annoying,the weather, that saying or my own posts.

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE : Need to get this thread back on track to FI discussion . Other threads available for chat. Thanks.

Meteorite58

Ireland looks like a magnet for LP systems next week ( Met Eireann saying ' an Atlantic airflow will prevail bringing changeable weather over Ireland with a mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers') ) Looking like some spells of possible heavy rain especially midweek and possibly next week end ( 18th ). Looks windy at times also and occasional thundery weather perhaps . Some cold mid level and upper temperatures also at times.

The Jet gets fired up again next week



A rough idea of pressure gradients and spells of rain



One would assume no great temperatures but no doubt pleasant enough at times with brief ridging.

sryanbruen

The extended range of the models shows the Azores High ridging up across us bringing some fine warm weather after a low passes through on the 18th. Look at this chart on August 24th from the latest GFS run, it's very messy :pac:. The Azores High is right over top of us with a Greenland block and the jet stream is strong at the same time throwing low pressure systems into Iceland or in between the two blocks - the Greenland high and the Azores High over us.

hatrickpatrick

I know better than to get excited over FI, but I'm seriously hoping for some decent weather around the 26th August for a McGregor v Mayweather night out Looking good so far anyway!

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

The extended range of the models shows the Azores High ridging up across us bringing some fine warm weather after a low passes through on the 18th. Look at this chart on August 24th from the latest GFS run, it's very messy :pac:. The Azores High is right over top of us with a Greenland block and the jet stream is strong at the same time throwing low pressure systems into Iceland or in between the two blocks - the Greenland high and the Azores High over us.

I'll be in Malaga by then, could be very warm in that region if it's also going to be warm in Ireland.

pad199207

Gonzo wrote: »

I'll be in Malaga by then, could be very warm in that region if it's also going to be warm in Ireland.

No that's not always the case

sryanbruen

Can you spot the difference?

Thursday's 12z GFS OP Run for Sunday, 27 August:



Today's 12z GFS OP Run for Sunday, 27 August:

Meteorite58

Can you spot the difference?

Thursday's 12z GFS OP Run for Sunday, 27 August:

Never seen so much change in the models in such a short space of time as this last week and doesn't look like settling down soon. Will need to keep an eye on the track of any hurricanes and tropical storms in the next while as they seem to play havoc with the computing of forecasts as they knock the Jet of its course.

sryanbruen

Right on time when most students are back in school :cool:.

sryanbruen

Summer continuing to look as if it will return in early September - surprise, surprise :rolleyes:. The winds go into the east on the latest run of the GFS OP. The ECMWF OP has little to no winds in a very warm air mass within high pressure for early September. However, the GFS ensembles aren't really showing this unlike the GFS OP run.

Meteorite58

Most of the the models showing ridging and HP building towards next week end, might be brief though. The Jet charts after mid next week seem to loose power and go more North and become less organised. No clear picture looking out into FI ( when is there :pac: ) but it would seem to me that the weather looks quieter for a week or so.

Meteorite58

Looking at the models this morning and it would seem to me that the potential for increased Tropical Depression activity moving up along the E coast of the US and potential for another Hurricane or very deep Depression in the next week which at present is way out in FI and modeled to slam into Newfoundland around the 12th, could have an increased influence on producing quite unsettled weather for Ireland from around the 6th - 7th . This is a long way away but I think I am seeing the potential for huge amounts of tropical/ sup tropical warm air being pumped Northwards leading to the potential for increased LP systems moving out of Canada /Greenland. The Jet charts from about the 6th look to be firing up again.

Just an observation and trying to use a bit of guesswork. As can happen at any time there could be no sign of this potential Hurricane / Depression in the next few runs or could take a totally different track. Worth Keeping an eye on it all the same.

Area of disturbance over Florida at present looks like messing with our weather next weekend.