WWX: Hogwarts goes to war

quickbeam

dottie_lottie wrote: »

Well you have the chance to help now, if you're a villager surely you want to do that. Will we lynch vale instead of you?

Lynch Vale if you think he's a wolf, but don't use Dan's "peeks" as evidence as they're unreliable.

MrsFlushdraw

Hmm not sure what to make of it all. Dan is a new player, can we expect fancy play from a noob?

I do believe grumpy, I thought QB was a bit off, think I mentioned her yesterday but didnt have her in my FFA or anything.

Was reading on a bus and just home, no matter what I do I can't get into boards on my phone! changed password, put in new password and it keeps locking me out and saying password wrong.

grrrr

WerewolfGM

My my my, the Death Eaters are a hungry lot. Not content with their munching of Andy, they settled down to another breakfast meal of Amandadon.

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RIP Amandadon. Lynch form will open shortly.

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Stay tuned for more.

quickbeam

Bugger!!

Triceratops Ballet

quickbeam wrote:

Lynch Vale if you think he's a wolf, but don't use Dan's "peeks" as evidence as they're unreliable.

But what do you think? You're acting like you're not part of the decision?

MrsFlushdraw

Armageddon now

RIP Amanda

quickbeam

WerewolfGM wrote: »

Stay tuned for more.

Something about to happen?

MrsFlushdraw

Just throwing stuff about in my head. SO the wolf team had a list of who they wanted to die. They chose the priest so they were obv the most dangerous to them. Does that mean they didnt want us to know tonight once we lynch vale or QB that Dan was right?

quickbeam

dottie_lottie wrote: »

But what do you think? You're acting like you're not part of the decision?

TBH, no, Vale wasn't on my radar as a baddie before. If Dan hadn't made this mad claim then I'm not sure who I'd have voted for, but now I'm sure Dan is a baddie of some description that's who I'll be voting for.

Lord TSC

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

Just throwing stuff about in my head. SO the wolf team had a list of who they wanted to die. They chose the priest so they were obv the most dangerous to them. Does that mean they didnt want us to know tonight once we lynch vale or QB that Dan was right?

Or vice versa that we've lost a way to confirm if Dan is telling the truth or not.

MrsFlushdraw

Lord TSC wrote: »

Or vice versa that we've lost a way to confirm if Dan is telling the truth or not.

I think that is basically the same as I was saying? we wont know now if Dan telling truth. It puts doubts in us.

I actually think he is telling the truth and we kill Vale.

Could be time for the real seer to come forward

MrsFlushdraw

Deleted User wrote: »

Could be time for the real seer to come forward

????????????????????????

MrsFlushdraw

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

????????????????????????

Whats so confusing? Dan man's unorthodox play has cast doubt in everyone's mind

Triceratops Ballet

quickbeam wrote:

TBH, no, Vale wasn't on my radar as a baddie before. If Dan hadn't made this mad claim then I'm not sure who I'd have voted for, but now I'm sure Dan is a baddie of some description that's who I'll be voting for.

And is this purely based on his claim to be seer or is there something else?

The_Valeyard

Lord TSC wrote: »

To counter what I said earlier as well, the fact Valeyard lumped on Dan so eagerly when I suggested it makes me suspicious too.

I'm always very suspicious of low posters.

Also

1) no play, just low lying info
2) if about to be lynched and didnt reveal, dangerous
3) I suspect he is evil so he claims to be seer to end me and save his SK hide.
4) I believe Lord about Dan, it makes sense.
5) QB could be evil so naturally he plays on people's suspecions.

quickbeam

dottie_lottie wrote: »

And is this purely based on his claim to be seer or is there something else?

Yes, purely on that. I can't see a goodie making up the role, so he has to be a baddie. I was actually one of the sceptics of the bandwagon on him yesterday.

quickbeam

Deleted User wrote: »

Could be time for the real seer to come forward

This indeed would be really helpful to me, please, thank-you whoever you are........

MrsFlushdraw

Deleted User wrote: »

Whats so confusing? Dan man's unorthodox play has cast doubt in everyone's mind

Just curious as to why you are discounting Dan. I kind of took at face value. With grumpy it could have went either way as she has played a few games and could do a bit of fancy play but I just didn't expect a new player to try in first game. That is all I am basing it on. You just seem to not believe basically.

Maybe as all the roles had kind of came out he thought he would narrow things down as well as save himself. less unknowns and if he is the seer we could have the SK or 2 from the same team. Would be great to reduce the amount of kills obv.

Triceratops Ballet

quickbeam wrote: »

This indeed would be really helpful to me, please, thank-you whoever you are........

yeah it would be really helpful cos then you'd know who to kill in the morning!!

MrsFlushdraw

AND if there is a bit of fancy play. The seer can come out now, the BG protects them tonight so they are safe till tomorrow night.

Triceratops Ballet

provided the BG knows which is the real seer and which is the fake seer

Lord TSC

The_Valeyard wrote: »

4) I believe Lord about Dan, it makes sense.

One thing on that. I'm worried as time's gone on that my initial suspicions about Dan are based on somewhat (actually, extremely) shakey foundations. My original basis for distrusting Dan looks like it might be reading way too much into things, so if you're only believing me about Dan because of my initial posts, take them with large piles of salt.

Mind, I'm still suspicious of Dan. This is really all a conspiracy theory, but I feel I may as well write down what thoughts are in my head...

Last night, I said I believed I thought I knew who the seer was, and I believed they had communicated Dan was a baddie. (This is the part I now doubt)

Dan's response was very, very nonchalant, to the point it nearly reaffirmed my belief. He was extremely excepting of his lynching. This makes me even more suspicious given what happened next.

Dan survives the lynch, BARELY!

Dan comes out the next morning as the seer. Here's my suspicion; It would be incredibly unlucky of me if I managed to accuse the seer of being peeked by the seer and being bad. Like...the odds of that happening were low.

Conveniently, a short time later, the one person who could have actually proven Dan's story true or not (other than the real seer), gets munched. As a result, if Dan is the seer, we have no method to confirm this until the game is over. If Dan isn't, then we can only rely on another seer coming out...which causes problems cause we'll have no way to confirm THEIR story either until the end of the game, which means we'll have to lynch Dan AND the other person.


==========

Now, other side of the coin. Maybe I did get extremely unlucky and call the seer out by mistake. **** me if I did.

Certainly, my suspicions gave people a chance to swing the vote away from Grumpy and Raze, and suddenly those two weren't even part of the discussion any more. Vale seemed to accept the Dan suspicion quite easily, and took the ball I brought and ran with it, swinging the vote for Dan from nothing to barely surviving the lynch.

It's well possible I provided people the chance to move their votes away from a wolf, and the wolves jumped on it.



But the whole "Dan = seer" thing doesn't sit well with me at all, if I'm honest. Its very convenient, especially with the kill this morning....

grumpylumpy

I've been inclined to believe dan up till now but something just occurred to me

If there is an experienced player running the show in the wolf backroom they may have instructed dan to role claim knowing we'd doubt fancy play from a brand new brand newbie

Triceratops Ballet

Look if another seer comes forward let's evaluate then, if not, we have to believe Dan. If Dan is faking then there will be another claim as the priest didn't confirm a dead seer, unless we think the priest was also lying.

Vale and QB are in the spotlight now but there's a 3rd wolf they're not talking to or about who is prime candidate for the claim. It suits them to cast doubt on dan when then conveniently wolf number 3 steps out of the shaddows and claims.

MrsFlushdraw

grumpylumpy wrote: »

I've been inclined to believe dan up till now but something just occurred to me

If there is an experienced player running the show in the wolf backroom they may have instructed dan to role claim knowing we'd doubt fancy play from a brand new brand newbie

Oh never thought of that.

Would mean he not the SK but it is a good theory

quickbeam

Lord TSC wrote: »

One thing on that. I'm worried as time's gone on that my initial suspicions about Dan are based on somewhat (actually, extremely) shakey foundations. My original basis for distrusting Dan looks like it might be reading way too much into things, so if you're only believing me about Dan because of my initial posts, take them with large piles of salt.

Mind, I'm still suspicious of Dan. This is really all a conspiracy theory, but I feel I may as well write down what thoughts are in my head...

Last night, I said I believed I thought I knew who the seer was, and I believed they had communicated Dan was a baddie. (This is the part I now doubt)

Dan's response was very, very nonchalant, to the point it nearly reaffirmed my belief. He was extremely excepting of his lynching. This makes me even more suspicious given what happened next.

Dan survives the lynch, BARELY!

Dan comes out the next morning as the seer. Here's my suspicion; It would be incredibly unlucky of me if I managed to accuse the seer of being peeked by the seer and being bad. Like...the odds of that happening were low.

Conveniently, a short time later, the one person who could have actually proven Dan's story true or not (other than the real seer), gets munched. As a result, if Dan is the seer, we have no method to confirm this until the game is over. If Dan isn't, then we can only rely on another seer coming out...which causes problems cause we'll have no way to confirm THEIR story either until the end of the game, which means we'll have to lynch Dan AND the other person.


==========

Now, other side of the coin. Maybe I did get extremely unlucky and call the seer out by mistake. **** me if I did.

Certainly, my suspicions gave people a chance to swing the vote away from Grumpy and Raze, and suddenly those two weren't even part of the discussion any more. Vale seemed to accept the Dan suspicion quite easily, and took the ball I brought and ran with it, swinging the vote for Dan from nothing to barely surviving the lynch.

It's well possible I provided people the chance to move their votes away from a wolf, and the wolves jumped on it.



But the whole "Dan = seer" thing doesn't sit well with me at all, if I'm honest. Its very convenient, especially with the kill this morning....

Vale brought up his suspicions before you did though.

21:18 -

The_Valeyard wrote: »

I feel Dan Man should be peaked.

21:26 -

Lord TSC wrote: »

I feel he was

I have a suspicion Dan is a wolf, based on someone's post early in the game. But I don't think it's been pushed too heavily since then, so I'm not sure if that's because...

1. I'm reading the post wrong
2. He's a wolf but not a vital one
3. He's Voldemort, so there's a fear of hitting him and "wasting" a lynching until Harry goes...

grumpylumpy

quickbeam wrote: »

Vale brought up his suspicions before you did though.

21:18 -



21:26 -

That looks like a lot of work to clear vale there, qb

MrsFlushdraw

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

Just curious as to why you are discounting Dan. I kind of took at face value. With grumpy it could have went either way as she has played a few games and could do a bit of fancy play but I just didn't expect a new player to try in first game. That is all I am basing it on. You just seem to not believe basically.

Maybe as all the roles had kind of came out he thought he would narrow things down as well as save himself. less unknowns and if he is the seer we could have the SK or 2 from the same team. Would be great to reduce the amount of kills obv.

Look, its so easy for the wolves to put this together:

"Let's try kill the priest, but first you come out as the seer. People might believe you because your a new player and your basically next on the chopping block anyway considering how close that vote went. If we get the priest, happy days, they can't verify your fake seer checks. If the priest lives, we can orchestrate another lynching of a villager. It's a shot to nothing since your on death row. What do you think?"

I think this game is slipping away from the village. I am inclined to believe Dan tbh. Just the above is a very, very real possibility. I've been suss of vale and qb anyway.

Ectoplasm

I really don't know what to think about Dan. I wasn't as concerned by the low post count because being a newbie, it's easier to read a lot and at more experienced players to figure out how this all works.

I was suspicious of how the attention shifted to Dan last night and I definitely feel that Vale steered it that way. I thought it might make sense if Vale had peaked Dan, but he says it's just suspicion, not down to being a seer, so I dunno on that.

QB I don't have a clear read on. I'm seeing a lot of folks saying she's playing differently but I've no clue on that.

FWIW I do think Strawberry is a goodie, which is probably what is swaying me towards thinking Dan is on the level, but Lord's post also makes sense.

Unfortunately, I've a busy afternoon and evening and likely won't be home until around 9...I'll do my best to stay up to date on mobile. Damn you adult life!!