PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

Guffy

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I don't understand how Jolyon Palmer is as long as 13/8 (with Bet365) to fail to be classified. OK, he managed to survive Monaco, but given the pressure he's under (with rumours suggesting he could be out of a job before the end of the season) I'll throw a tenner on that.

Is this the same as not finishing race? If so great shout, mental odds given the weekend he had and the fact it stayed at 13/8

PopePalpatine

gufc21 wrote: »

Is this the same as not finishing race? If so great shout, mental odds given the weekend he had and the fact it stayed at 13/8

Yeah, the "not being classified" bit just removes the ambiguity in case he retires after completing 90% of the race distance.

Anyway, the long shots on #WhatOddsPaddy and Max to set the fastest lap have failed, but thankfully the former was due to Palmer retiring with a blown engine!

€166.56
- €10.00
- €1.00
- €1.50
=====
€154.06
+€26.25
=====
€181.31

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

First bet for WELL DONE Baku: €8 on Vettel to win the Azerbaijan GP @2/1 with William Hill. I just don't see Hamilton as an odds-on chance here. Granted, there was a Mercedes in the back of Bottas's Williams last year when he set the all-time record for highest speed trap reading in F1 at 378km/h down the 2.2km long pit straight, but this year's Merc has proven harder to set up than the Ferrari.

I'm on the fence at the moment over whether to bet on Lance Stroll to fail to finish (currently 13/8 with Ladbrokes & Coral), perhaps a points finish on home soil might take some pressure off him, but I keep thinking about that narrow stretch of tarmac around WELL DONE Baku's Old City, and whether he can keep it out of the walls for at least 46 laps.

*

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Some value picks for today in the Fastest Lap market: €4.50 on Bottas @4/1, €1.50 on Max @10/1 (both with 365) and 85c on Ricciardo @18/1 with William Hill.

Finally, €3 on Magnussen to beat the Toro Rossos and Hülkenburg @9/2, and €4.10 on Hülkenburg to do vice-versa @9/4 in Bet365's Group Betting market.

EDIT: I should have checked 888...they have Bottas @9/2 and Max @11/1 in the fastest lap market, it's just not listed on Oddschecker. :mad:

Anyway, I've put another €1 on Bottas to set the fastest lap and a McLaren to retire first @22/1 through #WhatOddsPaddy.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

One last bet: €2.50 on Vettel to DNF @6/1 with Coral. He's got an old engine in the back of his Ferrari, and that didn't work out so well for Bottas back in Spain.

This is going to sting: I had my finger hovering over Ricciardo to win @10/1 as soon as Hamilton had trouble with his headrest, but I thought Vettel wouldn't get slapped with a 10 second stop & go penalty. :mad:

On the bright side, Magnussen held off Sainz to win his group, as Hülkenburg and Kvyat retired.

€181.31
- €8.00 (Vettel to win)
- €5.50 (Bottas to set the fastest lap)
- €4.10 (Hülkenburg to win his group)
- €0.85 (Danny Ric to set the fastest lap)
- €2.50 (Vettel to retire)
- €3.00 (Magnussen to win his group)
=====
€157.36
+€16.50 (Magnussen finished 7th, ahead of Sainz in 8th)
=====
€173.86

PopePalpatine

€1.50 each-way on Graham Rahal @10/1 with Bwt365 in IndyCar's Kohler GP in just under 20 minutes. He finished 3rd at this track last year, I just think he's good value.

PopePalpatine

25c each-way in-race bet on Kimball @66/1 with 365.

PopePalpatine

That didn't work out.

€173.86
- €3.50
=======
€170.36

PopePalpatine

Rally Poland starts in about an hour, so I'll bet €6 on Thierry Neuville @5/2 and €3 on Ott Tanak @5/1 with SkyBet.

Their teams, Hyundai and M-Sport, have had great form on gravel rallies (the same surface as Poland's) this year. Tanak was denied a maiden WRC win last year with a brake failure, and although the cars are around 30% more powerful than last year's and have much more downforce, I don't think that will matter much as Tanak finally broke his duck last time out in Italy, another gravel rally.

PopePalpatine

€1 each-way on Johann Zarco @33/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) in this weekend's German MotoGP with BoyleSports. Boyles' nearest rivals only offer 16/1, so this is just me taking advantage of the generous odds. Zarco has had just the one podium finish since moving up to the premier class this year, but he won the Moto2 race at the Sachsenring last year, and the year before that he was 2nd, only losing by less than a tenth of a second!

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Rally Poland starts in about an hour, so I'll bet €6 on Thierry Neuville @5/2 and €3 on Ott Tanak @5/1 with SkyBet.

Their teams, Hyundai and M-Sport, have had great form on gravel rallies (the same surface as Poland's) this year. Tanak was denied a maiden WRC win last year with a brake failure, and although the cars are around 30% more powerful than last year's and have much more downforce, I don't think that will matter much as Tanak finally broke his duck last time out in Italy, another gravel rally.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€1 each-way on Johann Zarco @33/1 (1/5 odds for a podium finish) in this weekend's German MotoGP with BoyleSports. Boyles' nearest rivals only offer 16/1, so this is just me taking advantage of the generous odds. Zarco has had just the one podium finish since moving up to the premier class this year, but he won the Moto2 race at the Sachsenring last year, and the year before that he was 2nd, only losing by less than a tenth of a second!

Zarco finished 9th, but at least Neuville won!

€170.36
- €9.00 (WRC bets)
- €2.00 (Zarco e/w)
======
€159.36
+€21.00 (Neuville won Rally Poland)
======
€180.36

PopePalpatine

First bet of the weekend: €6 on Verstappen to finish on the podium @3/1 with Betsafe (also available with StanJames). As of typing this, there's a 50% chance of rain affecting Sunday's race, and Verstappen has put in storming drives in wet conditions, most notably in Brazil.

The Red Bull Ring has been kind to Mercedes and Mercedes-powered cars since returning to the calendar, so my wildcard picks for the podium are €2 on Sergio Perez @12/1 (again with Betsafe, but available elsewhere) and 75c on Esteban Ocon @33/1.

PopePalpatine

Lewis Hamilton has just been slapped with a 5-place grid penalty for a gearbox change, so I'm putting €4 on Bottas each-way @11/2 with Boyles (1/3 odds for 2nd place) before the odds drop.

PopePalpatine

I think Hamilton's worth laying in qualifying, I've stuck €4.50 on Betfair Exchange at effective odds of 2.11/1 once their commission is taken into account.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

I think Hamilton's worth laying in qualifying, I've stuck €4.50 on Betfair Exchange at effective odds of 2.11/1 once their commission is taken into account.

Hamilton has given up after Grosjean stopped on the track. Today was a good day.

€180.36
+ €9.50 (Profit from laying Hamilton to take pole)
=====
€189.86

PopePalpatine

€10 on either Haas to retire @13/10 with 888sport. They've struggled with brake reliability, and I think this is just the track (barring Montreal) to punish that.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€10 on either Haas to retire @13/10 with 888sport. They've struggled with brake reliability, and I think this is just the track (barring Montreal) to punish that.

Magnussen retires with a hydraulics failure. Unfortunately, Max got screwed over in a first-corner collision.

€189.86
+€13.00 (a Haas to retire)
- €6.00 (Verstappen to finish on the podium)
======
€196.86

Also, I'll have €4 on Vettel to win @4/1, I think the odds have shortened since I made this bet - personally I'm kicking myself for dithering when he was 6/1.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

First bet of the weekend: €6 on Verstappen to finish on the podium @3/1 with Betsafe (also available with StanJames). As of typing this, there's a 50% chance of rain affecting Sunday's race, and Verstappen has put in storming drives in wet conditions, most notably in Brazil.

The Red Bull Ring has been kind to Mercedes and Mercedes-powered cars since returning to the calendar, so my wildcard picks for the podium are €2 on Sergio Perez @12/1 (again with Betsafe, but available elsewhere) and 75c on Esteban Ocon @33/1.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Lewis Hamilton has just been slapped with a 5-place grid penalty for a gearbox change, so I'm putting €4 on Bottas each-way @11/2 with Boyles (1/3 odds for 2nd place) before the odds drop.

The wildcards didn't pay off, but Bottas sure as hell did. I also threw the last €3.90 in my Betfair account on laying Hamilton for a podium place @1.905.

€196.86
- €2.75 (either Force India to get on the podium)
- €4.00 (Vettel to win)
+€29.33 (Bottas e/w)
+ €3.37 (laying a Hamilton podium)
======
€222.81

PopePalpatine

My first bet of the weekend: €6 on Verstappen to get a podium @11/4 with most bookies - in my case, it was Hills.

Next up, €6 on Ocon to finish top 6 @15/8 with Sky, 40c on him to finish on the podium @50/1 with Hills, and finally €1.50 on Perez to finish on the podium @16/1, also with Sky.

PopePalpatine

Paddy Power have messed up: Bottas is 9/4 with them right now to finish top 3! I've put €12 on that, chances are that they'll void it, but hey, that's why they call it "gambling".

PopePalpatine

It looks like Paddy had good reason to "mess up", as Bottas has been hit by a 5-place penalty for a gearbox change. Despite that, he's rated around evens to finish on the podium anyway.

My final bets for the weekend: €4 on Vettel to win @10/3 with Ladbrokes, and €2 on him to take pole @11/2, also with Ladbrokes.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

It looks like Paddy had good reason to "mess up", as Bottas has been hit by a 5-place penalty for a gearbox change. Despite that, he's rated around evens to finish on the podium anyway.

My final bets for the weekend: €4 on Vettel to win @10/3 with Ladbrokes, and €2 on him to take pole @11/2, also with Ladbrokes.

Well, that was a waste of money, I had hoped Ferrari's engine upgrade would work.

€222.81
- €2.00
=======
€220.81

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

My first bet of the weekend: €6 on Verstappen to get a podium @11/4 with most bookies - in my case, it was Hills.

Next up, €6 on Ocon to finish top 6 @15/8 with Sky, 40c on him to finish on the podium @50/1 with Hills, and finally €1.50 on Perez to finish on the podium @16/1, also with Sky.

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Paddy Power have messed up: Bottas is 9/4 with them right now to finish top 3! I've put €12 on that, chances are that they'll void it, but hey, that's why they call it "gambling".

PopePalpatine wrote: »

It looks like Paddy had good reason to "mess up", as Bottas has been hit by a 5-place penalty for a gearbox change. Despite that, he's rated around evens to finish on the podium anyway.

My final bets for the weekend: €4 on Vettel to win @10/3 with Ladbrokes, and €2 on him to take pole @11/2, also with Ladbrokes.

Bottas saves the day, it was a shame Max couldn't stay out for another couple of laps to join him on the podium.

€220.81
- €6.00 (Verstappen to finish on the podium)
- €4.00 (Vettel to win)
- €6.00 (Ocon to finish top 6)
- €1.90 (either Force India to finish on the podium)
+€27.00 (Bottas to finish on the podium)
======
€229.91

PopePalpatine

€2 on Jean-Eric Vergne in the New York ePrix in a minute or so @11/4 with Bet365.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€2 on Jean-Eric Vergne in the New York ePrix in a minute or so @11/4 with Bet365.

That was dumb.

€229.91
- €2.00
=======
€227.91

PopePalpatine

Last bet of the weekend: €1 e/w on Toronto's own James Hinchcliffe @16/1 with Bet365, with 1/4 odds for a podium finish.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Last bet of the weekend: €1 e/w on Toronto's own James Hinchcliffe @16/1 with Bet365, with 1/4 odds for a podium finish.

Hinch comes third to ease the pain of betting on Vergne earlier.

€227.91
+ €5.00
======
€232.91

PopePalpatine

75c e/w on Joey Logano @25/1 (1/4 odds for a top 4) with William Hill in tonight's Brickyard 400, I was just browsing the NASCAR subreddit for tips and his name cropped up the most.

EDIT: Also, 25c e/w on Ryan Newman @100/1, he was mentioned as a "dark horse" on /r/NASCAR too.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

75c e/w on Joey Logano @25/1 (1/4 odds for a top 4) with William Hill in tonight's Brickyard 400, I was just browsing the NASCAR subreddit for tips and his name cropped up the most.

EDIT: Also, 25c e/w on Ryan Newman @100/1, he was mentioned as a "dark horse" on /r/NASCAR too.

A podium for Newman and a 4th for Logano put me €9.93 up.

€232.91
+ €9.93
======
€242.84

PopePalpatine

My first pick of the week (copied from the Racing Post :pac:) - €4 on Thierry Neuville to win Rally Finland @7/2 with Betsafe.

They're also offering bets on a drifting event in Latvia...which they're sponsoring, of course. :pac:

Onto the Hungarian GP, and I think Ricciardo is worth a €3 bet on a top 3 finish in the first practice session @2/1, along with €2 on Alonso to finish top 6 in the first practice session @2/1, both with Betsafe. IMHO, the Hungaroring is just the sort of track both Red Bull and McLaren need to hide the shortcomings of their power units.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

My first pick of the week (copied from the Racing Post :pac:) - €4 on Thierry Neuville to win Rally Finland @7/2 with Betsafe.

They're also offering bets on a drifting event in Latvia...which they're sponsoring, of course. :pac:

Onto the Hungarian GP, and I think Ricciardo is worth a €3 bet on a top 3 finish in the first practice session @2/1, along with €2 on Alonso to finish top 6 in the first practice session @2/1, both with Betsafe. IMHO, the Hungaroring is just the sort of track both Red Bull and McLaren need to hide the shortcomings of their power units.

Ricciardo tops the session to win me €9...and some regret for not believing in him more.

€242.84
+ €4.00 (profit from 1st practice)
======
€246.84

PopePalpatine

Time to re-invest that €9 from Betsafe in some dark horses in the points-scoring market: €4 on Kevin Magnussen @9/4, and €5 on Stoffel Vandoorne @33/20.