PopePalpatine's Motorsport Betting Log

PopePalpatine

No luck on the shopping-around front, so I guess I'll stick a tenner on him to win from pole. Rain has always been a threat at the Malaysian GP, and Lewis has been pretty good on that front.

PopePalpatine

Verstappen finished P1 ahead of Kimi, I just put €8 on Hamilton to take pole @11/10 with Sky, but his price is collapsing now that Vettel looks like he won't make it out.

€154.20
+ €3.60
======
€157.80

PopePalpatine

€3 on Ricciardo to qualify top 3 @37/20 with Bwin.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

Verstappen finished P1 ahead of Kimi, I just put €8 on Hamilton to take pole @11/10 with Sky, but his price is collapsing now that Vettel looks like he won't make it out.

€154.20
+ €3.60
======
€157.80

Saved by 0.045 seconds!

Unfortunately I can't say the same for Danny.

€157.80
+ €5.80
======
€163.60

PopePalpatine

The Red Bulls getting on the podium cancel out the lost tenner on Hamilton. Raikkonen doesn't finish, so that's another €6.50 in profit, but Gasly couldn't get past the Haases, losing me €5.52, and finally Stroll comes home 8th to land another €11 of profit.

€163.60
+€11.98
======
€175.58

PopePalpatine

Ferrari announce that they're confident they can repair Vettel's gearbox so that he'll avoid a penalty this weekend in Japan, and the bookies have responded...except SkyBet, who still have him @10/3 for the win, so I'll stick a fiver each-way for a potential return of €32.22. I think that if he doesn't win, he'll probably fall in behind Hamilton, as the track temperature should be cooler than what the Mercs had to put up with in Malaysia.

PopePalpatine

I should have factored this into my balance earlier - on the 3rd of January I put £14.11 (€16.60 at the time) on Danny Ric to win the title at effective odds of 5.51/1 on Betfair Exchange. If he doesn't beat Hamilton this weekend, he'll no longer have a mathematical chance of winning the title.

Also, after Rosberg announced his retirement, I put €5 each-way on Bottas to win the title (1/3 odds for 2nd) @33/1 with Sky, and he currently sits a whole 25 points behind Vettel.

I think a Vettel/Hamilton dual forecast @11/4 with Bwin is great value, especially since Sky wants to mug punters by only offering 5/6 as a Request-A-Bet, and I'll be sticking an Ayrton tenner on that.

PopePalpatine

Vettel retires to gift Hamilton the win, which also knocks out Ricciardo from the title fight.

€175.58
-€20.00
-€16.60
======
€138.98

PopePalpatine

My first bet of the weekend is the last €2.54 in my Coral account on Andrea Dovizioso to win the Australian MotoGP @4/1, I just think his odds are a little long after beating Marquez in a soaked Japanese MotoGP last Sunday morning.

I'm holding off on the F1 picks until lunchtime due to the threat of rain this weekend, but I'm leaning towards Danny Ric to beat Kimi as he does well around CoTA.

PopePalpatine

Verstappen needs to take a grid penalty, so I'm sticking €8 on Ricciardo to finish on the podium @17/10 with Bwin.

PopePalpatine

€3 on Seb to top P1 @4/1, the track's drying out and I think Ferrari can hit the sweet spot early with their set-up.

PopePalpatine

I come back to see Vettel's car is up on the jacks and Danny Ric in 1st, just typical. I had to cash out for €3.42.

€138.98
+ €0.42
======
€139.30

PopePalpatine

I'm keeping the faith in Danny Ric, and I'm using the last of my Bwin credit to stick €2.84 on him to beat Raikkonen in P2 @19/20 and €2.73 on him to beat Max @2.02.

PopePalpatine

Bottas has just gone fastest, so I've stuck €5 on Hamilton to top the session @EVS with Bwin.

Just in case this sounds too good to be true:

PopePalpatine

Ricciardo beats Kimi, but not Max, while Lewis tops the timesheets.

€139.30
+ €4.97
======
€144.27

PopePalpatine

€8 on Haas to beat Toro Rosso in qualifying @17/20 with Bwin. Without Sainz around, I think Toro Rosso will struggle to escape Q1.

PopePalpatine

€5 on Magnussen to beat Kvyat in quali @11/10 with Bwin.

PopePalpatine

€5 on Hamilton to top Q1 @3/4 with Bwin.

PopePalpatine

FFS K-Mag. At least Lewis spares my blushes, while Grosjean keeps my hopes alive for another 20 minutes.

€144.27
- €5.00 (K-Mag props up the grid)
+ €3.75 (...but Lewis is at the other end)
======
€143.02

PopePalpatine

Kvyat finds a little bit extra that Grosjean can't.

€143.02
- €8.00
======
€135.02

PopePalpatine

No joy for Dovi this morning.

€135.02
- €2.54
======
€132.48

PopePalpatine

Bwin are offering 9/10 for Hartley to finish, while Paddy's offering 6/4 for him not to, so I'll arb by sticking €60.53 on him to finish @9/10 and €46 on him to retire @6/4, guaranteeing a return of €115.

PopePalpatine

Betsafe offer 11/4 for a Vettel win, I think that's worth €6.

Also, I'll put €5 on Magnussen to win his group on Bwin @9/4.

PopePalpatine

Ricciardo's out. I'm kicking myself for going for a Vettel win rather than leading after the 1st lap.

€132.48
- €8.00
======
€124.48

PopePalpatine

€2.50 on Vettel @18/1 on Sky, just in case this gamble from Ferrari pays off.

PopePalpatine

€124.48
- €8.50 (Nope, the gamble didn't pay off)
- €5.00 (I'd say Magnussen has some choice words for Ericsson later)
+ €8.48 (cheers for the extra cent, Bwin :rolleyes:)
======
€119.46

PopePalpatine

Finnish rallying's possible answer to Max Verstappen, Kalle Rovanpera, is taking part in the WRC2 class of Rally GB this weekend, and Betsafe offer 5/1 for him to finish top 3 in his class, and 33/1 to win it.

My research has consisted of reading the /r/rally thread for Rally GB, but anyway, I'll put €4 on the podium finish, and €1 on the win.

Continuing with Rally GB, I'll put €3.50 on Elfyn Evans to finish on the podium @4/1 with Betsafe, and another €1.50 with them on him to win @11/1, I just think that he's great value at those odds, having previously won the WRC2 class in the 2013 edition of this race.

PopePalpatine

€3 on Hamilton @16/3 to win P1 with Bet365.

PopePalpatine

PopePalpatine wrote: »

€3 on Hamilton @16/3 to win P1 with Bet365.

Bottas stays fastest, thanks in part to Celis crashing out and bringing out the red flag.

€119.46
- €3.00
======
€116.46

PopePalpatine

Even more bad news for the log.

€116.46
- €5.00
======
€111.46

Help me Elfyn Evans, you're my only hope.