2018 Leaf

isnottheword

thierry14 wrote: »

Nissan treating it like a niche market like everyone else bar Tesla, shows where priorities are

I think that's a bit harsh. They're in this to make money. Eaten bread is soon forgotten - they were the first to produce an EV for the masses.

Switching to a brand new platform is mega expensive. It's quite normal for a manufacturer to sweat their existing assets and derive maximum value out of what they've got - before moving on to that change.

At various points, one manufacturer is going to have the upper hand. As it stands today, IF I was buying brand new (not my way...but that's another story), the Iconiq is the way to go.

Tesla - an amazing story - but the full story has yet to unfold. Time will tell.

Well it's all about money and availability. If VW released a new Golf that undercut the rivals while providing more range than the other cars in its class and it was available in unlimited numbers can't see why it would be slated.

The current 36 kWh Golf imo is a good effort. What's the OTR price?
Edit: Seems to be from €35665 OTR. Adaptive cruise control as standard. Leather for example is €2177.

samih

samih wrote: »

I can't really see why they cannot use the existing bodyshell otherwise.

I got a much better idea, to make as much money as possible rebrand the current Leaf and sell it cheaper for another 5+ years. 15-18K Euros.

Make a brand new model Leaf. The leaf was in development in 2009 and they should have a brand spanking new model by now.

The pro pilot could have attracted me to the leaf but it's ridiculous that you got to have at least one hand on the wheel, no thanks Nissan.

I got to say there isn't a lot to attract me to this updated model apart from the range upgrade, if it charges at the same 45 Kw , then absolutely no way, nissan can shove it !

BoatMad

These specs are speculative through , and that site has been wrong before

Soarer

BoatMad wrote: »

These specs are speculative through , and that site has been wrong before

Exactly.

Surely Nissan must know that if they don't substantially outperform the Ioniq they're onto a loser?

Gumbo

Soarer wrote: »

Exactly.

Surely Nissan must know that if they don't substantially outperform the Ioniq they're onto a loser?

+1

If they don't beat the Ioniq, a lot of Leaf drivers will swap to an Ioniq as their next EV IMO. (Assuming Model 3's don't appear for reasonable costs)

Soarer

kceire wrote: »

+1

If they don't beat the Ioniq, a lot of Leaf drivers will swap to an Ioniq as their next EV IMO. (Assuming Model 3's don't appear for reasonable costs)

Yup, I'm one of them.

Waiting to see what the Leaf II brings. If it's awesome, I'll get one in the new year.
If it's only marginally better than the Ioniq, I'll pick up a secondhand one of them in the UK and save myself many euros.

slicedpanman

kceire wrote: »

+1
If they don't beat the Ioniq, a lot of Leaf drivers will swap to an Ioniq as their next EV IMO. (Assuming Model 3's don't appear for reasonable costs)

I'll +1 that +1
We're a 1 EV (plus 1 aging Prius) household and waiting for the right car to move to a 2 EV house... Those initial specs are not promising - would defo encourage me to wait for the longer range Ionic or the full EV Niro or the EV Kona all 3 of which look more impressive

DrPhilG

I have no brand loyalty. The Zoe is too small, the BMW and e-Golf too expensive.

I'll buy either the next Leaf or the next Ioniq and at this stage it looks like the Leaf is going to disappoint.

grogi

Soarer wrote: »

Yup, I'm one of them.

Waiting to see what the Leaf II brings. If it's awesome, I'll get one in the new year.
If it's only marginally better than the Ioniq, I'll pick up a secondhand one of them in the UK and save myself many euros.

So fast?

Gumbo

DrPhilG wrote: »

I have no brand loyalty. The Zoe is too small, the BMW and e-Golf too expensive.

I'll buy either the next Leaf or the next Ioniq and at this stage it looks like the Leaf is going to disappoint.

Similar myself, Zoe is way too small but looks great.
i3 would be fab if finances allowed.

I'm not 100% on the Ioniq, I don't like the interior or the rear end.
Probably won't be swapping my current Leaf for 2 years anyhow so should have a good choice by then.

Soarer

grogi wrote: »

So fast?

Yup.

The EV suits me down to the ground, and this was the cheapest way for me to find out.
I was away on holidays a few weeks back, and my dad had the Leaf. It suited him too...probably even better than me now he's retired.
So he told me that if I want to change in the new year, he'll give me what I paid for it, plus his old Laguna to use as scrappage if I buy new.

So I'll see how it pans out.

Evd-Burner

Soarer wrote:

The EV suits me down to the ground, and this was the cheapest way for me to find out. I was away on holidays a few weeks back, and my dad had the Leaf. It suited him too...probably even better than me now he's retired. So he told me that if I want to change in the new year, he'll give me what I paid for it, plus his old Laguna to use as scrappage if I buy new.

I find that alot of people who have used my car including my parents are now looking EV after driving mine. Mam might go for a new 40kwh Zoe as she likes the smaller size, we are waiting for the dealer to arrange a 24 hour test drive. It also depends on the deal renault are willing to give ok trade-in/scrappage. If they don't give a good deal she will wait for the lead 2.

If I were your Ma then I'd be waiting for the new (updated) Leaf.

I wonder what happened the 60 Kwh Nissan demonstrated last year ? Could we be in for a surprise ? probably the price lol, if a 40 Kwh Zoe is going for 29K then 60 Kwh is sure to go for 40 odd K ?

Soarer

But can they charge 40k when the Model 3 will be something similar?

It depends on the cost of the Model 3, it will be a way more fun car with tonnes of expensive options and much, much faster car also, that will appeal to many but I don't think it will be a practical car.

I couldn't see many people pay 40 K for any Nissan hatch to be honest, myself included. If they can get charging up to 100-150 Kw with a 40 kwh battery then I'd consider this over more Kwh. That is of course the ESB get the finger out soon, the network has hit a serious dead end.

Orebro

Dead end is right. Attached is a post from the Irish EV owners group on Facebook from today - ESB basically saying they ain't doing jack until the CER give them ownership. So we're falling further behind as time goes on.

Gumbo

Orebro wrote: »

Dead end is right. Attached is a post from the Irish EV owners group on Facebook from today - ESB basically saying they ain't doing jack until the CER give them ownership. So we're falling further behind as time goes on.

That's been known for quite some time now.
The current infrastructure is what we have to accept for the foreseeable future, saving any private installations.

ELM327

It's unfortunate but we really need a resolution to this, or we are going to have a situation where FCP are requiring queues due to an increasing EV population.

Does anyone know what the next step is? IE what has to happen. Are we waiting for a CER report?

We are arguably already at this level already in Dublin and the GDA.

KCross

ELM327 wrote: »

It's unfortunate but we really need a resolution to this, or we are going to have a situation where FCP are requiring queues due to an increasing EV population.

Does anyone know what the next step is? IE what has to happen. Are we waiting for a CER report?

Yes, wait until CER give their decision... expected in the next 2 weeks according to their original schedule.

I'd add, don't expect a flurry of new charge points if they do hand ownership to the ESB. All they will do is start a charging regime and maintain what is already in place. They feel there is enough FCP's for 20k EV's at present. They might install a few extra in the blackspot but not a lot is my guess.

ELM327

KCross wrote: »

Yes, wait until CER give their decision... expected in the next 2 weeks according to their original schedule.

I'd add, don't expect a flurry of new charge points if they do hand ownership to the ESB. All they will do is start a charging regime and maintain what is already in place. They feel there is enough FCP's for 20k EV's at present. They might install a few extra in the blackspot but not a lot is my guess.

Ok, wasn't aware it was so soon.
Esb already confirmed there would be no charging regime this calendar year in an earlier meeting with the NI EV owners group on facebook.

After that, there's no telling what ridiculous charging they will bring in. Hopefully (unlikely) the CER will see sense and not just hand over the ownership carte blanche to ESBN. Having worked a number of years with the regulated energy companies, I won't hold my breath however.

On the blackspot, I assume you mean the NW and the dearth of CCS charging? If so I'd expect that would have to be taken care of by whomever is the custodian of the network in the future considering CCS is the mandated EU standard now.

Orebro

Won't it be up to the CER on what the charging will be though? Also, other variables such as government policy on encouraging uptake of them will surely input to this. Sticking an expensive charge on them at this stage will kill what little momentum is there now.

KCross

ELM327 wrote: »

On the blackspot, I assume you mean the NW and the dearth of CCS charging?

Yes and double up chargers in the busier areas.

ELM327 wrote: »

If so I'd expect that would have to be taken care of by whomever is the custodian of the network in the future considering CCS is the mandated EU standard now.

Whoever owns it will either have to raise funds (via charging) to fund new chargers or else have it under regulation and funded by the electricity customers (like some of it has been to date).

Orebro wrote: »

Won't it be up to the CER on what the charging will be though? Also, other variables such as government policy on encouraging uptake of them will surely input to this. Sticking an expensive charge on them at this stage will kill what little momentum is there now.

Depends. eCars want full unregulated ownership. If CER grant them that wish they can charge what they like without any CER or government input.

Hopefully they will not grant that wish and put the infrastructure into the assets of the ESB Networks and have it regulated.

Orebro

Would be crazy to hand something like that over - reminds me of handing away Eircom just as broadband was on the cusp of becoming a vital resource to the economy - set the country back years when they did that.

ELM327

Orebro wrote: »

Would be crazy to hand something like that over - reminds me of handing away Eircom just as broadband was on the cusp of becoming a vital resource to the economy - set the country back years when they did that.

That's the point, it shouldnt be just handed over, instead it should be kept within the ESBN regulated asset base, and possibly allow different suppliers (EG energia, BGE, ESB Supply, Vayu, Airtricity/SSE etc) to charge you for using the electricty at the chargers, while the maintenance and upkeep is funded by ESBN.

There could be a pricing structure at the CP, like 20% to the ESBN and 80% to the supplier etc.

BoatMad

I think 2018 Nissan will outperform the current Ioniq, whetheran upgraded Ioniq will then leapfrog it , remains to be seen. There are price point issues that severely curtail both companies unless batteries drop in price and with the current demand , battery prices will not fall quickly

BoatMad

I have it on good authority the next leaf will have a 40 kWh battery ( whether usable or actual , can't tell )

I suspect there will be some increase in efficiency although I suspect that may be offset by weight gain

The envelope will be good upto 60 kWh , Nissan thinks that's the limit for the price point and that will only cone if battery prices fall

They also believe tesla will be hampered by production rate as this will be to their advantage

( and that Hyundai is severely limited by battery manufacturing shortfalls not having its own factory )

ELM327

BoatMad wrote: »

I think 2018 Nissan will outperform the current Ioniq, whetheran upgraded Ioniq will then leapfrog it , remains to be seen. There are price point issues that severely curtail both companies unless batteries drop in price and with the current demand , battery prices will not fall quickly

Well it should outperform it given it's a bigger battery in an newer smaller car!

BoatMad

ELM327 wrote: »

Well it should outperform it given it's a bigger battery in an newer smaller car!

The 2018 leaf will outperform the current Ioniq that's clear. For how long remains unclear as I don't think the performance advantage will be huge , it's not Nissans style

ELM327

I'm not impressed with a mere 10kWh jump in battery size to the "new model". It should have been 60kWh like the bolt EV.

I believe that new leaf will be outdated within 12 months, when the norm is 40-60kWh already and if they are expecting a 5-6 year life cycle with the leaf2 they are very much mistaken. IMHO. In 5 years 40kWh will be derisory.

BoatMad

ELM327 wrote: »

I'm not impressed with a mere 10kWh jump in battery size to the "new model". It should have been 60kWh like the bolt EV.

I believe that new leaf will be outdated within 12 months, when the norm is 40-60kWh already and if they are expecting a 5-6 year life cycle with the leaf2 they are very much mistaken. IMHO. In 5 years 40kWh will be derisory.

The issue is price point

I dont think Nissan are foolish enough to beleive they will get the same mofel life from this leaf. The market is completely different today then 2011

The enclosure can take a 60 kWh battery but I suspect on current pricing it's too expensive

Price point issues will be Nissan greatest challenge

Hyundai are not likely to announce a larger battery until 2019 or they would destroy current sales ( and they need to sort out their supply chain )

ELM327

Agreed. Sure we're already globally running fast into a bottleneck when it comes to lithium ion battery supplies, and we've already seen the impact on the Ioniq supply.

BoatMad

ELM327 wrote: »

Agreed. Sure we're already globally running fast into a bottleneck when it comes to lithium ion battery supplies, and we've already seen the impact on the Ioniq supply.

The major component is actually Nickel

Teslas recent presentation shows there are no supply issues with materials within the next 10 years , the issue is predominantly battery manufacturing capacity not raw materials

ELM327

BoatMad wrote: »

The major component is actually Nickel

Teslas recent presentation shows there are no supply issues with materials within the next 10 years , the issue is predominantly battery manufacturing capacity not raw materials

Yes I said "lithium ion battery" supply rather than Lithium supply particularly.
We face a bottleneck of supply of batteries for EV, caused by the supply chain and not necessarily the raw component(s)

BoatMad

ELM327 wrote: »

Yes I said "lithium ion battery" supply rather than Lithium supply particularly.
We face a bottleneck of supply of batteries for EV, caused by the supply chain and not necessarily the raw component(s)

Lithium ion major component is Nickel , currently available in abundance , current lithium mining is well capable of supplying demand

The issue is making the battery not its components

This will be solved within 5 years

Ultimately thd EV battery will be a commodity like AA batteries, because once you get above a certain capacity , less and less people care about battery type and size

There's enough Lithium seemingly at Mount Leinster to get one company interested to mine but met as usual by local opposition. They were exploring there last year, what the current status on it is not clear but no doubt the lithium would be given away for half nothing known this country.

A Canadian company who will sell it to a Chinese battery company, if I remember correctly there was a write up in the Nationalist last year, but I don't remember all the details.

Anyway, Nissan's deal with LG Chem has fallen through and they will be keeping their share in AESC, so unfortunately for Nissan there's no chance in hell they will be able to compete with the Bolt for a 60 Kwh and this will seriously hurt them in the U.S and anywhere else the Bolt is sold I bet. In Ireland and the U.K we'll only have the option of a 40 Kwh Leaf or Zoe. Nissan just don;t have the sales to get battery costs down which is part their own fault because the Idiots still only have one EV model and the Micra EV is not sold out of Japan. More models will mean more EV's sold. Nissan are really dragging their heals.

I presume LG is making the Zoe 40 Kwh, they make the 22 Kwh so I do not know why it's as expensive as it is considering the Bold costs 35K at 60 Kwh. So either LG gave GM a cracking deal or they're taking a huge hit on each Bolt sold.

ednwireland

Whens the lithium due to run out ?

KCross

ednwireland wrote: »

Whens the lithium due to run out ?

After the oil.

BoatMad

The U.S. Geological Survey produced a reserves estimate of lithium in early 2015, concluding that the world has enough known reserves for about 365 years of current global production of about 37,000 tons per year (Figure 1).

this is based on current mines and known deposits

currently 1/3 lithium foes into ceramics, 1/3 into batteries

KCross

Some new spy shots mentioned on the UK forum with less camouflage:

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/06/21/2018-nissan-leaf-spied-with-hardly-any-camouflage/

One other thing that I found interesting on a Musk interview about the Model 3 is that he mentioned different motor options(single and dual motor) which are optimised for city and for motorway respectively. The initial Model 3 will be single motor only but dual motor next year.

This got me thinking that, apart from aerodynamics, maybe this is something that the Ioniq has done better than the Leaf hence the ~20% better range. Back in 2010 Nissan might have optimised the Leaf as a city runabout to the detriment of motorway driving and Ioniq have leaned more towards motorway speeds. Hopefully they get the balance right on Leaf II.

This is the Musk interview(skip to 10:00):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=axsvbRWXfCQ

I'd actually recommend watching all 4 videos in that series. Good info on everything Tesla.... dates(Model 3 still on track for July), EV truck, Model Y, Solar, autonomy, Gigafactory etc.
e.g. He says the Gigafactory will have more battery output than all other battery factories on the planet combined giving them the best kWh/$. If thats true it shows how far ahead they will be if EV's take off. He really does have a long term view of everything.

who_ru

KCross wrote: »

Some new spy shots mentioned on the UK forum with less camouflage:

http://www.autoblog.com/2017/06/21/2018-nissan-leaf-spied-with-hardly-any-camouflage/

pretty conservative redesign - it's basically a pulsar.

ELM327

who_ru wrote: »

pretty conservative redesign - it's basically a pulsar.

Hopefully it can share most of the components, cost saving will bring the price down.

It's just a facelift. It's far from being a new model. Shame on you Nissan cheap bas*ards.

They should have designed a new model and sold the existing leaf as something else or had their new ev called something else.

It's really shameful that after 2009 since the leafs mule testing that this is the best they could come up with and no new EV models this side of 2020, ok, the Micra, but there is no news of this being sold outside of Japan yet.

So it looks like in a way Nissan will be continuing to sell Leaf I with just a facelift and some poor excuse of automated driving oh and twice the range I suppose the range upgrade will be welcome all the same. I just hope they have better than 50 Kw DC charging or I'll be giving it a miss altogether.

Evd-Burner

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just a facelift. It's far from being a new model. Shame on you Nissan cheap bas*ards.

They should have designed a new model and sold the existing leaf as something else or had their new ev called something else.

It's really shameful that after 2009 since the leafs mule testing that this is the best they could come up with and no new EV models this side of 2020, ok, the Micra, but there is no news of this being sold outside of Japan yet.

So it looks like in a way Nissan will be continuing to sell Leaf I with just a facelift and some poor excuse of automated driving oh and twice the range I suppose the range upgrade will be welcome all the same. I just hope they have better than 50 Kw DC charging or I'll be giving it a miss altogether.

Wait until it's officially released before making to many judgements. It might not be as bad as you think.

ELM327

Deleted User wrote: »

It's just a facelift. It's far from being a new model. Shame on you Nissan cheap bas*ards.

They should have designed a new model and sold the existing leaf as something else or had their new ev called something else.

It's really shameful that after 2009 since the leafs mule testing that this is the best they could come up with and no new EV models this side of 2020, ok, the Micra, but there is no news of this being sold outside of Japan yet.

So it looks like in a way Nissan will be continuing to sell Leaf I with just a facelift and some poor excuse of automated driving oh and twice the range I suppose the range upgrade will be welcome all the same. I just hope they have better than 50 Kw DC charging or I'll be giving it a miss altogether.

For these reasons (amongst others) I will not be considering a leaf for my next EV.
Thanks but no thanks.
If I can't step to a CPO Tesla, I will probably end up with an Ioniq/ZE40 Zoe.

No excuses for lagging so far behind, I expected better from the company that brought us the first mainstream EV of this generation.

KCross

who_ru wrote: »

pretty conservative redesign - it's basically a pulsar.

True. Not an inspiring design at all. A bland car, but ironically that might help its sales as a lot of people don't want the "quirky" look of the current Leaf.

An EV that fits in with all the other cars on the road might actually sell better..... with increased range of course.

Evd-Burner

Evd-Burner wrote: »

Wait until it's officially released before making to many judgements. It might not be as bad as you think.

Well it looks likely from the spy shots. As for battery, yes need to wait but they need to dramatically increase the charging power capability. Or people will be tied to existing fast chargers for much longer. At least the Ioniq can charge at 65 Kw. That makes a big difference.

KCross

KCross wrote: »

True. Not an inspiring design at all. A bland car, but ironically that might help its sales as a lot of people don't want the "quirky" look of the current Leaf.

An EV that fits in with all the other cars on the road might actually sell better..... with increased range of course.

Zoe 40 is fine if you can live with it's size and sluggish power , just make sure you do not get the 75 Hp version and 22 Kw "only" charging. They could have made it CCS compatible. Again, poor decisions. But the 22 Kw AC is fantastic.

unkel

From those shots, it will not have a very good coefficient of drag. I predict that the 40kW Leaf 2 will not have a significantly higher range than a 28kW Ioniq at motorway speeds (real 120km/h)

That's a mistake imho. But I guess we will have to wait for EPA and real life figures to make our judgement. Unless the price is really good (on the road for somewhere in the €26k-€28k range - will that happen?)