2018 Leaf

unkel

That's interesting. Obviously if you have electric hob / electric kettle / electric shower etc. even a bloody hoover, you'd need more than 25A! Maybe for a separate thread but are we all going to be 3 phase here at some point? I mean if you need 2 cars charging at 32A at the same time and you have an electric shower, etc. Maybe even 80A on single phase is pushing it?

KCross

unkel wrote: »

That's interesting. Obviously if you have electric hob / electric kettle / electric shower etc. even a bloody hoover, you'd need more than 25A! Maybe for a separate thread but are we all going to be 3 phase here at some point? I mean if you need 2 cars charging at 32A at the same time and you have an electric shower, etc. Maybe even 80A on single phase is pushing it?

You can go over 100A on single phase in Ireland.

I cant see a widespread change to 3-phase anytime soon in Ireland. The cost-benefit analysis wouldn't add up for ESBn I'd say, and its the consumer would have to pay for the change anyway so a bit like the charging for charging thread.... be careful what you wish for!

If you have two EV's you can get two EVSE's to load share the available power. It is more than do-able on single phase.

EDIT: Here is cros13's post on the dual Tesla EVSE solution where you can "dial-in" the max amps you want to allow the pair to dispense and they figure it out between them what to give each car.... cool solution...
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=102576324&postcount=8

grogi

unkel wrote: »

That's interesting. Obviously if you have electric hob / electric kettle / electric shower etc. even a bloody hoover, you'd need more than 25A! Maybe for a separate thread but are we all going to be 3 phase here at some point? I mean if you need 2 cars charging at 32A at the same time and you have an electric shower, etc. Maybe even 80A on single phase is pushing it?

3-phase for public in Ireland? There was a thread about that some time ago - short answer is NO.

KCross

grogi wrote: »

3-phase for public in Ireland? There was a thread about that some time ago - short answer is NO.

Well, anyone can have it if they wish. You simply have to pay for it and its usually thousands.

grogi

KCross wrote: »

Well, anyone can have it if they wish. You simply have to pay for it and its usually thousands.

Can a device like PowerWall or alike provide 3-phase supply? Charge it with 1-phase, discharge on three? It has to do DC-AC conversion anyway...

aliveandkicking

cros13 wrote: »

As far as I heard the onboard charger would be 11kW/16A three phase with a possible option of 22kW/32A (and some discussion that 22kW may be standard if commercial factors allow), so in markets where domestic three phase is common that's 11kW... It's just that the effect of single phase supply would be to limit people to 3.6kW at home.

BMW i3 buyers face the same issue. The single phase 7.4kW on-board charger was replaced with an 11kW three-phase when the new 34kWh battery came out. And now single phase home charging is limited to 3.6kW/16A.

And Tesla have a similar situation where their standard charger on anything below a 100kWh pack is an 11kW three-phase. The 100kWh comes with a 16.4kW three-phase charger that can pull ~5.5kW/24A from a single phase supply.

If the new Leaf ends up coming with 22kW as standard it means all those SCPs around the country will become a hell of a lot more useful to those with the new car.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

I disagree, even if it ends up being 16A this new charger would still charge slightly faster than the base 15A 3.3kW charger in the current Leaf... and that meets the home charging needs of most people.
Out and about on ESB's Type 2 network they'd charge more than three times faster. And in important markets for Nissan like Germany, domestic/light commercial three phase is more common.

If the 32A is an option (or hopefully standard)... again it's 10% more power on a 32A single phase chargepoint than the 6.6kW and more than three times faster than that from a 22kW post.

It's a win-win from my perspective. I don't think the battery capacity enters into this except for a few edge cases where you gain the new option of installing three-phase where you were SOL (or looking at €6k+ for a 22kW chademo DC charger) with the current Leaf.

sorry cross, given the mileage we are doing , we need to charge within the night rate period , ( less 1 hour) , at 16A and 40+kwh, thats not possible

That a no-buy for me. it would be a disaster and suggesting the SCP network is an alternative is a joke

There is also no technical reason why a 3 phase AC powered dc charger cant combine two channels to create a single phase charger with a combined 2 channel single phase charger

cros13

grogi wrote: »

Can a device like PowerWall or alike provide 3-phase supply? Charge it with 1-phase, discharge on three? It has to do DC-AC conversion anyway...

You could do three phase with the DC powerwall and a three phase inverter... though you require an islanding inverter. You'd charge with a single phase inverter hooked to one of the DC inputs of the islanding inverter. Though it's a little more complicated and no longer possible as the DC powerwall is being discontinued. There would be no connection between your single phase supply and your three-phase loads other than through the DC input of the 3P inverter.
The powerwall 2 AC requires you to install one powerwall per phase in three-phase installs and won't operate when the three phase grid is disconnected.

What's more likely in the future is that you'd be able to DC charge at home directly from the powerwalls, they are usually a similar voltage to the cars...

grogi wrote: »

3-phase for public in Ireland? There was a thread about that some time ago - short answer is NO.

I'd like to see better single phase supplies as standard. The standard connection in the UK for example is 23kVA vs our 12kVA.

BoatMad wrote: »

sorry cross, given the mileage we are doing , we need to charge within the night rate period , ( less 1 hour) , at 16A and 40+kwh, thats not possible

That a no-buy for me. it would be a disaster and suggesting the SCP network is an alternative is a joke

There is also no technical reason why a 3 phase AC powered dc charger cant combine two channels to create a single phase charger with a combined 2 channel single phase charger

Sure, but then you'd probably buy the 3P 32A option and charge at 7kW... It's not like 11kW single phase 48A charging would be workable for the majority given our MICs.

BoatMad

Sure, but then you'd probably buy the 3P 32A option and charge at 7kW... It's not like 11kW single phase 48A charging would be workable for the majority given our MICs.

my current 32A EVSE is good to 60 Kwh within night rates . I see no reason why Im forced ( by Nissan ) to either install 3P ( and huge costs , and actually very difficult where I am ) or to degrade my single phase charging to 16A

I cant see 2018 Leaf replying 3Kw single phase charging , its madness, Leaf is already being tramped by the 7kw charging Ioniq, that decision would double the " meh" factor of the 2018 Leaf , A worry I seriously think is now a real risk.

BoatMad

grogi wrote: »

Can a device like PowerWall or alike provide 3-phase supply? Charge it with 1-phase, discharge on three? It has to do DC-AC conversion anyway...

you could easily do single phase AC to 3 phase conversion , whether you are " tied-in" or not, though you have conversion efficiencies losses and such converts are pricey ( at high powers)

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

my current 32A EVSE is good to 60 Kwh within night rates . I see no reason why Im forced ( by Nissan ) to either install 3P ( and huge costs , and actually very difficult where I am ) or to degrade my single phase charging to 16A

You're not. There is the potential of a 22kW 3x32A option... which will charge just fine on single phase at 32A. You'll probably just have to pay the extra €1k or so.... same deal as the 6.6kW.... or.... they might make that standard. Either way you are still in a better position than the current leaf 6.6's 30A. Like I said it's a win-win.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

You're not. There is the potential of a 22kW 3x32A option... which will charge just fine on single phase at 32A. You'll probably just have to pay the extra €1k or so.... same deal as the 6.6kW.... or.... they might make that standard. Either way you are still in a better position than the current leaf 6.6's 30A. Like I said it's a win-win.

Ive not seen any speculation that the 2018 leaf will have 22KW charging ability

I have seen speculation that one option is 3P 11Kw but most speculation is that the options will be similar to the existing Leaf

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

my current 32A EVSE is good to 60 Kwh within night rates . I see no reason why Im forced ( by Nissan ) to either install 3P ( and huge costs , and actually very difficult where I am ) or to degrade my single phase charging to 16A

Exactly. Having to upgrade your supply or else your charging will be at half speed? Madness in any market that doesn't have 3 phase supply as standard (or cheap upgrade) to most homes!

And having more than 3.3kW charging as another €1000 option I guess depends on the pricing of the car. If included in the €25k and €30k for 40kWh and 60kWh respectively, then it's fine

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

Ive not seen any speculation that the 2018 leaf will have 22KW charging ability

Renault designed a new 11kW and 22kW on-board charger for EVs. They are selling the 22kW units to Daimler for the new Smart EVs starting at the end of the year (currently they do not have three-phase charging).
Renault and Nissan both placed orders with suppliers for parts far exceeding the numbers required to fulfil the Daimler order... deliveries starting Q3.
So it could be for the Leaf...

I was also told by someone at Nissan that they would be taking advantage of the move to Type 2 offering three-phase support, but that it was up to the commercial side what form that would take.

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

Exactly. Having to upgrade your supply or else your charging will be at half speed? Madness in any market that doesn't have 3 phase supply as standard (or cheap upgrade) to most homes!

And having more than 3.3kW charging as another €1000 option I guess depends on the pricing of the car. If included in the €25k and €30k for 40kWh and 60kWh respectively, then it's fine

indeed, I have no problem if the higher single phase option is an optional extra, once its reasonable . My concern was the suggestion that the leaf would be 11Kw 3P and hence single phase using a single channel would be 11/3 kW

That would be madness

on the other hands a 22kW 3P with 7kw single phase as a optional extra would be a welcome addition

The future is DC, no denying that, they're rolling out 20 Kw CCS across Germany as well as higher powered units. I see no reason we can't do the same.

There's no denying the advantage of higher powered AC, ask any Zoe owner or even us 6.6 Kw Leaf owners. Even 6.6 Kw has saved me a lot of waiting around at fast chargers. Sure, on a longer motorway run DC is king but for everyone else not needing the shortest possible charge times, AC is a very good advantage to have at higher rates.

I hope the ESB do install 20 Kw DC points or even higher powered ones and put them in stupid places like shopping centres where people can leech all they want.

Anyway, our network is now over a year behind and it's likely that a private company will have to take over or set up their own network, I doubt the ESB will start installing more chargers until 2018 at the earliest and by then we'll be 2 years behind.

I hope what I heard is true that the German Car companies will be installing 350 Kw DC points this year in Ireland and a U.S company could be installing charge points in the coming year also, fingers crossed.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

The future is DC, no denying that, they're rolling out 20 Kw CCS across Germany as well as higher powered units. I see no reason we can't do the same.

There's no denying the advantage of higher powered AC, ask any Zoe owner or even us 6.6 Kw Leaf owners. Even 6.6 Kw has saved me a lot of waiting around at fast chargers. Sure, on a longer motorway run DC is king but for everyone else not needing the shortest possible charge times, AC is a very good advantage to have at higher rates.

I hope the ESB do install 20 Kw DC points or even higher powered ones and put them in stupid places like shopping centres where people can leech all they want.

Anyway, our network is now over a year behind and it's likely that a private company will have to take over or set up their own network, I doubt the ESB will start installing more chargers until 2018 at the earliest and by then we'll be 2 years behind.

I hope what I heard is true that the German Car companies will be installing 350 Kw DC points this year in Ireland and a U.S company could be installing charge points in the coming year also, fingers crossed.

Mad_lad, destination style charging even to 22KW really just doesnt scale. if you talk to retail operations, while they are happy to participate in " pilot " spaces. they dont see the that they have any part to play if EV were say 50% of total cars

hence given the cost of urban land, how can anyone suggest that SCP style charging can scale to more then a handful of chargers in certain locations. Urban land is far too expensive to dedicate it to SCP parks, even leaving aside the fact that urban centres like DCC, are simply not going to promote centre urban parking spaces for private cars , EV charging or not, as to roadside SCPs, thats a dead end completely

As I said Boat_Mad, not everyone needs to charge in the shortest possible times. So we need chargers to cater for all circumstances and they obviously think differently than you in Germany if they are installing 20 odd Kw CCS points.

If someone is plugged in shopping for 1 hr and gets the guts of 20 Kwh worth of juice this is around 110 Kms of range. Which is better than someone plugged into a higher powered unit and preventing someone who needs a much faster charge while on a long trip from charging.

Yeah, we need many many chargers and faster and faster chargers, absolutely, I agree, but not everyone needs this, think of all the apartment owners, such as my brother who is not allowed install his charge point in his own Apartment space, he does not need a 100Kw + charger for a 1 Km round trip daily and he could plug in once a week when he goes shopping and that will be all he needs and still have enough for some pottering around and he won't have to waste time sitting at a fast charger which he already said he wouldn't be prepared to do weekly for his normal mileage but would do on a long trip. He said he would rather plug in while he shops , get in the car and drive off.

When I go on a longer trip and don't have to charge as fast as possible, for instance when I go to Blanch shopping centre, about 180 Kms round trip. I plug in and 2-2.5 hrs later have enough to get home, feck that waiting at the fast charger. I get in and drive home.

As I said, we need chargers to suit everyones requirements.

BoatMad

Deleted User wrote: »

As I said Boat_Mad, not everyone needs to charge in the shortest possible times. So we need chargers to cater for all circumstances and they obviously think differently than you in Germany if they are installing 20 odd Kw CCS points.

If someone is plugged in shopping for 1 hr and gets the guts of 20 Kwh worth of juice this is around 110 Kms of range. Which is better than someone plugged into a higher powered unit and preventing someone who needs a much faster charge while on a long trip from charging.

Yeah, we need many many chargers and faster and faster chargers, absolutely, I agree, but not everyone needs this, think of all the apartment owners, such as my brother who is not allowed install his charge point in his own Apartment space, he does not need a 100Kw + charger for a 1 Km round trip daily and he could plug in once a week when he goes shopping and that will be all he needs and still have enough for some pottering around and he won't have to waste time sitting at a fast charger which he already said he wouldn't be prepared to do weekly for his normal mileage but would do on a long trip. He said he would rather plug in while he shops , get in the car and drive off.

When I go on a longer trip and don't have to charge as fast as possible, for instance when I go to Blanch shopping centre, about 180 Kms round trip. I plug in and 2-2.5 hrs later have enough to get home, feck that waiting at the fast charger. I get in and drive home.

As I said, we need chargers to suit everyones requirements.

my contention is not that SCP style charging is " useful ". Its that its entirely impractical. Today with tiny numbers of EVs , a few SCPS scattered around are fine and give the " illusion " that this is a reasonable charging process.


But the fact is , given EVS spend considerable time at SCPs ( i.e. more then FCP time ) , the whole solution simply doesnt scale . once you have many EVs all you are going to find is every SCP is busy !

isnottheword

BoatMad wrote: »

But the fact is , given EVS spend considerable time at SCPs ( i.e. more then FCP time ) , the whole solution simply doesnt scale . once you have many EVs all you are going to find is every SCP is busy !

Perhaps, then - there doesn't have to be any wastage in that respect. It may be that SCP's have to be relocated to places where their usage is more appropriately utilised. In tandem with that, more investment to go into FCP network - with expansion of same...

Going forward there will be a mixture of older 50 kW FCPs and latest 150...350 kW FFCPs (effin' fast charge point). If the former still work they could be used as a medium speed charging for example if you wanted to stop for an hour to have a lunch during your across Europe stint or for older cars. Their pricing could be made more affordable than the latest units.

This is thinking that the chargers will be located at the M-way Services where there are also other services than just lecky. I'm agreeing with Boat that "hours of charging" charging points will probably disappear apart from domestic installations as otherwise every single car parking space would need one for enough to be available. The only exception are actual parking garages that locals can use to charge their cars overnight and pay for it if they don't have a dedicated charger. Thinking of a shopping centre or similar where most of the cars don't actually need a charge once the typical range is 300+ km how do you make the allocation to work at all so that only the cars that really need to charge will have a free charger available that is not used by somebody not actually charging.

isnottheword

isnottheword wrote: »

Perhaps, then - there doesn't have to be any wastage in that respect. It may be that SCP's have to be relocated to places where their usage is more appropriately utilised. In tandem with that, more investment to go into FCP network - with expansion of same...

Not only that but the more people use the SCP network the more available the FCP network becomes for people who actually need it.

BoatMad

isnottheword wrote: »

Perhaps, then - there doesn't have to be any wastage in that respect. It may be that SCP's have to be relocated to places where their usage is more appropriately utilised. In tandem with that, more investment to go into FCP network - with expansion of same...

once you have a charging system where people , stay from lomg periods of time (ie > 30 mins) , you rapidly have a resource that simply spends a long time tied up with a single user. This is further compounded by the " destination " charging concept, ie you bugger off for a considerable period of time at the destination while the car is charging ( and potentially finished charging ) and taking up a " serialised , exclusive " resource

It simply cant scale , and it has no future in a future where significant amount of EVs are expected. The key to resource utilisation is speed of turnaround

Imagine 20-30 SCP points in a city with 5000 EVs , ridiculous

Private destination charging has a role , mainly as an incentive to get EVs to visit and stay , Public SCP has no future

thierry14

BoatMad wrote: »

Private destination charging has a role , mainly as an incentive to get EVs to visit and stay , Public SCP has no future

Agree with that

It's a long way away I would imagine, but it will only be huge sites like Junction 14, Junction 7, M1 stations etc spread around the country that will have charging facilities, all super fast chargers 0-100% in 3 - 4 mins, 50 or more chargers on the go, very little down time.

Street chargers,one off chargers have no place in the commercial world

Efficiencies of EV's will be well under 10kw per 100km, not the 15-20 we have now in normal driving @ 120kmh

4 mins on 500kwh charges will be common, it's all 99% of cars will need

It will all become about efficiency not battery size in the future.

I can't wait 😀

BoatMad

Efficiencies of EV's will be well under 10kw per 100km, not the 15-20 we have now in normal driving @ 120kmh

actyally as battery packs grow ( and thats inevitable ) , efficiency will be less of a consideration, if you have stacks of range , it matters little whether you are getting 15kWh or 14kWh in reality ( especially if you are paying to recharge by the minute !!!!)

Also as EVs take over less efficient forms of cars, SUVs, cross-overs, light trucks, we are likely to see an increased range of efficiencies .


Physics also sets lower barriers, so Cds under 0.24 are very hard to achieve , combined with frontal areas , and rolling resistance , electric motors efficiency has largely plateaued

unkel

thierry14 wrote: »

Efficiencies of EV's will be well under 10kw per 100km

That won't happen. The most efficient EVs are already with us or will be soon. Efficiency is almost as good as it gets, cars won't get any lighter with more safety equipment added over time and you can't do much better than the coefficient of drag of a Tesla Model S or Ioniq (both 0.24 and available today), or the Tesla Model 3 (0.21 and available soon)

Agree with the rest of your post

Water John

The battery is the tech that will change. Make take a few years, for the research to become working models.

BoatMad

Water John wrote: »

The battery is the tech that will change. Make take a few years, for the research to become working models.

agreed , the rest of the car is very boring technically

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

actyally as battery packs grow ( and thats inevitable ) , efficiency will be less of a consideration, if you have stacks of range , it matters little whether you are getting 15kWh or 14kWh in reality ( especially if you are paying to recharge by the minute !!!!)

Agreed, the efficiency difference between a Zoe and a Tesla Model X P100D is about 30%, which is less than the fuel consumption difference between their ICE equivalents.

Once the battery capacity satisfies the needs of the owner I doubt anyone is going to care much about efficiency, what does the Model X owner of the future care if a full battery is another euro or not?

At the moment though, it's still cheaper to spend the extra money on CFD and engineering to get the aero optimised than buy the extra battery capacity.

BoatMad

At the moment though, it's still cheaper to spend the extra money on CFD and engineering to get the aero optimised than buy the extra battery capacity.

agreed, mainly because we are in a battery shortage period , which is screwing with EV pricing ( possibly with the exception of Tesla of course )

I don't believe there's no future for slower charging, in fact it could be a case where 20-50 Kw DC chargers could be considered slow in the next 5-10 years.

As battery capacity grows there'll be much less individual use of the network however due to increased numbers demand will grow and I think we'll need many of both fast and slow charge points , though what will be considered slow in 5-10 years we might call fast today.

SCP's can be used by those who arrive into town and can't be bothered whether the car is charged in 3 mins or 2 hrs.

Water John

Battery weight and size to energy ratio will be the limit to battery size.
Unless that changes, don't see cars being bigger than 40/50 Kw in the near to middle future.

thierry14

BoatMad wrote: »

actyally as battery packs grow ( and thats inevitable ) , efficiency will be less of a consideration, if you have stacks of range , it matters little whether you are getting 15kWh or 14kWh in reality ( especially if you are paying to recharge by the minute !!!!)

Also as EVs take over less efficient forms of cars, SUVs, cross-overs, light trucks, we are likely to see an increased range of efficiencies .


Physics also sets lower barriers, so Cds under 0.24 are very hard to achieve , combined with frontal areas , and rolling resistance , electric motors efficiency has largely plateaued

It will be less of a consideration of course when battery packs grows larger, but we pay per unit of electricity and the more inefficient the EV's the more we pay and consumers are not going be happy with that

They will be more efficient, they'll have to be, market will dictate it

It will be a race to the bottom as always imo

40-50 Kwh isn't that bad at all if you can charge in 10 mins or less.

The speed the Ioniq charges compared to the 24 Kwh Leaf I thought was a very big deal. 33-90% in 25 mins and it's a larger battery, about 7 extra usable Kwh. If that was 5-10 mins then I think it would be amazing and means much less Kwh needed, however , having less capacity means more dependence on the network.

thierry14

cros13 wrote: »

Agreed, the efficiency difference between a Zoe and a Tesla Model X P100D is about 30%, which is less than the fuel consumption difference between their ICE equivalents.

Once the battery capacity satisfies the needs of the owner I doubt anyone is going to care much about efficiency, what does the Model X owner of the future care if a full battery is another euro or not?

At the moment though, it's still cheaper to spend the extra money on CFD and engineering to get the aero optimised than buy the extra battery capacity.

That is crazy

Only 30% between a 700bhp+ and a little Zoe, shocked at that

Comparable ICE is probably 300%

cros13

thierry14 wrote: »

That is crazy

Only 30% between a 700bhp+ and a little Zoe, shocked at that

Comparable ICE is probably 300%

Yup... just to use the Ioniq for comparison:

Dual motor Model S averages 19-21kWh/100km and the Ioniq 14-16kWh/100km.
The extra motor increases the efficiency of the Model S vs it's RWD variants. Both by more efficient regen and by more efficiently applying power to road (constant speed motorway driving in the Model S P100D for example biases power toward the better gear ratio for the speed front motor unless traction issues are detected).

ethernet

Sky News is reporting that the Nissan factory in Sunderland (and Renault in France) has also been hit by the global cyber attacker that started yesterday. Details are sketchy now but one has the wonder that if it will have any effect on production or the legimatacy of the firmware installed on key components.

goz83

ethernet wrote: »

Sky News is reporting that the Nissan factory in Sunderland (and Renault in France) has also been hit by the global cyber attacker that started yesterday. Details are sketchy now but one has the wonder that if it will have any effect on production or the legimatacy of the firmware installed on key components.

The wide spread damage caused by these scrotes is unreal. They should be thrown into jail for the rest of their lives when caught.

who_ru

Wonder is there any info on what pricing for the new Leaf will be like. Are we also expecting a new Ioniq in 2018?

cros13

who_ru wrote: »

Wonder is there any info on what pricing for the new Leaf will be like.

Pretty much similar to the current pricing. Any 60kWh option coming later in 2018 would be priced higher than the current Leaf though.

who_ru wrote: »

Are we also expecting a new Ioniq in 2018?

Just a 30-40% higher capacity battery and some minor interior changes.

who_ru

cros13 wrote: »

Pretty much similar to the current pricing. Any 60kWh option coming later in 2018 would be priced higher than the current Leaf though.



Just a 30-40% higher capacity battery and some minor interior changes.

In terms of the Leaf there doesn't seem much point in buying a 24Kwh then, or perhaps a 30Kwh as they will be much more difficult to sell on in the future, if there's a 60Kwh on the market next year.

The 2018 Ioniq might be priced better, has better aerodynamics and looks way better.

I have an 8yr old Mazda 6 petrol, and I'm torn between going with something like a new Ford Focus 1ltr Ecoboost or wait for the new Leaf or Ioniq. A 30Kwh Leaf would suit my needs but future resale value could be a major issue.

The Zoe is just too small for me and the interior is total underwhelming.

cros13

who_ru wrote: »

In terms of the Leaf there doesn't seem much point in buying a 24Kwh then, or perhaps a 30Kwh as they will be much more difficult to sell on in the future, if there's a 60Kwh on the market next year.

I disagree, except for the very newest cars, used 24 and 30kWh Leafs will likely appreciate in value (we're already seeing this creep up from the bottom of the market as supply dries up). There's already a lack of supply in the used market and that's going to worsen with the halo products of the new 40-60kWh cars.
Supply of the new cars is going to be restricted due to lack of batteries even with Nissan's comparatively strong position with the ex-AESC battery plants beside their production facilities.

This is a very different market than the combustion car market. It's growing quickly and people are buying into the market at multiple price levels.
We have an EU market that could easily have demand for 10% EV sales next year but with battery production only able to provide for cars to meet a third of the demand.

It takes up to 2 years to bring new production online and the investment needed to meet the demand hasn't been made.
We've got two new factories opening in europe this year, LG Chem (Poland) and Samsung SDI (Hungary).

• Between the two of them they will produce enough cells for around two to three hundred thousand 60kWh class EVs/annum in 2018.... at best... out of a european car market that produces 15 million cars a year.
• And that's if all their production is concentrated on BEVs and not the reality that it will be shared with plug-in hybrid production.
• And that's also peak production... which they may not reach before mid-2018.
• And many of the cells produced will go into cars to be exported outside europe.
• Asia and the US are actually in a worse position... with the exception of Tesla's gigafactory they have even less production coming online.

So... there's a lot of factors that would point toward every major manufacturer (incl. Tesla... but not due to batteries) being production constrained next year.

Daimler and Volkswagen have about 1-1.5 million cars worth of battery production coming in 2019, but for 2018 they are screwed.

who_ru wrote: »

The 2018 Ioniq might be priced better, has better aerodynamics and looks way better.

But will be even more impacted by a lack of batteries. The current Ioniq is on a 6-month lead from the factory because Hyundai can't get enough batteries from LG Chem.
The new battery is from LG Chem as well and LG is having even more issues supplying cells for that chemistry (it's a similar chemistry to the Bolt & Zoe 40)

who_ru wrote: »

I have an 8yr old Mazda 6 petrol, and I'm torn between going with something like a new Ford Focus 1ltr Ecoboost or wait for the new Leaf or Ioniq. A 30Kwh Leaf would suit my needs but future resale value could be a major issue.

Beyond the usual year 1 depreciation I don't see depreciation being an issue. Depending on you situation I'd lean towards putting a deposit on a 28kWh Ioniq now rather than waiting.

who_ru wrote: »

The Zoe is just too small for me and the interior is total underwhelming.

Agreed, the Zoe is a bit on the small size (it's built on the same line as the new Micra after all) and the plastics in the interior a bit cheap.

BoatMad

I fully agree with Cross. Fear of depreciation. Has been partially based on a recent glut of uk 2nd leafs coming of PCP all together. That source is drying up.

The likihoid is that increasing demand amongst punters for EVs will mean increased 2nd hand demand , with more punters entering a growing market that will lead to an increase in the value of 2nd hand.

Only the top of the market will be chasing the bright and shiny latest tech.

who_ru

BoatMad wrote: »

I fully agree with Cross. Fear of depreciation. Has been partially based on a recent glut of uk 2nd leafs coming of PCP all together. That source is drying up.

The likihoid is that increasing demand amongst punters for EVs will mean increased 2nd hand demand , with more punters entering a growing market that will lead to an increase in the value of 2nd hand.

Only the top of the market will be chasing the bright and shiny latest tech.

Realistically would I be better advised to buy a 2017 Leaf and get the free home charger installed or buy a 2016 Leaf and get the charger installed myself.

The Leaf I could get pretty much straight away but the Ioniq won't be available until November apparently.

cros13

If you want to buy right now and wouldn't mind a white Ioniq you can get one of the few stock or ex-demos going around.

If you don't mind waiting either wait it out until the frankfurt auto show (September 12 to September 24) and see if any of the new models tickle your fancy enough to be worth going on a waiting list.

If you want to save some money a 161 30kWh Leaf would be a good buy (six and a half years of powertrain warranty left ). And that option will still be there in September.

Don't make the decision based on "free" home charge points... they're not that expensive and the ABLs ESB install aren't that good.
It's a nice bonus if you get it anyway but shouldn't factor into your decision. Also they'll be all gone in the next month or two.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

If you want to buy right now and wouldn't mind a white Ioniq you can get one of the few stock or ex-demos going around.

If you don't mind waiting either wait it out until the frankfurt auto show (September 12 to September 24) and see if any of the new models tickle your fancy enough to be worth going on a waiting list.

If you want to save some money a 161 30kWh Leaf would be a good buy (six and a half years of powertrain warranty left ). And that option will still be there in September.

Don't make the decision based on "free" home charge points... they're not that expensive and the ABLs ESB install aren't that good.
It's a nice bonus if you get it anyway but shouldn't factor into your decision. Also they'll be all gone in the next month or two.

I'd rate the ABLs very highly , and so does Nigel Daly , over several other types . Also the parts fir the units can be easily sourced and the controller is available separately

Easy to reprogram and way better then the chargenasters for example ( pr the crappy Irish one )

BoatMad

who_ru wrote: »

Realistically would I be better advised to buy a 2017 Leaf and get the free home charger installed or buy a 2016 Leaf and get the charger installed myself.

The Leaf I could get pretty much straight away but the Ioniq won't be available until November apparently.

Have you looked at availability of 16 30 kWh , not a lot around and pricey.

If considering new , I'd wait till new gen 2 leaf is announced

cros13

BoatMad wrote: »

I'd rate the ABLs very highly , and so does Nigel Daly , over several other types . Also the parts fir the units can be easily sourced and the controller is available separately

Easy to reprogram and way better then the chargenasters for example ( pr the crappy Irish one )

Oh... they are certainly not the worst.... but it's nice to have choices. And I keep skinning my knuckles every time I connect to an ABL so I'm biased.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

Oh... they are certainly not the worst.... but it's nice to have choices. And I keep skinning my knuckles every time I connect to an ABL so I'm biased.

Converted it to thethered. No more skinned knuckles

But yes it's it worse feature

unkel

Leave it plugged in to my very long cable. Also a solution. Blame yourself, not your charger for you are the one doing damage to yourself, cros13