Number of fossil stations vs charging points

unkel

Came across the figure of 1,200 public charging points in Ireland somewhere on the ESB website and that made me wonder

A quick google showed there were over 2,000 petrol stations in '97, but that went down to 1,000 in '08. I wonder how many there are today?

And in 10 years time, will there be 2,000 public charging points and maybe only a few hundred petrol stations?

cros13

I think long term we'll see a few hundred rapid charger sites laid out along major routes. But those will be big multi-rapid sites. The "local petrol station" will have to just become convenience stores... outside of the cities (which have lot's of renters/unallocated parking etc) there'll be next to no market for local rapid charging and there would be a massive disincentive in the form of the cost of maintaining the required grid connection or installing a big enough battery to meet surges in demand.

CERs ruling will dictate the structure of the market for the medium - long term.
If they are smart, they'll treat rapid charging as part of the distribution infrastructure and delegate responsibility for building rapid charging locations to the DSO (ESB Networks) with the competitive retail electricity market selling power to customers connecting to the rapids. That model would allow competition on price while avoiding duplication of infrastructure.... but it requires a lot of joined-up thinking with TII et al. involved in planning road access, handling operating bids for food halls etc. It would be a lot easier if we had proper motorway/major route service areas.

Take a look at the Applegreen MSAs... they have sixteen pumps excluding the HGV/Bus/Camper pumps... That's the kind of required scale long term... and any infrastructure built now should be a stepping stone towards that.

BoatMad

I agree , for future cost competitiveness , chargers will have to multi unit sites ( with all the usual on site concessions. , cafes shop etc ) but relatively few in number and situated along major primary and motorway routes. Electricity load requirements will dictate this anyway

The obvious startling places are MSAs which have the space and facilities

" refuelling " EVs at home, and also more destination chargers will take up the remaining requirement.

The day of the petrol station at every corner will soon be over

cros13

Handily the the 110kV network mirrors a lot of the major routes. But I wouldn't be surprised if grid connection would need to be at the multi-MW scale even with load sharing.

Regardless of what the CER decides the economic realities will push that kind of model. CER can either speed the transition or slow it.

BoatMad

cros13 wrote: »

Handily the the 110kV network mirrors a lot of the major routes. But I wouldn't be surprised if grid connection would need to be at the multi-MW scale even with load sharing.

Regardless of what the CER decides the economic realities will push that kind of model. CER can either speed the transition or slow it.

Yes and hopefully the day of fcps in shopping centres will pass thank god

zilog_jones

I think it's difficult to compare EV charging infrastructure to petrol stations without taking capacity into account. A typical small-ish petrol station could have 6 pumps, and the dwell time for refuelling is short (maybe 5 minutes or so?) so that place alone could deal with up to 100 cars an hour, if heavily utilised.

Contention over EV charging points is a much bigger problem in some areas, and charging points being used as parking spots for commuters (e.g. at train stations or places of work) affects their utilisation significantly. Maybe they could deal with this better, e.g. having 2 spaces per CP (assuming cars that have completed their charge can be disconnected)?

ted1

You are comparing apples and oranges. One charge point = one nozzle not one station.
Isn't every socket in the country a potential charge point?

There us a tender out to put in charging stations in London similar to petrol stations. It Conicides with the switch in taxis to EVs, all though that looks like it's being kicked down the road

http://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:104855-2016:TEXT:EN:HTML

BoatMad

ted1 wrote: »

You are comparing apples and oranges. One charge point = one nozzle not one station.
Isn't every socket in the country a potential charge point?

There us a tender out to put in charging stations in London similar to petrol stations. It Conicides with the switch in taxis to EVs, all though that looks like it's being kicked down the road

http://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:104855-2016:TEXT:EN:HTML

personally I dont think the immediate future is more charge points , I know this might be controversial. There is a need along a few corridors , like the N2 etc to add some resources but thats the size of it.


My own view is that on street SCP style charging is going nowhere , the physical space is not available to use town centres as EV charging spaces. end of story

Secondly the FCP program has largely installed chargers in all the wrong places , largely because in the rush the ESB could not secure optimum locations and ended up placing them in shopping centres.

The solution is a small number of large mega charging centres , where the technology can be kept current and the parking and support services can be situated to provide suitable charging and more importantly to oversee and control user behaviour.

simply dropping more FCPS into already unsatisfactory situations is a bad idea

ELM327

There are a lot of areas not served at all by FCP (especially CCS - have you tried going anywhere northwest for instance!) so i don't agree that we don't need more chargers.

We need to move away from the days of FCP from supermarkets (Naas, Blanch et al, Im looking at you!) and use the existing current to have multiple SCP installed.

SCP as a destination charger in towns is needed, and we should have more installed. The cost to benefit ratio of a slow charger is much more favorable than an FCP.

Then (in the mid term) we could have a few 350kW "Supercharger-esque" multihead FCP on arterial routes, allowing dublin-cork, dublin-galway etc to be done, return, on 1 15 minute stop.

Long term, the answer is more slow points, a few more fast points, multiple FCP per location, and a ban on EV card access for those who do not use a home charger.

And long term, payment for charging (on a properly functional network) will remove all the abuse.

BoatMad

Long term, the answer is more slow points, a few more fast points, multiple FCP per location, and a ban on EV card access for those who do not use a home charger.

And long term, payment for charging (on a properly functional network) will remove all the abuse.

SCP expansion in urban centres , short of private development is essentially impossible , road space is not available and all towns and cities actually have plans to further limit on road parking and even to discourage centre then access to private cars

Pie in the sky to expect more on-road SCP

Destination charging ( supermarkets,cinemas, hotels ) will never be cost effective or even cost neutral , hence other then token installations, ( like we see now) , we are not going too get large scale destination chargers

current FCP locations , with the notable exceptions , that are actually well placed , are only hugely space limited. Many Topaz stations etc , could not handle multiple FCPs , without removing petrol pumps, that aint going to happen in the immediate future

The only area that offers room for expansion are MSA and its here where expansion should be focussed , by developing FCP charge parks

And long term, payment for charging (on a properly functional network) will remove all the abu

none in europe has been a business plan that is commercially viable on a stand alone basis. in fact no-one has even seen whether current semi-commercial models are actually viable

hence a pricing model may in fact be nonsense

errant user behaviour is very easy to control a simple 30 minute max session in any given 60 minutes , fixes all abuse issues. money is irrelevant

ELM327

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with most of what you are saying to be honest.
I like your suggestion of a 30 mins max in any hour, and I can't for the life of me see why this is not already being done.

Of course I suggest more multi unit FCP installations in places like the motorway services, what was it I heard the other day - "In a windswept location where you'd be afraid to get out of the car" - I believe it was. To encourage etiquette and fair usage.

I am however, in favor of payment for charging once the network is up to the standard and any rapid charge equipped EV can travel any and all of the 32 counties without issue. Not like it is now where most CCS cars can't go northwest.

BoatMad

I am however, in favor of payment for charging once the network is up to the standard and any rapid charge equipped EV can travel any and all of the 32 counties without issue. Not like it is now where most CCS cars can't go northwest.

ultimately , the fairest system is kWh charging, a system the ESB and CER do not currently support , which would allow retail electricity providers to bill through domestic systems

the issue remains, unlike petrol, EV owners have access to a fairly cheap supply of energy , i.e. discounted night rate . With longer range cars on the horizon, the demand for FCPs may well fall , and fall quite dramatically ( and SCP demand may disappear all together ) . This puts a question mark over the whole commercial idea behind paid public charging

ireland is almost uniquely situated to take advantage of widespread home charging and bigger batteries, We are on a small island , so driving distances are quite low, and (b) we have the highest percentage of private driveways in Europe

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

personally I dont think the immediate future is more charge points , I know this might be controversial. There is a need along a few corridors , like the N2 etc to add some resources but thats the size of it.


My own view is that on street SCP style charging is going nowhere , the physical space is not available to use town centres as EV charging spaces. end of story

Secondly the FCP program has largely installed chargers in all the wrong places , largely because in the rush the ESB could not secure optimum locations and ended up placing them in shopping centres.

The solution is a small number of large mega charging centres , where the technology can be kept current and the parking and support services can be situated to provide suitable charging and more importantly to oversee and control user behaviour.

simply dropping more FCPS into already unsatisfactory situations is a bad idea

Shopping centres are ideal places, high visibility which may encourage people to consider going electric. People tend to spend sn hour there so can get a charge.

What do you think there intention was? Invest in FCP to keep a very small amount of drivers happy? Or to use it as a marketing tool ?

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

This puts a question mark over the whole commercial idea behind paid public charging

ireland is almost uniquely situated to take advantage of widespread home charging and bigger batteries, We are on a small island , so driving distances are quite low, and (b) we have the highest percentage of private driveways in Europe

You must have missed my post about taxis etc going electric in London and needing lots of charging stations. Also as people move away from private cars to shared cars they'll need to be charged and many people in apartments can't charge EV at home

BoatMad

ted1 wrote: »

You must have missed my post about taxis etc going electric in London and needing lots of charging stations. Also as people move away from private cars to shared cars they'll need to be charged and many people in apartments can't charge EV at home

two things that watching technology develop has thought me

Firstly we tend never predict the societal changes that tech brings correctly, even when we predict the tech itself more or less correctly

Secondly we never predict the thing that we haven't actually invented yet. by definition you cant predict what you didn't foresee( rather like Gates and the Internet !)

hence making assumptions that (a) autonomous driving is actually deliverable anytime soon (b) the regulatory changes will happen in tandem and that (c_)society changes away from car ownership

well you're a better soothsayer them me.

The solution to dense urban living is mass transit public transport not in effect more taxis ( just without the driver) Urban centres are actively and in some cases aggressively removing all forms of cars from urban centres

Hence such predictions as you make may well be very different in reality.

Therefore peering down 10 years of EVs and the need for charging may be entirely misleading from our perspective today

This is why I said that it would be a false move to expand the existing methods of charging until we see a better view of both the tech development , and the societal response to EVs ( and driverless vehicles etc )

as a simple example of tech and predictions , The engineers that added SMS ( texting) to GSM never ever taught it would be used by people to natter about their daily lives, They saw it as a means of getting system messages to users. The fact that it spawned a whole genre we call social media was entirely lost on them and was never predicted by tech watchers. ( i.e. you cant force what want invented , and what society actually does with tech)


ps Taxis going electric is fine , but the solution is range for taxis, by and large they dont coverage big distances in urban areas , ( its far more lucrative to get multiple fares over medium distances ) , hence Taxis need " rank based " charging , which should be dedicated to them, its not a general EV issue

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

two things that watching technology develop has thought me

Firstly we tend never predict the societal changes that tech brings correctly, even when we predict the tech itself more or less correctly

Secondly we never predict the thing that we haven't actually invented yet. by definition you cant predict what you didn't foresee( rather like Gates and the Internet !)

hence making assumptions that (a) autonomous driving is actually deliverable anytime soon (b) the regulatory changes will happen in tandem and that (c_)society changes away from car ownership

well you're a better soothsayer them me.

The solution to dense urban living is mass transit public transport not in effect more taxis ( just without the driver) Urban centres are actively and in some cases aggressively removing all forms of cars from urban centres

Hence such predictions as you make may well be very different in reality.

Therefore peering down 10 years of EVs and the need for charging may be entirely misleading from our perspective today

This is why I said that it would be a false move to expand the existing methods of charging until we see a better view of both the tech development , and the societal response to EVs ( and driverless vehicles etc )

And yet there's active tenders out there with funding behind them to develop a charging network.

There is also this https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/motors/3149881/london-taxi-company-launches-new-300-million-ev-plant-creates-1000-new-jobs-for-uk-industry/amp/


Not sure about being a better soothsayer, just work for a large utility company and are privy to some of the stuff is in the pipeline.


Save the SMS analogy I'm well aware of it.

BoatMad

ted1 wrote: »

And yet there's active tenders out there with funding behind them to develop a charging network.

There is also this https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thesun.co.uk/motors/3149881/london-taxi-company-launches-new-300-million-ev-plant-creates-1000-new-jobs-for-uk-industry/amp/


Not sure about being a better soothsayer, just work for a large utility company and are privy to some of the stuff is in the pipeline.


Save the SMS analogy I'm well aware of it.

These are hybrids and like all transition technology , they are just that

the last people that read the future right for their sector are the professionals in it. Too much wood and trees issues

professionals are good at about looking 2-3 years ahead , after that they are guessing like everyone else


Heres another one


I was involved in telecoms and Wifi . When wifi began to proliferate, there was serious talk about " metropolitan hot spots " and the need for Urban coverage and much guff about digital this and that

many trials etc

what happened , noone was watching cellular tech, and suddenly " forget wifi, " i can get 4-50 Mbs from my phone , poof went metropolitan wifi ( many reasons for this , US tech missed cellular completely as it was a European thing )

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

These are hybrids and like all transition technology , they are just that

the last people that read the future right for their sector are the professionals in it. Too much wood and trees issues

professionals are good at about looking 2-3 years ahead , after that they are guessing like everyone else


Heres another one


I was involved in telecoms and Wifi . When wifi began to proliferate, there was serious talk about " metropolitan hot spots " and the need for Urban coverage and much guff about digital this and that

many trials etc

what happened , noone was watching cellular tech, and suddenly " forget wifi, " i can get 4-50 Mbs from my phone , poof went metropolitan wifi ( many reasons for this , US tech missed cellular completely as it was a European thing )

we will have to agree to differ.
I'm sure you'll have some analogy for that too.

But forget about rank based charging, Real fast charging isn't to far away.

BoatMad

Real fast charging isn't to far away.

and pray tell how do you arrive at that conclusion

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

and pray tell how do you arrive at that conclusion

work, realistic speeds of 350kW

BoatMad

ted1 wrote: »

work, realistic speeds of 350kW

and the batteries to accept 350kw, where are they , or perhaps you have investigated the cooing system needed say to charge 60kWh batteries at 6C or more

personally Id like my Leaf to be affordable , not the price of a kitted out Model S

The projection of technology capability and the hard facts on the ground are often very far apart

we have a decade at least to go to see all this play out

( ps when I was in college in the late seventies , we were assured the planet would have run out of accessible oil by 2000)

hmmmmm.......

unkel

I agree with most of what BoatMad is saying, but I do feel we need a basic minumum level of nationwide FCP stations, not a lot, maybe one every 40km on all motorways and national roads. They are needed now and they will also still be needed in 5 / 10 years time, when ranges are much improved, but the number of EVs on the road will have substantially increased

It would be nice, in 2022, to charge the 80kWh battery in your €25k EV from 20-70% in about 10 minutes (250kW charger)

At fully commercial rates, obviously. Automatically billed. The total time of the stop would be a bit over 10 minutes (no need to go in and pay), so not significantly longer than it takes now to fill your tank with 50l of petrol / diesel.

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

I agree with most of what BoatMad is saying, but I do feel we need a basic minumum level of nationwide FCP stations, not a lot, maybe one every 40km on all motorways and national roads. They are needed now and they will also still be needed in 5 / 10 years time, when ranges are much improved, but the number of EVs on the road will have substantially increased

It would be nice, in 2022, to charge the 80kWh battery in your €25k EV from 20-70% in about 10 minutes (250kW charger)

At fully commercial rates, obviously. Automatically billed. The total time of the stop would be a bit over 10 minutes (no need to go in and pay), so not significantly longer than it takes now to fill your tank with 50l of petrol / diesel.

The reason I say that we shouldn't simply continue the current mess , is

we simply cant predict the technology and its arrival and the nature of how motoring may change with greater range . to simply put more FCPS ( I dont disagree that there are black spots that need fixing now ) into the current scatter gun approach is in my view misguided

because we have a finite resource we have two issues in the immediate future

(A) how to allocate that resource,

(B) How to respond to resource allocation crunches


certain factions see commercial pricing as a way , of course the danger is that users abandon EVs or that low cost home charging and longer range fills the need and FCPs begin to wither on the vine . ( not good for the owners of commercial chargers then !)

the whole issue is unclear and in that lack of clarity making a wrong decision could in fact be very detrimental

Note that even if you doubled the FCP installations at say 6-10 key points , all you would do is marginally add charging capacity and any regional increase ( like in the GDA, would rapidly overwhelm that resource )

liamog

BoatMad wrote: »

the whole issue is unclear and in that lack of clarity making a wrong decision could in fact be very detrimental

This is a very typical Irish solution to any problem. We're so scared of making a mistake that we end up deploying a delayed solution which costs multiples of the initial proposal.

The goal is to rollout zero emission vehicles to the masses, it's an aspirational goal because the benefits are for everyone. Cleaner city air is good for cyclists and pedestrians. Reducing our reliance on foreign energy is good for the balance of trade.

I think people are blinded by the personal benefits. We will not need as many charging stations as we petrol pumps, but we will still need a public infrastructure. The infrastructure has to be suitable for the long range journeys and for suburban people without off street parking.

If this means large charging stations on motorway services and regular FCPs in McDonalds car parks then so be it. The TEN-T report showed that 3.5x electricity would provide adequate income to cover the infrastructure costs over a reasonable period of time.

You're correct that an FCP in Blanch shopping centre isn't great for the long distance journey, but it is good for improving the air quality in Dublin 15.

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

This is a very typical Irish solution to any problem. We're so scared of making a mistake that we end up deploying a delayed solution which costs multiples of the initial proposal.

actually I would counter and say that our major issue is we fail to make the correct decisions and typically run around later trying to patch everything together. Politicians tend to act on sectional interests here and that leads to major issues

The goal is to rollout zero emission vehicles to the masses, it's an aspirational goal because the benefits are for everyone. Cleaner city air is good for cyclists and pedestrians. Reducing our reliance on foreign energy is good for the balance of trade.

Aspirations are great , we can feed the children on them

I think people are blinded by the personal benefits. We will not need as many charging stations as we petrol pumps, but we will still need a public infrastructure. The infrastructure has to be suitable for the long range journeys and for suburban people without off street parking

I fail to see in 10 years time , when a car with a 100kWh power source in a city where someone is doing the average of 15 kms day needs a charger at McDonalds

If this means large charging stations on motorway services and regular FCPs in McDonalds car parks then so be it. The TEN-T report showed that 3.5x electricity would provide adequate income to cover the infrastructure costs over a reasonable period of time.

The TEN_T report is very flawed and is based on European densities.
note that 3,5x day time electricity is approx twice the price of diesel at current electric car efficiency rates. DO you seriously think that EVs have a mass future at that cost base.

no one anywhere has seen sufficient data to support commercialisation of chargers, especially where that commercialisation can fund its own replacements. all charging has been the subject of massive taxpayer subventions

liamog

BoatMad wrote: »

actually I would counter and say that our major issue is we fail to make the correct decisions and typically run around later trying to patch everything together. Politicians tend to act on sectional interests here and that leads to major issues

Sorry I should of been more specific, we fail to make any decision when it comes to Dublin. Particularly in the realm of transportation.

Over 40 years after the Dublin Rapid Rail Transportation Study which proposed the current dart line, electrification of the Maynooth line, Dart Underground, what became Metro North and Metro West, and we still only have the first Dart line.

We've seen the same with the second runway at Dublin Airport, the West Link second crossing, the M50 capacity.

Let's face it what works for rural Ireland doesn't work for Dublin.

BoatMad wrote: »

Aspirations are great , we can feed the children on them

I fail to see in 10 years time , when a car with a 100kWh power source in a city where someone is doing the average of 15 kms day needs a charger at McDonalds

So far you've said no to on-street charging and no to urban FCPs. Do you suggest people drive to the supercharger station in Athlone to charge their car. There is a number of vehicles that do not leave the Greater Dublin Area.

Unless the friendly driveways association start selling charges to people we need to come up with a solution.

Aspirations are great, maybe the children can travel to school without breathing in Diesel Particulates!

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

Sorry I should of been more specific, we fail to make any decision when it comes to Dublin. Particularly in the realm of transportation.

Over 40 years after the Dublin Rapid Rail Transportation Study which proposed the current dart line, electrification of the Maynooth line, Dart Underground, what became Metro North and Metro West, and we still only have the first Dart line.

We've seen the same with the second runway at Dublin Airport, the West Link second crossing, the M50 capacity.

Let's face it what works for rural Ireland doesn't work for Dublin.

These decisions were all pushed aside because the financial conditions never appeared that allowed them to be built. remember this state has lurched from financial crisis to financial crisis since its foundation . ( lots of reasons )

This coupled with a largely rural facing political establishment ( a legacy of the odious Devalera) and the need for a one for all the audience approach to capital . means we have a motorway in Gort serving a fraction of the population that are say in Swords , with completely inadequate transport infrastructure

So far you've said no to on-street charging and no to urban FCPs. Do you suggest people drive to the supercharger station in Athlone to charge their car. There is a number of vehicles that do not leave the Greater Dublin Area.

My discussions with County Councils have demonstrated that there is no way to scale SCP in the current urban planning. the space is not available and its not politically possible to reserve more and more on street spaces for chargers , sorry but thats the reality

again Urban FCPS, just where do you suggest they are placed. There are for example virtually no filling stations within the canal ring and the one or two that are are totally at space capacity .

Environments , like park pointe in DL are very space limited , and placing FCPs in shopping centres encourages bad user behaviour

Unless the friendly driveways association start selling charges to people we need to come up with a solution.

EVSEs are cheap . The solution is more range , so that all urban driving can be accommodated without needing to charge and then provisions for domestic chargers, including changes to legislation to mandate chargers infrastructure wiring for apartment dwellers. ( who have guaranteed parking spaces ) The issue is not as big as you think , more and more urban dwellers are not acquiring cars at all and this is especially true of apartment dwellers as many have no guaranteed car space to begin with

Aspirations are great, maybe the children can travel to school without breathing in Diesel Particulates!

yes however, the solution in urban areas is not based around the car, EV or not

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

note that 3,5x day time electricity is approx twice the price of diesel at current electric car efficiency rates.

Not quite. It's about the same.

Diesel 6l/100km, €1.25/l. EV 16c/kWh times your 3.5, 14kWh/100km. Both a bit under €8 per 100km

Out of interest, where did you get the factor 3.5? Is that supposed to be a viable commercially interesting rate? Surely that seems extremely high taken into account there is almost zero margin on petrol / diesel for the pumpholders?

unkel

BTW I'd be happy to pay 3.5 times the full day rate if it meant reliable quick charging. 30%-80% in the Ioniq, good for another 100km and just €8 maybe once or twice a month that I need it.

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

Not quite. It's about the same.

Diesel 6l/100km, €1.25/l. EV 16c/kWh times your 3.5, 14kWh/100km. Both a bit under €8 per 100km

Out of interest, where did you get the factor 3.5? Is that supposed to be a viable commercially interesting rate? Surely that seems extremely high taken into account there is almost zero margin on petrol / diesel for the pumpholders?

a modern small diesel of similar size is now easily achieving an average of 4l/100km , I drove one recently

and 14kwh is not an average figure either its solely achievable on the Ioniq.

at 4l , and 125 cents per litre , thats 5 euros per 100km, at 22cents per KWh, the equivalent at say 15 kWh/100 Km is €3,30 , the TEN-T reports suggests that 3.5x standard electricity rates is needed for commercialisation , Thats over 11.50 euros for an EV journey that can be accomplished for 5 euros in a diesel ( twice as I said )

you may find it useful to revise the ESB Ecars proposed charges for the FCP network in Nov 2015.

We would have to double the costs of diesel to even approach EV costs where public charging at levels regarded as commercial , thats not going to politically happen

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

BTW I'd be happy to pay 3.5 times the full day rate if it meant reliable quick charging. 30%-80% in the Ioniq, good for another 100km and just €8 maybe once or twice a month that I need it.

my costs of a commutate in a diesel where bad enough , having to fork out twice that amount would have been impossible

thanks but transport has to remain affordable for ordinary mortals

liamog

My suggestion of Fast Food locations was based on companies that may like to incentivise a 30 min stop.

The numbers I've seen give a rule of thumb of €1,000:€8,000:€80,000 ratio for EVSE:SCP:FCP (installation and supply).

The type of charging I'm trying to solve is terrace streets and townhouses.
We're trying to densify the suburbs, townhouses are particularly good at this and they utilise shared parking.

If we get to a point where 1 in 3 cars are an EV, then surely the problem of reserving spaces becomes moot.
Every other car is an EV so will need to be charged somewhere.

The state has put long term projects on the long finger at the expanse of sustainability due to political decisions. I reckon it's these that have lead to the lurching from crisis to crisis.

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

a modern small diesel of similar size is now easily achieving an average of 4l/100km , I drove one recently

and 14kwh is not an average figure either its solely achievable on the Ioniq.

at 4l , and 125 cents per litre , thats 5 euros per 100km, at 22cents per KWh, the equivalent at say 15 kWh/100 Km is €3,30 , the TEN-T reports suggests that 3.5x standard electricity rates is needed for commercialisation , Thats over 11.50 euros for an EV journey that can be accomplished for 5 euros in a diesel ( twice as I said )

Who gets 4l / 100km average in a family size diesel? And who pays a normal rate of 22c/kWh for their electricity?

Both fools I say

Full commercial rates for a nationwide network of FCP is going to be extremely expensive as we only have a few thousand EVs in this country. Not in the interest of the government to let it go full commercial until there is a more solid base of EVs. That's the reason charging is still free. The government needs to intervene until there are say 100k EVs. I seriously doubt that a commercial rate markup of 250% is necessary (and surely big buyers can get a cheaper rate than domestic users). Markup of petrol / diesel is barely 5% these days...

liamog

The RCN report is here

Basically it projects that under the low scenario (10% EV by 2030) 3.5x kWh price would payback in 10 years.
For the central scenario (60% EV by 2030) 2.1x kWh price would be the break even point.

% are for the fleet, not new sales.

unkel

Thanks, I'll have a good look at that later. It's a UK report though. Same country where a 1 minute ride on the metro costs you £5

Saying that a kWh at a FCP in Ireland will cost you €0.80 soon is just scaremongering. It won't happen. Government will keep intervening. Up the price of petrol / diesel by €0.50 in steps over the next 10 years will pay for a lot of the EV subsidies, probably all of them.

liamog

unkel wrote: »

Thanks, I'll have a good look at that later. It's a UK report though. Same country where a 1 minute ride on the metro costs you £5

Saying that a kWh at a FCP in Ireland will cost you €0.80 soon is just scaremongering. It won't happen. Government will keep intervening. Up the price of petrol / diesel by €0.50 in steps over the next 10 years will pay for a lot of the EV subsidies, probably all of them.

UK report funded by the EU, also important to remember that's 2.1 and 3.5 times the cost of electricity to the charger network, not the consumer.

I suspect a spun off eCars would not pay domestic rates.

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

Who gets 4l / 100km average in a family size diesel? And who pays a normal rate of 22c/kWh for their electricity?

Both fools I say

Full commercial rates for a nationwide network of FCP is going to be extremely expensive as we only have a few thousand EVs in this country. Not in the interest of the government to let it go full commercial until there is a more solid base of EVs. That's the reason charging is still free. The government needs to intervene until there are say 100k EVs. I seriously doubt that a commercial rate markup of 250% is necessary (and surely big buyers can get a cheaper rate than domestic users). Markup of petrol / diesel is barely 5% these days...

I was comparing a small modern diesel with a current small EV

the 22 cents is the current day rate unit cost and the TEN-T report suggested 3.5 x was the commercialisation point

I only illustrate it to show that there is not much room in EV costs before you encroach on diesel as a cost , when you think of it hydrocarbons are incredibly cheap , less then some bottled waters ! ( and thats after 60% tax is levied )

This is why I'm entirely sceptical that there is actually a commercial route for public charging at all

Yes, inappropriate pricing regime for public charging could decimate the EV project and set it back years

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

you may find it useful to revise the ESB Ecars proposed charges for the FCP network in Nov 2015.

I looked it up and they suggested €0.30 per minute for FCB. And their proposal was almost instantly shot down.

But even at that rate, that would be 12 minutes charging in the Ioniq to take on 14kWh needed for 100km. So €3.60 and not €11.50 you mention

Or 25c/kWh and not 80c (3.5 x 22c you mention)

And obviously not even rates like these very reasonable rates (far, far cheaper than diesel) are going to happen any time soon.

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

UK report funded by the EU, also important to remember that's 2.1 and 3.5 times the cost of electricity to the charger network, not the consumer.

I suspect a spun off eCars would not pay domestic rates.

ecars proposed pricing regime resulted in an equivalent journey being 1,6 times dearer then diesel in Nov 2015, its was even dearer for the occasional EV FCP user as they paid an access charge as well.

the average charge in Europe is approaching 50 cents a kWh, but time based pricing can be a lot more then that

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

I looked it up and they suggested €0.30 per minute for FCB. And their proposal was almost instantly shot down.

But even at that rate, that would be 12 minutes charging in the Ioniq to take on 14kWh needed for 100km. So €3.60 and not €11.50 you mention

Or 25c/kWh and not 80c (3.5 x 22c you mention)

And obviously not even rates like these very reasonable rates (far, far cheaper than diesel) are going to happen any time soon.

it was not shot down at all. that happened is the CER told ESB that until the issue of ownership was decided it couldnt make that type of decision

no comment was made as to the effect on the EV market

you also need to look at the totality of the ecars proposal including access fees etc

you also need to consider average charging times across a range of EVs including PHEVS, EVs with depleted batteries and those with poor charging efficiencies , rather then min/maxing

as I said the 11.50 is derived from the TEN-T view on commercialisation

note also that no charger at present can provide 70Kw that the ioniq can in theory handle , so you can not recharge in 12 minutes

unkel

That was in 2015 though and no charging yet. And I can't see it being introduced this year, can you?

Let's take a bet. If fast charging in Ireland will cost more than €0.50 / kWh on 01/01/2022, you win. If it's less, I win

Can I put a large amount of money on this bet?

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

I looked it up and they suggested €0.30 per minute for FCB. And their proposal was almost instantly shot down.

But even at that rate, that would be 12 minutes charging in the Ioniq to take on 14kWh needed for 100km. So €3.60 and not €11.50 you mention

Or 25c/kWh and not 80c (3.5 x 22c you mention)

And obviously not even rates like these very reasonable rates (far, far cheaper than diesel) are going to happen any time soon.

why, its very unlikely that the CER decision will be good news in my opinion ( and again see the totality of ecars charges and the fact that you cant charge at 70 Kw )

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

That was in 2015 though and no charging yet. And I can't see it being introduced this year, can you?

Let's take a bet. If fast charging in Ireland will cost more than €0.50 / kWh on 01/01/2022, you win. If it's less, I win

Can I put a large amount of money on this bet?

I dont gamble , but I accept that there is a possibility your right and I hope for the EV situation its ALOT less then that . 50 cents kWh is as dear or maybe dear then diesel and the fact is we are unlikely to get kWh billing here unless the CER has a major major change of heart .

aldi are charging a flat €5 per charge , which in my view is much more likely the way private chargers will price it . A nissan garage in cork also tried "on" a fiver a charge

liamog

Average wholesale market rate for electricity yesterday was €42.50/MWh and the average of 06:00 to 10:30 and 18:00 to 21:30 when costs were highest was €58.08

If I stick to eCars paying 6c/kWh wholesale, the 10% EV Scenario leaves the FCP fee at 20c/kWh..
20c/kWh at a 50kW charger costs about €5 for 30 mins.

In the predicted scenario of 60% EV Adoption it's even less, a 30 min charge should cost around €3.

Sounds like Aldi have it right on the spot.

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

Average wholesale market rate for electricity yesterday was €42.50/MWh and the average of 06:00 to 10:30 and 18:00 to 21:30 when costs were highest was €58.08

If I stick to eCars paying 6c/kWh wholesale, the 10% EV Scenario leaves the FCP fee at 20c/kWh..
20c/kWh at a 50kW charger costs about €5 for 30 mins.

In the predicted scenario of 60% EV Adoption it's even less, a 30 min charge should cost around €3.

Sounds like Aldi have it right on the spot.

I think most people would except in the fullness of time that a charge that worked out near the retail day rate per kWh would be acceptable. ( i.e. 20-22 cents ) This would bring in EVs at around 70% of the cost of diesel

I would expect this to be the position at about 20000 EVs, until then we need sliding scale incentives as EVs are dear to buy and have serious usage limitations . I have campaigned that charging should remain free for 5 years or until 10,000 EVS are registered which ever comes first

however an average of 50 cents per kWh is the norm in Europe

note that time based charging is of course very unfair for people with widely differing EVs. people with older less capable EVs will be subjected to significantly higher real costs at FCPs.

This will hurt people with no home chargers quite badly, but in fairness, apartment dwellers are likely to be low mileage users anyway , those in the burbs, will home charge as will the long commuters

liamog

BoatMad wrote: »

I think most people would except in the fullness of time that a charge that worked out near the retail day rate per kWh would be acceptable. ( i.e. 20-22 cents ) This would bring in EVs at around 70% of the cost of diesel

I would expect this to be the position at about 20000 EVs, until then we need sliding scale incentives as EVs are dear to buy and have serious usage limitations . I have campaigned that charging should remain free for 5 years or until 10,000 EVS are registered which ever comes first

however an average of 50 cents per kWh is the norm in Europe

note that time based charging is of course very unfair for people with widely differing EVs. people with older less capable EVs will be subjected to significantly higher real costs at FCPs.

This will hurt people with no home chargers quite badly, but in fairness, apartment dwellers are likely to be low mileage users anyway , those in the burbs, will home charge as will the long commuters

I think we're agreed on that, your just missing the 'burbs move towards on-street parking the townhouse is the new Semi-D.

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

retail day rate per kWh would be acceptable. ( i.e. 20-22 cents )

Serious question. Why do you keep quoting 22c/kWh? Surely you don't pay this?
It's 50% more than you should be paying...

@liamog - it's funny you mention the wholesale rate, I just happened to click on the EirGrid site a while ago and the wholesale rate was just over 3c/kWh. I didn't even know this info was publicly available

cros13

unkel wrote: »

the wholesale rate was just over 3c/kWh

In fairness that's the spot price... the prices in power purchase agreements can be lower.

Victor

cros13 wrote: »

Handily the the 110kV network mirrors a lot of the major routes.

Only in a vague sense - large sections of motorways and national routes are 10km+ from the transmission network.

If you can put a housing estate or a factory on a 10kV supply, you can do the same for a charging station with dozens, if not hundreds of cars.

A common 10kV transformer is 630kVA - that's 171 cars at 3.6kW.

cros13

Yeah... we're not talking 3.6kW per vehicle here we're talking up to 400kW plus inverter losses of 10%+ for each of up to eight vehicles.

An 8 bay chargepoint express plus install provides 400kW DC peak per plug, 312kW simultaneous per plug in a pair for a probable minimum MIC of 3MW per site.

This isn't home charging we're talking here... the inverter boxes are specced for 200 - 1000V DC at 1250A if the module loadout can supply it.

So yeah... 38kV network at a minimum... ideally the 110kV to allow for expansion beyond 8 plugs and you also have to account for possible Bus / HGV rapid charging at up 800kW per vehicle for multiple vehicles.

FastNed's similar stations in the netherlands have 630kVA grid connections and with the advent of 350kW rapid charging they are looking to upgrade some of those already.
They'd originally planned for up to eight rapid chargers but only ~50kW each.

Chargepoint Express Plus datasheet if you are interested:
https://www.chargepoint.com/files/datasheets/ds-expressplus.pdf

This isn't long-term stuff. Tesla's supercharger at Nebbenes in Norway has a 2MW grid connection, only supplies a maximum of 135kW per vehicle and still has to load share by de-rating some of the connected vehicles to stay inside it's MIC.

In the real world ESB needs to be thinking about a 150 - 350kW charging infrastructure starting rollout in the next 12 months, and planning for expansion needs to be part of that.

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

the 22 cents is the current day rate unit cost

Electric Ireland is 17.7c/kWh incl Vat. That's before any direct debit discount or loyalty or new subscribers.

Where are you getting 22c ? You are really playing with numbers to suit yourself