Number of fossil stations vs charging points

liamog

My suggestion of Fast Food locations was based on companies that may like to incentivise a 30 min stop.

The numbers I've seen give a rule of thumb of €1,000:€8,000:€80,000 ratio for EVSE:SCP:FCP (installation and supply).

The type of charging I'm trying to solve is terrace streets and townhouses.
We're trying to densify the suburbs, townhouses are particularly good at this and they utilise shared parking.

If we get to a point where 1 in 3 cars are an EV, then surely the problem of reserving spaces becomes moot.
Every other car is an EV so will need to be charged somewhere.

The state has put long term projects on the long finger at the expanse of sustainability due to political decisions. I reckon it's these that have lead to the lurching from crisis to crisis.

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

a modern small diesel of similar size is now easily achieving an average of 4l/100km , I drove one recently

and 14kwh is not an average figure either its solely achievable on the Ioniq.

at 4l , and 125 cents per litre , thats 5 euros per 100km, at 22cents per KWh, the equivalent at say 15 kWh/100 Km is €3,30 , the TEN-T reports suggests that 3.5x standard electricity rates is needed for commercialisation , Thats over 11.50 euros for an EV journey that can be accomplished for 5 euros in a diesel ( twice as I said )

Who gets 4l / 100km average in a family size diesel? And who pays a normal rate of 22c/kWh for their electricity?

Both fools I say

Full commercial rates for a nationwide network of FCP is going to be extremely expensive as we only have a few thousand EVs in this country. Not in the interest of the government to let it go full commercial until there is a more solid base of EVs. That's the reason charging is still free. The government needs to intervene until there are say 100k EVs. I seriously doubt that a commercial rate markup of 250% is necessary (and surely big buyers can get a cheaper rate than domestic users). Markup of petrol / diesel is barely 5% these days...

liamog

The RCN report is here

Basically it projects that under the low scenario (10% EV by 2030) 3.5x kWh price would payback in 10 years.
For the central scenario (60% EV by 2030) 2.1x kWh price would be the break even point.

% are for the fleet, not new sales.

unkel

Thanks, I'll have a good look at that later. It's a UK report though. Same country where a 1 minute ride on the metro costs you £5

Saying that a kWh at a FCP in Ireland will cost you €0.80 soon is just scaremongering. It won't happen. Government will keep intervening. Up the price of petrol / diesel by €0.50 in steps over the next 10 years will pay for a lot of the EV subsidies, probably all of them.

liamog

unkel wrote: »

Thanks, I'll have a good look at that later. It's a UK report though. Same country where a 1 minute ride on the metro costs you £5

Saying that a kWh at a FCP in Ireland will cost you €0.80 soon is just scaremongering. It won't happen. Government will keep intervening. Up the price of petrol / diesel by €0.50 in steps over the next 10 years will pay for a lot of the EV subsidies, probably all of them.

UK report funded by the EU, also important to remember that's 2.1 and 3.5 times the cost of electricity to the charger network, not the consumer.

I suspect a spun off eCars would not pay domestic rates.

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

Who gets 4l / 100km average in a family size diesel? And who pays a normal rate of 22c/kWh for their electricity?

Both fools I say

Full commercial rates for a nationwide network of FCP is going to be extremely expensive as we only have a few thousand EVs in this country. Not in the interest of the government to let it go full commercial until there is a more solid base of EVs. That's the reason charging is still free. The government needs to intervene until there are say 100k EVs. I seriously doubt that a commercial rate markup of 250% is necessary (and surely big buyers can get a cheaper rate than domestic users). Markup of petrol / diesel is barely 5% these days...

I was comparing a small modern diesel with a current small EV

the 22 cents is the current day rate unit cost and the TEN-T report suggested 3.5 x was the commercialisation point

I only illustrate it to show that there is not much room in EV costs before you encroach on diesel as a cost , when you think of it hydrocarbons are incredibly cheap , less then some bottled waters ! ( and thats after 60% tax is levied )

This is why I'm entirely sceptical that there is actually a commercial route for public charging at all

Yes, inappropriate pricing regime for public charging could decimate the EV project and set it back years

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

you may find it useful to revise the ESB Ecars proposed charges for the FCP network in Nov 2015.

I looked it up and they suggested €0.30 per minute for FCB. And their proposal was almost instantly shot down.

But even at that rate, that would be 12 minutes charging in the Ioniq to take on 14kWh needed for 100km. So €3.60 and not €11.50 you mention

Or 25c/kWh and not 80c (3.5 x 22c you mention)

And obviously not even rates like these very reasonable rates (far, far cheaper than diesel) are going to happen any time soon.

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

UK report funded by the EU, also important to remember that's 2.1 and 3.5 times the cost of electricity to the charger network, not the consumer.

I suspect a spun off eCars would not pay domestic rates.

ecars proposed pricing regime resulted in an equivalent journey being 1,6 times dearer then diesel in Nov 2015, its was even dearer for the occasional EV FCP user as they paid an access charge as well.

the average charge in Europe is approaching 50 cents a kWh, but time based pricing can be a lot more then that

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

I looked it up and they suggested €0.30 per minute for FCB. And their proposal was almost instantly shot down.

But even at that rate, that would be 12 minutes charging in the Ioniq to take on 14kWh needed for 100km. So €3.60 and not €11.50 you mention

Or 25c/kWh and not 80c (3.5 x 22c you mention)

And obviously not even rates like these very reasonable rates (far, far cheaper than diesel) are going to happen any time soon.

it was not shot down at all. that happened is the CER told ESB that until the issue of ownership was decided it couldnt make that type of decision

no comment was made as to the effect on the EV market

you also need to look at the totality of the ecars proposal including access fees etc

you also need to consider average charging times across a range of EVs including PHEVS, EVs with depleted batteries and those with poor charging efficiencies , rather then min/maxing

as I said the 11.50 is derived from the TEN-T view on commercialisation

note also that no charger at present can provide 70Kw that the ioniq can in theory handle , so you can not recharge in 12 minutes

unkel

That was in 2015 though and no charging yet. And I can't see it being introduced this year, can you?

Let's take a bet. If fast charging in Ireland will cost more than €0.50 / kWh on 01/01/2022, you win. If it's less, I win

Can I put a large amount of money on this bet?

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

I looked it up and they suggested €0.30 per minute for FCB. And their proposal was almost instantly shot down.

But even at that rate, that would be 12 minutes charging in the Ioniq to take on 14kWh needed for 100km. So €3.60 and not €11.50 you mention

Or 25c/kWh and not 80c (3.5 x 22c you mention)

And obviously not even rates like these very reasonable rates (far, far cheaper than diesel) are going to happen any time soon.

why, its very unlikely that the CER decision will be good news in my opinion ( and again see the totality of ecars charges and the fact that you cant charge at 70 Kw )

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

That was in 2015 though and no charging yet. And I can't see it being introduced this year, can you?

Let's take a bet. If fast charging in Ireland will cost more than €0.50 / kWh on 01/01/2022, you win. If it's less, I win

Can I put a large amount of money on this bet?

I dont gamble , but I accept that there is a possibility your right and I hope for the EV situation its ALOT less then that . 50 cents kWh is as dear or maybe dear then diesel and the fact is we are unlikely to get kWh billing here unless the CER has a major major change of heart .

aldi are charging a flat €5 per charge , which in my view is much more likely the way private chargers will price it . A nissan garage in cork also tried "on" a fiver a charge

liamog

Average wholesale market rate for electricity yesterday was €42.50/MWh and the average of 06:00 to 10:30 and 18:00 to 21:30 when costs were highest was €58.08

If I stick to eCars paying 6c/kWh wholesale, the 10% EV Scenario leaves the FCP fee at 20c/kWh..
20c/kWh at a 50kW charger costs about €5 for 30 mins.

In the predicted scenario of 60% EV Adoption it's even less, a 30 min charge should cost around €3.

Sounds like Aldi have it right on the spot.

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

Average wholesale market rate for electricity yesterday was €42.50/MWh and the average of 06:00 to 10:30 and 18:00 to 21:30 when costs were highest was €58.08

If I stick to eCars paying 6c/kWh wholesale, the 10% EV Scenario leaves the FCP fee at 20c/kWh..
20c/kWh at a 50kW charger costs about €5 for 30 mins.

In the predicted scenario of 60% EV Adoption it's even less, a 30 min charge should cost around €3.

Sounds like Aldi have it right on the spot.

I think most people would except in the fullness of time that a charge that worked out near the retail day rate per kWh would be acceptable. ( i.e. 20-22 cents ) This would bring in EVs at around 70% of the cost of diesel

I would expect this to be the position at about 20000 EVs, until then we need sliding scale incentives as EVs are dear to buy and have serious usage limitations . I have campaigned that charging should remain free for 5 years or until 10,000 EVS are registered which ever comes first

however an average of 50 cents per kWh is the norm in Europe

note that time based charging is of course very unfair for people with widely differing EVs. people with older less capable EVs will be subjected to significantly higher real costs at FCPs.

This will hurt people with no home chargers quite badly, but in fairness, apartment dwellers are likely to be low mileage users anyway , those in the burbs, will home charge as will the long commuters

liamog

BoatMad wrote: »

I think most people would except in the fullness of time that a charge that worked out near the retail day rate per kWh would be acceptable. ( i.e. 20-22 cents ) This would bring in EVs at around 70% of the cost of diesel

I would expect this to be the position at about 20000 EVs, until then we need sliding scale incentives as EVs are dear to buy and have serious usage limitations . I have campaigned that charging should remain free for 5 years or until 10,000 EVS are registered which ever comes first

however an average of 50 cents per kWh is the norm in Europe

note that time based charging is of course very unfair for people with widely differing EVs. people with older less capable EVs will be subjected to significantly higher real costs at FCPs.

This will hurt people with no home chargers quite badly, but in fairness, apartment dwellers are likely to be low mileage users anyway , those in the burbs, will home charge as will the long commuters

I think we're agreed on that, your just missing the 'burbs move towards on-street parking the townhouse is the new Semi-D.

unkel

BoatMad wrote: »

retail day rate per kWh would be acceptable. ( i.e. 20-22 cents )

Serious question. Why do you keep quoting 22c/kWh? Surely you don't pay this?
It's 50% more than you should be paying...

@liamog - it's funny you mention the wholesale rate, I just happened to click on the EirGrid site a while ago and the wholesale rate was just over 3c/kWh. I didn't even know this info was publicly available

cros13

unkel wrote: »

the wholesale rate was just over 3c/kWh

In fairness that's the spot price... the prices in power purchase agreements can be lower.

Victor

cros13 wrote: »

Handily the the 110kV network mirrors a lot of the major routes.

Only in a vague sense - large sections of motorways and national routes are 10km+ from the transmission network.

If you can put a housing estate or a factory on a 10kV supply, you can do the same for a charging station with dozens, if not hundreds of cars.

A common 10kV transformer is 630kVA - that's 171 cars at 3.6kW.

cros13

Yeah... we're not talking 3.6kW per vehicle here we're talking up to 400kW plus inverter losses of 10%+ for each of up to eight vehicles.

An 8 bay chargepoint express plus install provides 400kW DC peak per plug, 312kW simultaneous per plug in a pair for a probable minimum MIC of 3MW per site.

This isn't home charging we're talking here... the inverter boxes are specced for 200 - 1000V DC at 1250A if the module loadout can supply it.

So yeah... 38kV network at a minimum... ideally the 110kV to allow for expansion beyond 8 plugs and you also have to account for possible Bus / HGV rapid charging at up 800kW per vehicle for multiple vehicles.

FastNed's similar stations in the netherlands have 630kVA grid connections and with the advent of 350kW rapid charging they are looking to upgrade some of those already.
They'd originally planned for up to eight rapid chargers but only ~50kW each.

Chargepoint Express Plus datasheet if you are interested:
https://www.chargepoint.com/files/datasheets/ds-expressplus.pdf

This isn't long-term stuff. Tesla's supercharger at Nebbenes in Norway has a 2MW grid connection, only supplies a maximum of 135kW per vehicle and still has to load share by de-rating some of the connected vehicles to stay inside it's MIC.

In the real world ESB needs to be thinking about a 150 - 350kW charging infrastructure starting rollout in the next 12 months, and planning for expansion needs to be part of that.

ted1

BoatMad wrote: »

the 22 cents is the current day rate unit cost

Electric Ireland is 17.7c/kWh incl Vat. That's before any direct debit discount or loyalty or new subscribers.

Where are you getting 22c ? You are really playing with numbers to suit yourself

unkel

Energia currently charge 12.67c/kWh incl. VAT

BoatMad

unkel wrote: »

Energia currently charge 12.67c/kWh incl. VAT

You might take an electric Ireland bill and divide the number of units used into the bill amount

Come back then.

Per kWh hour rate makes up half the actual bill for me currently.

unkel

Don't give me that! The margin on the rate will pay for their fixed costs / investments and it will make it fully commercially viable (in the UK). It's included in the 3.5 times full rate.

And you're not seriously saying that you spend as much of your leccy bill on standing charges as on the per kwh charge? That means you use only about 1,000kWh per year (Energia rates). Standing charge 38c / day and kWh charge 13c or something like that. Unless you live like a hermit or generate your own electricity, that can not be true. Even if you didn't have an EV.

liamog

You are picking and choosing numbers to justify your argument.

If I use 1kWh of electricity in a year and maintain a Bord Gais energy connection, it will cost me €149.58. 17.05c is my per kWh rate the rest is the standing charge.
I can't go round claiming that my energy cost is €149.59 per kWh.

A 50kW fast charger used 16 times a day for 30 minutes would use 400kWh a day or 146,000 kWh per year.
If some ineffective business person had set it up and is paying domestic energy rates, they'd be paying €24,969 a year with the same €149.41 standing charge.
Similar they shouldn't claim the energy cost is 17.1c (though at this point it's immaterial.

In reality a commercial operator will be paying much closer to wholesale rates and would likely have a higher standing charge as a larger grid connection is needed, but the illustration is still valid.

BoatMad

liamog wrote: »

You are picking and choosing numbers to justify your argument.

If I use 1kWh of electricity in a year and maintain a Bord Gais energy connection, it will cost me €149.58. 17.05c is my per kWh rate the rest is the standing charge.
I can't go round claiming that my energy cost is €149.59 per kWh.

A 50kW fast charger used 16 times a day for 30 minutes would use 400kWh a day or 146,000 kWh per year.
If some ineffective business person had set it up and is paying domestic energy rates, they'd be paying €24,969 a year with the same €149.41 standing charge.
Similar they shouldn't claim the energy cost is 17.1c (though at this point it's immaterial.

In reality a commercial operator will be paying much closer to wholesale rates and would likely have a higher standing charge as a larger grid connection is needed, but the illustration is still valid.

I think you miss the point , I drew attention to the fact that the Break over point with high efficiency diesel is not much above the " standard " day rate , taking into account standing charges.

What I was illustrating is it's very easy to make EVs uncompetitive versus diesels. place a charge of 50 cents per kWh or add time based pricing and you can find that diesels are cheaper. This computation is what applies to people with no home charging

My commentary was that there is little evidence in Europe that Public chsrge can actually be made commercially viable , especially outside very dense urban environments.

Home charging and longer range will further compound charger economics.


As for me i pay 6.8 cents per night rate. !!

liamog

Home Charging was accounted for in the RCN report when coming up with break even points.

Do we believe more than 10% of the fleet will be EV by 2030?
If so, a fast charging network will only need to charge 3.5x wholesale rate for it to be economically viable.
If 37% it's 2.2x and 2.1 for 60%

I reckon a third of the fleet being plug in vehicles by 2030 is more than achievable.

Doing a quick bit of maths, if a home EVSE costs around €1,000 to supply and install, and we use the medium scenario from the report.
Assuming wholesale rate and night rate are both 6c, And I have to charge our Ioniq to cover 20,000 km per year.

It would take 4 3/4 years for the EVSE to payoff compared to using paid fast chargers at the suggested 2.2 rate.
Or 2 1/4 years if we get stuck at 10% and they have to set fees at 3.5x