Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2017.

star gazer

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/901904799339302912
Advisories starting on tropical Cyclone 10 which already put a lot of rain on parts of Florida.

Meteorite58

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten.


Very early to say how this one might effect us but at the moment to me the models showing it running out of power and dispersing just off the W of Ireland around next Sun or so as it comes up against a HP system centered over the UK. Too early to say how windy or wet .

star gazer

I was premature in not calling it a "potential" tropical cyclone. Though it may (40% chance) or may not fully become one, that doesn't mean it doesn't pack a punch further on: Discussion 7

INIT 29/0900Z 33.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1800Z 35.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z 39.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z 41.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0600Z 44.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 55.0N 19.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

As Meteorite58 pointed out above, there's potential for this to impact on Ireland later on in some weakened shape.

Also another potential near Cape Verde.

star gazer

It'll be a little time before it can be reasonably accurately forecast where Irma will end up and how big a threat (if any at all) it is to populated areas but for now it is forecast to develop quite a bit over the Atlantic.

Kermit.de.frog

Be watching this one for a while!

star gazer

Hurricane Irma has developed very quickly with max sustained winds up to 155km/h already (Category 2 hurricane), 979mb min central pressure.
It is forecast to become a major hurricane in the next 12 hours. It is definitely one to watch over the coming five days to see where it is going to be headed after that and how intensely it may have developed. Right now it is a fair bit from any land, about 3,000km East.

savj2

Looking at the models for Irma and no doubt they could change many times, GFS has the storm moving up the Carolina coast and merging with an upper trough.

Currently the GFS is showing a Super Storm Sandy like scenario by the 11th September.

The ECM model shows the storm going over the Florida keys and into the Gulf where it would strengthen again.

Early days of course but this hurricane could be the biggest of the lot this season.

hatrickpatrick

Irma is now rapidly intensifying. There's talk on Wunderground of a potential Eyewall Replacement Cycle which may be just getting underway, in which case intensification will temporarily stall, but it's being widely predicted that this thing will easily reach category four before it even gets as far as the Lesser Antilles. I don't think I've ever heard of rapid intensification occurring this deep into the MDR before - usually the term is associated with either the Gulf of Mexico, or the West Atlantic just East of Florida. With RI occurring this far out, the storm's potential track as well as future intensity is anyone's guess.

Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico seem to be radically different in Harvey's wake - not only is there more wind shear there now, but Harvey has dredged cold water up from the deep, so there isn't as much potential in that region as there was when Harvey first traversed it - although a lot can change in a week, and the NHC is already forecasting a possible tropical depression developing there after the weekend.

BumperD

Cat 3 confirmed and still strengthening. The Euro models have proved more accurate. This storm is taking a very strange path and may break rules and lots more if it hits the islands.

BumperD

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


https://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=2090&MediaTypeID=1

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-intensifying-eastern-atlantic-big-long-range-questions

bnt

I suspect Hurricane Irma will be getting its own thread soon. Forecast strengthening is modest for the next few days, but then it looks like it will hit much warmer water off the Antilles islands, and then we're off to the races.

The chances of Irma crossing in to the Gulf of Mexico are getting lower, forecasts trending more towards a move up the east coast. It's still early days, though.

Gaoth Laidir

The Atlantic season's activity so far is normal, as measured by the latest ACE figure.



Overall, the total global tropical activity is well below normal so far, with only about 83% of the climatological ACE acheived. The NW Pacific, despite the large SST anomalies, is only at 64%.

There is also a small feature further southeast of Irma, at about 10N, that could become something in a few days. It's down as 0% potential development in the next 48 hours, but the models over the past few days have been showing a small but deep system developing and moving towards the southern Windwards, which is about as far south as hurricanes can develop due to little or no Coriolis force that near to the Equator.

Rikand

Looking at this twitter video of Irma's path, that *Disturbance* behind seems to turn out towards the north Atlantic by day5. If true, future TS Jose will be no threat to much of anyone


https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904747133210898436

^^ credit meteorite58 for that link in hurricane Irma thread

star gazer

Tropical Storm Jose is forecast to become a Hurricane shortly and unfortunately it may have some impact on islands already heavily impacted by Hurricane Irma



Katia does not look like moving towards the Houston area so badly hit by Harvey, though it may come close to Hurricane strength before making landfall near where it is now in Mexico, with Mexico city potentially getting the Depression left over from TS Katia to move nearby.

bnt

bnt wrote: »

I suspect Hurricane Irma will be getting its own thread soon.

Yep - here it is.

hatrickpatrick

Jose and Katia have now formed (the first ever Hurricane Katia in 2011 some of ye might remember as having ended up in Ireland as a post-tropical storm was a very wet and windy weekend in Dublin and I can only imagine what it might have been like in the southwest where it first made landfall here. Katia looks set to hit Mexico, but before it can reach hurricane strength. Jose's track on the models is fairly erratic - I'd imagine this won't be the actual track, but that they're having trouble forecasting it because of the remaining uncertainty as to what Irma will end up doing. As it stands, it's due to stall just off the southeast coast near Florida and the Carolinas, and meander in a loop around there while strengthening considerably And finally, both the GFS and ECM predict yet another tropical wave to arrive in the Atlantic around day 8/9 and develop almost immediately into a tropical storm, skipping the tropical depression stage.

star gazer

Jose has increased to Hurricane strength with the forecast putting it up to Major Hurricane strength in around 48 hours. Still some impact potential on islands hit by Hurricane Irma in two days.

star gazer

Katia is also now a hurricane. It's a tough time to be a forecaster, but it is such an important job when the impacts of the weather can be (and right now are) so severe for people. Knowing where the danger is going to be next is so vital for saving lives.

hatrickpatrick

star gazer wrote: »

Katia is also now a hurricane. It's a tough time to be a forecaster, but it is such an important job when the impacts of the weather can be (and right now are) so severe for people. Knowing where the danger is going to be next is so vital for saving lives.

NONE of the models saw that coming when Katia first formed :eek: There's obviously something going on this year akin to 2005, wherein some factor the models can't take into account is causing storms to repeatedly outperform expectations.

Meteorite58

Interesting piece here about the weight of the water that fell from Harvey causing the Heuston area to sink by 2cm.




https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2017/09/hurricane-harvey-deformed-the-earths-crust-around-houston/538866/

star gazer

Major Hurricane Jose 195km/h 120mph 966mb It is so cruel that it is forecast to have a potentially dangerous impact on Barbuda.
Katia is a slow moving Hurricane with potentially 600mm in isolated parts of Mexico.
There's still plenty of work to get done on understanding Hurricanes hatrickpatrick, but to be fair when you think of the destructive power of Irma going over those islands like barbuda, there were days warning and people got themselves into safer buildings so there has been a lot of good work done researching likely Hurricane tracks already and what people should do with the warnings.

Calina

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

star gazer wrote: »

Katia is also now a hurricane. It's a tough time to be a forecaster, but it is such an important job when the impacts of the weather can be (and right now are) so severe for people. Knowing where the danger is going to be next is so vital for saving lives.

NONE of the models saw that coming when Katia first formed :eek: There's obviously something going on this year akin to 2005, wherein some factor the models can't take into account is causing storms to repeatedly outperform expectations.

Weather systems are highly complex and we don't fully understand them yet. But we learn every time so ultimately the models improve over time as more information and data feeds into them - and clearly have. I doubt it is 'some factor' and more likely a combination of factors that still leads to learning events.

But what we have is improvement on a large scale. Ars Technica wrote a piece on how the European model is currently outperforming US models - in part to highlight how the US systens have been left behind to some extent. But by definition it demonstrates improvements in human capability over time too.

Simon Gruber Says

Not a good weekend for Mexico. Hurricane Katia moving ashore on the east coast and a Magnitude 8.4 earthquake with tsunami on the west coast.

Gaoth Laidir

José is now Cat 4.

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS JOSE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds in Jose have increased to near 150 mph (240
km/h), making Jose an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane.
This intensity change will be reflected in the upcoming 1100 AM
AST (1500 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION

---

LOCATION...16.2N 56.9W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Rougies

https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/906162786736230400

Katia, Irma & Jose. Eyes visible on all 3.

sryanbruen

Very similar resemblance to 2010 right now with the hurricane names and distribution.

Meteorite58

Wouldn't like to be betting where Jose will end up.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/coreyspowell/status/907231775499411457

Gaoth Laidir

Typhoon Talim has strengthened to 105 knots now and is heading straight for Japan over the weekend. It brought several hours of hurricane-force sustained winds to Shimojijima Island today.

METAR RORS 132200Z 21040G52KT 1500 R35/0900VP1800D +SHRA FEW006 BKN015 FEW020CB 26/25 Q0997
METAR RORS 131000Z 29068G87KT 1500 R35/0400V0800N +SHRA FEW004 BKN012 FEW020CB 26/25 Q0970
METAR RORS 130900Z 30072G92KT 1500 R35/0200V0300N +SHRA FEW003 SCT005 BKN012 FEW020CB 26/26 Q0968
METAR RORS 130800Z 30066G85KT 1500 R35/0300V0700U +SHRA FEW004 SCT007 BKN015 FEW020CB 26/25 Q0972
METAR RORS 130700Z 32068G88KT 1500 R35/0250V0700U +SHRA FEW005 SCT007 BKN015 FEW020CB 26/25 Q0974
METAR RORS 130600Z 33067G86KT 1500 R35/0300V0550U +SHRA FEW004 SCT007 BKN015 FEW020CB 26/26 Q0975
METAR RORS 130500Z 33065G85KT 1500 R35/0350V0650U +SHRA FEW005 SCT008 BKN015 FEW020CB 26/25 Q0979