Hurricanes/Typhoons/Cyclones of 2017.

Meteorite58

Tropical Storm Ophelia becomes the 15th named storm of this Atlantic Hurricane season. Set to intensify over the next couple of days, meandering slowly at the moment and the models showing it pass close to the Azores. Where to after that and in what shape and strength ?





https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/917508962349670400

M.T. Cranium

Model consensus at this point is impressive for such a distant and weak system, and I have to say that any track into any part of Europe or the eastern Atlantic is in play, also that model runs may change a lot from day to day.

Obviously if the current models are correct then a rather significant wind event will occur Monday especially in Connacht and west Ulster. Not quite Debbie-like but a similar sort of evolution.

However we won't have any real certainty about this for at least two days yet. It could still be more like an October 1987 track or something more of concern to Spain or France. A hurricane hit Spain in 1842 around this time of year, so it's not entirely unknown.

star gazer

The 10th consecutive Hurricane of this year's Atlantic season is forecast to develop in the coming hours.
Ophelia getting close to a familiar island on day five.


NHC discussion

INIT 11/1500Z 30.0N 36.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 29.9N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.1N 35.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 30.8N 34.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 34.0N 26.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 40.0N 17.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 16/1200Z 51.5N 12.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Meteorite58

A deadly natural beauty.

https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/918150815151509504

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/918165916067815426

https://twitter.com/heoltom/status/918164828585328642

https://twitter.com/MetAlertIreland/status/918162677423276036

Meteorite58

Close up of the GFS 12z run. Nothing for certain, a long way off. A lot of the models are predicting ex Ophelia to drift more off shore.

M.T. Cranium

Just checking the historical record, Debbie (1961) was a faster moving and larger hurricane that was near Ophelia's current position just 48 hours before arriving in Ireland (on 16th Sept 1961). The track that Debbie took from that location was through the central Azores and at 12z on 15th the location was 42N 22W. Ophelia is modelled to run south of this track from now to Sunday night and then in most cases to end up crossing Debbie's track around 50N but the GFS 12z has shifted east and brings the extratropical Ophelia very close to Debbie's path during the critical period after 50N.

The latest run of the GEM model has also shifted east, the 00z run had a strong windstorm for eastern Ireland and now the 12z run looks more like the October 1987 storm's track through Brittany into south central England. That track would just mean moderate winds and rain for Ireland.

The Arpege model (12z) is similar to last night's ECM with a track running far enough west to avoid damaging wind gusts on land in Ireland (although worryingly close to the Atlantic coast, would estimate 70 knot winds as close as 13W as this depicted storm goes past Galway and Mayo.)

So at this very moment the ECM 12z run has reached day 5 Monday (drum roll) and shows an intense storm hammering Kerry, Cork and Clare on Monday. ... this is sure to cause forecast concerns at pay scales that you and I can only imagine. You could easily imagine 70-80 knot wind gusts from the map that just appeared, there's a 965 mb low about 70 miles southwest of Valentia heading just east of due north. Isobars are as tightly packed as with Darwin (12 Feb 2014 IIRC).

Too early to be very confident of any outcome but all models have shifted east in the last 12 hours and that tends to place Ireland in the cross-hairs.

JanuarySnowstor

Indeed MT perhaps it's own thread is warranted.
ELM and gfs going for a direct hit in the south west

M.T. Cranium

You are right, a thread is justified, in the works if not posted by somebody else in the meantime.

LordSutch

Just watched the RTE 9;30 pm weather forecast and thought they had discovered a new hurricane, by the name of ExOphelia!

Very weird hearing Siobhan Ryan talking about ex,ophelia as if it were something we should all know about, and it did ring a bell, but I couldn't put my finger on it, then I flicked over to the BBC and heard about Ex Hurricane "Ophelia" Ah ha I thought, and the penny dropped.....

The hurricane is/was called Ophelia, but now its an Ex Hurricane.

Listen up RTE/Met Eireann.

Gaoth Laidir

LordSutch wrote: »

Just watched the RTE 9;30 pm weather forecast and thought they had discovered a new hurricane, by the name of ExOphelia!

Very weird hearing Siobhan Ryan talking about ex,ophelia as if it were something we should all know about, and it did ring a bell, but I couldn't put my finger on it, then I flicked over to the BBC and heard about Ex Hurricane "Ophelia" Ah ha I thought, and the penny dropped.....

The hurricane is/was called Ophelia, but now its an Ex Hurricane.

Listen up RTE/Met Eireann.

Eh, you're a bit late to the party. Go over here and catch up. Already 650 posts and going strong.

Cantona's Collars

Super Typhoon Lan bearing down on Japan, gusts of 252kph measured.

aidanodr

Cantona's Collars wrote: »

Super Typhoon Lan bearing down on Japan, gusts of 252kph measured.

http://mashable.com/2017/10/20/super-typhoon-lan-threatens-japan/#K_58sOXUdOql

Super Typhoon Lan has been undergoing rapid intensification on Thursday night and Friday, and may reach Category 5 intensity by Saturday morning. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 150 miles per hour as of Friday afternoon, eastern time, and was still slowly intensifying.

Super Typhoon Lan is in a favorable environment for strengthening, and is likely on a collision course with highly populated areas of Japan while in a weaker, but still formidable state.

One characteristic of this storm that's clear from satellite imagery is that it has developed a massive eye about 50 miles in diameter. To put that into perspective, if you put the center of the storm on top of Manhattan, it would encompass parts of New Jersey, the lower Hudson Valley of New York, southwestern Connecticut, and western Long Island.

Donegal Storm

Don't think I've ever seen such a well defined eye..

Gaoth Laidir

Not looking so hot now as shear is tearing it asunder. It will still make a direct hit on Tokyo as probably a Cat 1 extratropical.

DOCARCH

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

It will still make a direct hit on Tokyo as probably a Cat 1 extratropical.

Yellow or Orange warning only?

Gaoth Laidir

Well, the thing about Ophelia was.....

Anyway, a Red has been issued for most of the country except northern Honshu and Hokkaiddo, but a lot of it in the west is for heavy rain. Looks like making landfall as a Cat1/borderline 2. Much more severe than Ophelia...;)

Gaoth Laidir

Actually a very bad outlook for landslides in some very populated areas...

Donegal Storm

It's election day as well in Japan today so likely plenty of people who'll want to be out and about

Great shot from the ISS..

Cantona's Collars

Donegal Storm wrote: »

It's election day as well in Japan today so likely plenty of people who'll want to be out and about

Great shot from the ISS..

Will it affect bin day in Dublin? :)

Gaoth Laidir

Miyake-tsubota (Miyakejima Airport, 20 m amsl)) reported sustained wind of 34.9 m/s (68 kt/126 kph) and a gust of 47.3 m/s (92 kt/170 kph).

Gaoth Laidir

Live webcam in Shibuya, Tokyo. Not a bother on them.

Gaoth Laidir

Kisarazu Airbase (6 m) across Tokyo Bay just a gust of 70 knots a while ago.

SPECI RJTK 222114Z 19049G70KT 1500 SHRA BR FEW005 SCT008 BKN010 22/19 Q0968 RMK 2ST005 4ST008 6CU010 A2860 P/RR

Tokyo's Haneda airport 48 gust 66 knots

METAR RJTT 222000Z 17048G66KT 5000 -SHRA BR FEW010 SCT015 BKN020 22/21 Q0966 NOSIG

Still people are walking to work.

Gaoth Laidir

Now Cyclone 27 looks like heading for Japan too...

Gaoth Laidir

TD Eighteen has formed in the NW Caribbean and looks like crossing Cuba and the Bahamas as Tropical Storm Philippe.

Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017
1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the low pressure system located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation
center. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection
has developed and persisted in the inner-core region since
yesterday. Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded
to Tropical Depression Eighteen.

sdanseo

Tropical Depression 19 has formed in the Atlantic.

Looks to strengthen to a 50kt tropical storm and make a beeline for Donegal while being absorbed into a more traditional Atlantic system. Once to keep an eye on but certainly no Hurricane.