April 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

MAX 18.7 and MIN --1.2 after the 8th (two locations for each)

MIN is not done yet, I would say, MAX probably not either (but could take a while).

Tae laidir

Models indicating that South & South-East have best chance of (not very) sunny Easter Sunday.

pauldry

Yup anywhere in the North and West looks screwed for sun hours... maybe Belmullet which has its own climate independent to the rest of Ireland.

Also looks like IMT is going down for the rest of April.

We are stuck in a Northwest flow more or less.

This has happened before in recent Summers and its hard to get rid of once its locked in.

Id say well be lucky if any of us finish right on the money with IMT.

Looking like a 8.0c month at best now possibly 7.5c

I went for 22.8c max too:rolleyes:. What country was I thinking of?

sryanbruen

pauldry wrote: »

Yup anywhere in the North and West looks screwed for sun hours... maybe Belmullet which has its own climate independent to the rest of Ireland.

Also looks like IMT is going down for the rest of April.

We are stuck in a Northwest flow more or less.

This has happened before in recent Summers and its hard to get rid of once its locked in.

Id say well be lucky if any of us finish right on the money with IMT.

Looking like a 8.0c month at best now possibly 7.5c

I went for 22.8c max too:rolleyes:. What country was I thinking of?

Meanwhile, the rainfall looks like being significantly below average.

Rikand

Tae laidir wrote: »

Models indicating that South & South-East have best chance of (not very) sunny Easter Sunday.

Come on Johnstown Castle

pauldry

A this rate 1hr will win on Sunday

Another wet one

Thats 7/9 wet Sundays for Sligo
1/9 wet Saturdays ....interesting

M.T. Cranium

Week two update ...

IMT once again averaged 9.0, this time it was 0.6 above normal, so the month to date is at 9.0 C.

PRC also very similar at 29%, Malin Head being the only station to reach normal, and that leaves the month at 32%.

SUN followed the trend of similar values at 70%, which makes it 71% for the month.

M.T. Cranium

Bonus question results --

Only 3.1 hrs of sun at Malin Head for the highest amount. (3 pts to only Tae laidir)

Belmullet and Johnstown Castle had 2.5 hours each. (2 pts to about half the crew)

Next in line were Casement (1.9) and Dublin (1.5). (1 pt for a few more)

So those locations will earn 3, 2 and 1 point.

As to the other seven points available, these groups of forecasts will get the following scores:

waterways with low forecast of 4.0h, JPmarn (5.5), Dacogawa (5.8), Tae laidir (5.9) will score 7 (and 2 extra for Tae laidir, superbonus)

JXC BXC (6.0h), sunflower3 (6.5h), (NormaL at 6.9h), Kindred Spirit 7.0h and dasa29 also at 7.0h, will get 6.

MrSkinner (7.1h) and M.T. Cranium (7.5h) score 5.

Pauldry (7.8h), Rikand and mickger844posts (both 8.0h, also Con Sensus) are at 4.

Bsal (8.7h), John mac (8.9h) and 200motels (9.0h), share 3 points.

Then it's DOCARCH (9.2h), sdanseo (9.6h) and Rameire (9.8h) at 2 points.

Low scores for higher than 10h (1 pt) for sryanbruen, Water John and Joe Public.

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Tae laidir

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Only 3.1 hrs of sun at Malin Head for the highest amount.

Interesting (to me anyway) Malin Head was also the wettest, almost twice as much as Knock in second.

M.T. Cranium

After three weeks ...

IMT now on 9.2, after a week that averaged 9.3 (0.4 above normal). This will probably fall to about 8.4 with the cold weather expected, before perhaps recovering slightly to finish near 8.5 C.

PRC continues very low, now only 30% of normal after the week finished at 28%. Although the rest of the month could be close to normal, that will still see an outcome around 50% of normal.

SUN is down to 64% as the week managed only 49% of normal. It would take an average of almost twice normal values from today to 30th to bring this back to 100% and the outlook is not that sunny, perhaps 110% which would boost the average to about 75% of normal at the end of the month.

No changes to max or min yet.

Water John

Yesterday must have been close to max value in places. Car was reading 19, which I accept isn't wholly accurate, near Macroom, Co. Cork.

John mac

Water John wrote: »

Yesterday must have been close to max value in places. Car was reading 19, which I accept isn't wholly accurate, near Macroom, Co. Cork.

my car got to 22 in macroom yesterday ..
and 20 in Killarney

Water John

mac, you must have been parked up.
Looks like we'll hit the lowest of the month next week.

pauldry

No yesterday only got 16c

Next week wont be as cold as previously thought.

8 to 11c and zero at night

Still cold but scotland only snow place

John mac

Water John wrote: »

mac, you must have been parked up.
Looks like we'll hit the lowest of the month next week.

yea it was ,:D:D
it was 17 when driving in Killarney though.

Joe Public

About -2 C in Casement this morning

Tae laidir

Joe Public wrote: »

About -2 C in Casement this morning

-2.0 confirmed for Casement for yesterday.
Ogimet indicating Casement -2.3 last night.

Tae laidir

New Min. Casement -2.2 yesterday.

M.T. Cranium

I worked out that the IMT on the 26th was only 5.0 C, below normal even in the heart of winter. There seems little chance that the established max will be changed before end of the month. Update for week four will follow on Saturday and the monthly values should be all but nailed down by then too.

M.T. Cranium

There was a lot of missing data for 28th which meant that the fourth week updates need some estimated values ...

IMT is now around 8.7, the fourth week was rather cold at 7.0 to 7.5 C. This should finish around 8.7 now.

PRC continues very low at around 30% with this past week not much different from that overall average. However, a lot of rain is expected tonight and 30th, the month may finish closer to 50% but will still likely necessitate the always popular minimum progression (mercy rule) scoring.

SUN has improved to about 70% with a week in the 90 to 100 per cent range, and cloudy weather on 29th and 30th will keep this at least that low.

I guess we'll have the actual figures by the 3rd as Monday is a holiday.

M.T. Cranium

The monthly data section of the met-ie website appear to be updated for all of April so based on that being accurate, I find that the IMT was 8.8, and the PRC a measly 32 per cent of normal (a far cry from even our lowest forecasts of 85%). Waterways and DOCARCH were right on that mark, congrats.

As a group punishment I propose that the PRC scores be scaled from 1 to 12 out of 15 with the two best ones getting 12 and then 11 for the next two, going on down the list in pairs until it can switch to one score per forecast. That's going to be pretty generous to everybody given the epic fail factor.

Sunshine is just going to have to wait for the MS, I have only a vague idea given the missing data, but it's probably below the lowest of our forecasts which was 89% from JCX BXC (whose name I mangled in the table of forecasts). So that's likely to be scored somewhat mercifully as well.

The MAX is likely to turn out at 18.7 which is also lower than all forecasts, only Tae laidir (19.5) would have scored many points the usual way (12 points) and most would be zero, so I will start off with 19 for that effort and go down the list.

The MIN seems to be --2.2 which is just outside the range of forecasts (other than NormaL) but three said --2.1 so they will all be sharing 19 points and the forecasts will be scored normally.

Since we have these probable scoring certainties despite not knowing the actual SUN value, I will post a provisional scoring table that will be amended if necessary on the third when the MS is available.

M.T. Cranium

Confirmed scoring for April 2017


FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN ____ Bonus _____ TOTALS

_____ confirmed values ___8.8_18.7_-2.2_032_068 __ see post 17th


Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 19 _ 11 _ 11 _ 03 ____ 7+3 +2 _____ 76
DOCARCH ______________ 25 _ 15 _ 19 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 2 + 2 _______ 74
Dasa29 ________________ 23 _ 18 _ 13 _ 05 _ 04 ____ 6 + 0 _______ 69
sdanseo ________________24 _ 12 _ 19 _ 04 _ 05 ____ 2 + 2 _______ 68
MrSkinner ______________ 22 _ 07 _ 19 _ 09 _ 04 ____ 5 + 0 _______ 66
Rameire ________________23 _ 14 _ 18 _ 04 _ 05 ____ 2 + 0 _______ 66
mickger844posts_________ 19 _ 16 _ 08 _ 10 _ 04 ____ 4 + 2 _______ 63

NormaL ________________ 21 _ 11 _ 12 _ 05 _ 06 ____ 6 + 2 _______ 63

Con Sensus _____________ 23_ 11 _ 11 _ 07 _ 04 ____ 4 + 2 _______ 62

waterjohn ______________ 23 _ 07 _ 18 _ 06 _ 05 ____ 1 + 2 _______ 62
John mac _______________24 _ 09 _ 18 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 3 + 0 _______ 62
sryanbruen _____________ 22 _ 14 _ 08 _ 10 _ 04 ____ 1 + 1 _______ 60
Bsal ___________________24 _ 17 _ 06 _ 03 _ 04 ____ 3 + 1 _______ 58
Pauldry ________________ 23 _ 04 _ 09 _ 11 _ 04 ____ 4 + 1 _______ 56
M.T. Cranium ___________ 19 _ 03 _ 16 _ 10 _ 03 ____ 5 + 0 _______ 56
sunflower3 _____________ 21 _ 11 _ 11 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 6 + 2 _______ 56
Kindred Spirit ___________ 21 _ 12 _ 08 _ 04 _ 03 ____ 6 + 2 _______ 56
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______ 15 _ 11 _ 13 _ 12 _ 02 ____ 7+0 __ 60-5 = 55
Rikand _________________ 23 _ 05 _ 08 _ 10 _ 02 ____ 4 + 2 _______ 54
200motels ______________ 22 _ 06 _ 08 _ 08 _ 04 ____ 3 + 1 _______ 52
Dacogawa ______________ 24 _ 02 _ 09 _ 01 _ 08 ____ 7 + 0 _______ 51
JCX BXC________________ 21 _ 05 _ 03 _ 01 _ 09 ____ 6 + 2 _______ 47
Joe Public ___ (-3) _______ 14 _ 01 _ 17 _ 12 _ 02 ____ 1+2 __ 49-3 = 46
waterways ____ (-50) _____25 _ 09 _ 13 _ 02 _ 06 ____ 7 + 0 _ 62-50=12

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The provisional scores are confirmed now, note that MAX and PRC had substantial boosts from the minimum progression, and SUN was adjusted by 2 points for all, then one score was further adjusted to provide one high score of 9/10.

Congrats to Tae laidir, DOCARCH and dasa29 for leading the way in April, I think Tae laidir had 58 points even before the boosting operation, and would have lead by a larger margin without that.
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Jpmarn

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Table of Forecasts for April 2017


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Max sun 16th

Joe Public ___ (-3) _______ 9.9 _ 24.9 _ -1.9 _ 085 _ 120 ___ 10.2h Belmullet
Jpmarn _____ (-5) _______ 9.8 _ 21.5 _ -1.5 _ 085 _ 120 ____ 5.5h Shannon
M.T. Cranium ___________ 9.4 _ 23.0 _ -1.8 _ 090 _ 115 ____ 7.5h Cork
mickger844posts_________ 9.4 _ 20.6 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas
Tae laidir ______________ 9.3 _ 19.5 _ -1.3 _ 088 _ 113 ____ 5.9h Malin
sunflower3 _____________ 9.2 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 105 _ 115 ____ 6.5h Johns Cas
Kindred Spirit ___________ 9.2 _ 21.5 _ -1.0 _ 102 _ 116 ____ 7.0h Johns Cas
200motels ______________9.1 _ 22.2 _ -1.0 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 9.0h Dublin A
MrSkinner ______________ 9.1 _ 22.1 _ -2.1 _ 091 _ 111 ____ 7.1h Cork
sryanbruen _____________ 9.1 _ 21.0 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 10.0h Dublin A
Rikand _________________9.0 _ 22.5 _ -1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

Con Sensus _____________ 9.0 _ 21.7 _ -1.3 _ 092 _ 111 ____ 8.0h Johns Cas

sdanseo ________________8.9 _ 21.4 _ -2.1 _ 104 _ 108 ____ 9.6h Johns Cas
Pauldry ________________ 9.0 _ 22.8 _ -1.1 _ 088 _ 111 ____ 7.8h Dublin A
Dasa29 ________________ 9.0 _ 20.0 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ____ 7.0h Valentia
Dacogawa ______________ 8.9 _ 23.8 _ -1.1 _ 111 _ 091 ____ 5.8h Valentia
DOCARCH ______________ 8.8 _ 20.7 _ -2.1 _ 094 _ 112 ____ 9.2h Johns Cas
John mac _______________8.7 _ 22.0 _ -2.0 _ 110 _ 102 ____ 8.9h Shannon
Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 20.3 _ -0.8 _ 105 _ 112 ____ 8.7h Casement
waterjohn ______________ 8.6 _ 22.1 _ -2.0 _ 095 _ 105 ___ 10.1 Johns Cas
Rameire _______________ 8.6 _ 21.0 _ -2.0 _ 103 _ 105 ____ 9.8h Valentia
JXC BXC________________8.4 _ 22.5 _ -0.5 _ 115 _ 089 ____ 6.0h Johns Cas

NormaL ________________ 8.4 _ 21.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ____ 6.9h (see note)
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First of all, welcome to Danseo and Water John, hope you enjoy the contest.

Con Sensus is currently 11th ranked (median) value of 21 forecasts. I can see two regulars not on board yet, so this could change.

For the normal value of maximum sunshine, I took the overall average of all stations (about 4.6 hours) and added 50% for random distribution. As to how NormaL might score for location, I will give them 3 points if it's Belmullet or Johnstown Castle, 2 if any station in Munster or Casement, and 1 elsewhere. For you, the points are determined by the three stations that finish 1-2-3 on the day.

The reputation of the sunny southeast has influenced the picks, I think. Johnstown Castle got 8 votes. Valentia and Dublin A had 3 votes, Cork and Shannon 2 each, Belmullet, Casement and Malin 1 apiece. There was no love for Gurteen or Knock.

In general, our crew looks for a warmer than average April with somewhat less rain and more sun than average. Nobody went below the 1981-2010 average of 8.4 C, one placed their bet on the tie.

Well, good luck to everyone.

Just for convenience to compare your entry with your scores.

M.T. Cranium

We now have confirmation of MAX and MIN from the Monthly Summary, and the SUN official figures are 68% (the six stations averaged 106 hours and a normal year would see 156 as the average, all six locations have similar averages between 5.1 and 5.3 hours a day, and in 2017 the southwest did a little better than the other locations but all six were below normal.)

I am going back to the table to check scoring, and still have the edit available, will probably change the title rather than any scores unless I spot errors, will note any errors in the edit explanation.

Then will be posting the annual update after I return from my coffee run. It is a wet day here, enjoy your bright and in some cases warm late afternoon and evening.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to April 2017

The table continues to be organized on the basis of total score but starting this month I will add the developing "best ten of twelve" main scoring title, from April to August this will show all but one low score, then from September to December, all but two low scores to date, for comparison, and the table will switch to being organized on that basis in September.

Ranks for Con Sensus and NormaL depend on how many regular forecasters (not counting each other) are ahead of them, but all regulars who are behind either of them get their ranking as if Con and NormaL were not present. If either one is tied with a forecaster, their rank shows "tied" but the forecaster's rank does not (unless they are also tied with another forecaster).

Another new feature this month is that your rank from March appears (in brackets) beside your current rank to illustrate how you're doing in the race. Where you were tied in March with another forecaster, that is dropped for spacing reasons. This will also apply next month to the ranks for the best x out of x+1 part as well.


rank/ FORECASTER ______ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR ___ TOTAL _____ Best 3 of 4 (rank)

01 (02) mickger844posts __ 74 __ 54 __ 73 __ 63 ____ 264 ______ 210 (2)

02 (04) Con Sensus _______59 __ 66 __ 74 __ 62 ____ 261 ______ 202 (t3)

02 (06) DOCARCH ________ 47 __ 73 __ 65 __ 74 ____ 259 ______ 212 (1)
03 (01) pauldry __________ 74 __ 66 __ 62 __ 56 ____ 258 ______ 202 (3)
04 (09) Tae laidir _________ 68 __ 57 __ 56 __ 76 ____ 257 ______ 201 (t4)
05 (04) John mac _________ 58 __ 59 __ 76 __ 62 ____ 255 ______ 197 (7)
06 (05) Kindred Spirit ______54 __ 78 __ 55 __ 56 ____ 243 ______ 189 (9)
07 (09) sryanbruen ________43 __ 76 __ 62 __ 60 ____ 241 ______ 198 (6)
08 (08) Rikand ___________ 54 __ 63 __ 66 __ 54 ____ 237 ______ 183 (t12)
09 (07) 200motels ________ 64 __ 51 __ 69 __ 52 ____ 236 ______ 185 (10)

10 (13) NormaL __________ 43 __ 68 __ 61 __ 63 ____ 235 ______ 192 (9)

10 (15) Dasa29 ___________55 __ 49 __ 59 __ 69 ____ 232 ______ 183 (t12)
11 (14) Rameire __________ 57 __ 56 __ 52 __ 66 ____ 231 ______ 179 (15)
12 (11) M.T. Cranium ______ 53 __ 46 __ 75 __ 56 ____ 230 ______ 184 (11)
13 (13) Bsal ______________49 __ 58 __ 60 __ 58 ____ 225 ______ 176 (16)
14 (17) MrSkinner _________50 __ 66 __ 41 __ 66 ____ 223 ______ 182 (14)
15 (16) Jpmarn ___________ 70 __ 70 __ 22 __ 55 ____ 217 ______ 195 (8)
16 (18) sunflower3 ________ 46 __ 48 __ 62 __ 56 ____ 212 ______ 166 (19)
17 (02) Lumi _____________ 57 __ 72 __ 72 __ --- ____ 201 ______ 201 (t4)
18 (19) Joe Public _________ 36 __ 57 __ 54 __ 46 ____ 193 ______ 157 (21)
19 (11) waterways _________49 __ 58 __ 67 __ 12 ____ 186 ______ 174 (17)
20 (20) JCX BXC __________ --- __ 60 __ 63 __ 47 ____ 170 ______ 170 (18)
21 (21) Dacogawa _________ 46 __ 62 __ --- __ 51 ____ 159 ______ 159 (20)
22 (---) sdanseo ___________ --- __ --- __ --- __ 68 _____68
23 (---) waterjohn __________--- __ --- __ --- __ 62 _____62

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Not much separation between scores at this point really, especially in the best 3 of 4. Congrats to mickger844posts for being the lone forecaster ahead of Con Sensus in both scoring categories, and to DOCARCH for joining that same distinction in the best 3 of 4.