Britain to go to war with Spain over Gibraltar ?

ohnonotgmail

Stars and Stripes wrote: »

A case of the flea wagging the tail Tac ? I'd doubt if Spain and it's military are quaking in their boots I'd imagine that Gibraltar's 'economy' would consist of little more than jobs dealing with British govt red tape, tourism (how will all those tourists access the rock if the Spanish govt cuts it off ? ) and of course dodgy off shore banks to facilitate tax cheating and money laundering.

As for Spain's jobless rate, it's fallen to a seven-year low, though the Spanish army wouldn't be preparing invasion plans yet Tac.
https://www.thelocal.es/20170126/good-news-spains-jobless-rate-just-fell-to-a-seven-year-low

2/10

gallag

Stars and Stripes wrote: »

A case of the flea wagging the tail Tac ? I'd doubt if Spain and it's military are quaking in their boots I'd imagine that Gibraltar's 'economy' would consist of little more than jobs dealing with British govt red tape, tourism (how will all those tourists access the rock if the Spanish govt cuts it off ? ) and of course dodgy off shore banks to facilitate tax cheating and money laundering.

As for Spain's jobless rate, it's fallen to a seven-year low, though the Spanish army wouldn't be preparing invasion plans yet Tac.
https://www.thelocal.es/20170126/good-news-spains-jobless-rate-just-fell-to-a-seven-year-low

To be fair x year low is a terrible way to disseminate statistics, that could mean in the absolute worse case that unemployment is still 99.8% . Spainish unemployment rate is 19% tie that with a debt = to 94% of GDP and a 5% deficit the Spanish economy is not great.

Fratton Fred

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well in fairness it's not just the Brits who are engaging in jingoism. The Spanish aren't ones to beat around the bush either.

An important point to remember is that the Spanish feel as strongly about it as the British do. It's an island in some sense of the word but you can actually walk into the Spainish mainland from it. If you're a British person in Spain it will be brought up at every oppertunity (not saying that's right). The Spanish are extremely nationalistic and although we've had a few cretins talk about war in Britain it's the general dialogue in a lot of Spanish quarters.

I don't see them invading but I do see them making life in Gibraltar very difficult indeed. That might make things a lot worse.

I spend around three to four weeks a year in Spain, no ones ever mentioned it to me.

steddyeddy

Fratton Fred wrote: »

I spend around three to four weeks a year in Spain, no ones ever mentioned it to me.

That's not what the British immigrants in Spain are saying. There was a segment on the James O'Brien radio show about the jingoism about "war with Spain". Several British immigrants in Spain talk about "getting a very hard time" over there. One caller says the teacher corrects his children in school when they say Gibraltar is British.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fgHlOb6nbA

steddyeddy

tac foley wrote: »

The adjoining urban conurbation to Gibraltar has 55% unemployment. Gibraltar has less than 2%.

Much of the workforce in Gibraltar comes through the border every day to earn money that is just not around in Spain.

If the Spaniards cut that off access to good jobs and steady wages , they would be p*ssing in their own sombreros bigtime.

tac

55% of the area adjacent to Gibraltar VS 100% of the population of Gibraltar. I.E Gibraltar has a lot more to lose than Spain. A hard border would cripple Gibraltar. I'm not Spanish or British so I'm of two minds of the subject.

A: The rock is British going back three hundred years.

B: If the isle of Wight was Spanish going back 300 years there would be the same reaction from the British. In this day and age it's not kosher to have a foreign power have a military presence so close to your territory.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

55% of the area adjacent to Gibraltar VS 100% of the population of Gibraltar. I.E Gibraltar has a lot more to lose than Spain. A hard border would cripple Gibraltar. I'm not Spanish or British so I'm of two minds of the subject.

A: The rock is British going back three hundred years.

B: If the isle of Wight was Spanish going back 300 years there would be the same reaction from the British. In this day and age it's not kosher to have a foreign power have a military presence so close to your territory.

Given's Spain's outposts in North Africa, I don't really think they can use B as an excuse.

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

Given's Spain's outposts in North Africa, I don't really think they can use B as an excuse.

They're not saying it, I am. I'm saying the Spanish are likely to kick off first. The sentiment would be the same if the isle of Wight was Spanish controlled. It wouldn't be accepted no matter how long the Spanish owned it.

steddyeddy

As regards war I see the Spanish kicking off first. I think Spain would lose but I don't see them going alone. The French sold exocet missiles to the Argentinians during the Falklands war and I can see them taking a slightly more active approach closer to home.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

As regards war I see the Spanish kicking off first. I think Spain would lose but I don't see them going alone. The French sold exocet missiles to the Argentinians during the Falklands war and I can see them taking a slightly more active approach closer to home.

A) no the Spanish aren't going to "kick off first", there's zero chance of any European nation seeking a war over this.

No the French didn't sell during the Falklands War, in fact they gave the UK the specs for the Exocets and practiced against the RN fleet as they sailed past France. The only Exocets the Argentinians had were the few they had bought before the war (to go along with the British Type 42's they had bought).

gallag

sparky42 wrote: »

A) no the Spanish aren't going to "kick off first", there's zero chance of any European nation seeking a war over this.

No the French didn't sell during the Falklands War, in fact they gave the UK the specs for the Exocets and practiced against the RN fleet as they sailed past France. The only Exocets the Argentinians had were the few they had bought before the war (to go along with the British Type 42's they had bought).

The argies were offering France three times the price i.e £1,000,000 each for more and France said no, the British secret service were given 15m and tasked with buying all exocets on the international market.

steddyeddy

Well it's not quite as simple as that as the BBC report.

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

A) no the Spanish aren't going to "kick off first", there's zero chance of any European nation seeking a war over this.

No the French didn't sell during the Falklands War, in fact they gave the UK the specs for the Exocets and practiced against the RN fleet as they sailed past France. The only Exocets the Argentinians had were the few they had bought before the war (to go along with the British Type 42's they had bought).

They don't have to go to war, they just have to make things difficult for the Gibraltarians. The EU directed compromise the Spanish made was that there was to be an open border with Gibraltar. Now that some British (the minority if you ask me) shot themselves in the foot with Brexit there's likely going to be a border problem. Even Gibraltar's PM warned against that prior to Brexit.

The French ambassador to London said this of Thatcher:

In a stinging memo dated 7 April 1982, France's then ambassador to London,
Emmanuel de Margerie, described British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher as
"Victorian, imperialist and obstinate". He went on to add that she had a
"tendency to get carried away by combative instincts".

Something that not many logical people would disagree with, but besides this, there was French support to the Argentinians.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

The French ambassador to London said this of Thatcher:

Something that not many logical people would disagree with, but besides this, there was French support to the Argentinians.

No there wasn't, I've just pointed out exactly how the French gave support over and above what they had to in giving the British exactly the specs, radar frequencies, tactics of the Exocet to the UK. That's major military aid to the UK.

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

No there wasn't, I've just pointed out exactly how the French gave support over and above what they had to in giving the British exactly the specs, radar frequencies, tactics of the Exocet to the UK. That's major military aid to the UK.

I'm saying they were duplicitous in their role in the conflict.

steddyeddy

So who has claim to the water around Gibraltar? The British say it's theirs but the Spanish say the waters were not ceded to Britain when Gibraltar was.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

So who has claim to the water around Gibraltar? The British say it's theirs but the Spanish say the waters were not ceded to Britain when Gibraltar was.

Course not, when the Treaty was signed, the determining factor of sovereignty was "what's the range of the canon's!" (the actual historical determination of a nations territorial waters), so trying to extrapolate from that to the modern idea of EEZ areas and how they intersect is "difficult". There's also the example the Spanish have of ceding Gib some land when they had a disease outbreak on the Rock that the Brits then kept (hence their unwillingness to talk).

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

Course not, when the Treaty was signed, the determining factor of sovereignty was "what's the range of the canon's!" (the actual historical determination of a nations territorial waters), so trying to extrapolate from that to the modern idea of EEZ areas and how they intersect is "difficult". There's also the example the Spanish have of ceding Gib some land when they had a disease outbreak on the Rock that the Brits then kept (hence their unwillingness to talk).

So you think we shouldn't follow the treaty at all?

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

So you think we shouldn't follow the treaty at all?

I'm saying that both sides can argue their positions, the Treaty has little connection to modern international agreements/circumstances, particularly as I've said complicated areas like Water rights/Fishing etc.

I mean it's not much different than our spat with the UK over Lough Foyle.

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

I'm saying that both sides can argue their positions, the Treaty has little connection to modern international agreements/circumstances, particularly as I've said complicated areas like Water rights/Fishing etc.

I mean it's not much different than our spat with the UK over Lough Foyle.

Well Lough Foyle is regulated by a cross border body. That's a status much envied by the Spanish. Gibraltar and the straits of Gibraltar are of huge strategic importance.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

Well Lough Foyle is regulated by a cross border body. That's a status much envied by the Spanish. Gibraltar and the straits of Gibraltar are of huge strategic importance.

No it isn't regulated, the body has never been implemented, hence why post Brexit you had UK ministers resuming their position that the entire Lough up to the shoreline is UK waters rather than the half and half Ireland puts forward (due to the shipping channel).

Moreover the issue between the Spanish and UK/Gib isn't the "straights of Gibraltar" it's just the local waters around the Rock (due to actions on fishing (like the Gib's laying down a Waterbreak in disputed shell fish areas), or the issue of smuggling that the Spanish complain about.

It's got nothing to do with the actual Straights as such.

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

No it isn't regulated, the body has never been implemented, hence why post Brexit you had UK ministers resuming their position that the entire Lough up to the shoreline is UK waters rather than the half and half Ireland puts forward (due to the shipping channel).

Yea I seen that. James Brokenshire tried to reclaim it. In fairness he's like Thatcher on speed. Delusions of empire and all that. At least Dublin are telling him where to go.

Asked specifically about Lough Foyle he added: "The government's position
remains that the whole of Lough Foyle is within the UK."Dublin's Department of Foreign Affairs swiftly rejected the claim.
"Ireland has never accepted the UK's claim to the whole of Lough Foyle," it
said in a statement

Moreover the issue between the Spanish and UK/Gib isn't the "straights
of Gibraltar" it's just the local waters around the Rock (due to actions on
fishing (like the Gib's laying down a Waterbreak in disputed shell fish areas),
or the issue of smuggling that the Spanish complain about.
It's got
nothing to do with the actual Straights as such

I know it's not about the straits, but it's significant to have a foreign military presence so close to Spain. It's also important as the British are claiming that the Spanish constantly take excursions into British waters.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

Yea I seen that. James Brokenshire tried to reclaim it. In fairness he's like Thatcher on speed. Delusions of empire and all that. At least Dublin are telling him where to go.

There's zero difference between the positions, Dublin can't and doesn't enforce any control on the waters (hence widespread illegal fishing in the Lough)

I know it's not about the straits, but it's significant to have a foreign military presence so close to Spain. It's also important as the British are claiming that the Spanish constantly take excursions into British waters.

What difference does that make? The Spanish have the USN based in Spain, the issue between Spain and the UK has little in modern terms to military forces. And yeah the Spanish sail their OPV's into the contested waters and the RN chases them out, it's been going on long before and during the UK's membership of the EU.

steddyeddy

sparky42 wrote: »

There's zero difference between the positions, Dublin can't and doesn't enforce any control on the waters (hence widespread illegal fishing in the Lough).

Dublin's position is half and half I believe, or at least shared control. Not the imperialistic "we own it all". There's no need to enforce control on the waters as the British don't try to enforce control.

What difference does that make? The Spanish have the USN based in Spain, the
issue between Spain and the UK has little in modern terms to military forces.
And yeah the Spanish sail their OPV's into the contested waters and the RN
chases them out, it's been going on long before and during the UK's membership
of the EU

The EU was actually the lid on this problem. Now that that's gone I suspect things will get difficult.

sparky42

steddyeddy wrote: »

Dublin's position is half and half I believe, or at least shared control. Not the imperialistic "we own it all". There's no need to enforce control on the waters as the British don't try to enforce control.

Actually the Irish Government's position is one it knows the UK will never accept, the Lough is only navigable on our side for large ships, hence why the UK won't accept it (as then Derry's shipping has to transit through Irish waters), and there's plenty of reason to enforce it, as mentioned there's massive illegal fishing that has locals on both sides concerned.

The EU was actually the lid on this problem. Now that that's gone I suspect things will get difficult.

No it wasn't, the Spanish and British clashed repeatedly throughout the period that they were both in the EU (for example recently the Spanish harassed a SSN, increased border checks that resulted in hours of delays, closed the border at times). There's not going to be anymore flares ups more than usual, just the normal level of dicking around.

The main point I'd bet Spain is pushing for is to prevent Gibraltar going ultra low tax like May was threatening before.

Victor

This is the approximate situation of the territorial waters. http://www.gibnet.com/fish/waters.gif

However, there are different interpretations:
http://www.openstreetmap.org/search?query=Gibraltar%20#map=10/35.9552/-5.3696
http://www.fdbetancor.com/2014/07/25/gibraltar-addendum/

http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/627-holy-rock-gibraltar-the-mother-of-all-territorial-disputes
https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmfaff/461/46107.htm (not very clear)

Note that Spain and Morocco have their own issues: http://www.heritage.org/global-politics/report/self-determination-and-national-security-why-the-us-should-back-british

steddyeddy wrote: »

As regards war I see the Spanish kicking off first. I think Spain would lose but I don't see them going alone. The French sold exocet missiles to the Argentinians during the Falklands war and I can see them taking a slightly more active approach closer to home.

I don't think any missiles were sold to the Argentinians during the Falklands War.

However, they already had 5 Super Étendard aircraft and 5 air-launched Exocets. They also had dozens of ship-launched Exocets - Belgrano, 6 destroyers, 3 corvettes.

Stars and Stripes

sparky42 wrote: »

There's zero difference between the positions, Dublin can't and doesn't enforce any control on the waters (hence widespread illegal fishing in the Lough)



What difference does that make? The Spanish have the USN based in Spain, the issue between Spain and the UK has little in modern terms to military forces. And yeah the Spanish sail their OPV's into the contested waters and the RN chases them out, it's been going on long before and during the UK's membership of the EU.

Yeah sure we can imagine that all right !!!

" Hello Captain Juan, this is the Royal Navy "

Captain Juan " Si, senor "

Brit " We object to a Spanish naval vessel sailing through British territorial waters off Gibraltar "

Captain Juan " Oh for Godz zake, have you nothing better to do, grow up azzhole "


You really want to see a naval power, the US fleet being sent to North Korea as a warning -

Victor

Stars and Stripes wrote: »

You really want to see a naval power, the US fleet being sent to North Korea as a warning -

Oh to have a few submarines and a minefield.

Stars and Stripes

Victor wrote: »

Oh to have a few submarines and a minefield.

No need, turns out apparently it was just the Donald once again talking out of his ar$e !! Typical Trump, talks a big game about North Korea but sends carrier group in the opposite direction


The US fleet Trump supposedly sent to North Korea spent days sailing in the wrong direction
https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-04-18/us-fleet-trump-supposedly-sent-north-korea-spent-days-sailing-wrong-direction

greencap

Prior events back in 2011-ish went something like this (afair):

Spanish fishermen fishing the disputed waters.

RN chasing them out, maybe even occasional arrest, not really so much about fish, moreso the implication of freely using the waters.

Basically low level animosity, messing, harassment, brinkmanship, dick waving and one upping.

At one stage the Spanish police chase a drugs vessel well into the Gib waters, rather than call on the RN to co-operate, which is seen as a 'fck you' to the British.

All the game playing finally results in Gib upping the stakes/drawing a line, by dropping concrete blocks into the bay, so stopping Spanish fishing nets for good.

The diplomatic ''line'' of 'oh its for an artificial reef for replenishing levels of the rare purple assed fish' is used. As local fishermen complain of less territory to fish.

Not long thereafter; border times increase dramatically.
The diplomatic line of 'oh its for drug trafficking prevention' gets used.
As locals wait for extended hours in the baking sun to cross the border.

At some point around the time an attempt is made by a local Spanish politician to designate the road which leads from the Spanish side to the border posts (North to south) to the status of toll road.

i.e everybody passing along the road into/out of Gib would end up paying a toll. (or by my guessing - in the long run every non-Spanish person)

This move is prevented by Gibs appeal to the European authorities, as its against certain EU laws to prevent free movement between member states.

However, Gib is in a real bind now since they'll be out of the EU.

If UK can't negotiate Brexit so that Gib's free movement across the border is guaranteed, then Spain will have huge power over Gib's economy.

Many British live on the Spanish side, and work in Gib, as housing in cheaper, more available in LaLinea, Spain.

Tourism also account for a large portion of Gibs economy, as does online business, which uses fiber lines which go through Spain.

So post Brexit it could end up that any time Gib does something like drop concrete blocks in the bay, Spain will retort by simply saying 'ok €40 entry/exit toll all this week'.
Tourism numbers plummet, local politics fractures, business gets spooked.

gallag

greencap wrote: »

Prior events back in 2011-ish went something like this (afair):

Spanish fishermen fishing the disputed waters.

RN chasing them out, maybe even occasional arrest, not really so much about fish, moreso the implication of freely using the waters.

Basically low level animosity, messing, harassment, brinkmanship, dick waving and one upping.

At one stage the Spanish police chase a drugs vessel well into the Gib waters, rather than call on the RN to co-operate, which is seen as a 'fck you' to the British.

All the game playing finally results in Gib upping the stakes/drawing a line, by dropping concrete blocks into the bay, so stopping Spanish fishing nets for good.

The diplomatic ''line'' of 'oh its for an artificial reef for replenishing levels of the rare purple assed fish' is used. As local fishermen complain of less territory to fish.

Not long thereafter; border times increase dramatically.
The diplomatic line of 'oh its for drug trafficking prevention' gets used.
As locals wait for extended hours in the baking sun to cross the border.

At some point around the time an attempt is made by a local Spanish politician to designate the road which leads from the Spanish side to the border posts (North to south) to the status of toll road.

i.e everybody passing along the road into/out of Gib would end up paying a toll. (or by my guessing - in the long run every non-Spanish person)

This move is prevented by Gibs appeal to the European authorities, as its against certain EU laws to prevent free movement between member states.

However, Gib is in a real bind now since they'll be out of the EU.

If UK can't negotiate Brexit so that Gib's free movement across the border is guaranteed, then Spain will have huge power over Gib's economy.

Many British live on the Spanish side, and work in Gib, as housing in cheaper, more available in LaLinea, Spain.

Tourism also account for a large portion of Gibs economy, as does online business, which uses fiber lines which go through Spain.

So post Brexit it could end up that any time Gib does something like drop concrete blocks in the bay, Spain will retort by simply saying 'ok €40 entry/exit toll all this week'.
Tourism numbers plummet, local politics fractures, business gets spooked.

I hear ya but I don't believe it would be in Spain's best interest to try and destroy a British territory's tourist industry, what with how reliant the Spanish economy is on British tourists! I would say 1% of British tourists picking gib instead of the mainland would compensate gib. Basically what I am saying is spain probably doesn't want to play a game of let's destroy each other's tourist industry with their no1 tourists, Even the oaps spending their pensions paid in pounds in a boon for the Spanish! All we get is unemployed Spanish youth lol