Ironman 70.3 St George

joey100

Seen this on Sebastian Kienle's twitter last night, looks like a really good field for this race.

Don't want to make it all about Alistair Brownlee but he is racing it, along with Tim Don, Kienle, Joe Gambles, Stuart Hayes, Ben Hoffman, Ben Kanute, Brent McMahon, Andres Raelert, Trevor Wurtele.

I know most of the eyes will be on Brownlee but Kienle is always fast and Tim Don went crazy fast in China recently too at a 70.3. Should be a great race.

EC1000

Will be interesting to see how Alistair goes here given how poor he was at the Superleague event.

joey100

Def, didn't look too interested in the whole thing really. I'd say it was as much about the appearance fee as anything. He recently came 2nd to Phil Graves in a 50mile TT in the UK so you would expect him to be taking it seriously enough. I'd be half expecting him not to start though. He looked a little 'fuller' than usual at the super league!

Ben Kanute will be an interesting one, normally towards the front of the swim and lead pack on the bike. Does his fair share of work too to try and gap the faster runners (Mola, Murray), probably not fast enough to go with Brownlee and Tim Don on the run but will be interesting to see how he gets on.

pgibbo

That's a pretty deep field with some strong bikers.

A lot of talk about Don getting some draft off the lead moto when he posted that time in China

peter kern

iam pretty sure there will be a different brownlee racing there those super taletned atheles can change a lot in a few weeks and he seems to be back into it after all the commerical stuff he did over the winter.
was told he is doing challenge cran canaria. so he is doing hill tt a hilly half as prep. sounds all more than solid to me. and also smart to go for hilly courses the best way to overcome the lacking raw tt power and positioning issue he will likely have this year.

mossym

when i saw the thread title i thought you were telling us you were splashing out on a big race joey

pgibbo

On this weekend. Should be a cracking mens race. Hard to see anyone getting near Holly Lawrence in the womens race. Siri is talking up Ellie Salthouse so it will be interesting to see how she goes.

Looking like around 30 celsius for the weekend so not killer temps. AB shouldn't have any major issues in that heat. I wonder what sort of shape Sebi & Raelert are in. Sanders and Don are both unbeaten at the distance this year. Should be a cracker.

mossym

was listening to a few of teh podcasts last few days, lots of talk about this, stoked the excitement for it. should be a cracking race. brownlee to be well ahead out of the swim, kienle with a gap and sanders with another gap back. then it's a question of how strong AB really is on the bike. he'll fancy a run against kienle for sure, sanders maybe not so much

joey100

I'd reckon Brownlee is the fastest runner out of the lot of them, maybe with a decent lead from the swim and a bit of a group to work with on the bike he might make it harder for Kienle and Sanders to catch him, take something out of their legs for the run. A lot of these races starting to get tactical on the bike, bit of a pace line, get to the run in best shape and then go from there. I'd say Kienle and probably Sanders will need a lead on him off the bike to win.

Fazz

4 horse race. Can't see any others being close as these guys are a step above if all on a good day.

Swim:

We all agree Brownlee will be first or very front couple out of the water.
He flies through T1, and is known for hammering the bike.
Don is still a front pack swimmer, and a few around him like Appleton/McMahon etc possibly if they are lucky.

Kienle around 1.5mins-2mins back.

Sanders around 2.5mins-3mins back.

Bike:

I don't like Brownlee's hands position on the TT bike (& suspect it will change over time) but he is very aero so low CDA.
Don has improved his CDA a lot it appears and has a great tuck now with power so will be pushing and likely close to front all bike. Saying that, Brownlee was always a better biker than Don so who's to say Brownlee won't go out on his own all day?

Kienle will likely pace even and look to take the lead by top of the canyon.
Sanders will be hammering 400watts to close in as soon as and having fun when he gets there.

So sure, I do think the others could catch Brownlee, but it's hard to see them putting more time into him.
He'd likely up the effort if he's passed and try to hammer with.
I don't think his FTP is less than 5.2 w/kg which is close to where the others are so hard to see him getting dropped.

Probably all come in around same time or within 30secs to T2 (unless Brownlee has extended swim lead)

Run:

Is there any question? I mean at all?

1 - Brownlee
2 - Sanders
3 - Don
4 - Kienle

Based primarily on it being a running race.


The one variable, which we'd all probably love to see is if Brownlee is out of water with a slight lead, and decides to blast the bike cause that's the kinda racer he is and stays out in front all day long.
That would be an epic result and put them all on notice for World's.

We're 7 hours ahead of Utah time, so it's a nice afternoon start (1:55pm) and possible to live track for any of those interested.
Well, live twitter feed/blog update anyway as IM seems to have fallen down on their live coverage since SA.

St George is one of those 70.3's on my to do list. Maybe next year!

Fazz

For those that do want to track this live.

Working closely with Ironman, SportsStats (the company that Ironman pays to do most of their tracking, sidenote if ever IM is not updating go to sportsstats.ca and likely results live) will be testing a tracking solution in St.George this weekend via RTRT.
Option 1: Download the RTRT.me app on android or iphone, Ironman 70.3 St.George should be there.
Option 2: Direct link on desktop: https://track.rtrt.me/e/IRM-TRI-STG703-2017

The leaderboards will be in realtime and adjusted every time they hit a timing mat. The system will also provide
predicted time at next mat and and end of each leg. You can also sign up for notification within the app, so everytime
someone you are following crosses a mat you get a notification, this can be turned on or off.

There is also a MAP feature that will show your participant on the Map.

joey100

What's the bike course like in St George, Hilly or flat? Any idea what AB's power numbers are? I know he has a high power to weight but if the course is flat and the majority of the top lads have good aero positions wouldn't it come down to overall power more? I still expect him to be up there but I reckon the bike could be the part (at the start of his career at half and full) that he will give up time on compared to others. I do wonder though if he will be the one to really break through on the run, to start to put serious time into lads on it. Hard to tell from Gran Canaria but he ran 1.11, with consistent splits and I'd guess he done enough to win without really pushing himself.

Fazz

joey100 wrote: »

What's the bike course like in St George, Hilly or flat? Any idea what AB's power numbers are? I know he has a high power to weight but if the course is flat and the majority of the top lads have good aero positions wouldn't it come down to overall power more? I still expect him to be up there but I reckon the bike could be the part (at the start of his career at half and full) that he will give up time on compared to others. I do wonder though if he will be the one to really break through on the run, to start to put serious time into lads on it. Hard to tell from Gran Canaria but he ran 1.11, with consistent splits and I'd guess he done enough to win without really pushing himself.

Course is rolling with a few lumps first 40miles, then a long hard climb up a canyon before a fast descent to the finish.
Sanders file last year:
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/public/workout/B6CTZXQOW6DX47CBITBBVEOXSU

My estimates on power figures for FTP:

Sanders seems to be around 5.4 watts/kg.
There's open figures on him being 75kg and FTP testing close to 400 watts. This stacks up with him racing at 350-360watts for 70.3. So 5.3 w/kg last year. Maybe better aero this year or a little more power even with 70.3 focus.

Kienle figures never really put out there surprisingly enough. I think we can take it close to 5.2 w/kg but with a bit better aero CDA.

Brownlee likely 5.2-5.3 w/kg. Most ITU top bikers would be at or close to 5 w/kg. Brownlee can outbike them all so I'd have him close to Kienle.
Only variable is if he can hold enough % of FTP yet for 70.3. Be it 88% or 90% potentially.

Don just under at maybe 5, however has improved his CDA a lot lately and made serious gains (or got serious tows from moto's out front, we will find out on Saturday if he's at the races).


I do agree and I'd imagine both Sanders and Kienle agree, the only potential weakness in Brownlee is his bike as an unknown. So both Sanders and Kienle have to go all out on the bike to not only catch him, but try pass and drop him as he will easily out run them too.

They will be looking to catch him by the climb, and hope he goes with them on the climb or even tries to pass and does his legs in for a slightly slower run - on a course which is hilly also.

Fact is though, Brownlee is probably more built for racing on dead legs than any of them so it's so hard to see him not winning if on a good day.



Randomly, Brownlee has also thrown his name in for Mallorca 70.3 (next weekend, and Barcelona 70.3 (weekend after!).
So just 3 x 70.3's back to back then.

Suspect one will drop depending on St george performance.
No cost for Pro's to enter/not race so at least one is surely a back up.

Be nice to see Brownlee bike split and compare it to McCrystal who is in for Mallorca - though you'd imagine Brownlee more likely to pull out of Mallorca and race Barcelona.

peter kern

cameron wurf who will race for first in t2 which might come in handy for brownlee and with hoffman he is going to have another v strong cyclist in the pack.
kienle cycled faster than ever in cannes a couple of weeks ago so he seems to be untypicaly early in bike shape.at the same time he alwayys prepars for his german ironman race and 70.3 worlds and hawaii and all the other races are secondary and one would be suprised if that changes. it would appear he is training to break away on the bike in kona this year.
one would hope for sanders to save his peak for the end of the season.
will don drop his ceramic speed chain ?

St georgre is always the 2nd strongest 70.3 field of the season but still its a tune up race for most.

BTH

Fazz wrote: »

Be nice to see Brownlee bike split and compare it to McCrystal who is in for Mallorca - though you'd imagine Brownlee more likely to pull out of Mallorca and race Barcelona.

If I'd known that I'd be racing Brownlee in Barca I'd have done some training.

Was expecting a nice easy race..

pgibbo

Is Frodo doing Barcelona 70.3 too? I thought I saw that he was but maybe I'm mistaken

joey100

Well he done it anyway! 2nd fastest swim, 2nd fastest bike and 2nd fastest run. Beat Sanders by 33 seconds. Wonder if he done enough to win on the run or if he was flat out. Looked like a lumpy course but definitely answered any questions about how his bike would translate to middle distance. Going to be an interesting year at 70.3 worlds. Anyone know if Frodeno is racing it or going all in for Kona again this year? Varga and Murray are both down for the Challenge half distance championship, I'm interested to see how a strong biker/runner like Murray goes in half distance, a relatively slow swimmer by ITU standards but could be fast enough to go with some of the longer distance racers.

Ben Kanute (finished 5th) has a thread over in Slowtwitch answering questions people have about the race. He was asked why didn't he go with Brownlee and Sanders on the bike, just replied simply, 'I couldn't, I tried'. He had a NP of 317w. He said the biggest thing for him was getting used to the nutrition, can get away with a bit of an energy drink and a gel or two for Olympic, wouldn't work for a half. Gives plenty of honest answers in the thread, here is the link if people are interested.

http://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/Slowtwitch_Forums_C1/Triathlon_Forum_F1/Ask_me_anything_about_St._George!_P6301699/

Fazz

It was a great race to track - I was live tracking it and Brownlee going off the front on the bike really made it a very fair race it seems.

I guess that's why we love them so much. Their approach to racing of "we will go hard and off the front" no matter what is brilliant. Very interesting the time differences to the rest of the athletes in a race where drafting or front pack advantage didn't happen at all. Massive time gaps for top 10 compared to normal and the top 3 guys were the fastest 3 bikers on the day (and close to on run also obv).

Regarding Frodo, he's running scared. Let's not forget he was nowhere in ITU when Brownlee and Gomez were destroying the field.
Frodo hasn't a patch on Brownlee and he knows it.
He isn't racing World 70.3's this year and is protecting his brand - choosing a few races as appearance fee's and trying to maximise his World Champion exposure before it gets shot down.
Probably the right approach from a financial perspective.
Not the approach a racer's racer would do (would've been at St George, or looking for best fields), or fans want to see though.
Kona'17 will prob be his last as favourite as I reckon Brownlee will do a late season IM if he wins World 70.3's this year and start his Kona qual for 2018.

Barcelona 70.3 (2 weeks time):

This is perhaps the only opportunity we may see Brownlee vs Frodo. I expect one of them to pull out but it's 2 weeks away so Brownlee will hopefully race. If Frodo drops out then he's down another couple notches in the respect column.
Brownlee has qualified for World 70.3 Champs now though so only motivated to take a pay cheque, and smack Frodo's arse... So here's hoping!


The Kanute thread is good alright as is the article on his FTP and approach by coach.
Kanute is around 340-350w FTP at 70KG so 5 w/kg give or take.
We've seen him bike at the front and close to it at ITU.
But we just saw Brownlee put 5mins into him at St George on the bike.

I may have underestimated Brownlee at 5.2/5.3 w/kg...
He biked the same as Sanders who is 5.3-5.4 w/kg. However, Sanders is bigger and would have put out more power. Flip side is Brownlee used to racing at 95-100% so probably used another 1-2% of his power and raced at say 92% vs 90% Sanders.

I don't think Gomez bike is anywhere near Brownlee's so a healthy Brownlee at World 70.3's is hard to see anyone being close to. Richard Murray has a shot but not sure he's racing it as likely more focussed on ITU.

Let's see in 2 weeks time if Brownlee and Frodeno show up at Barcelona...

I think it's safe to say Brownlee won't race Mallorca 70.3 this weekend, but who knows.

zico10

I think you're being pretty harsh on a guy who holds an Olympic gold medal, one 70.3 world title, two IM World titles and the long distance world record. It's a pretty impressive résumé by most people's standards.

I don't follow the ITU scene all that closely, but according to Wikipedia, "He was on course to become World Champion in 2010, needing only a 4th place in the Series Grand Final in Budapest, but due to an injury struggled to a 41st-place finish, losing the Overall title to Javier Gómez." He might not have been as dominant as Gomez and Brownlee were/are at the distance, but don't forget that Gomez was 4th that same day Frodeno picked up gold in Beijing.

Frodeno didn't race the 70.3 championships last year either. He was hardly running scared of Brownlee then, but if he thinks skipping this race increases his chances of winning in Kona, then I wouldn't criticise him for it.

Plus he's seven years older than Brownlee. It's hardly a surprise he didn't stick around in ITU racing, which is a young man's game, for Brownlee's prime. And not that it's happened yet, but whether Brownlee had decided to step up to full distance racing or not, wouldn't have really changed the fact that Frodeno didn't have too long left at the top anyway. In athletic terms, they're from different generations. At Olympic distance, when Brownlee was on his way up, Frodeno was on his way out. The same is going to happen now at the longer distances.

peter kern

i would think the best ironman ever was likely done by frodeno 2015 in frankfurt were he totally hammerd kienle from the front. brownlee style .
frodo is the only full ironman right now that has the full swim bike run package and i dont think it will be that easy for brownlee to get him at kona especially in the first year of alister doing kona my money would be on frodo. I think its nonsense that AB dosnt race well in the heat but frodeno is certainly somebody that does really well in the heat ( and i guess this is why he can call himself oly champ which i don think he would have won in a cooler race )



personally i would think that murray could be a better full than brownlee as murray has more strenght.

but i think over the half there is little doubt that alister is the best ever as he was over the oly distance
talentwise alister is just the best triathlete ever but i dont think the full will be the same walk for him as oly and half ( i do think murray will outsplit AB at 70.3 runs but he will decide the race in the swim )
even frodo should be able to run the marathon quicker as he does and i dont think we have seen his fastest marathon yet . i dont think even a AB will get this right in the first year of fulls .
( gebreselasi did not hack the marathon immdiatelly either)

Fazz

zico10 wrote: »

I think you're being pretty harsh on a guy who holds an Olympic gold medal, one 70.3 world title, two IM World titles and the long distance world record. It's a pretty impressive résumé by most people's standards.

I don't follow the ITU scene all that closely, but according to Wikipedia, "He was on course to become World Champion in 2010, needing only a 4th place in the Series Grand Final in Budapest, but due to an injury struggled to a 41st-place finish, losing the Overall title to Javier Gómez." He might not have been as dominant as Gomez and Brownlee were/are at the distance, but don't forget that Gomez was 4th that same day Frodeno picked up gold in Beijing.

Frodeno didn't race the 70.3 championships last year either. He was hardly running scared of Brownlee then, but if he thinks skipping this race increases his chances of winning in Kona, then I wouldn't criticise him for it.

Plus he's seven years older than Brownlee. It's hardly a surprise he didn't stick around in ITU racing, which is a young man's game, for Brownlee's prime. And not that it's happened yet, but whether Brownlee had decided to step up to full distance racing or not, wouldn't have really changed the fact that Frodeno didn't have too long left at the top anyway. In athletic terms, they're from different generations. At Olympic distance, when Brownlee was on his way up, Frodeno was on his way out. The same is going to happen now at the longer distances.

Ok, I disagree that I'm being harsh on Frodo.
Firstly - I am only talking about ITU and 70.3 in my comments/opinion.
Did you know he hadn't won any ITU race prior to winning the Gold Medal?
And followed it up with just 2 wins afterwards?
And Gomez was injured is one of the main reasons Frodo won his gold medal in fairness.

Reasoning:

I've watched many of the TriathlonLive ITU races dating back to 2009/2010 and Frodo barely features. But for the purposes of facts let's look at his stats.

ITU Career:

Jan Frodeno:
ITU = 59 Starts, 3 Wins (5%), 18 Podiums (30%)
http://www.triathlon.org/athletes/results/5692/jan_frodeno


Alistair Brownlee:
ITU = 64 Starts, 34 Wins (53%), 46 Podiums (72%)

So forget Age or decade racing for a moment.
Race Starts - virtually identical.
Performance - Brownlee 10x the wins, 2.5x the podiums.

Enough said.

And if anything you'd say Brownlee has raced in a more competitive environment as he has had Gomez to beat for his whole career.


Frodo didn't race 70.3 WC's last year as you say, which was strange as he had the previous year and won it, and as it was in Australia where he spends a lot of time with Emma Snowsill being his wife.
It was on all of 5 days later than previous year when he did race it so for me it stunk of choosing races and not the most competitive ones.
Sure a Kona focus but it was 4-5 weeks out and he had done it the prev yr without issue.


Age profile that you bring up is relevant to timing of Frodo moving from ITU to long course, but not relevant when you look at the stats of Frodo's career vs Brownlee. Just not at the same ballpark.

Now Frodo has focussed on Ironman in recent couple years, and if that's where he is at then fair enough. Sure knows Kona is the big dance for sponsors so understandable. He has gone out and said he wants to race more this year (70.3's) but hasn't showed up at one of the big champs races (St George) and is avoiding World Champs also - so for all intense purposes is running and hiding in my eyes.

Open to correction in Barcelona in 2 weeks time. However I note Brownlee is on Madrid start list for the following week (ITU), I wonder is he racing both or just one.

Fazz

peter kern wrote: »

i would think the best ironman ever was likely done by frodeno 2015 in frankfurt were he totally hammerd kienle from the front. brownlee style .
frodo is the only full ironman right now that has the full swim bike run package and i dont think it will be that easy for brownlee to get him at kona especially in the first year of alister doing kona my money would be on frodo. I think its nonsense that AB dosnt race well in the heat but frodeno is certainly somebody that does really well in the heat ( and i guess this is why he can call himself oly champ which i don think he would have won in a cooler race )

personally i would think that murray could be a better full than brownlee as murray has more strenght.

but i think over the half there is little doubt that alister is the best ever as he was over the oly distance
talentwise alister is just the best triathlete ever but i dont think the full will be the same walk for him as oly and half ( i do think murray will outsplit AB at 70.3 runs but he will decide the race in the swim )
even frodo should be able to run the marathon quicker as he does and i dont think we have seen his fastest marathon yet . i dont think even a AB will get this right in the first year of fulls .
( gebreselasi did not hack the marathon immdiatelly either)

I'd agree with most of what you said there.
I'm not questioning that Frodo is on top of the Ironman game at present.
Frodo had a great FF'15, same could be said for Kienle the prev or next year though... perhaps not quite as dominant but still.
Roth'16 prob ranks a little higher though be it moto assisted and short but then FF likely the same.

Agree on Murray likely being very strong at 70.3 - good race in Samorin coming up with Sanders and Kienle.

Also agree I don't think Brownlee is weak in heat - it's simply cause he pushes himself past 100% to get max performance. We've seen the last couple years he's learned to dial it back from that level and still win.
The only thing for him to adjust in 70.3 is nutrition for last 6 miles of run.
IM will be a challenge for nutrition I'd say hence why I reckon if he wins Worlds this year he will do Arizona as a tester for both the distance, nutrition and start Kona points ball rolling. Heck Barcelona is even an option???

peter kern

i think the reality is the 70.3 title means very little.
bit like in running where you want to win the 10k or the marathon
no supirse the half marry is not even olympic.

ironman opinion aobut 70.3 worlds is well refelcted in price money for 70.3 worlds too.

I bet you frodo made way more money form the 7.35 in roth in sponsor bonuses etc than wining the 70.3 worlds.
especially when you did win kona the year before and have many obligations over the winter and training suffers you have to be smart what you do. you lose almost 2 month of proper training.

btw i dont like frodo either he is a bit to sleek for me but he is a pro pro.

pgibbo

Sebi posted this earlier. It looks like an amazing race.

I really admire the way Sebi just goes out and races the stacked fields. No hiding and no BS.

peter kern

wrong link ?

pgibbo

peter kern wrote: »

wrong link ?

It's working for me - link to clips from the weekend and some tourism sell on the area

peter kern

some tourism sell...
no ****

next time say you are posting an ironman bs advert ;-)

and becasue you said no bs i watched the whole thing and want my 7.25 min back lol

pgibbo

peter kern wrote: »

some tourism sell...
no ****

next time say you are posting an ironman bs advert ;-)

and becasue you said no bs i watched the whole thing and want my 7.25 min back lol

lol...my apologies Peter. Point taken and noted ;-)

joey100

Probably could go in the Alistair Brownlee thread but since most of the discussion is in here, looks like he avoided Frodo at the weekend Fazz

Will his next race be ITU in Leeds and then probably the half challenge champs. Some big enough names down for that too.

Fazz

joey100 wrote: »

Probably could go in the Alistair Brownlee thread but since most of the discussion is in here, looks like he avoided Frodo at the weekend Fazz

Will his next race be ITU in Leeds and then probably the half challenge champs. Some big enough names down for that too.

Yep unfortunately he had thrown his name into Mallorca 70.3 and Barcelona 70.3 as backups for WC qualy if St George didn't yield the win.
and luckily for Frodo as with that Bike split he wasn't taking down Brownlee that's for sure.

AFAIK, Brownlee was in for ITU Cup race in Madrid this weekend but he has since pulled out as he's racing the Challenge Championship the weekend after (2 weeks time), then Leeds ITU the week after that.


So we have Challenge Championship to look forward to next.

Brownlee, Sanders, Kienle, Murray, Varga and more.

Brownlee, Murray, Sanders anyone?


Frodo vs Brownlee ain't gonna happen anytime soon for a 70.3.
Brownlee racing the big races (Samorin, Chatt WC's).
Frodo hiding and focussed on Kona only.

I think Frodo was lucky he punctured in Cali earlier as Sanders had him in his sights very early on the bike.
Sanders didn't get to see Brownlee at StG 70.3 till v late on run.
There's the difference and why Frodo will stick with IM.

Kona 2018 may be the first show down.

peter kern

joey100 wrote: »

Probably could go in the Alistair Brownlee thread but since most of the discussion is in here, looks like he avoided Frodo at the weekend Fazz

Will his next race be ITU in Leeds and then probably the half challenge champs. Some big enough names down for that too.

cant argue with fan boys joey