NBA Playoffs 2017

LuckyLloyd

Only one upset in the first round, was a 5 vs a 4, and went to 7. Now, we had some entertaining series, but there is no doubt that the NBA offers a slight illusion of competitiveness over and above how competitive it actually is.

shamrock55

What are the chances of the raptors doing a num on the cavs

LuckyLloyd

shamrock55 wrote: »

What are the chances of the raptors doing a num on the cavs

They don't match up great imo and the Cavs start with some very welcome extra rest. They have a chance always - but I'm fairly comfortable with the Cavs in five.

shamrock55

If lowry and derozan can produce and if they can keep lebron quiet,raps have better offence and defence stats i think so you never know

LuckyLloyd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jm8J0g1Ag1U

ButtersSuki

Surprised at one level at the Houston - Spurs result. It's a weird match-up. On one hand I fancy the Spurs and Pop over Houston and Danton, on the other I can't see the Spurs being able to score enough points consistently to beat Houston enough. I haven't seen any stats or game reports so unless something happened....?

Will be interesting to see how it pans out after Pop adjusts for Game 2.

ButtersSuki

Join me on a short journey through some neat NBA stats from the 2016-17 regular season.

James Harden attempted 205 more free throws than Jimmy Butler, who finished with the third-most free-throw attempts. That difference is roughly the same as the difference between Butler and Rudy Gobert, who attempted the 14th-most free throws in the NBA this season. Harden shot a whopping 881 free throws in 81 games, or nearly 11 per game. Harden and Russell Westbrook, who finished with the second-most free throws this season, combined to shoot 1,721 free throws. The Dallas Mavericks, stocked as they are with slow, plodding, less-impressive-younger-brother types, attempted 1,521 free throws as a whole team this regular season.

There’s still reason to be suspicious of Harden’s foul-seeking ways, of course: Harden averaged about 1.02 free throw attempts per drive this season; if Isaiah Thomas had accumulated free-throw trips at that same rate, he would’ve attempted 977 free throws, good for the 6th-highest total in NBA history, a volume only surpassed by Wilt Chamberlain. And Thomas would’ve done it in only 76 games! Miami Heat leading scorer Goran Dragic drove into the paint five more times this season than James Harden, and attempted 504 fewer free throws. Clearly, something that Harden was doing that wasn’t driving into traffic was putting him at the line way more than anyone else.



Of course, not all Harden’s penetrating was about ref-baiting: a good deal of it was about turning the ball over! Harden committed 464 turnovers, 142 more turnovers than Jon Wall, who committed the third-most turnovers. This despite averaging fewer front-court touches per game (78.8) than Wall (79.2), and driving 56 fewer times overall. That difference in total turnovers is roughly the same as the difference between Wall and DeMar DeRozan, who finished with the 25th-most turnovers in the NBA this season. Washington’s starting five, the most used five-man lineup in the NBA this season, committed 366 turnovers in 69 games (nice). Harden and Westbrook, who finished with the second-most turnovers this season, combined for 902 turnovers; the entire Charlotte Hornets team committed 942 total turnovers.

In fairness, turnovers and free-throw attempts are inevitable byproducts of handling the ball and distributing—the more possessions you spend breaking down the defense, the more times you will find yourself in a crowd of defenders. Sometimes that will lead to an open bucket for a teammate; sometimes that will lead to a defender getting a hand on the ball; sometimes that will lead to you randomly and suddenly throwing your hands up into the air and shouting HEY! at the top of your lungs, then staring angrily at a referee while the opposing team takes the ball the other way.

Harden and Westbrook were two of the most ball-dominant players in the NBA—Westbrook, in fact, used possessions like no one else has in NBA history. Westbrook attempted 371 more shots than Andrew Wiggins, who attempted the second most shots in the league this season. This despite playing 246 fewer total minutes than Wiggins, or about seven fewer games at Russ’s 34 minutes per game clip. That difference in total shots is roughly the same as the difference between Wiggins and Dennis Schröder, who attempted the 25th-most shots in the NBA this season. Russ attempted 1,941 shots in the 2016-2017 NBA season. Minnesota’s starting five, the second-most commonly used five-man lineup in the NBA, attempted 1,524 shots. Russ missed more shots in 81 regular season games than Pistons leading scorer Tobias Harris attempted in 82. Only one player since 1993 has attempted more shots than Russ did this season. Yes, of course it was Kobe Bryant, who attempted an astonishing 2,173 shots in the 2005-2006 season, and in just 80 games. Disgusting.

While no match for Westbrook in the realm of pure hoisting, Steph Curry did attempt 789 three-pointers, the second-highest total in NBA history (behind the 886 he attempted last season). His 2017 output is still 128 three-pointers more than Eric Gordon, who finished with the third-most three-point attempts. That difference is only a little bit more than the difference between Gordon and his Houston teammate Ryan Anderson, who attempted the 11th-most three-pointers in the NBA this season. Curry and Harden, who attempted the second-most threes this season, combined to launch 1,545 threes between the two of them. The Minnesota Timberwolves attempted 1,723 threes as a team this season. Honestly, this reflects so much more poorly on the Timberwolves than it does on Harden and Curry. Just what the hell kind of ship is Tom Thibodeau running up there?

Harden’s Rockets attempted a ludicrous 3,306 three-pointers this season, 527 three-pointers more than Cleveland, which attempted the second-most threes. Incidentally, Cleveland’s 2,779 three-point attempts are second-most in history. The difference between the Rockets’ output and the Cavs’ output is about the same as the difference between the Cavaliers and the Clippers, who attempted the 11th-most threes in the NBA this season. At their 2016-2017 rate (21.01 attempts a game), those damn Timberwolves would’ve needed more than 157 games to get up as many threes as the Rockets attempted in 82 games. We’re gonna need Timothy J. Mouse to sneak into Thibs’s bedroom one night.


“Towns!†Image via YouTube
Surprisingly, Curry’s Warriors finished just fifth in three-point attempts, behind even the Brooklyn Nets. But no team in recent NBA history can touch them for assists: the 2016-2017 Warriors accrued 2,491 assists, the highest regular season total since 1985. The Dubs rang up 404 more total assists than Denver, which finished with the second-most assists—that’s not far off from the difference between the Nuggets and Utah, which finished with the 28th-most assists in the NBA. If the passing-averse Toronto Raptors added all the assists accrued by NBA assists leader James Harden to their meager total, they’d still be 67 shy of Golden State’s total. With all these assists, and the outrageous league-wide increase in pace and three-point shooting, it’s more than a little wild that Golden State’s 9,503 total points this season are good for just the 66th-highest single-season total in NBA history. Next time some crank complains that NBA teams don’t play defense like they used to, remind them that every single one of the 65 highest-scoring teams in NBA history played before 1992, and that those one-hand-dribbling, set-shot-launching, no-dunking, two-pointers-only scrubs would get painted onto the floor of a modern NBA game.

ButtersSuki

ButtersSuki wrote: »

Surprised at one level at the Houston - Spurs result. It's a weird match-up. On one hand I fancy the Spurs and Pop over Houston and Danton, on the other I can't see the Spurs being able to score enough points consistently to beat Houston enough. I haven't seen any stats or game reports so unless something happened....?

Will be interesting to see how it pans out after Pop adjusts for Game 2.

So I watched the highlights of this game. My fears on the the Spurs and not being able to keep pace with Houston were brought to light in sharp focus. Houston shot 50 (50!) 3's and converted 22 of them. It's hard to beat that. Then throw in Harden working them into a frenzy on the pick and roll and getting his as well as dishing to wide open 3 point shooters and it's a recipe for disaster for the Spurs. They simply don't have the personnel to stop them - they're too reliant on Kawhi and otherwise too slow. I think they're done in as little as 5 based on what I saw on this. I now that may sound like a knee jerk reaction on one game and limited highlights but this was in San Antonio and they lost by 27. They've been very poor on the road in the playoffs and Houston just create all sorts of problems for them. They just looked "old" last night. One thing this does cement for me is how much they relied on Leonard in the regular season and how good he must have been to get them to 61 wins with that supporting crew.


If you need further proof of how good he's been lately, try this:

Kawhi Leonard’s first-round was so brilliant, it is difficult to put into words. Spectacular, dominant, superlative, historic – none of it quite captures what the Spurs star did against the Memphis Grizzlies. That’s why I’m going to put it into numbers instead, starting with a comparison of Kawhi to his peers so far this postseason, using advanced metrics that aim to convey overall performance. No one statistic is perfect, so a look at a few in tandem will demonstrate why words alone don’t do Kawhi justice.
By now, nearly everyone is familiar with John Hollinger’s PER (Player Efficiency Rating) statistic. This chart shows a ranking of PER among all players who have played at least 60 minutes this postseason. And this group passes the eye test. If you watched most of the first round and chose the eight best players, you’d probably answer with this group, in some order (you may also mention Gordon Hayward, whose statistics are weighed down by his nine minutes played in Game 4, due to food poisoning). Two things on this list stand out: Kawhi is leading the field by such a wide margin, and he’s also the youngest player of the group.
Win Shares measure how many wins a player contributes to his team. One thing to note with this statistic is that it’s cumulative, so Leonard is helped by the fact that his series went to six games, where guys like LeBron James and Steph Curry led their teams to first-round sweeps. However, Leonard is so far ahead of the pack with his two Win Shares, that it is highly unlikely those two extra games would’ve made any difference in this ranking. Again Kawhi’s lead is massive; there’s more room between him and second place as there is between second and tenth.
Inpredictable.com developed a statistic called Win Probability Added (WPA), which they describe as, “Win probability added (or subtracted) by a player due to made/ missed shots, getting fouled, made/ missed free throws, and turning the ball over.” So far, Leonard has lapped the field in this statistic. Curiously, Russell Westbrook ranked dead last (216th) among qualified players in Win Probability Added at -0.41. I wonder if any regular season MVP voters are second-guessing their decisions.
NBA Math Finally, a statistic where Leonard ranks a mere second-place. This is NBA Math’s Total Points Added (TPA) stat, which if you’re interested, you can see how they calculate here. It’s basically another stat to try and quantify a player’s effectiveness on both sides of the court. Chris Paul just barely edges Leonard in terms of TPA. [This graphic was created prior to the Clippers’ victory Friday night over the Jazz, so Paul now has three-point edge over Leonard in TPA.] And, for the sake of balance, Westbrook ranks third in this statistic. I’m a little dubious of the “Defensive Points Saved” component of the TPA model, if for no other reason than David Lee tops all Spurs. But, in small sample sizes, crazy things can happen.


In case you’re exhausted from all these new-fangled stats, try this on for size. Among players with a usage percentage of at least 20, Leonard has the highest TS% (True Shooting Percentage) and leads everyone with a historic Points Per Shot of 1.803, more on that later.
How has he been so effective? Well, he’s doing a ton of damage from mid-range. Of the 24 players to have taken at least 20 mid-range field goal attempts in this postseason, Kawhi ranks second, just below Kyrie Irving, shooting an absurd 62.1% on those shots. Exactly two-thirds of Kawhi’s made field goals have been unassisted, per NBA.com, which means he is shooting pull-up jump shots at an extremely high rate. Of the 24 players to have taken at least 30 pull-ups this postseason, Leonard ranks second in eFG% at 57.8%, behind only Steph Curry. As his shot chart shows, he’s been effective from nearly everywhere during these playoffs:
Where Kawhi has really dominated has been in the fourth quarter. You could argue that a play in the middle of the second quarter is just as significant as one at the end of the game, but in the NBA you simply will not blow out your opponent every night. The competition is too strong. So as the clock winds down (and when the defense sells out to stop the biggest threat) great players decide games. Check out Kawhi’s herculean fourth quarter numbers through Round 1:
Shoutout to ben_c for posting this in the comment thread of a prior article Specifically in the clutch (less than five minutes to go with the score within five points), Kawhi is shooting 57.1% from the field, 66.7% from the arc, and 100% from the line; and the Spurs have outscored opponents by 32.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.

Clearly, Leonard is outpacing his peers thus far this postseason, but how does he stack up all-time? It’s a tricky question to answer because Basketball Reference doesn’t isolate stats from a single series. As a result, we have to compare Kawhi’s first round performance to previous superlative postseason runs. Either way, these comparisons show us what Leonard is on pace to do.
In terms of Player Efficiency Rating (among players who played at least 100 minutes in the playoffs), only two players have ever had a higher PER during the playoffs: Hakeem Olajuwon (39.0 PER in 4 games in 1987-88) and LeBron James (37.4 PER in 14 games in 2008-09).
Basketball Reference Another stat used to measure efficiency is Points Per Shot. When you look at the 100 highest scoring postseasons of the Three Point Era (since 1980), Kawhi has the best Points Per Shot figure in history. This is the result of his absurd accuracy from the field, coupled with his ability to get to the line and make free throws.
Basketball Reference On top of that, Leonard is also contributing to winning basketball games at a higher rate than anyone in playoff history. So far, Leonard’s performance ranks first all-time in Win Shares per 48 minutes at 0.420, comfortably ahead of LeBron’s 0.399 mark he set in 2008-09.
Basketball Reference While there’s no guarantee that Kawhi will be able to sustain this nearly unprecedented performance through the playoffs, even if there is some regression, he is on the road to having one of the league’s greatest individual postseason performances. In their next round matchup against the Rockets, the Spurs will continue to lean heavily on their superstar and we will see what the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is capable of as he enters his offensive prime.

shamrock55

Derozan having a nightmare 1st qtr again, i dunno torontos shooting has been shocking,while cavs are hitting everything,this is gonna be another easy cavs win,ill srick around till half time anyway see if raps can do something,i have my doubts though

shamrock55

shamrock55 wrote: »

Derozan having a nightmare 1st qtr again, i dunno torontos shooting has been shocking,while cavs are hitting everything,this is gonna be another easy cavs win,ill srick around till half time anyway see if raps can do something,i have my doubts though

Miserable watching

A couple of stats I saw on Twitter during the game:

At one point it was Raptors 79 — James/Irving/Frye 73

LeBron James went 15-for-21 at the free throw line tonight. The Toronto Raptors went 14-for-19

LuckyLloyd

DeRozan 2 - 11 FGA for 5 points total all night.

If Toronto are going to win a game it will be game 3.

NufcNavan

I don't think it's possible for a series to be less entertaining.

nerd69

There are people online convinced that the Morris twins have swapped this series apparently they have identical tattoos who does that

LuckyLloyd

NufcNavan wrote: »

I don't think it's possible for a series to be less entertaining.

Not Cleveland's fault thus far. The Raptors had a year to prepare after last season's loss and they match up worse in terms of personnel I'd say.

ButtersSuki

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

DeRozan 2 - 11 FGA for 5 points total all night.

If Toronto are going to win a game it will be game 3.

After his 8 point effort against the Bucks in Rd. 1 he said it wouldn't happen again. He was right on one level I guess......:rolleyes:

I dug this out from May 2nd last year (as I knew there was a stat on Lowry & DeRozan and the playoffs):
I was reading something somewhere over the weekend which listed the 50 players with the worst fg% in playoff history. Lowry and DeRozan were both in the top 10......as in top 10 worst. Crazy!

K.O.Kiki

Hey ButtersSuki

Is your Game 1 post invalid now?

LOL

shamrock55

Derozan aside,the amount of easy shots toronto missed was unforgivable,cavs constantly open for 3s all night,raps defence was shocking,men against boys tbh,valanciunas was the only one who could hold his head up after last night,dont know how we gonna turn this one around though tbh

brady23

DeRozan like Aldridge for example are a dying breed of player who excel in the mid range where the risk/reward isn't as high and their skill sets become less effective in the post season due to better defense.

A player needs to shoot 60% in the mid range for shooting 40% from 3pt range and in a game thats getting faster and more about space. The ability to shoot 60% from the mid range is near impossible, in that 15ft type of range anyway.

I'm probably more critical of mid range players than most but anyone especially guards who don't shoot at least mid-high 30s from the 3pt line are becoming less and less effective.

For Forks Sake

nerd69 wrote: »

There are people online convinced that the Morris twins have swapped this series apparently they have identical tattoos who does that

https://theringer.com/2017-nba-playoffs-markieff-marcus-morris-twins-conspiracy-corner-ea07a7499f8c

Writer clearly has far too much free time on their hands

brady23

I was ambitiously hoping for a Raptors/Wizards final but it looks like that ship has sailed.

Wizards are still in with a chance, they've pushed Boston both games after getting off to great starts and I think they have the 3rd best player in the East after LBJ and Giannis.

Obviously they need to bounce back and whichever Morris twin is out there needs to avoid foul trouble.

I'll be pretty disappointed if they go down 3-0 given they way they've played at times, you'd obviously have to lean towards Boston winning but no matter what, the Cavs look phenomenonal, arguably better than this stage last year.

I said I liked the field vs the CAVS but I think that might look like a poor shout, I don't see them beating the Warriors still , as their defense hasn't improved much but when LBJ is playing like this who knows.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/javale-mcgee-is-no-joke/?addata=espn:nba:index

K.O.Kiki

brady23 wrote: »

DeRozan like Aldridge for example are a dying breed of player who excel in the mid range where the risk/reward isn't as high and their skill sets become less effective in the post season due to better defense.

A player needs to shoot 60% in the mid range for shooting 40% from 3pt range and in a game thats getting faster and more about space. The ability to shoot 60% from the mid range is near impossible, in that 15ft type of range anyway.

I'm probably more critical of mid range players than most but anyone especially guards who don't shoot at least mid-high 30s from the 3pt line are becoming less and less effective.

For Forks Sake wrote: »

https://theringer.com/2017-nba-playoffs-markieff-marcus-morris-twins-conspiracy-corner-ea07a7499f8c

Writer clearly has far too much free time on their hands

They're not identical tattoos.

ButtersSuki

K.O.Kiki wrote: »

Hey ButtersSuki

Is your Game 1 post invalid now?

LOL

Wonderfully insightful post.

ButtersSuki

shamrock55 wrote: »

Derozan aside,the amount of easy shots toronto missed was unforgivable,cavs constantly open for 3s all night,raps defence was shocking,men against boys tbh,valanciunas was the only one who could hold his head up after last night,dont know how we gonna turn this one around though tbh

Yup, and ironically he (JV) was pretty much useless in game 1 which was another blowout (Cavs up 20 going into the 4th). They have massive problems.

ButtersSuki

brady23 wrote: »

I was ambitiously hoping for a Raptors/Wizards final but it looks like that ship has sailed.

Wizards are still in with a chance, they've pushed Boston both games after getting off to great starts and I think they have the 3rd best player in the East after LBJ and Giannis.

Obviously they need to bounce back and whichever Morris twin is out there needs to avoid foul trouble.

I'll be pretty disappointed if they go down 3-0 given they way they've played at times, you'd obviously have to lean towards Boston winning but no matter what, the Cavs look phenomenonal, arguably better than this stage last year.

I said I liked the field vs the CAVS but I think that might look like a poor shout, I don't see them beating the Warriors still , as their defense hasn't improved much but when LBJ is playing like this who knows.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/javale-mcgee-is-no-joke/?addata=espn:nba:index

Given the closeness of the 2 games to date I'd suspect we'll be going back to Boston tied at 2-2.

LuckyLloyd

https://twitter.com/SheaSerrano/status/859924980313841665

I mean, jesus. The King!

LuckyLloyd

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebron-doesnt-get-better-in-the-playoffs-hes-always-this-good/?ex_cid=538twitter

Interesting article - Curry suffers a significant drop off in playoff basketball, something we discussed here a couple of weeks back. It also confirms what I always suspected - that Baron Davis was money come playoff time.

shamrock55

Why cant the raptors hit a ****ing 3 pointer

shamrock55

Thats more like it demar-keep it going raps

qwabercd

Annoying that this isn't on bt. Derozan really heating up now.

Edit - finally a three pointer goes for the raptors

shamrock55

Toronto 0 for 12 in 3pointers, any team with stats like that is gonna find it very hard to beat the likes of the cavs