US considering Preemptive Strike against North Korea.

BoatMad

Evie Big Troop wrote: »

And your solution to the situation is?

china will sort it out, it wants to be the worlds economic leader, it dissent want this pipsqueak screwing that up.

sit back and wait

TotalReality

BoatMad wrote: »

China will intervene to quieten Pyongyang, Trumps rhetoric is aimed at that. ( to get china off the fence )

China has way to much to loose compared to its position in the world during the Korean war

I see it like this

Beijing " get me Kim on the line "
Kim" " yes "
Beijing: " OK OK , you've had your fun, now its pissing us off, like seriously pissing us off"
kim:" I dont really care"
Beijing " oh thats ok, well we will withdraw food, technology finance , etc etc ", "I'm sure it will be fine " , oh and perhaps a few 100,000 Chineese army will wander around your borders "
Kim " oh but you're our friends "
Beijing " not for much longer , think very carefully "

,,,,,,,,

Hasn't happened yet,but it's the best scenario even though I believe it's been tried already.

4068ac1elhodqr

BoatMad wrote: »

China will intervene to quieten Pyongyang, Trumps rhetoric is aimed at that. ( to get china off the fence )

Can agree with this, that would be the best and most efficient practical solution above all else. It would also take more than a phone call, they'll actually have to show up at his front door.

The very big question is.... Why hasn't it happened yet???

mad muffin

Looks like they’ve declared a thumb war!

BoatMad

Evie Big Troop wrote: »

Can agree with this, that would be the best and most efficient practical solution above all else. It would also take more than a phone call, they'll actually have to show up at his front door.

The very big question is.... Why hasn't it happened yet???

because its takes time for China to act, it doesnt want to act prematurely and destroy its relationship with NK, so its waits and sees if the situation will calm itself.

If it doesnt they will act and yes turn up on the front door, ( in a nice suit, with a big smile and a huge stick)

BoatMad

TotalReality wrote: »

Hasn't happened yet,but it's the best scenario even though I believe it's been tried already.

no it hasn't , China has largely sat on the fence, not wanting to overtly side with the US ( especially under Trump ) , however once this situation come anywhere near to interfering with Chinas intended world domination Pyongyang will be sat on , and hard

4068ac1elhodqr

BoatMad wrote: »

because its takes time for China to act, it doesnt want to act prematurely and destroy its relationship with NK, so its waits and sees if the situation will calm itself.

If it doesnt they will act and yes turn up on the front door, ( in a nice suit, with a big smile and a huge stick)

Maybe China has invested in Tw stock and are waiting for peak chart before calling it short. Donald has added approx $8bn to their stock value.

On a plus note, one of the Oracles I follow (90% accuracy) has predicted exactly this, i.e. the internal removal of Kim, but the timeline is Dec/Jan.

But there will be some minor conflict issues before this point including enforcing the trade embargoes with nk.

Richard Hillman

The Yankees won't have to do the half arsed approach of hearts and minds in this war. They'll obliterate NK from the skies and the South Koreans will do the policing.

This will be a traditional trench and aerial war, not an Occupier v Guerilla. The South Koreans will do the hearts and mind stuff after the downfall.

It will be similar to Germany after WW2. Everyone will deny they were part of the regime. The civilians will all say "we were against them all this time", "we didn't know of the camps".

BoatMad

They'll obliterate NK from the skies

Syria shows you ,that airpower while is decisive in swinging the balance , but in the end you need " boots on the ground". You simply cant subdue a nation solely by air power , this was tried in Vietnam, and it manifestly failed

SK isnt up to invading NK without massive US ground involvement

so unless the US is prepared to engage in genocide on a scale NEVER seen before, i.e. the virtual removal of a population , you are going to see a ground offensive if the US intervenes militarily

personally the US army cannot mount or sustain a ground invasion with its commitments elsewhere at the present time

hence I believe the US will not act militarily at this time , its current action is solely to shake china off the fence

TotalReality

BoatMad wrote: »

Syria shows you ,

Syria shows nothing compared to NK.
America backed the wrong horse in Syria.

BoatMad

TotalReality wrote: »

Syria shows nothing compared to NK.
America backed the wrong horse in Syria.

in reality US political policy in Syria is a complete fu&k-up , it wanted the regime gone because it was a soviet client state ( and is even more now) but it completely missed the rise of Muslim political/para military activism.

What I was saying is that Syria shows you airpower is decisive, in that it can swing a ground war one way or the other

but there still needs to be a " ground war "

You cannot subdue a country from the air , if it was possible , it would have worked in Vietnam, it simply doesnt work that way ( and the US military doctrine knows this and will not suggest it does work )

If Trump wishes to actually subdue NK, it will require a ground war, and the US military at this point in its commitments cannot commit to that

Hence Trump has no option but to shout treats in the hope China gets scared

TotalReality

BoatMad wrote: »

in reality US political policy in Syria is a complete fu&k-up , it wanted the regime gone because it was a soviet client state ( and is even more now) but it completely missed the rise of Muslim political activism.

What I was saying is that Syria shows you airpower is decisive, in that it can swing a ground war one way or the other

but there still needs to be a " ground war "

You cannot subdue a country from the air , if it was possible , it would have worked in Vietnam, it simply doesnt work that way ( and the US military doctrine knows this and will not suggest it does work )

If Trumo wishes to actually subdue NK, it will require a ground war, and the US military at this point in its commitments cannot commit to that

Hence Trump has no option but to shout treats in the hope China gets scared

Im not sure you know what you're talking about in regards to Syria.

I disagree with the rest of your post,simply because NK is not like any other "enemy" America has faced.

I see America attacking and taking out Kim and his leadership,BUT already having in place an agreement with China to stabilise the region afterwards.

I agree wholeheartedly about nothing happening in NK without Chinas involvement.

BoatMad

Im not sure you know what you're talking about in regards to Syria.

I was addressing the issue that airpower cannot subdue a country, A nuclear option would be the only potential way and thats simply not going ti be used unless NK denotes a nuke on someone else

I disagree with the rest of your post,simply because NK is not like any other "enemy" America has faced.

More importantly NK is not a strategic enemy of the US at all actually, the old cold war issues are now no longer in play, China is more interested in economic world domination not its little red book ( and it has a middle class to look after now )

I see America attacking and taking out Kim and his leadership,

what using the" KIM " seeking missile !!!!. China will NEVER countenance US military action against NK, China will simply act against NK first to subdue the regime.

TotalReality

BoatMad wrote: »

I was addressing the issue that airpower cannot subdue a country, A nuclear option would be the only potential way and thats simply not going ti be used unless NK denotes a nuke on someone else



More importantly NK is not a strategic enemy of the US at all actually, the old cold war issues are now no longer in play, China is more interested in economic world domination not its little red book ( and it has a middle class to look after now )



what using the" KIM " seeking missile !!!!. China will NEVER countenance US military action against NK, China will simply act against NK first to subdue the regime.

Fair points.
Except the last silly "KIM seeking missile retort".

BoatMad

Except the last silly "KIM seeking missile retort".

which was a sarcastic retort to

"taking out Kim and his leadership"

which is a nonsense, simply removing KIM wont solve the issue, The US should be entirely aware that merely removing figureheads does very little to solve the issue

TotalReality

BoatMad wrote: »

which was a sarcastic retort to

"taking out Kim and his leadership"

which is a nonsense, simply removing KIM wont solve the issue, The US should be entirely aware that merely removing figureheads does very little to solve the issue

Why not?
If China is on board to take over from Kim then I dont see an issue.

Gringo180

My god some on here are watching too many Hollywood movies. Is this the same American military might who were sent out of Iraq with there tails between there legs. How many years in Iraq fighting against men with weapons from the 80s and 90s? 5% of the men that fought in Iraq are no longer with us and there was over 30 thousand, thats about a fifth of them injured or seriously maimed.

BoatMad

TotalReality wrote: »

Why not?
If China is on board to take over from Kim then I dont see an issue.

China has no intention of that

nor is their any need for the US to do anything , china will resolve the NK issue

TotalReality

BoatMad wrote: »

China has no intention of that

nor is their any need for the US to do anything , china will resolve the NK issue

How do you know this?
Youre spouting a lot of opinion as fact.

BoatMad

Gringo180 wrote: »

My god some on here are watching too many Hollywood movies. Is this the same American military might who were sent out of Iraq with there tails between there legs. How many years in Iraq fighting against men with weapons from the 80s and 90s? 5% of the men that fought in Iraq are no longer with us and there was over 30 thousand, thats about a fifth of them injured or seriously maimed.

you miss the point, the US body count as a total of its " military under arms " is very small ,

only 21 days of active combat was undertaken to invade and control Iraq ( in a broad military sense )

The issue is when you create a non-functioning country, what do you do, its at that point that the US military ( and all militaries) show their inherent weakness. That is , you cant " nation build " from a Humvee

Conquest has to be followed by " colonisation " , the brits performed it extremely well for a few hundred years

If you dont do the " colonisation " bit, eventually the invaded rise up in your face
( well in most cases they rise up a few years later anyway )

what the US has tried to do , is invade and " leave " , but like the Eagles song ," you can check out, but you can never leave " leaving is very difficult

Gatling

BoatMad wrote: »

Syria shows you ,that airpower while is decisive in swinging the balance , but in the end you need " boots on the ground". You simply cant subdue a nation solely by air power , this was tried in Vietnam, and it manifestly failed

SK isnt up to invading NK without massive US ground involvement

so unless the US is prepared to engage in genocide on a scale NEVER seen before, i.e. the virtual removal of a population , you are going to see a ground offensive if the US intervenes militarily

I think your wrong,
Why would they have to remove the population,

Way over estimation , unless Kim suddenly issues Aks and RPGs to his entire population it won't need to be wiped out ,
Just like nuclear weapons are not the only other option either ,

I'm sure at some point people would have thought the exact same as east and west Germany and looked what happened look at the whole of Eastern Europe as prime example of over estimation of what's behind a wall ,

Bar Kim's artillery which again I believe the threat is over guestimated as to what it can reach and Actually hit with any great accuracy ,
Once a war breaks out Kim can't move anything in great numbers without getting targeted from the air using multiple platforms that can operate in all weathers and 24/7 cover ,
South Korea has a large and capable military force with and weapon systems so I wouldn't discount them out of any fight ,
But for the most part south Korea are set up to repel attacks and potential invasions from NK so they will stay in there comfort zone for now ,

Gatling

Gringo180 wrote: »

My god some on here are watching too many Hollywood movies.

Even worse are the people watching Kremlin movies to this day ....

Ipso

Maybe the odd Kim movie. All NK have going for them is the quick strike against Seoul.

BoatMad

TotalReality wrote: »

How do you know this?
Youre spouting a lot of opinion as fact.

sorry , I cant tell the future. nor can you .


what I do contend is

(A) The US will not act pre-emptively in any significant way, unless directly provoked( by an overt act of war) . it would become a pariah state if it did and the US military will not be forced into an Iraq style intervention again

(B) It will act if any nuclear strike is contemplated by NK.( an actual strike , not rhetoric ) It has enough technology to prevent Kim from doing that

(C) China has far too many other interests to allow NK to upset the apple cart , Te days when Korea was a proxy war for the West and Communism are over. China has bigger fish to fry

(D) Trumps bluster is just that, He will not strike pre-emptively as this could provoke Chinese military action.( and NK action against Seoul ) But his bluster will, in my view, provoke China to intervene to calm the situation and thats what Trump is doing ( his rocket man quote not withstanding )

Ipso

BoatMad wrote: »

sorry , I cant tell the future. nor can you .


what I do contend is

(A) The US will not act pre-emptively in any significant way, unless directly provoked( by an overt act of war) . it would become a pariah state if it did and the US military will not be forced into an Iraq style intervention again

(B) It will act if any nuclear strike is contemplated by NK.( an actual strike , not rhetoric ) It has enough technology to prevent Kim from doing that

(C) China has far too many other interests to allow NK to upset the apple cart , Te days when Korea was a proxy war for the West and Communism are over. China has bigger fish to fry

(D) Trumps bluster is just that, He will not strike pre-emptively as this could provoke Chinese military action.( and NK action against Seoul ) But his bluster will, in my view, provoke China to intervene to calm the situation and thats what Trump is doing ( his rocket man quote not withstanding )

He's too fragile and a last word freak. Fat Boy Kim's posturing is geared purely toward his own country (obviously they don't get to see the res of the world's reaction to Kim), Trump needs to ignore that as it makes him look like a petulant teenager.

Madagascan

NK has already declared war.
The USA is showing great restraint.

Kermit.de.frog

North Korea claiming the US has "declared war" on them is the most delinquent statement yet.

LordSutch

I wonder will US fighter jets/bombers fly close to NK again anytime soon? and if they do, can we expect them to he shot out of the sky by the North Koreans?

ZeroThreat

LordSutch wrote: »

I wonder will US fighter jets/bombers fly close to NK again anytime soon? and if they do, can we expect them to he shot out of the sky by the North Koreans?

I'm sure any modern planes in the US arsenal have more than sufficient jamming and countermeasures to evade North Korea's 50/60s era SAMs.

Infini

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

North Korea claiming the US has "declared war" on them is the most delinquent statement yet.

To be honest they said they declared war about 7 or 8 times. Nothing happened. They're not living in a fantasy land over there they know full well that they cant give trump any excuse to attack them. Theyre probably unnerved by the fact theyre facing an economic blockade as the price for their nukes while having more and more shows of force made on their doorstep.

It's a flame war for now. The US wont attack first without a serious provocation as they have to consider the safety of Japan and South Korea regardless of the bluster. It also well known Trump is a shytetalker and cant be taken seriously on everything he says. If NK shoots first though especially in international territory it would backfire spetacularly and they know this. They would be dense and insanely stupid to hand the US an excuse to attack.