US considering Preemptive Strike against North Korea.

PREG1967

Discodog wrote: »

I wouldn't be so sure. If the Americans were to act they would probably have every gun capable of reaching Seoul targeted. They could launch a huge missile strike & combined with airpower, knock out most of the artillery before they could fire a shot. Especially as the commanders will need authority & only one man can give it. It would be shock & awe but on a scale not seen before. The ground attack aircraft, Apaches etc would have a field day.

Kim's communications would be useless. He would have no idea what was happening. The great thing about dictators is they rarely follow the advice of their military.

roughly 300 ballistic missiles cant be sniffed at

Gatling

Samaris wrote: »

Edit: You might be right there, Discodog, I don't know if they can target all of them, or even enough to ensure Seoul doesn't come under heavy fire. There's a hell of a lot of them. But it's some risk to take with South Korean lives unless everyone is absolutely sure that all hell is otherwise going to break loose.

From what I've read over the last 30 years is all of the artillery is densely packed together making it A - easy to target in a Strike ,B- dangerous been one explosion would likely lead to cathostopic chain reaction settings off ammunition and fuels in the same area,
America has also been flying over and surveilling from North Korea since the end of the war from the U2 -SR 71 blackbird and onto various stealth aircraft,.
It would be safe to say they know where everything dangerous is us ,

The question would be what would acceptable losses to south and the US

bilston

Samaris wrote: »

With NK pretty much holding SK at gunpoint, it's been a forty (?) year hostage negotiation with three generations of nutters. Problem is, he absolutely would blow up the hostage if he feels threatened and everyone knows it. Madman theory's worked for NK so far, so why stop a good thing.

I honestly think the only way this is going to end is an uprising, probably due to hunger. It's going to be awful and messy and have a high casualty count, but it's about the only way I see it ending without Seoul in ruins.

This is one of the cases where I think intervention is justified - they are holding another country under threat so they can raise the firepower to put other countries under threat. Unfortunately, damned if I can see a way to intervene that doesn't make it all kick off.

I think the Americans would have to be confident they could eliminate any nuclear threat from NK quickly. I think they admitted that it would take 48 to.72 hours to take out North Koreas ability to hit Soeul and in that 3 day period a lot of people could die even in a conventional conflict.

Really the US cannot act unless SO and Japan give them the green light. They are the ones that could pay a very heavy price.

In the long run dealing with Kim now makes more sense. 5 years from now it won't just be SK he is holding to ransom, it could be the whole world.

But given the potential cost of war diplomacy has to be the best way forward here and that's where China comes in.

Samaris

Samaris wrote: »

I honestly think the only way this is going to end is an uprising, probably due to hunger. It's going to be awful and messy and have a high casualty count, but it's about the only way I see it ending without Seoul in ruins.

.

With a total control over the citizens of NK, there is virtually no chance of any dissident action gaining any hold anywhere in the country, as it would be put down ruthlessly and the whole event will be completely hushed up.

Any regime overthrow, would need to come from the top brass, and quite a few have "disappeared" in recent months. So with such frequent purges, that is also an unlikely source of uprising. The general population have been completely indoctrinated into believing that NK is "paradise on Earth" and the Great leader is to be thanked for that and anyone who expresses an opinion contrary to that official viewpoint is likely to disappear.

Discodog

PREG1967 wrote: »

roughly 300 ballistic missiles cant be sniffed at

What payload ? At least 50% would probably fail. A high proportion would be destroyed before they ever took off. If it were totally sudden the chain of command would be broken. Kim wouldn't know what was happening until it was too late. He might even be killed with the first strike.

The US would have the justification for a total unprecedented assault in order to protect the South & the threat of nuclear weapons. The US has the bases & the hardware. NK imagines a war involving thousands of soldiers. He talks of the masses of suicide fighters that would stream over the border. They would be sitting ducks.

Discodog

bilston wrote: »

I think the Americans would have to be confident they could eliminate any nuclear threat from NK quickly. I think they admitted that it would take 48 to.72 hours to take out North Koreas ability to hit Soeul and in that 3 day period a lot of people could die even in a conventional conflict.

Really the US cannot act unless SO and Japan give them the green light. They are the ones that could pay a very heavy price.

In the long run dealing with Kim now makes more sense. 5 years from now it won't just be SK he is holding to ransom, it could be the whole world.

But given the potential cost of war diplomacy has to be the best way forward here and that's where China comes in.

They might say that but I bet it would take a few hours. You would be talking about the biggest, instant attack in history. Japan won't even notice.

CoolHandBandit

The situation I think has the potential to be a catastrophe for the region and indeed the world. The more I examine the potential of leaving NK with ICBM's the more I think the US in conjunction with China, Japan and the South have to and are going to act very soon.

Weak governance from Obama over the last 8 years has brought us to this dangerous point in history.

PREG1967

Discodog wrote: »

What payload ? At least 50% would probably fail. A high proportion would be destroyed before they ever took off. If it were totally sudden the chain of command would be broken. Kim wouldn't know what was happening until it was too late. He might even be killed with the first strike.

The US would have the justification for a total unprecedented assault in order to protect the South & the threat of nuclear weapons. The US has the bases & the hardware. NK imagines a war involving thousands of soldiers. He talks of the masses of suicide fighters that would stream over the border. They would be sitting ducks.

at payload of 1000 kg cant be sniffed at either

Discodog

PREG1967 wrote: »

at payload of 1000 kg cant be sniffed at either

So out of 300 maybe 100 would be launched & maybe 50 would land on target, barely more than one B52. I actually don't think that more than 10 would land. They are priority target number one & not easy to hide. Plus the equipment is in place to destroy the few that take off, in flight. The US would employ radar jamming & countermeasures. We are talking about very primitive missiles.

RandomName2

Silane wrote: »

Mutual Destruction?? Haha, seriously doubt that. You're grossly overestimating North Korea's force projection capability.

Of course it's mutually assured destruction... of Koreas.

Playing brinkmanship with a loony is not particularly wise. Sanctions have failed to work, and are causing more harm than good. Nuclear ICBM interception has to be properly developed, and it will require getting over Chinese (and possibly Russian) intransigence to make that work.

But none of this will do much about North Korea's conventional artillery, which is alone sufficient to destroy Seoul within a couple of hours.

Matpuk4321

Irish, the white flag Heros. That is if they're not serving the brutish empire. Pathetic creatures

Discodog

RandomName2 wrote: »

Of course it's mutually assured destruction... of Koreas.

Playing brinkmanship with a loony is not particularly wise. Sanctions have failed to work, and are causing more harm than good. Nuclear ICBM interception has to be properly developed, and it will require getting over Chinese (and possibly Russian) intransigence to make that work.

But none of this will do much about North Korea's conventional artillery, which is alone sufficient to destroy Seoul within a couple of hours.

The US airforce & Apaches would devastate fixed artillery. We aren't in WW2 anymore or the previous Korean war

PREG1967

Discodog wrote: »

So out of 300 maybe 100 would be launched & maybe 50 would land on target, barely more than one B52. I actually don't think that more than 10 would land. They are priority target number one & not easy to hide. Plus the equipment is in place to destroy the few that take off, in flight. The US would employ radar jamming & countermeasures. We are talking about very primitive missiles.

what about the nukes kim would employ on SK ports and Airfields to thwart any US invasion ?

Gatling

The figures for the South Korean military is impressive
2400 main battle tanks
2700 fighting vehicles
2400 armoured vehicles
5800 artillery and MLRs pieces
Not including heavy artillery and field guns and mortars numbers in double figures thousands ,
And that's before what America and japan can bring to the table

Discodog

PREG1967 wrote: »

what about the nukes kim would employ on SK ports and Airfields to thwart any US invasion ?

What nukes ? One nuke & Pyongyang would cease to exist. NK has detonated a nuke. That's a long way from delivering one. Any NK plane will be shot down in seconds.

It's one reason to act soon before they can deliver a nuke

PREG1967

Discodog wrote: »

What nukes ? One nuke & Pyongyang would cease to exist. NK has detonated a nuke. That's a long way from delivering one. Any NK plane will be shot down in seconds.

It's one reason to act soon before they can deliver a nuke

exactly, the only way the US can attack NK is all out nuclear attack, but Kim will also release much devastation on SK, whether you believe it or not, and he surely can attach a dirty bomb to his short and medium range missiles at this stage, there is no easy military US solution, otherwise why would 4 US presidents failed to find one,SK and Japan will not agree to all out war and their approval is key to any attack as they will take the brunt of NK weapons, so this theatre of drama will likely crank up for many more years to come

Samaris

One hint as to something about to go down is an evacuation of foreigners from SK, especially Seoul (unsurprisingly, admittedly). I was reading an account from one relatively high-ranking NK (military) defector who said that they have been training for at least a decade (before he high-tailed it) to infiltrate SK and kidnap western tourists as hostages if a strike appeared imminent. They keep quite a spy ring going as to which western tourists are currently in Seoul as an updating list of targets.

Discodog

PREG1967 wrote: »

exactly, the only way the US can attack NK is all out nuclear attack, but Kim will also release much devastation on SK, whether you believe it or not, and he surely can attach a dirty bomb to his short and medium range missiles at this stage, there is no easy military US solution, otherwise why would 4 US presidents failed to find one,SK and Japan will not agree to all out war and their approval is key to any attack as they will take the brunt of NK weapons, so this theatre of drama will likely crank up for many more years to come

That is totally ridiculous. If the US act soon there won't be any NK nukes to worry about. The other presidents didn't have NK nukes to think about. NK have dramatically accelerated any action because the US, South Korea, Japan & China cannot allow NK to have a deliverable nuke.

Psychlops

The US has now deployed 2 extra Aircraft Carriers to the Korean region, so that's 3 Aircraft Carriers now, considering a signle Carrier is a bettle group that includes each of their own guided missile destroyers & submarines that accompany each single Carrier where ever they go.

USS Carl Vinson, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Nimitz, They are all Carrier Groups.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-17/

A single carrier strike group is roughly made up of the following:

A carrier strike group[1] (CSG) is an operational formation of the United States Navy. It is composed of roughly 7,500 personnel, an aircraft carrier, at least one cruiser, a destroyer squadron of at least two destroyers and/or frigates,[2] and a carrier air wing of 65 to 70 aircraft. A carrier strike group also, on occasion, includes submarines, attached logistics ships and a supply ship.

Gatling

PREG1967 wrote: »

exactly, the only way the US can attack NK is all out nuclear attack, but Kim will also release much devastation on SK, whether you believe it or not, and he surely can attach a dirty bomb to his short and medium range missiles at this stage, there is no easy military US solution, otherwise why would 4 US presidents failed to find one,SK and Japan will not agree to all out war and their approval is key

I don't believe your opinion is based off anything factual ,

4 US presidents were happy to sit and ignore the old Kim and new kim regeim now Kim jr has 12-16 Nuclear weapons and a very bullish Donald trump ,
America won't nuke any part of Korea North or south ,

What ever happens Kim won't be seeing out a long dynasty

PREG1967

Discodog wrote: »

That is totally ridiculous. If the US act soon there won't be any NK nukes to worry about. The other presidents didn't have NK nukes to think about. NK have dramatically accelerated any action because the US, South Korea, Japan & China cannot allow NK to have a deliverable nuke.

North Korean nuclear program has its roots in the 1950s so its been relevant for all those presidents, NK did a nuke test in 2006 when BUsh was in power, obama was in power for others and now Trump

Discodog

Gatling wrote: »

I don't believe your opinion is based off anything factual ,

4 US presidents were happy to sit and ignore the old Kim and new kim regeim now Kim jr has 12-16 Nuclear weapons and a very bullish Donald trump ,
America won't nuke any part of Korea North or south ,

What ever happens Kim won't be seeing out a long dynasty

I don't think that he has one. If he does then he has no way to deliver it except driving it to the border. The US know exactly what he has & probably where it's kept. Last week it was one MOAB. Those nuclear bunkers will be showered with the bunker busting equivalent.

Discodog

PREG1967 wrote: »

North Korean nuclear program has its roots in the 1950s so its been relevant for all those presidents, NK did a nuke test in 2006 when BUsh was in power, obama was in power for others and now Trump

The USA could only bomb Hiroshima because they had a plane capable of carrying the bomb. Even if NK had a plane it would be shot down probably before it could take off. The US would have total air superiority.

Gatling

Discodog wrote: »

I don't think that he has one. If he does then he has no way to deliver it except driving it to the border. The US know exactly what he has & probably where it's kept. Last week it was one MOAB. Those nuclear bunkers will be showered with the bunker busting equivalent.

It's widely acknowledged he has ,i remember china cliamed he had 20 nuclear weapons ,but I and several others including yourself have said he doesn't have the ability to mount a nuclear warhead/s to any missles​,

Discodog

Gatling wrote: »

It's widely acknowledged he has ,i remember china cliamed he had 20 nuclear weapons ,but I and several others including yourself have said he doesn't have the ability to mount a nuclear warhead/s to any missles​,

A Nuke that you can't use just becomes a target that you pray doesn't get hit. Every NK facility & base would be devastated. The presence of those Nukes & I wouldn't believe the Chinese, means that the US can be totally unrestrained. It also means that once it starts it has to continue to the end or to we are sure that he no longer has a nuclear capacity.

I could see NK trying to sell a Nuke to ISIS

me_right_one

I'm suspicious of China in all of this. They are the shneakiest of shneaks. They could be secretly egging Kim on, just to provoke some action from Trump. Then they'll have an ace-up-their-sleeve that 'Murica was baeing aggressive and attackedthier ally, that they can use at a later date if necessary

PREG1967

Discodog wrote: »

A Nuke that you can't use just becomes a target that you pray doesn't get hit. Every NK facility & base would be devastated. The presence of those Nukes & I wouldn't believe the Chinese, means that the US can be totally unrestrained. It also means that once it starts it has to continue to the end or to we are sure that he no longer has a nuclear capacity.

I could see NK trying to sell a Nuke to ISIS

a dirty bomb and ISIS would be laughing,NK could sell them 100s at this point, why would they though as they are allied to Assad and ISIS are an enemy of Assad

Gatling

me_right_one wrote: »

I'm suspicious of China in all of this. They are the shneakiest of shneaks. They could be secretly egging Kim on, just to provoke some action from Trump. Then they'll have an ace-up-their-sleeve that 'Murica was baeing aggressive and attackedthier ally, that they can use at a later date if necessary

What ever happens expect them to sieze a large part of north Korea if Kim or his military capabilities are removed

Boggy Turf

me_right_one wrote: »

I'm suspicious of China in all of this. They are the shneakiest of shneaks.

They aren't actually. You were just made to believe that. They only care about one thing...business.

PREG1967

Boggy Turf wrote: »

They aren't actually. You were just made to believe that. They only care about one thing...business.

thats BS, they always cared about about the threat of the US on their border which was their worst nightmare, an NK collapse leaves China exposed along their border with NK which is the main reason why the fought the korean war so viciously and covertly and lost so many soldiers