US considering Preemptive Strike against North Korea.

BillyBobBS

Some amount of Kim apologists on here. A real eye opener.

Irish Praetorian

archer22 wrote: »

If lets just say for example if Britain had launched a massive bombing attack on the Irish republic in the 1950s that flattened nearly every building and killed 25% of the population.And every year since Britain held a dress rehearsal on the Northern Ireland border for another invasion...and imposed crippling sanctions on the ROI for trying to develop weapons of self defence and deterrence.
Would it then be fair to regard Britain as the good guy and the ROI as the bad guy who needed to "be taken out".

First of all small pet peeve, the 25% number is deduced when people take the total causality rate and apply it to just North Korea, the reality is somewhere in the 10% region - still not great but it's a pet peeve of mine.

Now co-incidentally enough what you're describing more or less happened to several other countries in the region at the hands of the United States, Japan during WW2 and Vietnam during the Cold War. One of them manage to prosper by becoming a modern democratic state, the other despite labouring under the failures of the Soviet bloc for quite some time is also managing to develop quite nicely.

The problem for these countries is not that the US bombed them 50, 60, 70 years ago; the problem these countries have is some of them tried to modernise and improve whilst others decided to become tinpot dictatorship. And what is the easiest way to maintain a tinpot dictatorship? By peddling stories of foreign danger and aggression. Any critical reading of US foreign policy would rapidly demonstrate that dictatorships can develop a modus vivendi with the US quite easily - North Korea however seems to be uninterested in that and prefers to sabre rattle.

mbur wrote: »

I think 64 years of persecution trumps 10 years yada yada. I suppose the three years of carpet bombing 1950 to 53 is just business as usual to you. So by all means you can plead the case of American exceptionalism all you want. They can threaten anyone anywhere any time. It's their right or so you think.

And pray tell what exactly would this persecution consist of? 40 years as protected part of the Eastern Bloc? 20 something years as a backwards dictatorship making its own mistakes? You can plead empty arguments of suffering all you want, it makes no difference, Japan and Vietnam both experienced something similar, and managed to develop into modern states regardless. So if you're looking for a reason to explain North Korea's stagnancy, you will need to look somewhere else, and a good place to start might be the totalitarian government.

Infini

Looking at this way things could go either way at this stage.

China and Russia want dialogue even though North Korea is the belligerent and not interested.
They want the US/SK to stop their military exercises but at the same time these are a RESULT of NK's belligerence.
North Korea keeps ignoring the UN they just dont care and pushing foward.
Some believe Kimmys smart others dumb. I think hes desperate because he's facing enemies from within and from outside. He's playing a dangerous game that could go to hell very quickly.

This is a tinderbox situation all it takes is one screwup or miscalculation and the shyte will hit the fan. At the very least it could involve military strikes on its nuclear facilities at this rate. Some say that North Korea might retaliate on Seoul but that could easily cause a counterstrike either by a direct decapacitation strike on kimmy and co or on Pyongyang itself instead.

What happens then is whether this goes completely FUBAR or not. If NK at least pauses after that they could survive albeit with a bloody nose for a long time however if they were to use Nukes or Bio-weapons its a guaranteed game over for them as the most likely responce in that situation would be a Nuclear Retaliation under those conditions.

The real game changer in all this is their supposed Hbomb. A Hbomb detonation at high altitude would be more devastating than a nuclear strke on a city simply because it would fry all electronics over a MUCH greater area. That's why I think things are at their most dangerous atm.

Divelment

Infini wrote: »

Looking at this way things could go either way at this stage.

China and Russia want dialogue even though North Korea is the belligerent and not interested.
They want the US/SK to stop their military exercises but at the same time these are a RESULT of NK's belligerence.
North Korea keeps ignoring the UN they just dont care and pushing foward.
Some believe Kimmys smart others dumb. I think hes desperate because he's facing enemies from within and from outside. He's playing a dangerous game that could go to hell very quickly.

This is a tinderbox situation all it takes is one screwup or miscalculation and the shyte will hit the fan. At the very least it could involve military strikes on its nuclear facilities at this rate. Some say that North Korea might retaliate on Seoul but that could easily cause a counterstrike either by a direct decapacitation strike on kimmy and co or on Pyongyang itself instead.

What happens then is whether this goes completely FUBAR or not. If NK at least pauses after that they could survive albeit with a bloody nose for a long time however if they were to use Nukes or Bio-weapons its a guaranteed game over for them as the most likely responce in that situation would be a Nuclear Retaliation under those conditions.

The real game changer in all this is their supposed Hbomb. A Hbomb detonation at high altitude would be more devastating than a nuclear strke on a city simply because it would fry all electronics over a MUCH greater area. That's why I think things are at their most dangerous atm.

I think the US are gonna strike first and sooner than we all think. There is a line drawn in the sand now and you only need to step back and see how it is all heading in one very unpleasant direction. You've two people who won't back down, I can't see it ending without a war.

ilkhanid

archer22 wrote: »

If lets just say for example if Britain had launched a massive bombing attack on the Irish republic in the 1950s that flattened nearly every building and killed 25% of the population.And every year since Britain held a dress rehearsal on the Northern Ireland border for another invasion...and imposed crippling sanctions on the ROI for trying to develop weapons of self defence and deterrence..

Astonishing that the one most salient fact is the one you ignore. Listening to you, you'd think North Korea was just minding it's own business when the dastardy Yankees started bombing out of sheer badness. The bombing was in response to the North Korean invasion. And the Americans and South Koreans woud be incompetent if they didn't continually rehearse for a war that might be round the corner any day.

mbur wrote: »

I think 64 years of persecution trumps 10 years yada yada. I suppose the three years of carpet bombing 1950 to 53 is just business as usual to you. So by all means you can plead the case of American exceptionalism all you want. They can threaten anyone anywhere any time. It's their right or so you think.

Let me get this straight:the regime that tried to murder every one of the South Korean government is the persecuted one. Yeah, and Hitler was just misunderstood.
The North Korean regime could have stopped the bombing any time they wanted.

Gringo180 wrote: »

This would be a perfect analogy if that Bouncer previously burned the scobes house down and killed half of his family in the process.

No, the this is the perfect analogy. Bouncer previously burned the scobes house down and killed half of his family in the process in a response after the Scobie broke inro the neighbours house and tried to murder them all....and keeps being a bad neighbour, throwing stones over the fence, lettting the dog sh1t on the lawn, trying to set neighbours house on fire.

4068ac1elhodqr

Divelment wrote: »

There is speculation that he is getting ready to launch another ICBM, I reckon the US will be taking the gloves off immediately afterwards.

BillyBobBS wrote: »

It will be shot down as soon as it leaves NK airspace. If it doesn't leave NK airspace nothing will happen.

I think Kim in mentally ill and liable to do anything at this stage. If he feels the walls closing in on him from within NK from the generals it's highly likely he attacks the South or Japan.

They can only take action if it's a 'direct impending threat', otherwise all they can do is put more sanctions on Kim's cheese n' wine suppliers.

Yes, Kim is very likely highly unstable and suffering from a constellation of personality disorders, as would their 'pink lady newscaster'.

Evie Big Troop

Evie Big Troop wrote: »

They can only take action if it's a 'direct impending threat', otherwise all they can do is put more sanctions on Kim's cheese n' wine suppliers.

Yes, Kim is very likely highly unstable and suffering from a constellation of personality disorders, as would their 'pink lady newscaster'.

The "pink Lady" looks like she is standing in the barrel of a cannon! :pac:

BillyBobBS

Head of IAEA quoted as saying "NK are now a global nuclear threat". Also the blast magnitude was the "highest ever recorded" in the recent test.

Gatling

mbur wrote: »

I'm astounded at the general level of ignorance being shown on this thread.
What the media has failed to mention about the North Korea missile test, is that for the last three weeks, Japan, South Korea and the US have been engaged in large-scale joint-military drills on Hokkaido Island and in South Korea

Been happening for 5 + decades there Defensive excerises the whole Defence of south Korea is based on holding the border at all costs it's not a invasion excerise.

Nice try though

4068ac1elhodqr

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Head of IAEA quoted as saying "NK are now a global nuclear threat". Also the blast magnitude was the "highest ever recorded" in the recent test.

It was even recorded in a high school in Donegal, must have been very loud indeed.

Gatling

josip wrote: »

Speaking of tinfoil hats, haven't China gotten nukes in shipping containers in yards in Washing, New York, LA, etc?
Sitting there quietly in case they're ever needed.

Conspiracy theories unfortunately

Divelment

Just had a Google to see where the guy lives, sounds like he has plans to hunker down for the long haul if attacked!

http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk02300&num=83

mbur

Divelment wrote: »

I think the US are gonna strike first and sooner than we all think. There is a line drawn in the sand now and you only need to step back and see how it is all heading in one very unpleasant direction. You've two people who won't back down, I can't see it ending without a war.

The experts on RTE this morning were very clear that no one in this game wants war. Including mr Kim. In their eyes the only loose cannon in this mother of all standoffs is the the US president. Apparently, as was done with Nixon and (I think) Clinton, steps are being taken to stop him doing anything rash.

Cheerful Spring

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Some amount of Kim apologists on here. A real eye opener.

Kim is a dictator and North Korea would be better off without him ,but don't try to paint America as the innocent party. America got a chance to denuclearize the region in 1994 and they undermined the deal after the 9/11 attacks.. Lets ignore Kim send a signal to the United states by not firing a missile at Guam! America had a chance to de-escalate (what they do instead) they had a war drill for 2 weeks right next door to NK.

The big worry now is Trump is annoying China with threats and Russia on the sidelines is not fond of America either. We better have everything in order who is backing who before we go to war. I don't want to wake up in the morning and hear China is at war with America.

ohnonotgmail

BillyBobBS wrote: »

Head of IAEA quoted as saying "NK are now a global nuclear threat". Also the blast magnitude was the "highest ever recorded" in the recent test.

Please tell me i'm not the only one who initially read this as IKEA.

Divelment

mbur wrote: »

The experts on RTE this morning were very clear that no one in this game wants war. Including mr Kim. In their eyes the only loose cannon in this mother of all standoffs is the the US president. Apparently, as was done with Nixon and (I think) Clinton, steps are being taken to stop him doing anything rash.

Nobody wanted WW1 or WW2 but these things happen when you have people like Hitler and KJU. He is playing a very dangerous game because all it takes now is one miscalculation, one missile to fall apart over Japan and take out a few families in a village somewhere and then all deals will be off, there will be retaliation and it won't be a few Tomahawk missiles on a runway, it'll go straight to "regime change".

Cheerful Spring

josip wrote: »

Speaking of tinfoil hats, haven't China gotten nukes in shipping containers in yards in Washing, New York, LA, etc?
Sitting there quietly in case they're ever needed.

China has advanced submarines and ICBM's they can take out cities in Europe and America at will. My biggest fear is China will help North Korea. If China is involved the war can slip from regional Asian war to a global war. You just know the UK will help America.

suicide_circus

Time to pick a side people. Who do you think will keep perpetuating the lifestyle you currently enjoy?

BillyBobBS

mbur wrote: »

The experts on RTE this morning were very clear that no one in this game wants war. Including mr Kim. In their eyes the only loose cannon in this mother of all standoffs is the the US president. Apparently, as was done with Nixon and (I think) Clinton, steps are being taken to stop him doing anything rash.

Haha typical RTE so full of sh it. Yeah Trump is a loose cannon and Kim is a saint. The comrades in Montrose never fail to amuse.

Cheerful Spring

Infini wrote: »

Looking at this way things could go either way at this stage.

China and Russia want dialogue even though North Korea is the belligerent and not interested.
They want the US/SK to stop their military exercises but at the same time these are a RESULT of NK's belligerence.
North Korea keeps ignoring the UN they just dont care and pushing foward.
Some believe Kimmys smart others dumb. I think hes desperate because he's facing enemies from within and from outside. He's playing a dangerous game that could go to hell very quickly.

This is a tinderbox situation all it takes is one screwup or miscalculation and the shyte will hit the fan. At the very least it could involve military strikes on its nuclear facilities at this rate. Some say that North Korea might retaliate on Seoul but that could easily cause a counterstrike either by a direct decapacitation strike on kimmy and co or on Pyongyang itself instead.

What happens then is whether this goes completely FUBAR or not. If NK at least pauses after that they could survive albeit with a bloody nose for a long time however if they were to use Nukes or Bio-weapons its a guaranteed game over for them as the most likely responce in that situation would be a Nuclear Retaliation under those conditions.

The real game changer in all this is their supposed Hbomb. A Hbomb detonation at high altitude would be more devastating than a nuclear strke on a city simply because it would fry all electronics over a MUCH greater area. That's why I think things are at their most dangerous atm.

A Hbomb detonated in the air, said by the Soviets, can cause an EMP that will fry all electronics and power.. The country will go dark essentially. Rumors for years the North Koreans got their hands on their plans and how to carry this out.

Divelment

suicide_circus wrote: »

Time to pick a side people. Who do you think will keep perpetuating the lifestyle you currently enjoy?

You could easily end up with China standing behind NK and Russia backing up China and then you have the US/UK/Australia/SK/Japan, everyone else basically on the other side, a clusterfuuk if ever there was one.

BillyBobBS

24 years of sanctions, 24 years of failure. That time is over.

Cheerful Spring

Divelment wrote: »

You could easily end up with China standing behind NK and Russia backing up China and then you have the US/UK/Australia/SK/Japan, everyone else basically on the other side, a clusterfuuk if ever there was one.

If Trump attacks North Korea for everyone sake i hope he has guarantees China and Russia will not be involved.

4068ac1elhodqr

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

A Hbomb detonated in the air, said by the Soviets, can cause an EMP that will fry all electronics and power.. The country will go dark essentially. Rumors for years the North Koreans got their hands on their plans and how to carry this out.

No plans needed, just set it off at very high-alt.

Divelment wrote: »

You could easily end up with China standing behind NK and Russia backing up China and then you have the US/UK/Australia/SK/Japan, everyone else basically on the other side, a clusterfuuk if ever there was one.

Fortunately Rus/Chi have a bit more sense than to back up a mad Kim beyond a few calming words. China have actually lost the go/chess game with this farce, as they're now heavily surrounded by new defensive positions and probably a soon to be fully nu-armed Japan on their doorstep.

BillyBobBS

Cheerful Spring wrote: »

If Trump attacks North Korea for everyone sake i hope he has guarantees China and Russia will not be involved.

It's not Trump attacking anyone it's the United States protecting it's own. I keep saying it but the US doesn't care about South Korea/Japan etc.. it only cares about Kim being able to put a nuke on an ICBM and hit LA/NY/Washington etc..

It's game over for NK and unfortunately millions in South Korea and possibly Japan will also die.

mbur

Divelment wrote: »

Nobody wanted WW1 or WW2 .

A very contestable statement. both very deliberately started IMHO.

I think Kim's recent test just made the world a safer place. He just priced himself out of the takeover market.

If Trump tries anything rash don't be surprised if the generals rebel and the establishment use this as an excuse to kick The Donald out of the Oval office.

Arthur Daley

The future of world peace at stake over a country of 20 million impoverished souls? Markets have barely reacted to all this, which tells us weeks and months of this brinkmanship and posturing are baked in. Although it will be interesting to see tommorow's US moves after the labor day holiday.

Cheerful Spring

BillyBobBS wrote: »

It's not Trump attacking anyone it's the United States protecting it's own. I keep saying it but the US doesn't care about South Korea/Japan etc.. it only cares about Kim being able to put a nuke on an ICBM and hit LA/NY/Washington etc..

It's game over for NK and unfortunately millions in South Korea and possibly Japan will also die.

Trump does not care and the hawks likely don't care, i would not claim everyone in the United States does not care!

I believe Trump would have attacked ages ago, his only stopped by his cabinet and south Korea and Japan telling him no give diplomacy a chance.

If the reports are correct and North is about to launch an ICBM towards the Pacific depending on where it lands, we could be seeing a war very soon.

Academic

Arthur Daley wrote: »

The future of world peace at stake over a country of 20 million impoverished souls? Markets have barely reacted to all this, which tells us weeks and months of this brinkmanship and posturing are baked in. Although it will be interesting to see tommorow's US moves after the labor day holiday.

European markets are open today. FTSE 100 is only down 0.36%

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/04/north-korea-tensions-ripple-through-global-financial-markets

4068ac1elhodqr

Arthur Daley wrote: »

...Markets have barely reacted to all this, which tells us weeks and months of this brinkmanship and posturing are baked in. Although it will be interesting to see tommorow's US moves after the labor day holiday.

Ignore (stock) market data. Now 'Gold' spot prices are more important, and heading to near 4yr high, with very very strong 2mth gains!
If NK vanished, it wouldn't impact the blue chips or any stock markets in any serious way.

Now if gold rushes up to $1600+ all of a sudden then something more dramatic may be afoot, that's the only real global safe haven/standard.
Silver is strong, but may well move up 15% over the next month to about $21oz