2017 UK General Election - 8th June

BoatMad

FrancieBrady wrote: »

BBC cutting forecast by 4 seats. 318 now

they have given Tories 318 , in a parliament where they need 326, ( if SF attended )

we could see a situation where SF abstentionism , results in the Tory party remaining in power and instituting a hard brexit

damm the scots , rescuing the Tories in an attempt to hit the SNP

Peregrinus

BoatMad wrote: »

they have given Tories 318 , in a parliament where they need 326, ( if SF attended )

we could see a situation where SF abstentionism , results in the Tory party remaining in power and instituting a hard brexit

damm the scots , rescuing the Tories in an attempt to hit the SNP

But on those figures the DUP, with 10 seats, can give the Tories their majority regardless of whether SF attends or not.

Victor

SF and DUP are going to be intolerable: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/uk-election-2017/ni-results

Leonard Hofstadter

Salmond gone:eek:!

At least staunchly pro-EU Tory Anna Soubry has held her seat!

BoatMad

captainspeed wrote: »

Salmond gone:eek:!

payback for prompting Indyref

4068ac1elhodqr

Victor wrote: »

SF and DUP are going to be intolerable: http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/uk-election-2017/ni-results

Polarisation. Just one IND seat.

BoatMad

I predicted to my Tory friends

(a) Remainers would take revenge , thats has clearly happened in the South remain strongholds

(b) traditional labour areas would not support the Tories in the privacy of the ballot box

both have been born out

what I didnt see was the scale of the SNP failure

BoatMad

Damien Rapping Hamster wrote: »

Polarisation. Just one IND seat.

its not polarisation

its a simple realisation that the " minor " parties are simply of no value

Unionists realised that the UUP was finished and a wasted vote , and the same for the SDLP

BlitzKrieg

Did Ruth Davidson accidentally outed herself as a secret independent on BBC when she just said "IF I wanted to be leader to the UK conservative party I would have run in a UK seat"


or did I mishear?

BoatMad

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

Did Ruth Davidson accidentally outed herself as a secret independent on BBC when she just said "IF I wanted to be leader to the UK conservative party I would have run in a UK seat"


or did I mishear?

she's a good speaker

Peregrinus

BoatMad wrote: »

its not polarisation

its a simple realisation that the " minor " parties are simply of no value

Unionists realised that the UUP was finished and a wasted vote , and the same for the SDLP

But both the minor parties used to be the major parties on their respective sides of the national question.

And the process by which they transitioned to being the minor parties, and now to being the even-more-minor parties, is basically one of polarisation. Unionist voters have switched to the harder Unionist party; nationalist voters to the harder nationalist party.

BoatMad

Peregrinus wrote: »

But both the minor parties used to be the major parties on their respective sides of the national question.

And the process by which they transitioned to being the minor parties, and now to being the even-more-minor parties, is basically one of polarisation. Unionist voters have switched to the harder Unionist party; nationalist voters to the harder nationalist party.

I dont agree

all you are seeing is a realisation that the smaller parties are now so ineffectual as to be irrelevant

( and simply now are vote splitters )

Peregrinus

BoatMad wrote: »

I dont agree

all you are seeing is a realisation that the smaller parties are now so ineffectual as to be irrelevant

( and simply now are vote splitters )

You miss my point. Why are they the "smaller parties"? They didn't used to be.

BoatMad

Peregrinus wrote: »

You miss my point. Why are they the "smaller parties"? They didn't used to be.

while SF was closely associated with a military campaign , it only appealed to a section of the nationalist community

As it distances itself and as it has demonstrated that its a moderate centrist party when in Government , it has appealed to more and more moderate nationalists

As a result this has galvanised the Unionist population to consolidate behind the DUP, realising that a vote for a UUP merely splits the unionist vote

Its a simple " evolution " of the political system , i.e. a conventional two party system , ( as has been borne out in England and Wales )

paulie21

Amber Rudd holds after recount

BoatMad

looking at the result you can make two comments

(a) remainers took their vengeance in England

(b) Scotlands unionists overrode their Brexit issues to counter Indyref2

I think however the Brexit vengeance vote will not stay with Labour

Peregrinus

BoatMad wrote: »

looking at the result you can make two comments

(a) remainers took their vengeance in England

(b) Scotlands unionists overrode their Brexit issues to counter Indyref2

I think however the Brexit vengeance vote will not stay with Labour

Mmm. I dunno.

One thing that this election has refuted is the notion that Corbyn is unelectable. This has been a truism in much of the British media and in much of the parliamentary Labour party, but I've never seen it myself. (FWIW, I think I'd be slow to vote for him myself, but I never saw him as being off the scale of politically plausible figures.) And I think what has emerged over the course of this campaign is that the "Corbyn is unelectable" impression is largely created by people who want it to be so assuring one another (and the rest of us) that it is so, and believing one another.

I also don't see this election being determined by a Brexit vengeance vote. For us, outside Britain, Brexit is the big factor, but I suspect within Britain that's not so. They've been there, they've done Brexit, they may not like the result but they are heartily sick of the subject. And those still steamed up over Brexit and allowing their votes to be determined by it wouldn't, to my mind, vote Labour, since in fact Labour accepts Brexit and is committed to implementing it. If you really were a vengeful remainer registering a punitive vote, wouldn't you vote for a pro-European party? The Lib Dems would be the obvious choice, but it hasn't happened.

If there's a vengeance vote here it may not be Brexit vengeance so much as austerity vengeance. They've had seven year of it, they're pretty fed up, and I think it's telling that of all May's mis-steps during the campaign the one that seems to have attracted most angry blowback is the social care/"dementia tax" stuff-up. If that's the kind of thing that riles you up, a vote for Labour makes sense, and I see no reason why those votes should slip away from Labour again.

Dyr

Peregrinus wrote: »

But both the minor parties used to be the major parties on their respective sides of the national question.

And the process by which they transitioned to being the minor parties, and now to being the even-more-minor parties, is basically one of polarisation. Unionist voters have switched to the harder Unionist party; nationalist voters to the harder nationalist party.

It's not polarization its a changing of the guard, you had the SDLP and the UUP as the major parties. You now have a whole new generation coming through who don't even consider them relevant

The unionist parties consistently came to agreements to nudge out nationalists, the SDLP refused to do likewise and would rather come to informal agreements with unionists than do "sectarian" deals

They eventuality cooked their own goose with nationalists voters. Was funny to see Durkins bitter gum flapping about funds when his real problem was he ran out of unionists voters to save him

Dyr

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mmm. I dunno.

One thing that this election has refuted is the notion that Corbyn is unelectable. This has been a truism in much of the British media and in much of the parliamentary Labour party, but I've never seen it myself. (FWIW, I think I'd be slow to vote for him myself, but I never saw him as being off the scale of politically plausible figures.) And I think what has emerged over the course of this campaign is that the "Corbyn is unelectable" impression is largely created by people who want it to be so assuring one another (and the rest of us) that it is so, and believing one another.

What was funny was to see the Blairites tonight, like Campell, Beckett and the bould Umma. You'd think they'd be buoyant at such an amazing turnaround but you could tell they were hoping that their own party would be gutted just so they could shaft Corbyn. With friends like that...

BlitzKrieg

6 more seats and the tories are back with DUP support.

If they dont get 6 seats out of 23 remaining seats then they'll need more then the DUP.

BlitzKrieg

And there they go. 309

They can form a government with DUP support (unless Sinn Fein decide to show up)

bobbyss

Anybody know how the poll can come out so quickly and quite accurately? How are votes counted in British election?

Godot.

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

And there they go. 309

They can form a government with DUP support (unless Sinn Fein decide to show up)

Jezza is good mates with the SF leadership apparently

But nah, it would never happen though.

Peregrinus

bobbyss wrote: »

Anybody know how the poll can come out so quickly and quite accurately? How are votes counted in British election?

They're counted by hand.

But, because of the absurdly simplistic voting system, they can be counted much more quickly than in Ireland.

BlitzKrieg

Godot. wrote: »

Jezza is good mates with the SF leadership apparently

But nah, it would never happen though.

SF have already ruled that out from their end.

Dyr

Peregrinus wrote: »

They're counted by hand.

But, because of the absurdly simplistic voting system, they can be counted much more quickly than in Ireland.

They dont even have oul lads in caps watching the counts and tallying away,

I don't know how they can call that a democracy

Peregrinus

Bambi wrote: »

They dont even have oul lads in caps watching the counts and tallying away,

I don't know how they can call that a democracy

They don't need tallymen. In the majority of UK constituencies, the election count is irrelevant; it is a given that the Tory candidate, or the Labour candidate, will win. If you want to be the MP for one of these seats, the challenge is not to be elected; but to be nominated by the party in whose gift the seat effectively is. And the MPs who represent those seats, unsurprisingly, are those who are most skilled at obtaining party nominations.

The battle is effectively over, therefore, as soon as the party concerned has completed it's nomination process. Everything after that is effectively ritual. No tallymen will turn up to the count because nobody is interested in a box-by-box or station-by-station breakdown of the vote, and nobody cares about the risk of counting error - no conceivable counting error can change the outcome of the election.

Ben Gadot

Peregrinus wrote: »

Mmm. I dunno.

One thing that this election has refuted is the notion that Corbyn is unelectable. This has been a truism in much of the British media and in much of the parliamentary Labour party, but I've never seen it myself. (FWIW, I think I'd be slow to vote for him myself, but I never saw him as being off the scale of politically plausible figures.) And I think what has emerged over the course of this campaign is that the "Corbyn is unelectable" impression is largely created by people who want it to be so assuring one another (and the rest of us) that it is so, and believing one another.

I also don't see this election being determined by a Brexit vengeance vote. For us, outside Britain, Brexit is the big factor, but I suspect within Britain that's not so. They've been there, they've done Brexit, they may not like the result but they are heartily sick of the subject. And those still steamed up over Brexit and allowing their votes to be determined by it wouldn't, to my mind, vote Labour, since in fact Labour accepts Brexit and is committed to implementing it. If you really were a vengeful remainer registering a punitive vote, wouldn't you vote for a pro-European party? The Lib Dems would be the obvious choice, but it hasn't happened.

If there's a vengeance vote here it may not be Brexit vengeance so much as austerity vengeance. They've had seven year of it, they're pretty fed up, and I think it's telling that of all May's mis-steps during the campaign the one that seems to have attracted most angry blowback is the social care/"dementia tax" stuff-up. If that's the kind of thing that riles you up, a vote for Labour makes sense, and I see no reason why those votes should slip away from Labour again.

Unelectable is one of the great spoof/spin terms of politics. At the end of the day all it does is reveal the agenda of the person using it. Case in point, Theresa May's increasingly desperate and cringeworthy description of Corbyn as such.

R00ster

SNP hold off Lib Dems in North East Fife by TWO votes after 3rd recount! :eek:

spiralism

To be honest, the Tories getting back in with the DUP is worse than them getting a simple majority. Completely negates their bad performance in the stormont election for one, direct rule imposition would be basically giving them the keys. This won't be good for the North