2017 UK General Election - 8th June

Peregrinus

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

And there they go. 309

They can form a government with DUP support (unless Sinn Fein decide to show up)

No, not quite. There are 650 seats at Westminister. If Sinn Fein don't turn up, that makes 643. A majority of 643 seats requires at least 322. 309 Tories plus 10 DUP is still three seats short of a majority.

namloc1980

Serious blow for the SNP in Scotland. Losing 12 seats to the Tories is embarrassing on a brutal night for them. Hard to see a mandate for indyref2 out of this result.

Hande hoche!

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, not quite. There are 650 seats at Westminister. If Sinn Fein don't turn up, that makes 643. A majority of 643 seats requires at least 322. 309 Tories plus 10 DUP is still three seats short of a majority.

313 seats for the Tories at the moment.

solodeogloria

namloc1980 wrote: »

Serious blow for the SNP in Scotland. Losing 12 seats to the Tories is embarrassing on a brutal night for them. Hard to see a mandate for indyref2 out of this result.

Good morning,

It's a huge cockup of an election.

The Tories do not have a sufficient mandate for their leadership into the negotiations.

The DUP in Government means almost certainly that they will have the role of Northern Ireland Secretary. This is a disaster.

The SNP have no mandate to push on with independence. They need to focus on the issues in Holyrood.

On the casualties that are inevitable in elections. I was also sad to see Nick Clegg lose Sheffield Hallam. Even if I disagree with him he's someone who deserves a great deal of respect.

Another Tory leadership contest in days of negotiations.

Wow. Could it get any worse?

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

Peregrinus

Hande hoche! wrote: »

313 seats for the Tories at the moment.

Oh, I think when the dust settles the Tories and the DUP will have a theoretical majority. I just think Blitzkreig called it a bit soon.

It puts the DUP in a powerful but tricky position. On the one hand, they're a pro-Brexit party. On the other hand, they know that's not a popular position in NI, which voted "Remain". On the third hand, practically all commentators identlfy Brexit as harmful to NI, in economic terms. If they use their position at Westminster to push for a softer Brexit (at least as far as NI is concerned) that means facilitating and maintaning links with the Republic; their voter base won't like that (and it wouldn't be their instinct). But if they don't, then they'll get blamed when, inevitably, NI suffers economically under Brexit.

So, if you were the DUP, what exactly would you be demanding from the Tories as the price of your support?

Nody

Peregrinus wrote: »

So, if you were the DUP, what exactly would you be demanding from the Tories as the price of your support?

A boat load of extra money for the next 10 years in terms of investments etc. to hold up the economy and generate temporary work.

BlitzKrieg

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, not quite. There are 650 seats at Westminister. If Sinn Fein don't turn up, that makes 643. A majority of 643 seats requires at least 322. 309 Tories plus 10 DUP is still three seats short of a majority.

The tories needed 326 to hold a majority

minus 7 for sinn fein

leaves 319

minus 10 for DUP

leaves 309

namloc1980

Peregrinus wrote: »

No, not quite. There are 650 seats at Westminister. If Sinn Fein don't turn up, that makes 643. A majority of 643 seats requires at least 322. 309 Tories plus 10 DUP is still three seats short of a majority.

With a handful to be declared Tories look like 318/319. DUP will prop then up. Disaster for Ireland and if they get the NI Secretary then we're in for ongoing political turmoil.

First Up

spiralism wrote:

To be honest, the Tories getting back in with the DUP is worse than them getting a simple majority. Completely negates their bad performance in the stormont election for one, direct rule imposition would be basically giving them the keys. This won't be good for the North

If the DUP are propping up a Tory government, it pretty well rules out free movement on the island of Ireland. The DUP will not agree to a virtual EU frontier between NI and Britain so there has to be a border.

Its close to the worst possible outcome. The UK goes into Brexit in disarray - a laughing stock. The only positive for Ireland is that this mess will increase the chances of an investment and capital flight in our direction.

solodeogloria

Good morning,

Sarah Olney has lost Richmond Park on a 0.1% margin to Zac Goldsmith.

I was actually expecting her to keep that one!

Much thanks,
solodeogloria

namloc1980

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

The tories needed 326 to hold a majority

minus 7 for sinn fein

leaves 319

minus 10 for DUP

leaves 309

A majority is half plus 1 (rounded up) of the seats in Parliament. 643 / 2 = 322.

BlitzKrieg

namloc1980 wrote: »

A majority is half plus 1 (rounded up) of the seats in Parliament. 643 / 2 = 322.

The issue here is you are deducting the sinn fein seats before dividing in half

half of 643 = 322

I'm deducting the sinn fein seats after dividing in half

half of 650 = 326

then I'm deducting the sinn fein seats.

leading to 319

lawred2

Project Mayhem was a success.

Delighted for the cocky Tories. Thought it was a sure thing.

namloc1980

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

The issue here is you are deducting the sinn fein seats before dividing in half

half of 643 = 322

I'm deducting the sinn fein seats after dividing in half

half of 650 = 326

then I'm deducting the sinn fein seats.

leading to 319

Yeah but your way is wrong. Your way you are saying 319 is enough but with 643 (excl SF) total in Parliament leaves 324 other seats so clearly 319 is NOT a majority.

lawred2

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

The issue here is you are deducting the sinn fein seats before dividing in half

half of 643 = 322

I'm deducting the sinn fein seats after dividing in half

half of 650 = 326

then I'm deducting the sinn fein seats.

leading to 319

That doesn't make sense though. The SF seats need to be deducted first.

A Dub in Glasgo

Bizarre result in Scotland, SNP still got more than 50% of the seats and 'won' the election for Scottish seats but looking at the vote share, it would appear that more SNP voters switched to Tory than to Labour

namloc1980

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Bizarre result in Scotland, SNP still got more than 50% of the seats and 'won' the election for Scottish seats but looking at the vote share, it would appear that more SNP voters switched to Tory than to Labour

But for the SNP meltdown, it would have been a complete disaster for the Tories.

Peregrinus

BlitzKrieg wrote: »

The tories needed 326 to hold a majority

minus 7 for sinn fein

leaves 319

minus 10 for DUP

leaves 309

No. The Tories need 326 for a majority if there are 650 MPs voting, because 326 is the lowest number which is still more than half of 650. That's how you calculate majorities.

If SF don't show up, there are 343 voting MPs. A majority of 343 - the smallest number which is more than half of 643 - is 622.

Your mistake is in subtracting Sinn Fein's seats from the number of votes the Tory government would need. If you think about it, this must be mistake; you can never count Sinn Fein votes as votes that a Tory government might need, since no Tory government would get SF votes.

You should be subtracting SF votes from the total number of votes in the House of Commons, and then calculating a majority of whatever is left.

First Up

Peregrinus wrote:

A majority of 343 - the smallest number which is more than half of 643 - is 622.

I think you mean 322.

Mancomb Seepgood

May won't be resigning according to the BBC.We'll see what the rest of her party have to say about that.

Peregrinus

First Up wrote: »

I think you mean 322.

[Peregrinus slaps own head]
Yes, I do.

listermint

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Bizarre result in Scotland, SNP still got more than 50% of the seats and 'won' the election for Scottish seats but looking at the vote share, it would appear that more SNP voters switched to Tory than to Labour

Is it bizarre,?

It's very evident the Scottish electorate is easily led by the media the same thing happened with the independence vote , only strong local campaigning that time won a better portion of the vote.

But they appear to really digest what the media are putting out . Very pro Tory and scaring people off the Labour party.

R00ster

Can the DUP demand that they get Secretary of State for NI? Does it have to be a Non-NI MP?

Peregrinus

R00ster wrote: »

Can the DUP demand that they get Secretary of State for NI? Does it have to be a Non-NI MP?

There's no legal requirement that it be a non-NI MP, but it's pretty well unthinkable that it wouldn't be. The whole basis of the GFA and the use of direct rule as the default when the NI institutions are deadlocked or are otherwise not functioning would be overturned if the NI Secretary came from one of the NI political parties.

A Dub in Glasgo

listermint wrote: »

Is it bizarre,?

It's very evident the Scottish electorate is easily led by the media the same thing happened with the independence vote , only strong local campaigning that time won a better portion of the vote.

But they appear to really digest what the media are putting out . Very pro Tory and scaring people off the Labour party.

On reflection, I think a lot of the left wing voters that voted SNP from Labour last time went back to Labour once Corbyn began to demonstrate his credibility and at the same time the staunch unionist & Blairite voters moved from Labour to the Tories. Very hard to show but I do not think it is a simple case of SNP went down by 13% and the Tories went up by 13% therefore the Tories took the SNP votes

R00ster

I see, makes sense. The last SOS for Wales was a Welsh conservative mp, but obviously NI is different. Labour and the conservatives don't run candidates in NI either. I wonder if they'll at least ask for SOS

R00ster

SNP mp on the beeb reckons the DUP/Combo wont have a majority, mustn't know that about Sinn F?in's abstensionism. Seems to think that labour/libe dems/snp can form a minority government.

Peregrinus

R00ster wrote: »

I see, makes sense. The last SOS for Wales was a Welsh conservative mp, but obviously NI is different. Labour and the conservatives don't run candidates in NI either. I wonder if they'll at least ask for SOS

I doubt it. They have more political leverage at Westminster than they have ever had before or, if we're honest, than they are likely to have again for a very long time. The won't want to squander it by being seen to make unrealistic and improbable demands.

The UK doesn't often have minority or coalition governments, but it has happened in the past. There is no case in which a party contributing only 10 votes to support a minority/coalition government has been able to demand a cabinet post in return, and if the DUP were to demand not only a cabinet post, but one the grant of which would probably bring about the collapse of the NI settlement, they'd be painting themselves as totally detached from reality and completely lacking in political awareness to an almost Trumpish degree. Basically, they'd be signalling that they were not a party with which you could do business, which is pretty much the opposite of the signal that you want to send in a situation like this.

Enzokk

solodeogloria wrote: »

On the casualties that are inevitable in elections. I was also sad to see Nick Clegg lose Sheffield Hallam. Even if I disagree with him he's someone who deserves a great deal of respect.

Another Tory leadership contest in days of negotiations.

Wow. Could it get any worse?

Nick Clegg made his own noose when he u-turned on the university fees and went in government and allowed the severe austerity measures by the previous government. There is no need to feel sad for him, he got what he deserved.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I think a lot of the left wing voters that voted SNP from Labour last time went back to Labour once Corbyn began to demonstrate his credibility and at the same time the staunch unionist & Blairite voters moved from Labour to the Tories. Very hard to show but I do not think it is a simple case of SNP went down by 13% and the Tories went up by 13% therefore the Tories took the SNP votes

Maybe people in Scotland just isn't that progressive that people would like to believe? I think people probably got a little carried away with the prospect of independence and once the dust settled and with clear thinking the realization that going independent would have hurt more than they hoped. This aligned with Ruth Davidson looking good on the campaign trail probably led to the surge in Conservative votes.

But now the Scottish Conservatives are aligned once again with the English Conservatives, if Brexit looks like it will hurt I expect most of those MPs to lose their seats again in the next election as they actually have the power to stop that now. Their votes can kill government legislation so it will be interesting to see how it is going.

The press will absolutely slaughter the SNP now, and they are, but there was no way they could have repeated the feat, but now is the time to get on with Scotland and running it properly. That way you can convince people that you will be ready for independence, not by pointing at the Conservatives and lamenting how bad they are, but by showing how well you would do as an independent government.

Cazale

Might be time for an extraordinary Sinn Fein Ard Fheis.