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Trading out - timing the top.

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  • 22-04-2017 9:09am
    #1
    Feckofff
    Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭


    I will have to sell my current house at some stage in the next 5 years. Ideally I would like to get out somewhere near the top (wouldn't we all :))

    What indicators would people use to try and decide when to sell?
    Employment, housing stock levels, interest rates, rents, average wages etc

    I see 3 years of double digit growth in the next 5 years but maybe it is best to sell when the outlook is good? And before there is more government interference!


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    #2
    Samuel T. Cogley
    Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    Supply.

    To clarify for my hypnotic friend below :pac: - bugger looking at anything else - look at supply. If supply is coming on stream you know you're near the top. If lots of supply is there you're at the top.


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    #3
    hungry hypno toad
    Closed Accounts Posts: 646 ✭✭✭hungry hypno toad


    Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »
    Supply.

    And Demand.


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    #4
    Feckofff
    Registered Users Posts: 116 ✭✭Feckofff


    Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »
    Supply.

    To clarify for my hypnotic friend below :pac: - bugger looking at anything else - look at supply. If supply is coming on stream you know you're near the top. If lots of supply is there you're at the top.

    Supply in general or supply similar to what I own. The reason I ask is the supply in my area for new builds is either 3/4 bed houses or much more expensive apartments. I don't see anyone building a 2 bed apt as cheap as mine (think bottom of the barrel stuff). The biggest supply I see is landlords getting out, which has already happening but hasn't hit prices. Yields would be 6-7% and in a high demand area.


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    #5
    Samuel T. Cogley
    Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    Supply generally - as soon as the tap is turned on something has changed. Prices generally will fall.

    Of course you need to use a crystal ball to think what else might happen, Brexit could go either way, WWIII could break out. Bono could cause the world to decide that Ireland should be blockaded, but it's all fiddling around the edges IMHO. The biggest factor out there is supply at the moment. LL's getting out is a few properties a week. I'm talking massive developments of hundreds of units. They're going to be better at predicting the top that we'll ever be.


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