Off Topic Chat. (MOD NOTE post# 3949 and post#5279)

Mellor

Cass wrote: »

We were told last year we cannot get back to normal until we have a vaccine.

I think the implication was that when we have a vaccine and people and vaccinated.
It’s not really useful if people don’t take it.

IOW if the vaccinations do not help return us to normality and we have to keep going as we are (masks, distancing, travel limitations, free movement, etc) then there is no "end point" where it can be said we can return to normal life. That is depressing.

People who who are initially vaccinated will still need to take measures to avoid infecting other not yet vaccinated.
There’s would be no need to do that if everyone was vaccinated, as there would be nobody to get full blown Covid. The end point is close to full immunity in the community.
Or probably much sooner if community transmission disappears.

Mellor

Cass wrote: »

Its this bit, right here. We live with the flu every year. Depending on country/population thousands or tens of thousands die from it or a secondary illness and because of the flu. Did we ever shut a country down for the flu?

Flu kills 30k in the US every year.
They are on track for half a million in 12 months of Covid.
I haven’t seen Irish glue numbers, but I imagine it’s a similar order of magnitude.

Again i'm not getting into conspiracy theories here. This is not about that. Every government including our own has said the same thing you have said. We have to live with it. However with the flu now mysteriously eliminated and the country racking up billions of debt how can we continue to go on like this for another year or possibly longer?

I’m not surprised flu/colds are way down. People are wearing masks, distancing, sanitising. Washing their hands, some lads for the first time :pac:

Feisar

Cass wrote: »

I'm only arguing this for the sake of argument.

They won't shut down airports because they say it violates EU free movement, but "forbid" us from going on holiday or more importantly traveling more than 5km from our homes. They say we need a vaccine before we can return to normal but now one is here they say we will continue with all the restrictions.

I appreciate things change as does the advice on how to combat it, but the government is saying on one hand we have to, basically, take away your rights to protect you, while on the other hand say/allow others things in the interest of EU law.

I'm not really saying this right and finding it hard to write what i mean.

They are walking the line between bankrupting the country and allowing personal liberties (although i fail to see how being allowed right is a right), but are it wrong on both ends.

I'm only chewing the fat on the topic, not putting up an argument. What's annoying me is construction still open, well the big foreign direct investment. Essential my hole, gotta keep the big corporates happy. I work in construction so I should be happy enough but on a personnel level it's frustrating.

Cass

Mellor wrote: »

Flu kills 30k in the US every year.

Up to 61,000 some years since 2010.

They are on track for half a million in 12 months of Covid.
I haven’t seen Irish glue numbers, but I imagine it’s a similar order of magnitude.

ITs in the 3,300 mark i believe.

This is also what i was referring to above. The WHO have said the numbers are not reliable and last year the HPSC revise the numbers down from 2,700 to 1,678. If the numbers since are still not reliable due to the testing then how do we know the true figures.

I’m not surprised flu/colds are way down.

They're not way down, they're none existent. HSE.HPSC figures show no cold or flu cases reported by GPs, reported by hospitals, or deaths recorded since August of last year.

That simply cannot happen. A virus does not disappear.

Don't get me wrong i'm not dismissing people that have died from the flu but pointing out that all deaths from August are marked as covid. Is there any chance the deaths have ben incorrectly recorded? Well according to the WHO, yes.

Again that does not somehow negate the seriousness of covid but if numbers are artificially high due to poor testing, poor recording, incorrect recording, etc. then the actions being taken with regard to covid need to be reexamined for not only effectiveness but necessity.

People are wearing masks, distancing, sanitising. Washing their hands, some lads for the first time :pac:

The wash your hands thing still amazes me. Who had to be told to do this? Seriously?

Cass

Feisar wrote: »

I'm only chewing the fat on the topic, not putting up an argument..

Just a turn of phrase, not actually an argument.

Cass

Cass wrote: »

By the way anyone seen the goings on with Gamestop and wall street.

Now, reported on SKY news, they're doing it with Silver.

One would be a political statement, more than that is just taking the piss.

BattleCorp

Cass wrote: »

The wash your hands thing still amazes me. Who had to be told to do this? Seriously?

How naive you are. Lots of dirty fcukers out there.

Here's my take on COVID-19.

It's worse than the flu. Much worse. That's why we have to take extraordinary measures (masks/lockdown etc). I know some people in their 50's who have died from it and they weren't sickly creatures either. Some of them had mild underlying issues, same as a lot of people in their 50's would have but nothing that would normally kill them, even if they caught the flu.

Yes, the extraordinary measures are p1ssing us all off and killing the economy. But I'll recover from being p1ssed off and the economy will eventually recover from the debilitating effects of the lockdown. But what won't recover is someone who dies from the virus. We can restart an economy, we can't restart a dead body.

So, even though I'm fed up to the back teeth with all this, things will eventually return to some sort of normality. COVID-19 isn't going away any time soon but with the vaccines and improved methods of treating it, it should become a manageable virus in the next year or so.

alan0387

Mellor wrote: »

I think the implication was that when we have a vaccine and people and vaccinated.
It’s not really useful if people don’t take it.


People who who are initially vaccinated will still need to take measures to avoid infecting other not yet vaccinated.
There’s would be no need to do that if everyone was vaccinated, as there would be nobody to get full blown Covid. The end point is close to full immunity in the community.
Or probably much sooner if community transmission disappears.

This is the current argument about anti-vaxxers and not giving their children the recommended vaccines at the infant stages. The various vaccines given to children prevent polio tb measles mumps rubella amongst others.

There has been a spike in tb amongst children in recent years, although I don't have a link to current numbers and research, has been linked to unvaccinated children. The schools insist now on records of vaccination because of a higher number of children to forgein born parents, in our schools, who may or may not have gotten vaccinations due to personal, religious or cultural differences. While it CAN be a risk to a vaccinated child, the biggest issue is a child carrying one of the above viruses and giving it to an unvaccinated child. There was a report of the first case of rubella I believe, in the country in many many years some time not long ago.

I'm not an anti-vaxxer. However I don't avail of the free flu jab offered by work. I have a staunch fear of needles. I may stab myself with picks and screwdrivers in work daily, but the thought of an injection make me weak at the knees. But my wife has told me flat out I will be taking this jab when available.

Full disclosure, my wife is a nurse, specialised in head and neck oncology (specifically cancers, stomas, aneurysms etc) but has been on career break since our son was diagnosed with special needs. I trust her with all things medical, completely and 100%. Just the same way she entrusts the car to me since its my profession.

So to round that out, until the vast majority of the country is vaccinated, ie herd immunity, everyone still poses a potential risk to each other. And as stated in a previous post (can't remember who) it won't eradicate the virus, but will prevent a full infection and reduce hospitalizations.

I'm fortunate enough to be still working full time, but the overboard constant cleaning and disinfecting of tools and workstations becoming tiresome.

Cass

BattleCorp wrote: »

How naive you are. Lots of dirty fcukers out there.

Glad i wasn't a hand shaker or hugger before all this now that i know.

It's worse than the flu. Much worse.

I'm sorry to sound like a broken record but no one, and its not a dig, has ever been able to answer some basic questions for me that i've mentioned/repeated above.

How much worse?

Flu accounts for between 300 to 1000 deaths per year in Ireland since 2009. That is with a flu "jab" which according to HPSC was administered to over 80% of those treated/affected.

Nursing home and care home deaths average 750 to nearly 900 in the last five years. The HSE was actually investigating the alarmingly high number of deaths when covid hit. Now that is forgotten about.

Death rates and infection rates have been amended down in the last 12 months with a notice from the WHO (January 20th, 2021) to say the current figures may also be wrong.

In short we don't have proper numbers and the numbers we do have are, according to the Authorities, unreliable.

I know some people in their 50's who have died from it and they weren't sickly creatures either. Some of them had mild underlying issues, same as a lot of people in their 50's would have but nothing that would normally kill them, even if they caught the flu.

My Uncle and Aunt would be the in the highest risk category. Both are 80, both have multiple underlying conditions including heart, respiratory, cancer and a host of other ailments. Both tested positive and both have come out the other side unaffected.

Now i have to stress AGAIN, i'm not denying it exists nor am i denying it can cause death. To be honest its a morbid topic and "explaining away" deaths is not something i'm trying to do.

............ the economy will eventually recover from the debilitating effects of the lockdown.

How?

We have no begun to pay back the crippling debt from the 2008 crash and have already amassed nearly €25 billion in additional debt.

But what won't recover is someone who dies from the virus. We can restart an economy, we can't restart a dead body.

A noble sentiment, and forgive my callous attitude, but deaths are occurring from other factors that should not be happening because of the way this lockdown is happening. My Uncle whom i referenced above, had a cancer related operation cancelled because, and i quote the most pertinent line in the letter he got "decided not to proceed with a procedure deemed non essential".

So, even though I'm fed up to the back teeth with all this, things will eventually return to some sort of normality. COVID-19 isn't going away any time soon but with the vaccines and improved methods of treating it, it should become a manageable virus in the next year or so.

I'm not even discussing this on a financial aspect only.

• Health wise thousands are suffering from conditions that should be treated but are not being. I have family that are directly effected by this.
• Look at education. The leaving cert and junior cert were cancelled last year and already this year the same is being floated, in January.
• Day cares are stopped so parents are forced to stay at home meaning the possible loss of a job that were unaffected by lockdowns. More unemployment and its not free money, someone has to pay it.
• We see adverts on TV about the rise in domestic abuse and other factors caused by people being trapped in circumstances they cannot escape.
• Government/social programs being suspended or closed meaning the people that rely on those services cannot access them.
• Mortgage/rent moratoriums were lifted last October so people have to pay their rent or mortgage with more people still not working because of restrictions. That'll lead to a rise in an already out of control number of homeless.

I don't have all the answers, in fact i don't have any answers. The full effect of the lockdowns won't be felt for some time, quite possibly years to come, as business stay closed permanently, and other find there is no job to return to.

I'm not advocating for ignoring caution and going about our lives, but Ireland has consistently ranked as one of the worse countries with the given figures per head capita which only serves to highlight the failings of he lockdowns. So perhaps it's time to try something else?

Cass

Ona somewhat lighter note.

There is a viral video about chinese people walking funny after getting an anal swab for covid. The video is a fake but from what i've found the anal swab is a real thing. Officials say it is a better way to test for covid.

I just then imagined the drive-thru testing facilities that swab for covid and thought about what the testers will see:

BattleCorp

Cass wrote: »

I'm not advocating for ignoring caution and going about our lives, but Ireland has consistently ranked as one of the worse countries with the given figures per head capita which only serves to highlight the failings of he lockdowns.

Most of the points you raised I don't know the answer to but I actually know the answer to this one. Dumb fcuk Joe Public doesn't do what he/she is told to do during lockdown, that's why our numbers are so high.

Lockdown works if people 'lock down'. Examples of people not doing as they are instructed.......

400 people near me at a funeral of someone who died of COVID, some of them were awaiting the result of a test which later proved positive. I wonder how many cases that led to?

People passing around a vodka bottle and swigging out of it on New Year's eve in a house near me.

I saw 6 young people getting out of a car the other day, none live together and none of them had masks on.

95% of the population not wearing a mask properly or washing their hands adequately or correctly.

I was in an office a few weeks ago for work reasons and only one employee is allowed to use that office. Yet, when the employee was out of the office, I saw others coming in and using their telephone. Where's the hygiene there. It's a recipe for disaster.

I could sit and type all day but I'm getting bored but it's very rare not to see gobsh1tes not socially distancing or following the other public health guidelines when you do venture from your house.

But back to the real world, I know it's not possible to have a full lock down, but people who don't follow public health guidelines are ensuring that the suffering goes on longer than necessary.

Cass

BattleCorp wrote: »

Lockdown works if people 'lock down'. ...

Can't argue with that.

I don't hassle people that don't abide fully. I don't lose it if someone is standing too close and frankly i don't touch much when i'm out even before the lockdown. Being a slight germaphobe has its advantages.

I do find myself rolling my eyes more frequently when i see people, for example, wearing a mask under the nose (i mean either put in on properly o don't wear it at all) which has me conflicted because at the start of this i was all "my rights this" and "no one will tell me where i can and can't go". I never got to the Gemma Doherty levels of Karen-ness like hassling Gardaí. Those poor feckers are forced to be on the "frontline" and giving them an ear full is the most redundant act i've ever seen and heard about.

Then on the other hand i know its serious enough and with vulnerable parents that i'm care giver for i have to be careful if not for my sake, for theirs. Hence my compliance with masks, washing hands, interactions with people outside the household, abiding by the travel restrictions, etc.

BattleCorp

Cass wrote: »

I never got to the Gemma Doherty levels of Karen-ness like hassling Gardaí.

Those poor feckers are forced to be on the "frontline" and giving them an ear full is the most redundant act i've ever seen and heard about.

I feel very sorry for the Gardai who have to deal with idiots like Gemma O'Doherty and Ben Gilroy and their accompanying rabble. The urge to take out the batton and start swinging and only stop once exhaustion sets in must be unreal.

I was watching one protest in the city centre a while ago and my imagination ran away with me. I pictured a JCB driving them all into the Liffey. :D:D

civdef

Did we ever shut a country down for the flu

1918-1919. There are a lot of parallels.

The wash your hands thing still amazes me. Who had to be told to do this? Seriously?

You must leave a very sheltered life!

As regards the impact of COVID vs flu, chat to a paramedic or a nurse or doctor. The like of this hasn't been seen in modern times. Since 1918-1919 really, and at least this time we had better supportive care options.

but Ireland has consistently ranked as one of the worse countries with the given figures per head capita which only serves to highlight the failings of he lockdowns. So perhaps it's time to try something else?

We were actually doing really well compared to other places till we relaxed our restrictions!


What baffles me about the focus on "personal rights" relating to COVID is people have forgotten about the "personal responsibilities" part of the deal.

One person's rights end where another's begin.

I also love to imagine how the beacons of personal liberty we have now would have handled getting conscripted and chucked into a trench 100 years ago or drafted into a paddy field 50 years ago. People have got too comfortable in forgetting members of a society have to step up and do their bit sometimes. This generation is being asked to wear a mask instead of stop bullets, and that't too much for many to handle.

Grizzly 45

Cass wrote: »

Ona somewhat lighter note.

There is a viral video about chinese people walking funny after getting an anal swab for covid. The video is a fake but from what i've found the anal swab is a real thing. Officials say it is a better way to test for covid.

I just then imagined the drive-thru testing facilities that swab for covid and thought about what the testers will see:

Leo Vardkar will be very happy at that news then. He'll be a regular daily customer,just to make sure,to be sure,to be sure.:eek::D

Munsterlad102

Grizzly 45 wrote: »

Leo Vardkar will be very happy at that news then. He'll be a regular daily customer,just to make sure,to be sure,to be sure.:eek::D

Maybe that's why he became a doctor, so he can give it and recieve it:D:D:D

Grizzly 45

BattleCorp wrote: »

I feel very sorry for the Gardai who have to deal with idiots like Gemma O'Doherty and Ben Gilroy and their accompanying rabble. The urge to take out the batton and start swinging and only stop once exhaustion sets in must be unreal.

I was watching one protest in the city centre a while ago and my imagination ran away with me. I pictured a JCB driving them all into the Liffey. :D:D

Don't let your imagination run too riot with you, as those kinds of fantasies lead to all sorts of nasty places, like Gulags, and one-way cattle car trips to mass shower facilities.:p
Yes, she might be as mad as a bag of hammers, [which she is]. But she still has a right to express it. Same as those other loopers screaming BLM slogans outside Dublin Garda stations.
Same as the antis and Sabs.I find their views 100 idiotic and repugnant,but I'll fight anyone to the death for their right to express it. Deplatforming or cancelling out a dissenting opinion is just making it stronger. As Germany is finding out with resurgent Neo-Nazi parties.

The solution to these people is MORE free speech, so you can show them up for their ridiculousness and non-arguements and ideals. Not by cancelling or de-platforming them because you feel "offended "by mere words.:rolleyes:
If they are not doing anything illegal or burning , looting or murdering or attacking Guards or others...What harm are they doing?

Grizzly 45

Munsterlad102 wrote: »

Maybe that's why he became a doctor, so he can give it and recieve it:D:D:D

As the proctologist said to his patient
"So long as you don't feel both my hands on your shoulders, We'll be good!":eek::eek:

Cass

civdef wrote: »

1918-1919. There are a lot of parallels.

So never in the history of the state. Thats all you had to say.

You must leave a very sheltered life!

Ok am i getting this wrong or something. Why is it because i have good hygiene i'm being asked about a sheltered life. What sort of animals are ye all? :eek:

As regards the impact of COVID vs flu, chat to a paramedic or a nurse or doctor.

Don't know any, but i'm not blind or ignorant to the reports on the tv nor the fact that this "hit" out of nowhere instead of being something that is annual like the flu.

We were actually doing really well compared to other places till we relaxed our restrictions!

So its solely the people's fault?

I said above to Battlecorp that i won't argue that some have openly flouted the restrictions and its getting worse as time goes on and people become more fed up the lockdowns, but i refuse to allow the government line of "blame everyone bar us" to fly. That is the same nonsense they tried in the 80s asking neighbours to report other neighbours who were on welfare and might have a nice TV, or more recently when leo outright lied about the cost of welfare fraud. They are as culpable, if not moreso, than the people and to try and deflect their failings as the fault of the masses is lazy, ignorant, and frankly pathetic. I'd have more respect if they said we failed instead of jangling a set of keys in the hopes we don't notice.

What baffles me about the focus on "personal rights" relating to COVID is people have forgotten about the "personal responsibilities" part of the deal.

This should not be a surprise. The whole "we're in this together" bullsh*t went out the window last April when people bulk bought everything they did and DIDN'T need leaving the most vulnerable in society to go without. This contiued for months and i even wrote about it last year as i done my normal weekly shops and found i had to go without eggs, flours and of course toilet paper (which also baffles me as it doesn't give the sh*ts).

I also love to imagine how the beacons of personal liberty we have now would have handled getting conscripted and chucked into a trench 100 years ago or drafted into a paddy field 50 years ago. People have got too comfortable in forgetting members of a society have to step up and do their bit sometimes. This generation is being asked to wear a mask instead of stop bullets, and that't too much for many to handle.

I'm in my mid forties so "this generation" doesn't apply to me, but i get your point.

Grizzly 45

Cass wrote: »

S

This should not be a surprise. The whole "we're in this together" bullsh*t went out the window last April when people bulk bought everything they did and DIDN'T need leaving the most vulnerable in society to go without. This contiued for months and i even wrote about it last year as i done my normal weekly shops and found i had to go without eggs, flours and of course toilet paper (which also baffles me as it doesn't give the sh*ts).

Went out all the quicker too with Golfgate and RTE having a shin dig. And helped along too no doubt by Micheal heading off to Washington DC with his fruit bowl next month.

Leadership...Ireland...Novel concept.

civdef

Cass wrote: »

So never in the history of the state. Thats all you had to say.

You did ask "Did we ever shut a country down for the flu" in fairness, not this state.

So its solely the people's fault?

I think there's plenty of blame for everyone (myself included) for what happened here in December. Government could definitely have held a tougher line, but the population (myself included) had no appetite for that. Moral leadership was lacking, but so was common sense.

The one good thing about December in my view is that it has mostly shut up the sectoral whinging from the hospitality sector along the lines of "we're safe and we should be let open". At least we can all see now that was total bolllox.

I'd have more respect if they said we failed instead of jangling a set of keys in the hopes we don't notice.

Me too - that attitude would play well generally I think.

I'm in my mid forties so "this generation" doesn't apply to me, but i get your point.

Just to be clear, I'm not trying to get digs in any anyone personally - well, except those head-the-balls who reckon this is all made up.

As a society we're not conditioned for hardship any more. I honestly think people a couple of generations ago would have been better equipped to just got on with and make the best of what we are dealing with now. People today want a reason why they're special exceptions to the conditions that affect everyone else.

Mellor

Cass wrote: »

Up to 61,000 some years since 2010.

Correct. Or more accurately it was 61,000 in 2017/18 season. 12,000 in the 2011/12 season. And 35,900 average over the 2010-2020 decade.

They're not way down, they're none existent. HSE.HPSC figures show no cold or flu cases reported by GPs, reported by hospitals, or deaths recorded since August of last year.

That simply cannot happen. A virus does not disappear.

Correct, it can't just disappear. However, each year people build up immunity (through infection and vaccination) to the flu virus. Once you have it, you can't ever catch that specific flu again.
The flu comes back each year because it has mutates to a new strain.

I'm not an expert, but it seems likely to me that lockdown and other covid measures globally could severely affect the transmission and mutation rates of last years virus. It could be the case that it hasn't been able to effectively mutate.
Southern hemi sphere rates were very low during their winter.


As for how much worse. Who knows, but;

The 1000 deaths number for the flu represents the deaths with the virus fully dispersed in the community, and zero social distancing. We we acted like that with covid, we'd be looking at 10k deaths easily, maybe higher.

Mortality rates for the flu are something like 0.1-0.2%
For Covid its looks like about 2%
Covid seems to be transmitted much more easier, meaning more people will playing the 2% death lottery.
Even when people don't die, appears to be harder to shake off leaving people with respiratory issues. Where as flu recoverers are fine in a few days.

So 10-20 times worse seems to be a suit arbitary description.

The wash your hands thing still amazes me. Who had to be told to do this? Seriously?

Seriously, a lot of people.
I've often had to queue for a toilet/urinal in a public bathroom. I've never had to queue for a sink.
Especially bad in pubs and shopping centres. If you stood at the sink for 1 min is a busy bathroom, you'd see men waltz in and out. Disgusting really.

alan0387 wrote: »

This is the current argument about anti-vaxxers and not giving their children the recommended vaccines at the infant stages. The various vaccines given to children prevent polio tb measles mumps rubella amongst others.

Pretty much, More unvaccinated kids, means more mutation. And an increased chance that a vaccinated kid can catch it. There was mumps outbreak in american a few years ago catchable by vaccinated kids.
Anti-vaxers think it's only affecting their kids. But sadly not the case.

Cass

Jesus. I'm binging on The Wire. Must go to bed, but nearly finished watching season 4. Anyway.

Mellor wrote: »

Correct, it can't just disappear. However, each year people build up immunity (through infection and vaccination) to the flu virus. Once you have it, you can't ever catch that specific flu again.
The flu comes back each year because it has mutates to a new strain.

I'm not an expert, but it seems likely to me that lockdown and other covid measures globally could severely affect the transmission and mutation rates of last years virus. It could be the case that it hasn't been able to effectively mutate.
Southern hemi sphere rates were very low during their winter.

You could be right but a complete elimination of a virus, to me, is a statistical impossibility.

The 1000 deaths number for the flu represents the deaths with the virus fully dispersed in the community, and zero social distancing. We we acted like that with covid, we'd be looking at 10k deaths easily, maybe higher.

That is based on the numbers we're seeing, but the numbers cannot be trusted. That is not some "alt-right" site, but direct from the W.H.O.

Mortality rates for the flu are something like 0.1-0.2%

According to HSPC the number is between 2.5-3.5%. That is death rate as a percentage of infections.

For Covid its looks like about 2%

Going on the current numbers, 1.6%. For the year.

Covid seems to be transmitted much more easier, meaning more people will playing the 2% death lottery.

Nope. The W.H.O. states influenza has a higher viral rate and lower incubation time. From their website:

W.H.O. wrote:

The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.

So with the above and the infection/mortality rate the flu is, statistically, worse. Hence why i don't believe it just disappeared (not trying to argue the covid should not be treated seriously btw)

Even when people don't die, appears to be harder to shake off leaving people with respiratory issues. Where as flu recoverers are fine in a few days.

According to HSPC (2017/2018 report was the first i found) 233 people were left with long term respiratory issues and 197 in the ICU due to the flu. They were not fine within a few days and as a percentage of cases they represent almost 4% with issues after contracting the flu.

So 10-20 times worse seems to be a suit arbitary description.

Not by the numbers being given out. Not even close. In fact per case/death, flu is worse. That is only per year, taken over the last say ten years its way, way past covid.

I've just realised how cold and calculated that sounds. I know its not as simple as a numbers game, but at times it helps to break down the figures to help sort fact from fiction.

Seriously, a lot of people.
I've often had to queue for a toilet/urinal in a public bathroom. I've never had to queue for a sink.
Especially bad in pubs and shopping centres. If you stood at the sink for 1 min is a busy bathroom, you'd see men waltz in and out. Disgusting really.

Yeah thats why i steer clear of public toilets.

Mellor

Cass wrote: »

You could be right but a complete elimination of a virus, to me, is a statistical impossibility.

I agree it would be impossible for it to completely disappear.
However, the data doesn't say that the virus is gone. It says that infections aren't present, which isn't the same thing.
The old virus could still be everywhere, unable to infect anyone.

According to HSPC the number is between 2.5-3.5%. That is death rate as a percentage of infections.

Do you have a link to that data?
I seen HSPC numbers for deaths and hospitalisations, but not total infections.


I was basing my number on CDC data.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Average is 30m cases. And 35k deaths. Which is 0.12%
But i'm sure there are other ways to quantify the deaths.

Going on the current numbers, 1.6%. For the year.

1.7% based on deaths so far/total cases. However, that ignore than some of the current active cases (150k) are also going to die. The 1.7% can only go up.

Global numbers are 2.2% based on current total. And 3% based on resolved cases. (There's also a lot of dodgy data sets in there).

Nope. The W.H.O. states influenza has a higher viral rate and lower incubation time. From their website:


So with the above and the infection/mortality rate the flu is, statistically, worse.

That refers to speed of infection in terms of time. Not the total number of infections each causes. From the same WHO page you just quoted.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-similarities-and-differences-with-influenza

The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza.

Also cover mortality

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

So according to the WHO page, that you referenced.
Flu infection faster.
Covid infects more.
Covid kills a lot more. Maybe 20 times more.

According to HSPC (2017/2018 report was the first i found) 233 people were left with long term respiratory issues and 197 in the ICU due to the flu. They were not fine within a few days and as a percentage of cases they represent almost 4% with issues after contracting the flu.

Was it this report? 2018/19 report is also there, numbers are lower. 2017/18 happens to be the worst year.
But I think you've misread the report (understandable at 4am).

It says 233 outbreaks. Not 233 people left with issues. I can't see any mention of long term issues.

Also, how is 197 almost 4%? (report actually says 191.
That would mean there are only 5,000 cases of flu in Ireland per year?

I think you've made a mistake with your numbers somewhere. As flu infects much more than that.

Not by the numbers being given out. Not even close. In fact per case/death, flu is worse. That is only per year, taken over the last say ten years its way, way past covid.

I've just realised how cold and calculated that sounds. I know its not as simple as a numbers game, but at times it helps to break down the figures to help sort fact from fiction.

As above, I think you made a mistake with your numbers. As they at odds with numbers from the CDC and WHO. I don't think it was intentional, but I'd a feeling you are basing your rates on notified cases, and not total infections. Deaths per notified case for 2017/2018 was 1.7%, which would explain the mistake.

Notified cases are people that get really sick with the flu. Does not represent infections. Infections are around 10 times that.

BattleCorp

Cass wrote: »

Not by the numbers being given out. Not even close. In fact per case/death, flu is worse. That is only per year, taken over the last say ten years its way, way past covid.

I know this is only anecdotal evidence but.............

I don't personally know anyone under the age of 70 who has died of the flu, ever.
I know two people in their 50's who have died of COVID in the last month or so. And they weren't sickly individuals either.

I don't know anyone who had long lasting effects from the flu.
One of my friends (mid 30's, gym instructor, very healthy) got COVID back in May and she is still struggling to breathe, still on steroid inhalers, still going to hospital for check-ups, still getting x-rays etc. It's not really clearing up. I know an electrician who got it back in April and he hasn't worked since. He isn't actually able. I've seen him having to sit down to try catch his breath after putting on a coat.

I beg to differ that the flu is worse.

Rows Grower

Anyone that thinks the flu is worse is living in a misinformed bubble.

I know of a 43 year old working man that recently caught Covid and was dead within a week. Another chap super fit all his life member of Kerry Mountain Rescue in a coma for ages and very lucky to be alive.

I have siblings, nieces, nephews, in-laws and friends working in the front line and the stories are scary.

People calling this a scamdemic or saying the flu is worse would want to have a chat with themselves.

alan0387

Rows Grower wrote: »

I have siblings, nieces, nephews, in-laws and friends working in the front line and the stories are scary.

People calling this a scamdemic or saying the flu is worse would want to have a chat with themselves.

As I said my wife is currently on career break to take care of our special needs son, her friend is a bed manager in one of the dublin hospitals and has told my wife do not go back. It is too dangerous. It is worse in the hospitals than the media are releasing. I heard some stories over the years but its bad this time round.

As was mentioned before, wash your hands, wear your mask correctly, its a mask not a chin nappy. Your being asked to sit on your hole and watch TV, not dig into a trench and hope you don't get a round to the temple ffs.

I'm sick of it just like the next person, but its infuriating to see some people openly ignore or disregard any public health advise. Its people like that that have caused it to go on so long. People buckled down in NZ, they were clear and out of restrictions until they allowed travellers from still infected countries back in.

Cass

Mellor wrote: »

However, the data doesn't say that the virus is gone. It says that infections aren't present, which isn't the same thing.

Does the flu test the same as covid? What i mean by that is can someone have the flu, be tested and show positive for covid? Given the problems with testing?

I was basing my number on CDC data.

Is that not just America? I was thinking Ireland only.

But I think you've misread the report (understandable at 4am).

Its possible. More than possible actually.

As i said at the start i'm not qualified, nor is anyone here i think, to discuss this on the level it requires to fully understand not only the data (because as i said earlier stats are open to interpretation) but the virus and its effects.

To that end i was discussing it to see if i could get another position on it. I have and i know my numbers are only the start of the conversation, not the end, so to that end i'll drop the subject and take on board what you're saying.

Cass

BattleCorp wrote: »

I don't personally know anyone under the age of 70 who has died of the flu, ever.
I know two people in their 50's who have died of COVID in the last month or so. And they weren't sickly individuals either.

I don't know anyone who died of the flu or covid. I know over a dozen that tested positive for covid including my family (mentioned before) who were extremely high risk and came through unaffected. I also said earlier on that i'm not dismissing the seriousness of the illness just saying it hasn't been my experience.

Cass

alan0387 wrote: »

Your being asked to sit on your hole and watch TV, not dig into a trench and hope you don't get a round to the temple ffs.

Did you ever have a cigarette and no lighter so you want it more? How about seeing adverts on Tv for take away and want it even though you've just eaten.

Some of that behaviour is responsible for the current trends. I've never seen anyone walking or exercising in my area. Its fairly rural and the roads are not suitable for walkers, etc. Yet in the last, especially, 6 months i cannot drive 100 yards without finding some twat in the middle of the road with their "i'm walking" shorts on even though its -2.

You tell someone not to do something and you'll find a percentage will automatically want to do it. On the other end o the spectrum you have the ignorant moaners. I see it on other social media. People bitching and moaning about the amount of people in McDonalds or a coffee shop and they fail to realise that the kind of people they are giving out about includes them for being there too.

Some don't do the right thing out of apathy, some out of an incorrect sense of moral superiority. The majority will comply but can only go so far before being broke financially or mentally. We don't know what is going on with people or their circumstances so if you take away the ones that break the lockdown restrictions just to break them, those that are left could be in a position where they have to do what they're doing.

Like me they may not see the "real face" of this so start to think, "it's not that bad".