Opinions on when the next property crash may happen

Hollister11

I don't see a crash happening soon.

For example the asking price for this 2 bed apartment in Baldoyle was asking €190000, and according to the PPR it sold for €241,000. So as long as the demand is there, it's not going to crash.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/baldoyle/apt-20-parker-house-the-coast-baldoyle-dublin-1272510/

draiochtanois

This post has been deleted.

Hollister11

draiochtanois wrote: »

How much would it be to rent this?

Somewhere in the region of €1500 - €1800 per month.

In 2011/2012 similar apartments in the area sold for 80K.

Lumen

Hollister11 wrote: »

So as long as the demand is there, it's not going to crash.

That statement is so obvious as to be meaningless.

Obviously prices will fall if credit is restricted or supply/demand balance is disrupted, the question is what might cause that disruption, and when.

Brexit is a big one, but nobody knows what's going to happen there. Would I want to risk being stuck with a 200k+ mortgage on an apartment in Baldoyle if my job has just moved to Frankfurt? Nope. Would I want to risk being locked out of the property market for a generation by waiting too long? Nope.

That's the problem, nobody has any clue as to what's coming down the tracks. If I had seen this current insanity coming I would have loaded up on city centre apartments in 2012. I hadn't so I didn't.

In the medium term it's difficult to see how a city with such availability of land can support such insane prices. Look at north Dublin when flying into Dublin airport - there are huge tracts of green space.

A bet on property now is a bet on sustained planning incompetence and lack of joined up government. Sickening though that is, it seems like a safe bet.

sbsquarepants

Lumen wrote: »

Brexit is a big one, but nobody knows what's going to happen there. Would I want to risk being stuck with a 200k+ mortgage on an apartment in Baldoyle if my job has just moved to Frankfurt? Nope. Would I want to risk being locked out of the property market for a generation by waiting too long? Nope.

That's the problem, nobody has any clue as to what's coming down the tracks.

Unless you have a huge stash of cash, you're buying with a mortgage - it's impossible to predict what will happen over the course of that mortgage. Completely and utterly impossible.

There could be a crash the day after you buy but a recovery 10 years later leaving you sitting pretty, or a 20 year boom followed by a crash leaving you at a loss. It's too long a time frame to even try to predict.

All you can really do is buy something within your means at the time and hope for the best, and try to have an eye on the trend at the time you're buying - if prices are falling and you can wait, wait. If prices are climbing and you can buy, buy. Obviously if you're selling try do the opposite, but as generally people are selling one house to fund the purchase of another it's a catch 22 situation. It's largely pot luck really.

Cyrus

Lumen wrote: »

That statement is so obvious as to be meaningless.

Obviously prices will fall if credit is restricted or supply/demand balance is disrupted, the question is what might cause that disruption, and when.

Brexit is a big one, but nobody knows what's going to happen there. Would I want to risk being stuck with a 200k+ mortgage on an apartment in Baldoyle if my job has just moved to Frankfurt? Nope. Would I want to risk being locked out of the property market for a generation by waiting too long? Nope.

That's the problem, nobody has any clue as to what's coming down the tracks. If I had seen this current insanity coming I would have loaded up on city centre apartments in 2012. I hadn't so I didn't.

In the medium term it's difficult to see how a city with such availability of land can support such insane prices. Look at north Dublin when flying into Dublin airport - there are huge tracts of green space.

A bet on property now is a bet on sustained planning incompetence and lack of joined up government. Sickening though that is, it seems like a safe bet.

there arent huge tracts of land in places that people really want to live in though

4ensic15

Hollister11 wrote: »

I don't see a crash happening soon.

For example the asking price for this 2 bed apartment in Baldoyle was asking €190000, and according to the PPR it sold for €241,000. So as long as the demand is there, it's not going to crash.

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/baldoyle/apt-20-parker-house-the-coast-baldoyle-dublin-1272510/

That is what people were saying in 2004-2006!

Lumen

Cyrus wrote: »

there arent huge tracts of land in places that people really want to live in though

Yeah, obviously nobody wants to live in a field but they would want to live in those places if they were well planned with pleasant public spaces, local non-denominational schools and varied transport links.

i.e. not like this:

https://www.google.ie/maps/@53.442008,-6.2051689,3a,75y,61.68h,99.19t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s1yLVAMzy-IoqzOqOv1OkTQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

Zoom out and reveal the wonder of stacking a ****ty terrace behind a steel fence overlooking a major motorway next to open fields.

riclad

i read article in this weeks irish times ,
it says it costs 300k to build a house in ireland.
So theres not much house building going on,
its not easy for a builder to get finance for 100 houses plus find a site to build on.And then make a reasonable profit on the houses .

i don,t think we,ll have a crash in the next 7 years as prices are
going up in dublin, urban areas .
in 2004 you could borrow 150k to buy a house in cavan.
in the middle of nowwhere .
Banks look at your income now,
maybe you ,ll get 3-4 times your income .And you ,ll need a large deposit before you can buy anything.
There are more strict lending guidelines and the central bank
is looking closely at lending trends and practices .
WE might have a boom but its only in dublin and other citys ,
houses are still cheap in many rural towns .
theres working couples out there who have been saving for years
looking to buy a house .
Supply is low so prices are rising ,
but i see no sign of crazy reckless lending by the banks
as was happening in the celtic tiger years ,all over the country .
Just because prices are rising does not mean we ,ll see a housing price crash in a few years time .

vg88

The first warning signs of a crash?


https://fora.ie/property-crash-ireland-3637368-Oct2017/?utm_source=Fora+Newsletter&utm_campaign=0bd5048c94-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_10_13&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b2906f0b21-0bd5048c94-104442293

Henbabani

moloner4 wrote: »

The first warning signs of a crash?


https://fora.ie/property-crash-ireland-3637368-Oct2017/?utm_source=Fora+Newsletter&utm_campaign=0bd5048c94-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_10_13&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b2906f0b21-0bd5048c94-104442293

i guess, and hope that it will be sooner. the history taught us the the recession comes every decade.
the last burst boom was in 2008.

davo10

Henbabani wrote: »

i guess, and hope that it will be sooner. the history taught us the the recession comes every decade.
the last burst boom was in 2008.

The last bubble burst due to oversupply and excess of credit, until supply catches up, no prospect of prices dropping.

Zenify

davo10 wrote: »

The last bubble burst due to oversupply and excess of credit, until supply catches up, no prospect of prices dropping.

How can you be so sure?

if there's one thing for sure it's that people on boards always get things wrong.

2007 = property will never fall
2011 = Over supply of property will take decades to fill
2012 = Should rent and never buy

I don't know for sure what's going to happen but I think you should never go with the flow in Ireland.

davo10

Zenify wrote: »

How can you be so sure?

if there's one thing for sure it's that people on boards always get things wrong.

Have to agree with you, there could be 30,000 hidden new properties we don't know about.

2017: Have to rent if I can find a property, can't buy because there aren't enough and the one that are for sale there are loads of people like me looking to buy.

traveller0101

Properties are in short supply and salaries are going up at the moment. There's a lot of people living at home saving their money so they'll be able to pay a bigger deposit. House prices are being driven up by bidding wars by people with growing salaries and big deposits available.



I don't see that stopping really.


Brexit could mean more companies and people coming to Dublin. If that happens, there will be more demand. The supply probably won't have changed dramatically so that will bump the price.


Brexit might mean no new companies (other countries get those companies). Demand is already high so it will remain high so the price will still increase.


If supply can out grow the demand then the prices will level off but I personally doubt there can be enough supply in areas that people want to live (Close to the city centre).


There is some panic in the market where houses not in an ideal location are going for more than they are worth. I think those houses will grow into their values over time though so not necessarily a bad purchase.



I don't see a recession happening any time soon either.


I am not sure if this is a positive or negative post

Tigger

Zenify wrote: »

How can you be so sure?

if there's one thing for sure it's that people on boards always get things wrong.

2007 = property will never fall
2011 = Over supply of property will take decades to fill
2012 = Should rent and never buy

I don't know for sure what's going to happen but I think you should never go with the flow in Ireland.

2013!tigger buys a home
2017 thanks the forum for providing a resourse from which to gauge predictions

handlemaster

even if there is a crash so what ? If you bought at the hight of the market in 2007 you havent been paying rent for 10 years but paying down a mortgage.

__..__

It's all about the jobs.
If people don't have a job they can't buy.
So a crash will be a severe loss of jobs and less to do with supply of property.

Feckofff

Within 3 years.

The government is itching to tax the sh*t out of property. Even a 1-2% tax p.a. would wipe out the market.
A 1 million euro gaff looses a lot of it's appeal if you have to pay 10-20k p.a. just for the crack of owning it.
Of course the usual cohort will never be asked to pay this so politically it could be a winning move.

Lumen

Feckofff wrote: »

Within 3 years.

The government is itching to tax the sh*t out of property. Even a 1-2% tax p.a. would wipe out the market.
A 1 million euro gaff looses a lot of it's appeal if you have to pay 10-20k p.a. just for the crack of owning it.
Of course the usual cohort will never be asked to pay this so politically it could be a winning move.

It's not the million-quid-gaff cohort who would be taking to the streets, it's those with 300k gaffs who would have to pay 3-6k/year.

Not going to happen under FG, FF or even SF.

Even Sinn Fein, who claim to be pro-wealth taxes, are proposing a 1m threshold below which nothing is paid.

Duckjob

Feckofff wrote: »

Within 3 years.

The government is itching to tax the sh*t out of property. Even a 1-2% tax p.a. would wipe out the market.
A 1 million euro gaff looses a lot of it's appeal if you have to pay 10-20k p.a. just for the crack of owning it.
Of course the usual cohort will never be asked to pay this so politically it could be a winning move.

I think you underestimate how much of a vested interest the government has in keeping property well propped up. They are not going to do anything that might wipe out the market as they know they depend on it too much.

..and thats not even to mention all the personal interest there is at Leinster Hse in keeping those property portfolios well puffed up in value :pac:

lawred2

Feckofff wrote: »

Within 3 years.

The government is itching to tax the sh*t out of property. Even a 1-2% tax p.a. would wipe out the market.
A 1 million euro gaff looses a lot of it's appeal if you have to pay 10-20k p.a. just for the crack of owning it.
Of course the usual cohort will never be asked to pay this so politically it could be a winning move.

Nah.

celtic_oz

We are 2 years behind US recovery which looks to be breaking through sustainable growth now, last time there was 3 years of unsustainable growth in the US before it peaked and headed south .. so US in 3 years .. Ireland shortly after

My opinion only




I'm guessing halfway from excitement to thrill stage

The_Conductor

Celtic Oz- its an interesting graph- however, thats the extent of it.
Look at whats currently happening.
Absolute number of properties for rent is continuing to increase- however, this is hiding the effects of housing associations- and REITs- who are gobbling up an increasing quantity of the sector.
Many traditional estate and property management agencies- are getting out of the sector- citing the impossible regulatory regime.
Many small scale landlords- are similarly getting out of the sector- for the same reason (though obviously tax features very high on their list of reasons too- its moot for the REITs etc).

We are ontrack to have over 18k completions this year- which even 12 months ago we would have said was absolutely impossible- and our equilibrium supply level is still said to be 25k units- which some pundits are now saying we may hit in 2020- years earlier than people were predicting only 18 months ago...........

A lot of the supply side issues- are being recognised as locational in nature- we may have 110k vacant units nationally (which I don't believe- however, its a figure that is commonly brought out). However- if they're located in deepest dark Leitrim- they may as well be in deepest dark Peru.......... We need units in our major centres of population- and we need to cop on, and accept that ye 3 bed semi-d is a historic remnant- we need 1-2 bed high density units in Dublin, Cork and Galway city centres (Limerick for whatever reason- appears to have a shedload of vacant units- which I just don't get).

Your graph is interesting- however, it doesn't factor an incredibly onerous regulatory regime for investors into the equation- just who would want to be a landlord in Ireland's regulatory (and tax) regime?

Supplyside issues are being resolved faster than anyone anticipated- which is slowly being reflected in price rises plateau'ing or rises decreasing- the fact that this is radiating out from Dublin- is more of a worry- it would be understandable if lesser desireable locations were at the fore of tempering of increases- but that is not whats happening.

We have interesting times ahead- however, I fear Karl Deeter- while making the right call- is being too kind in imagining it will happen over the time scale he is highlighting............

Feckofff

Lumen wrote: »

It's not the million-quid-gaff cohort who would be taking to the streets, it's those with 300k gaffs who would have to pay 3-6k/year.

Not going to happen under FG, FF or even SF.

Even Sinn Fein, who claim to be pro-wealth taxes, are proposing a 1m threshold below which nothing is paid.

I doubt they would start with the small fry. They would probably start with 1m+ and work their way down.
How could anyone object to a tax on those nasty rich people living in there big houses when there's bleeding heart XYZ

Either way I see a real political risk attached to having property assets, home or investments.

For sure I have no crystal ball so hopefully I'm wrong

Villa05

The_Conductor wrote:

We are ontrack to have over 18k completions this year- which even 12 months ago we would have said was absolutely impossible- and our equilibrium supply level is still said to be 25k units- which some pundits are now saying we may hit in 2020- years earlier than people were predicting only 18 months ago...........

This 25k figure, How is it arrived at? Is it to fulfill housing demand in the private sector ie mortgage/cash buyer

Or does it include those that need a house but don't have the means to buy at current price levels.

Villa05

__..__ wrote:

It's all about the jobs. If people don't have a job they can't buy. So a crash will be a severe loss of jobs and less to do with supply of property.

Many people In jobs cannot afford to buy or rent in many places

lawred2

celtic_oz wrote: »

We are 2 years behind US recovery which looks to be breaking through sustainable growth now, last time there was 3 years of unsustainable growth in the US before it peaked and headed south .. so US in 3 years .. Ireland shortly after

My opinion only




I'm guessing halfway from excitement to thrill stage

I don't see any excitement currently... This isn't a repeat of the frenzy of 10 years ago. I don't see any of the buy to let madness where everyone's mother and dog were seeking to be investors that took hold back then. The majority of buyers (outside of institutions) are trying to buy homes. There are little to no amateur investors in the market currently.

This is supply and demand. Both access to credit and the amounts of available properties are heavily restricted in comparison to 10 years ago.

Villa05

handlemaster wrote:

even if there is a crash so what ? If you bought at the hight of the market in 2007 you havent been paying rent for 10 years but paying down a mortgage.

2 wrongs don't make a right. Plus a significant number of people have not being paying a mortgage or rent. Trouble warehoused for the next crash

handlemaster

Villa05 wrote: »

2 wrongs don't make a right. Plus a significant number of people have not being paying a mortgage or rent. Trouble warehoused for the next crash

2 wrongs ? what is the wrong ?