May 2017 Boards weather forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks (with reference to 28th also) ...

IMT at 12.2, week was a very warm 15.3 (3.4 above normal) although 28th held steady near 13 C. This does not seem likely to rise much further, perhaps ending at 12.3.

PRC is very close to 100% (99.5) after the week managed 122% with Casement and Oak Park getting heavy amounts, the rest much closer to average. And on the 28th amounts were generally slight so my earlier estimate after 27 days should perhaps have been 101% to the 27th. Rainfall since midnight and small amounts expected will leave this a bit short of 100% probably, guessing 97%.

SUN has slipped a little to 124% with this past week reporting 80% of normal values. Yesterday averaged only half of the normal amount. This may finish close to 120% of normal. No sun at all would still finish near 110%.

M.T. Cranium

Provisional scoring for May 2017

Just for fun these are the scores you would have if my current estimates hold up. The MAX scores can be considered final given that they are already calculated off minimum progression. Also the BONUS scores are settled.

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ BONUS ____ TOTAL

Estimated values ____ 12.3_26.2_--1.5_097_120___ N 10

Joe Public __________ 25 _ 16*_ 16 _ 12 _ 08 ___ 09 _______ 86
Dacogawa __________ 19 _ 18*_ 14 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 09 _______ 76
Rikand _____________22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 05 _______ 75
MrSkinner __________ 21 _ 15*_ 15 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 05 _______ 70
Tae laidir ___________19 _ 19*_ 04*_ 10 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 68
waterways __________15 _ 17*_ 08*_ 14 _ 04 ___ 10 _______ 68
Lumi ______________ 17 _ 11* _ 20 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 04 _______ 67

Con Sensus _________ 17 _ 09*_ 13 _ 13 _ 06 ___ 08 _______ 66

john mac ___________ 15 _ 12*_ 13 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 03 _______ 65
Bsal _______________ 17 _ 14*_ 13 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 04 _______ 64
Rameire ____ (-2) ____10 _ 07*_ 15 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 10 _ 64-2 = 62

NormaL ____________ 13 _ 15*_ 10 _ 14 _ 06 ___ 04 _______ 62

DOCARCH ___________15 _ 06*_ 14 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 07 _______ 58
Pauldry _____________15 _ 03*_ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 03 _______ 57
Jpmarn ____________ 17 _ 09*_ 04*_ 08 _ 08 ___ 10 _______ 56
Sunflower3 _________ 17 _ 09*_ 02*_ 12 _ 04 ___ 10 _______ 54
mickger844posts _____17 _ 14*_ 03*_ 11 _ 05 ___ 02 _______ 52
Kindred Spirit ________21 _ 05*_ 08*_ 04 _ 04 ___ 08 _______ 50
M.T. Cranium ________ 07 _ 02*_ 19 _ 09 _ 04 ___ 04 _______ 45
dasa29 _____________12 _ 01*_ 02*_ 14 _ 06 ___ 09 _______ 44
sryanbruen __________09 _ 02*_ 15 _ 07 _ 04 ___ 02 _______ 39
Water John __________11 _ 01*_ 01*_ 13 _ 04 ___ 06 _______ 36
200motels __________ 15 _ 05*_ 01*_ 04 _ 04 ___ 06 _______ 35

_________________________________________________

* minimum progression required for MAX and for lower portion of MIN.

I would expect only minor changes to these scores, but a final table will be posted on 2nd of June with annual updates to follow that.

M.T. Cranium

After the 29th ...

IMT remains on 12.2 with the day close to 13.5 C.

PRC has slipped back to 98% as the average rainfall was less than 2 mm.

SUN has fallen to 122% with the day quite cloudy (1.6 hours on average).

Will post another update tomorrow then wait for the final data as we assemble that from various sources on 1st and 2nd. Today (30th) probably won't change these numbers very much, PRC will likely settle in around 97%.

M.T. Cranium

After the 30th ...

IMT has made it to 12.3 and will likely stay there after today. The means on 30th were between 12 and 15, looks about the same today.

PRC has dropped again to 94% of normal with measly amounts here and there, and as today looks almost dry, would say that my estimate of 97% is going to come in closer to 91% which means 2 more points for anyone who predicted 91 or lower, same for 93 to 95, and 2 points less for anyone at 97 or higher. Will make those changes in the final copy as I can't edit that table already.

SUN had a good outing yesterday (average of 7 hours) which should arrest the decline at 125%, could finish around there too which will make for one point deductions to almost all the estimated scores.

I will be able to calculate IMT and PRC tomorrow but SUN will need to wait for Friday and the MS, when I also verify the MAX and MIN that we think we have identified accurately.

June thread is now open in the pinned section of the forum.

Tae laidir

Potential extra 3 points to Joe Public.
Getting close to the 90s!

Rikand

I might get 2 more for the PRC but lose 1 for the Sun

M.T. Cranium

IMT confirmed at 12.3 C

PRC confirmed at 92%.

SUN estimated at 122%.

That last one will be checked against the official totals tomorrow, because 92 is not 97-6, it makes the recalculation of points a bit more complicated, as PRC is scored by 3% error increments. Same goes for sun although most people enter with multiples of 5 and so 122 is going to score like 125 for most although Joe Public catches a break if this is actually the value.

Anyway, the changes should be minor, assuming that the MAX and MIN are what we are expecting, and MAX is already on minimum progression. I will have a look at the spectrum of MIN scores to make sure the transition from raw to adjusted is fair throughout (nobody will lose points on that). It's unusual to have to adjust the lower scores and not touch the higher half of them but the rules are objective so I just follow them.

Anyway, seems possible that Joe Public will gain three points and finish on 89, well done, also to Dacogawa who may gain points as well. Back tomorrow with the final results, and annual/seasonal updates.

(31st was just slightly warmer than the month and rounded up the IMT to finish right on 12.3, not much rain reported and almost the normal amount of sun across the grid, so have estimated SUN from 90% of normal 29th-31st.)

M.T. Cranium

Here are the confirmed values ...

IMT 12.3

MAX 26.1

MIN --1.5

PRC 092

SUN 115

Bonus N 10

Apparently the sunshine that I estimated in week two was a bit lower and maybe the last three days at 70% gives this outcome, it is a bit lower than I was tracking. All five stations other than Valentia (90%) were around 120 to 130 per cent.

That's going to result in one extra point for most of the field and the revised scoring table follows ...

Confirmed scoring for May 2017

FORECASTER ________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___ BONUS ____ TOTAL

Confirmed values ____ 12.3_26.1_--1.5_092_115___ N 10

Joe Public __________ 25 _ 16*_ 16 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 09 _______ 87
Dacogawa __________ 19 _ 18*_ 14 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 09 _______ 79
Rikand _____________22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 05 _______ 75
MrSkinner __________ 21 _ 15*_ 15 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 05 _______ 72
Tae laidir ___________19 _ 19*_ 04*_ 12 _ 10 ___ 07 _______ 71
Lumi ______________ 17 _ 11* _ 20 _ 11 _ 07 ___ 04 _______ 70

Con Sensus _________ 17 _ 09*_ 13 _ 15 _ 07 ___ 08 _______ 69

waterways __________15 _ 17*_ 08*_ 12 _ 05 ___ 10 _______ 67
Bsal _______________ 17 _ 14*_ 13 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 04 _______ 67
Rameire ____ (-2) ____10 _ 07*_ 15 _ 15 _ 10 ___ 10 _ 67-2 = 65
john mac ___________ 15 _ 12*_ 13 _ 12 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 64

NormaL ____________ 13 _ 15*_ 10 _ 12 _ 07 ___ 04 _______ 61

DOCARCH ___________15 _ 06*_ 14 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 07 _______ 60
Pauldry _____________15 _ 03*_ 15 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 03 _______ 60
Jpmarn ____________ 17 _ 09*_ 04*_ 08 _ 07 ___ 10 _______ 56
mickger844posts _____17 _ 14*_ 03*_ 13 _ 06 ___ 02 _______ 55
Sunflower3 _________ 17 _ 09*_ 02*_ 11 _ 05 ___ 10 _______ 54
Kindred Spirit ________21 _ 05*_ 08*_ 02 _ 05 ___ 08 _______ 49
dasa29 _____________12 _ 01*_ 02*_ 14 _ 07 ___ 09 _______ 45
M.T. Cranium ________ 07 _ 02*_ 19 _ 07 _ 05 ___ 04 _______ 44
sryanbruen __________09 _ 02*_ 15 _ 06 _ 05 ___ 02 _______ 39
Water John __________11 _ 01*_ 01*_ 15 _ 05 ___ 06 _______ 39
200motels __________ 15 _ 05*_ 01*_ 03 _ 05 ___ 06 _______ 35
_________________________________________________

* minimum progression required for MAX and for lower portion of MIN

(actual forecasts ...)


FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Winds Bel 7th noon


Joe Public __________ 12.3 _ 24.9 _--1.9 _ 089 _ 129 ___NE 9
Rikand _____________12.0 _ 23.0 _--1.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ E 17
MrSkinner __________ 11.9 _ 24.0 _--1.0 _ 075 _ 100 ___ E16
Kindred Spirit _______ 11.9 _ 22.0 __ 0.0 _ 130 _ 090 ___NE 13
Tae laidir ___________11.7 _ 25.5 __ 0.5 _ 082 _ 115 ___SE 12
Dacogawa __________11.7 _ 25.4 _--0.9 _ 082 _ 102 ___NE 12
mickger844posts _____11.5 _ 23.5 __ 1.0 _ 085 _ 095 ___ E 18
Bsal _______________11.5 _ 23.5 _--0.8 _ 077 _ 108 ___NE 20
Lumi ______________ 11.5 _ 23.1 _--1.5 _ 080 _ 100 ___SW 7
Sunflower3 _________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __ 1.4 _ 105 _ 090 ___NE 10
Jpmarn ____________ 11.5 _ 22.5 __ 0.5 _ 075 _ 130 ___NE 10

Con Sensus _________ 11.5 _ 22.5 _--0.8 _ 091 _ 100 ___ E 12

waterways __________11.3 _ 25.0 _--3.0 _ 100 _ 090 ___NW 10
john mac ___________ 11.3 _ 23.5 _--0.8 _ 101 _ 110 ___SE 3
DOCARCH __________ 11.3 _ 22.3 _--0.9 _ 075 _ 110 ___SE 11
200motels __________ 11.3 _ 22.0 __ 1.9 _ 129 _ 091 ___ E 15
Pauldry _____________11.3 _ 21.9 _--1.0 _ 092 _ 109 ___ S 15

NormaL ____________ 11.1 _ 24.0 _ --0.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___SW 14

dasa29 _____________11.0 _ 19.5 __ 1.0 _ 095 _ 100 ___SE 10
Water John __________10.9 _ 19.0 __ 2.8 _ 091 _ 090 ___SW 12
Rameire ____ (-2) ____10.8 _ 22.4 _--1.0 _ 091 _ 115 ___NE 10
sryanbruen __________10.7 _ 20.0 _--1.0 _ 120 _ 090 ___ E 25
M.T. Cranium ________10.5 _ 21.5 _--1.4 _ 115 _ 090 ___NE 19

______________________________________________________________


Congrats to Joe Public, Dacogawa and Rikand for leading the way in May, annual and seasonal updates to follow in about an hour, I hope.

M.T. Cranium

Annual scoring January to May 2017

The first rank in brackets (column 2) is your rank from last month's table to show changes in the order of scoring. After the "best 4 of 5" another rank in brackets refers to your ranking in that scoring race. This portion will continue to best 8 of 9 and then jumps to best 8 of 10 in October as we close in on the final best 10 of 12 for the main scoring award ... and the table will then be ordered by these ranks instead of the total scoring as will be the case from now to September.

rank/ FORECASTER _____ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY __ TOTAL _____ Best 4 of 5 (rank)

01 (02) Con Sensus _____ 59 _ 66 _ 74 _ 62 _ 69 ___ 330 ______ 271 (t3)

01 (04) Tae laidir _______ 68 _ 57 _ 56 _ 76 _ 71 ___ 328 ______ 272 (t1)
t02 (01)mickger844posts _ 74 _ 54 _ 73 _ 63 _ 55 ___ 319 ______ 265 (4)
t02 (02) DOCARCH ______ 47 _ 73 _ 65 _ 74 _ 60 ___ 319 ______ 272 (t1)
04 (05) John mac _______ 58 _ 59 _ 76 _ 62 _ 64 ___ 319 ______ 261 (6)
05 (03) pauldry _________74 _ 66 _ 62 _ 56 _ 60 ___ 318 ______ 262 (5)
06 (08) Rikand _________ 54 _ 63 _ 66 _ 54 _ 75 ___ 312 ______ 258 (7)
07 (11) Rameire ________ 57 _ 56 _ 52 _ 66 _ 65 ___ 296 ______ 244 (t10)

t07 (10) NormaL ________43 _ 68 _ 61 _ 63 _ 61 ___ 296 ______ 253 (9)

08 (14) MrSkinner _______50 _ 66 _ 41 _ 66 _ 72 ___ 295 ______ 254 (8)
t09 (06) Kindred Spirit ___ 54 _ 78 _ 55 _ 56 _ 49 ___ 292 ______ 243 (t12)
t09 (13) Bsal ___________49 _ 58 _ 60 _ 58 _ 67 ___ 292 ______ 243 (t12)
t11 (07) sryanbruen _____ 43 _ 76 _ 62 _ 60 _ 39 ___ 280 ______ 241 (t14)
t11 (18) Joe Public ______ 36 _ 57 _ 54 _ 46 _ 87 ___ 280 ______ 244 (t10)
13 (10) Dasa29 _________55 _ 49 _ 59 _ 69 _ 45 ___ 277 ______ 232 (18)
14 (12) M.T. Cranium ____53 _ 46 _ 75 _ 56 _ 44 ___ 274 ______ 230 (19)
15 (15) Jpmarn _________70 _ 70 _ 22 _ 55 _ 56 ___ 273 ______ 251 (9)
16 (09) 200motels ______ 64 _ 51 _ 69 _ 52 _ 35 ___ 271 ______ 236 (17)
17 (17) Lumi ___________57 _ 72 _ 72 _ --- _ 70 ___ 271 ______ 271 (3)
18 (16) sunflower3 ______ 46 _ 48 _ 62 _ 56 _ 54 ___ 266 ______ 220 (20)
19 (19) waterways ______ 49 _ 58 _ 67 _ 12 _ 67 ___ 253 ______ 241 (t14)
20 (21) Dacogawa _______46 _ 62 _ --- _ 51 _ 79 ___ 238 ______ 238 (16)
21 (20) JCX BXC ________--- _ 60 _ 63 _ 47 _ --- ___ 170 ______ 170 (21)
22 (23) waterjohn ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ 62 _ 39 ___ 101
23 (22) sdanseo ________--- _ --- _ --- _ 68 _ --- ____ 68

=================================================

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The scoring race is really quite a logjam if you consider the best 4 of 5, the spread from 1st to 20th is only 52 points, and the first seven are separated by only 14 points. Congrats to Tae laidir for moving into first place (just behind Con Sensus) in the total points division, and he's tied with DOCARCH in the best 4 of 5, with Lumi one point behind in third.

An update on the spring seasonal scoring will follow.

M.T. Cranium

Update on Four seasons contest

Points are awarded for total scores in each season. Spring is March, April and May. The table below shows the ten qualifying totals and points for spring, and also the points gained in the winter (Dec to Feb) portion of this ongoing contest.

The table is in the order of spring points, ranks for total points are shown in brackets beside the totals.


FORECASTER _____ Spring ___ Points ____ Winter points ____ TOTAL to date

Con Sensus ________ 205 ____10 _________ 3 ____________ 13 ( 2 )

Tae laidir __________ 203 ____10 _________ 7 ____________ 17 ( 1 )
John mac __________ 202 ____ 7 _________ 0 _____________ 7 ( 4 )
DOCARCH __________199 ____ 6 _________ 2 _____________ 8 ( 3 )
Rikand ____________ 195 ____ 5 _________ 1 _____________ 6 (t 5)
Mickger844posts ____ 191 ____ 4 _________ 1 _____________ 5 (t 8)
Joe Public __________187 ____ 3 _________ 0 _____________ 3 (t 10)
Bsal ______________ 185 ____ 2 _________ 0 _____________ 2 (12)

NormaL ___________ 185 ____ 2 _________ 3 ______________5 (t 8)

Rameire ___________ 183 ____ 1 _________ 0 _____________ 1
MrSkinner __________179 ____ 1 _________ 5 _____________ 6 (t 5)
Pauldry ____________178 ____ 1 ________ 10 _____________11 ( 2 )
M.T. Cranium _______175 ____ 0 _________ 0 ______________0
Dasa29 ____________173 ____ 0 _________ 0 _____________ 0
sunflower3 _________172 ____ 0 _________ 3 _____________ 3 (t 10)
sryanbruen _________161 ____ 0 _________ 0 _____________ 0
Kindred Spirit _______160 ____ 0 _________ 1 _____________ 1
200motels _________ 156 ____ 0 _________ 1 _____________ 1
waterways _________ 146 ____ 0 _________ 0 _____________ 0
Lumi (2 mo) ________142 ____ 0 _________ 5 _____________ 5 (t 8)
Jpmarn ____________133 ____ 0 _________ 6 _____________ 6 (t 5)
Dacogawa (2 mo) ____130 ____ 0 _________ 0 _____________ 0
______________________________________________________

Tae laidir is the leader for both spring and four seasons to date, with John mac in second place for spring, Pauldry holds on to second overall.