Last Leg of Accum - Cash Out Help/Advice

langer91

TL;DR - Waiting on Newcastle to win the Championship for a 6,798.46 euro total profit payout.

I have two season long accumulators placed which all basically comes down to the final day of the season in the Championship.
I need Newcastle to win the league, where they are currently in second place 1 point behind Brighton, in order to win the above figure, from a total initial bet of 300 euro.

The odds on Newcastle to do this is evens, while Brighton are currently best priced 4/5 to win the title.

Newcastle are priced at 2/5 to beat Barnsley at home in their final game, while Brighton need to beat Aston Villa away at odds of 13/10.

I'm looking for opinions & advise on what are my best options for locking in profit here in terms of stake in backing Brighton to win the league?

I'm thinking of possibly putting 2k to 2.5k on Brighton to win the league as I think Newcastle will do it, but still want to lock in a decent amount of profit (I may wait till further on in the week as I think Newcastle's odds to win against Barnsley will shorten, whereas Brighton's odds could very well drift).

I welcome any advice/opinions on the above, and am open to all options.

Once the season is over, I'll throw up the betslips as proof.

(Here's a link to one of the bets I put in the season long accums thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100494187&postcount=13

abarkie

Have you got cash available?

Why not lay Newcastle or back Brighton on exchanges for £3k so you have a £3k whatever happens

Glenbhoy

abarkie wrote: »

Have you got cash available?

Why not lay Newcastle or back Brighton on exchanges for £3k so you have a £3k whatever happens

I'd agree with the general sentiments, keep out of the match betting prices, the best way to get exposed to this is via the championship outright markets directly as this will minimise the profit margins that bookies build into each market they price up.
Currently, though, there isn't a huge amount of money available on this market, though that should change during the week.

It might be worth, sticking say €1500 on Brighton to win the title (or lay NC to lose that amount, always check the back and lay to see what give the best value, as there can be slight difference) and then, if NC score early, their price will drop and go again. It all depends on the level of risk you want and how greedy you are!! Personally I usually run with something like the above, where I hedge for an amount I would take, but be a little disappointed with, in the hope that in-running, i can lump a bit more on when prices are more accommodating.
Nice profit btw, what were the other selections?

langer91

abarkie wrote: »

Have you got cash available?

Why not lay Newcastle or back Brighton on exchanges for £3k so you have a £3k whatever happens

No cash out available I'm afraid!

Glenbhoy wrote: »

I'd agree with the general sentiments, keep out of the match betting prices, the best way to get exposed to this is via the championship outright markets directly as this will minimise the profit margins that bookies build into each market they price up.
Currently, though, there isn't a huge amount of money available on this market, though that should change during the week.

It might be worth, sticking say €1500 on Brighton to win the title (or lay NC to lose that amount, always check the back and lay to see what give the best value, as there can be slight difference) and then, if NC score early, their price will drop and go again. It all depends on the level of risk you want and how greedy you are!! Personally I usually run with something like the above, where I hedge for an amount I would take, but be a little disappointed with, in the hope that in-running, i can lump a bit more on when prices are more accommodating.
Nice profit btw, what were the other selections?

I really like this idea Glenbhoy, and I think this is the approach I will take. Newcastle taking an early lead really would be the dream situation.

I have two accumulators placed:

Accum 1 - Just under 58/1 - 100 euro staked

Bayern Munich (to win the league)
Monaco (top 3 finish)
Aberdeen (w/o Old Firm teams)
Newcastle (to win the Championship)
Juventus (to win the league)
Hull (to be bottom on Christmas Day)

Hull were 3/1 to be bottom on Xmas day, and I threw in "bankers" to bump up the odds of the accum then. Hull were actually bottom on Xmas day on goal difference, level on points with Swansea, so this accum is lucky to have made it this far to be honest.

Accum 2 - 5/1 - 200 euro staked

Newcastle to win the league
France to top their Euro 2016 Group

Placed this back in May 2016 before the Euro's started, got Newcastle at 7/2 right after they had been relegated last season and Rafa had confirmed he was staying on in the job so I lumped on.

Many thanks for your suggestions!

jacool

You should change your name, because you are anything but a langer.
Good luck with the laying off - always better to take a profit in these situations.
Also, you never know who has been out on the beer celebrating !!!

spurshero

langer91 wrote: »

TL;DR - Waiting on Newcastle to win the Championship for a 6,798.46 euro total profit payout.

I have two season long accumulators placed which all basically comes down to the final day of the season in the Championship.
I need Newcastle to win the league, where they are currently in second place 1 point behind Brighton, in order to win the above figure, from a total initial bet of 300 euro.

The odds on Newcastle to do this is evens, while Brighton are currently best priced 4/5 to win the title.

Newcastle are priced at 2/5 to beat Barnsley at home in their final game, while Brighton need to beat Aston Villa away at odds of 13/10.

I'm looking for opinions & advise on what are my best options for locking in profit here in terms of stake in backing Brighton to win the league?

I'm thinking of possibly putting 2k to 2.5k on Brighton to win the league as I think Newcastle will do it, but still want to lock in a decent amount of profit (I may wait till further on in the week as I think Newcastle's odds to win against Barnsley will shorten, whereas Brighton's odds could very well drift).

I welcome any advice/opinions on the above, and am open to all options.

Once the season is over, I'll throw up the betslips as proof.

(Here's a link to one of the bets I put in the season long accums thread: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100494187&postcount=13

And send a case of beer to Bristol city who done you a massive favour last Saturday

abarkie

I see Newcastle have gone 1 up

1/12 to lay for the match

Now is time to lay that for ?500 and guarantee ?5K whatever happens

Glenbhoy

abarkie wrote: »

I see Newcastle have gone 1 up

1/12 to lay for the match

Now is time to lay that for ?500 and guarantee ?5K whatever happens

except that if brighton win, what newcastle do is irrelevant and then you just lose the 500!!

We need a villa goal!! Good luck, rooting for you.

Though I hear the bookies are dreading a newcastle win, three antepost favs, portsmouth, sheff utd and newcastle. Incidentally, Brighton and Doncaster were laid as low as 1.02 in betfair a few weeks ago (for large amounts) to win their divisions.

abarkie

Glenbhoy wrote: »

except that if brighton win, what newcastle do is irrelevant and then you just lose the 500!!

We need a villa goal!! Good luck, rooting for you.

Though I hear the bookies are dreading a newcastle win, three antepost favs, portsmouth, sheff utd and newcastle. Incidentally, Brighton and Doncaster were laid as low as 1.02 in betfair a few weeks ago (for large amounts) to win their divisions.

But he has already back Brighton and edited it out of the thread

Brighton:
Image: http://imgur.com/a/Wvy5i

Glenbhoy

abarkie wrote: »

But he has already back Brighton and edited it out of the thread

Brighton:
Image: http://imgur.com/a/Wvy5i

ah right, though I'd hold on yet, it's too risky imo to just hedge on the NC win, the longer villa hold on, the lower the NC outright odds will go, I'd try and hold off until at least 1.5 and then lay them a touch for say another 500 to win 1,000, and probably leave it at that.

Btw, i see the lowest Brigton have been backed at for the outright was 1.05, not 1.02.

langer91

Sorry I uploaded that pic earlier but it wasn't appearing correctly.

Nothing I can do at this stage, just see what happens

langer91

Jack Grealish, you beautiful beautiful man! Can't believe it

callaway92

langer91 wrote: »

Jack Grealish, you beautiful beautiful man! Can't believe it

But you split down the middle wasn't it?

Great bet pre season by the way!

langer91

These are the 3 bets:

5/1 Double - 1000 prof

[IMG][/img]

58/1 Accum - 5800 Profit

[IMG][/img]

Hedge Bet - 1700 Loss

[IMG][/img]

Overall - 5k win

Glenbhoy

langer91 wrote: »

These are the 3 bets:

5/1 Double - 1000 prof

[IMG][/img]

58/1 Accum - 5800 Profit

[IMG][/img]

Hedge Bet - 1700 Loss

[IMG][/img]

Overall - 5k win

Well done, got lucky there and tbh with brighton's collapse overall, but hey..

Always nice not to have hedged to extreme when the original bet comes in.

Don't blow it all over the next few weeks thinking you're big time now:D:D