Should farmers start planning for Brexit?

Bass Reeves

greenfield21 wrote: »

Yeah good thinking. if you're mad for dairying why not buy land in the north and move the cows up there when Irish dairy collapses. Can't understand why everyone keeps talking about beef, most of our dairy food services sector relys on the Brits. They don't seem to buying much of our milk powder anyway. Its all the high value products.

There is no levy/duty on Milk products AFAIK so milk will not be under the same pressure

charolais0153

kowtow wrote: »

I was thinking more of after a bad brexit.

If UK does badly - land *might* fall in price. NI land *might* fall faster
If UK recovers, does well out of brexit, NI recovers with it
If UK never recovers (unlikely IMO) stronger chance of UI - NI ultimately recovers compared to South

Tongue in cheek suggestion really, land too expensive everywhere.

Farmers in uk are expecting sheep to collapse and cattle to rise so if you had a herd number in ni you coyld kill them up there even though they were reared in ireland....

TooOldBoots

I think the UK will end up with no deal. The EU has already indicated that it will support Ireland and its agri and food industry for a transition period of a few years. Support could be in the form of export refunds to cover UK tarifs.
The whole thing could get very nasty yet with the UK not allowing free movement of goods through the UK from Ireland onto Europe.
The car industry in the UK along with its finance center in london will at that stage be RIP.
What will happen to all those trainloads of workers from Belfast into Dublin everyday is another question. I think once the people of NI loose their freedom to work in the EU they will have to make choose if they still want to be part of the UK.

einn32

What are we supposed to plan for?? Nobody in the UK has a clue how to cut ties with the EU. Plus the EU are not making it easy making it a huge undertaking. We just won't know the issues until the dust settles. We can speculate alright and gamble!

The UK puts a lot of money into the EU pot, which has to hurt when it's removed. Subsidies are more important to farming in Ireland then prices received. A strict border would surely hurt Ireland.

Loves_lorries

TooOldBoots wrote: »

I think the UK will end up with no deal. The EU has already indicated that it will support Ireland and its agri and food industry for a transition period of a few years. Support could be in the form of export refunds to cover UK tarifs.
The whole thing could get very nasty yet with the UK not allowing free movement of goods through the UK from Ireland onto Europe.
The car industry in the UK along with its finance center in london will at that stage be RIP.
What will happen to all those trainloads of workers from Belfast into Dublin everyday is another question. I think once the people of NI loose their freedom to work in the EU they will have to make choose if they still want to be part of the UK.

London won't see that much of a fall off in finance, its been the premiere financial capital for centuries now.

Switzerland is a major financial hub too and its not in the EU.

TooOldBoots

Loves_lorries wrote: »

London won't see that much of a fall off in finance, its been the premiere financial capital for centuries now.

Switzerland is a major financial hub too and its not in the EU.

Switzerland is fully aligned with the EU rules, regulations and customs area. The UK is looking to be out of these. The exodus out of London by financial firms has started and will happen in a big way if a no deal brexit happens.
The whole thing is madness on their behalf. They basically think they can have open trade without the rules. Theirs no way that can happen.

Expect the Car manufacturers to start reducing output from December on. Once Toyota, Nissan and a few more issue protective notice to the workers you'll see a big change in attitude with panic stations in full mode

kowtow

TooOldBoots wrote: »

Switzerland is fully aligned with the EU rules, regulations and customs area. The UK is looking to be out of these. The exodus out of London by financial firms has started and will happen in a big way if a no deal brexit happens.
The whole thing is madness on their behalf. They basically think they can have open trade without the rules. Theirs no way that can happen.

Expect the Car manufacturers to start reducing output from December on. Once Toyota, Nissan and a few more issue protective notice to the workers you'll see a big change in attitude with panic stations in full mode

I wouldn't count on the UK financial services market being devastated.

Santander (a Spanish bank) put £150 million and 5,000 jobs into the UK last week.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

There's a lot of fake news doing the rounds!

K.G.

kowtow wrote: »

land north of the border.

Thats a little dramatic. I was thinking more in terms of inputs or cash.there only seems to be demand for short keep cattle due to silage but should people be buying longer keep to avoid selling at an uncertain time in the spring

kowtow

K.G. wrote: »

Thats a little dramatic. I was thinking more in terms of inputs or cash.there only seems to be demand for short keep cattle due to silage but should people be buying longer keep to avoid selling at an uncertain time in the spring

Very, very difficult to say.

This is our first year doing calf to beef alongside dairy, and on expensive rented ground at that. It would be difficult to generate a bigger disaster financially speaking (given the weather) if we had tried.

If there is a happy Brexit deal (and one has to presume that beyond all the bluster there is some willingness on both sides to do a deal..) then what is the chance of a strong spike in the price of cattle come the Spring?

memorystick

I think you're right. Beef could peak in February.

TooOldBoots

kowtow wrote: »

I wouldn't count on the UK financial services market being devastated.

Santander (a Spanish bank) put £150 million and 5,000 jobs into the UK last week.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

There's a lot of fake news doing the rounds!

Thats a peanuts amount of money in banking terms. Plus you failed to mention all the caveats with the deal.
Frankfurt financial center will be the biggest winner from this. Don't take the Germans for fools, they know exactly what they are doing. The Irish will have very little say at the end of the day

Timmaay

greenfield21 wrote: »

Yeah good thinking. if you're mad for dairying why not buy land in the north and move the cows up there when Irish dairy collapses. Can't understand why everyone keeps talking about beef, most of our dairy food services sector relys on the Brits. They don't seem to buying much of our milk powder anyway. Its all the high value products.

If your mad for dairying and are flexible about where to start then heading out west, Roscommon/sligo etc I think would be a good bet, plenty of land in lower demand that the traditional dairy/tillage strongholds of munster/Leinster, and assuming they are right about climate change down that way will grow plenty of grass moving forward.

charolais0153

Timmaay wrote: »

If your mad for dairying and are flexible about where to start then heading out west, Roscommon/sligo etc I think would be a good bet, plenty of land in lower demand that the traditional dairy/tillage strongholds of munster/Leinster, and assuming they are right about climate change down that way will grow plenty of grass moving forward.

Ye have a headstart of 2 weeks in terms of growth. In feb this year, the difference between sourh galway and north tipp was staggering.

Willfarman

Lab our party wants to go back to the ballot.. there won’t be much of an exit at I think now. A half arsed one at worst.

Timmaay

charolais0153 wrote: »

Ye have a headstart of 2 weeks in terms of growth. In feb this year, the difference between sourh galway and north tipp was staggering.

Fully agreed, even earlier here in the south east, however in years like this we lost 4 or 5times the amount over the drought. Please God this year is a complete exception obviously ha, but if it's anything a sign of what's to come I still think the more inland west areas are a very viable area of growth for grass based dairying.

Say my name

Timmaay wrote: »

Fully agreed, even earlier here in the south east, however in years like this we lost 4 or 5times the amount over the drought. Please God this year is a complete exception obviously ha, but if it's anything a sign of what's to come I still think the more inland west areas are a very viable area of growth for grass based dairying.

From what I hear you're too late on that idea. Some big dairy farms already recently set up in that area from southeast ex pats.
It's Ireland's answer to New Zealand's south island.

K.G.

How much and which of our main inputs will come through uk or british businesses

ganmo

K.G. wrote: »

How much and which of our main inputs will come through uk or british businesses

A lot of the medications and doses.
Chanelle are the only ones I’m sure are manufacturing in Ireland. Norbrook are in newry so are close. I’m not sure where msd’s and bimeda’s manufacting are.

alps

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There is no levy/duty on Milk products AFAIK so milk will not be under the same pressure

Cheese at 40% duty, maybe fresh products at a lower rate, but some coops really concerned and really exposed.

As far as financial support mentioned earlier, just look at the amount previous supports have amounted to. While welcome, they really wouldn't have amounted to single digit percentages of the shortfalls...

Some lads could only use them yo pay for a ski holiday...??

Suckler

Willfarman wrote: »

Lab our party wants to go back to the ballot.. there won’t be much of an exit at I think now. A half arsed one at worst.

Labour are desperate for renewed voter approval after the last few months of Corbyn being strung up on antisemitism claims. I think they'd say anything to get people (especially young voters) looking their way again.

alps

https://www.facebook.com/100000600982483/posts/2237011682995509/

_Brian

In lots of ways there’s a huge similarity to the Y2K hype going on.

Nobody knows what is going to happen so people are rolling out all sorts of doomsday scenarios.

The one thing beauracrats are great for is holding out right to the end and then a fudge is rolled out that makes everyone look like they achieved what they wanted while only making small concessions to the other side.

The U.K. will be grand either way, chances the average joe soap on the street will see no deference either way.

Farmers planning for Brexit is like saying we should have been planning for the trade war between USA and Turkey that is having such a serious effect on cattle at the moment, there is so little you can do.

If nothing else the Brits can just do what USA and EU did during the current recession and quantitative ease their way out of any trouble, yes it’s kicking the can down the road, but to a lesser or greater extent that’s what all large western nations do. Issue a 30-40 year bond in the hopes it will be sorted by then, and if not issue another bigger bond to cover the house again.

I think for our own perspective there will be export refunds or intervention measures to cover us to some extent.

Im shocked there has been no work in developing more deep sea port capacity in either Rosslare or Cork, it’s something I think the current government are being complacent on. We should have shelved all but essential infrastructure development and started a plan to make ourselves more resilient on getting goods in and out without the U.K., as it stands it’s a huge bargaining chip for the U.K. and even the EU should be pushing us to get alternative plans in place. Maybe we have the capacity but I’ve read that we would need to double at least our shipping capacity.

ganmo

alps wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/100000600982483/posts/2237011682995509/

not working

Bass Reeves

_Brian wrote: »

In lots of ways there’s a huge similarity to the Y2K hype going on.

Nobody knows what is going to happen so people are rolling out all sorts of doomsday scenarios.

The one thing beauracrats are great for is holding out right to the end and then a fudge is rolled out that makes everyone look like they achieved what they wanted while only making small concessions to the other side.

The U.K. will be grand either way, chances the average joe soap on the street will see no deference either way.

Farmers planning for Brexit is like saying we should have been planning for the trade war between USA and Turkey that is having such a serious effect on cattle at the moment, there is so little you can do.

If nothing else the Brits can just do what USA and EU did during the current recession and quantitative ease their way out of any trouble, yes it’s kicking the can down the road, but to a lesser or greater extent that’s what all large western nations do. Issue a 30-40 year bond in the hopes it will be sorted by then, and if not issue another bigger bond to cover the house again.

I think for our own perspective there will be export refunds or intervention measures to cover us to some extent.

Im shocked there has been no work in developing more deep sea port capacity in either Rosslare or Cork, it’s something I think the current government are being complacent on. We should have shelved all but essential infrastructure development and started a plan to make ourselves more resilient on getting goods in and out without the U.K., as it stands it’s a huge bargaining chip for the U.K. and even the EU should be pushing us to get alternative plans in place. Maybe we have the capacity but I’ve read that we would need to double at least our shipping capacity.

I am not sure if there can be a fudge. The British want total access to the EU but ha ve there own rules and standards. They talk about a free trade deal like Canada but Canada cannot provide services into the EU this would end Londan as the main European Fiancial hub. THe Eu know has to be willing yo accept a hit on its economy because if it lets the UK make its own rules and standards it will have to give Norway and Switerland the same deal who both accept European rules and free travel arrangements.

On Irish ports we have plenty of deep port access. At present the access corrodor to Foynes is going to planning stage. Foynes is the deepest port in Europe after Amsterdam as far as I know. It will cost very little to develop it after the road is build.

alps

alps wrote: »

https://www.facebook.com/100000600982483/posts/2237011682995509/

Try this

https://youtu.be/svwslRDTyzU

Mac Taylor

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I am not sure if there can be a fudge. The British want total access to the EU but ha ve there own rules and standards. They talk about a free trade deal like Canada but Canada cannot provide services into the EU this would end Londan as the main European Fiancial hub. THe Eu know has to be willing yo accept a hit on its economy because if it lets the UK make its own rules and standards it will have to give Norway and Switerland the same deal who both accept European rules and free travel arrangements.

On Irish ports we have plenty of deep port access. At present the access corrodor to Foynes is going to planning stage. Foynes is the deepest port in Europe after Amsterdam as far as I know. It will cost very little to develop it after the road is build.

A good few years ago ed Walsh ex ul president suggedted this, Rotterdam is full to the gills. Only some minor road improvements and the you have access to the motorway. 2 hrs to Dublin. Only pity is we didn’t do it 20 years ago

greenfield21

I would love to see another vote, just to see the remainers faces when Britain votes to leave again. Its mad that support is still only in the fifties for remain with all the media hatred for leave. Look how well the British economy is doing and they would probably still leave now, with a little help from farage and Boris like last time I have no doubt leave would win again. Those two could be past it though.

Grueller

My reading is that the leave supporters are much like Trump supporters, they have nothing to lose.
The media is calling for remain as it is controlled by the middle and upper classes. They have loads to lose.
If you have ever been to Sunderland or Stoke (I have relations that I visit annually at least in both) it would be fairly apparent why they voted to leave. They are still unsure as to what will happen but they know it can't be much worse than what has happened to their areas over the last 40 years.
Much like the rust belt in the US.

20silkcut

Grueller wrote: »

My reading is that the leave supporters are much like Trump supporters, they have nothing to lose.
The media is calling for remain as it is controlled by the middle and upper classes. They have loads to lose.
If you have ever been to Sunderland or Stoke (I have relations that I visit annually at least in both) it would be fairly apparent why they voted to leave. They are still unsure as to what will happen but they know it can't be much worse than what has happened to their areas over the last 40 years.
Much like the rust belt in the US.

Yes true the last 50 years have been economic apocalypse for those areas brexit warnings ring fairly hollow to them.
And to have the chance to keep out foreigners of course they were going to vote leave and if the referendum was held 100 times they would do the same.
But surely that is a shrinking demographic. Britain is a far larger country now than it was 50 years ago or at the height of its empire. All the major cities London, Manchester, Birmingham etc are double and triple the size they were 100 years ago. The trouble was the brits could not populate themselves fast enough to keep up with the growth. Britain has benefited immensely from globalization and EU membership far more than we have or ever will.
The British aristocracy stand to lose a lot.
Some of them are getting eye watering single payments.
If the House of Lords had the same power it had 100 years ago brexit would never happen.

Bass Reeves

greenfield21 wrote: »

I would love to see another vote, just to see the remainers faces when Britain votes to leave again. Its mad that support is still only in the fifties for remain with all the media hatred for leave. Look how well the British economy is doing and they would probably still leave now, with a little help from farage and Boris like last time I have no doubt leave would win again. Those two could be past it though.

Grueller wrote: »

My reading is that the leave supporters are much like Trump supporters, they have nothing to lose.
The media is calling for remain as it is controlled by the middle and upper classes. They have loads to lose.
If you have ever been to Sunderland or Stoke (I have relations that I visit annually at least in both) it would be fairly apparent why they voted to leave. They are still unsure as to what will happen but they know it can't be much worse than what has happened to their areas over the last 40 years.
Much like the rust belt in the US.

British media is mostly pro leave.You should just listen to Sky and the BBC in general. Rupert Murdock owns most of the British media and is a Bresiteer. Only 2-3 British newspapers are pro remain only one redtop is pro remain. I think too many mix up Irish coverage with UK coverage

ganmo

greenfield21 wrote: »

I would love to see another vote, just to see the remainers faces when Britain votes to leave again. Its mad that support is still only in the fifties for remain with all the media hatred for leave. Look how well the British economy is doing and they would probably still leave now, with a little help from farage and Boris like last time I have no doubt leave would win again. Those two could be past it though.

its still in the EU...you'll have to wait till this time next year before you'll see the full effects of leaving the EU

Siamsa Sessions

Just happened to see BBC Northern Ireland news and they were reporting from the Labour (British one) conference. Very much angled towards there being a 2nd vote: Labour members left it open as to whether they’d call for another vote, etc.

I’d agree with the earlier comments - those who voted Leave would probably vote Leave again in a 2nd vote.

Could be the same for Trump voters in USA. The Donald might be a 2-term president.

Interesting idea from the author Nicholas Taleb (Black Swan, Skin in the Game) who said watching TV debates with the sound off gives a better idea of who’s winning. Must try this the next time I have the misfortune to see a Brexit debate on the telly

alps

A look at how borders operate just coming in prime time...

Remember them?

Base price

alps wrote: »

A look at how borders operate just coming in prime time...

Remember them?

Trying to find parking up the hill at Newry. Waiting for hours at Begans Carrickarnon and getting given out too by C&E cause there was staples in the paperwork instead of pins.

Delivering bottles of spirits and crates of beer at Christmas to keep the powers that be sweet

vincenzolorenzo

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

Could be the same for Trump voters in USA. The Donald might be a 2-term president.

I'd say its almost a certainty he'll be back in. The man is a complete chump but the American economy is doing better than when he came in and he appeals to a huge swathe of society. And lets face it there's been plenty of gaffes/scandals that would have sunk anyone's political career and he grows stronger out of it :eek:

Neddyusa

_Brian wrote: »

In lots of ways there’s a huge similarity to the Y2K hype going on.

Nobody knows what is going to happen so people are rolling out all sorts of doomsday scenarios.

The one thing beauracrats are great for is holding out right to the end and then a fudge is rolled out that makes everyone look like they achieved what they wanted while only making small concessions to the other side.

The U.K. will be grand either way, chances the average joe soap on the street will see no deference either way.

Farmers planning for Brexit is like saying we should have been planning for the trade war between USA and Turkey that is having such a serious effect on cattle at the moment, there is so little you can do.

If nothing else the Brits can just do what USA and EU did during the current recession and quantitative ease their way out of any trouble, yes it’s kicking the can down the road, but to a lesser or greater extent that’s what all large western nations do. Issue a 30-40 year bond in the hopes it will be sorted by then, and if not issue another bigger bond to cover the house again.

I think for our own perspective there will be export refunds or intervention measures to cover us to some extent.

Im shocked there has been no work in developing more deep sea port capacity in either Rosslare or Cork, it’s something I think the current government are being complacent on. We should have shelved all but essential infrastructure development and started a plan to make ourselves more resilient on getting goods in and out without the U.K., as it stands it’s a huge bargaining chip for the U.K. and even the EU should be pushing us to get alternative plans in place. Maybe we have the capacity but I’ve read that we would need to double at least our shipping capacity.

Totally agree on the fudge outcome Brian.
Both sides have too much to lose not to agree.
There will be some fancy new name or Acronym invented for it and the Brits will tell their people its Brexit, and the EU will tell us its not Brexit!
At least I hope that's what they have the cop-on to do.
Otherwise it's very bad news for Ireland, but as you say - just as easy for the Irish farmer to plan for as the Y2K bug

Eamonn8448

does anybody actually reckon it will be a good thing? in my side of things - veg i cant see it been too bad- less competition , well maybe machinery and parts but theres always holland and the rest of the eu. maybe its about time we actually use the eu and not depend on good old blighty - the markets have to be out there

Siamsa Sessions

Eamonn8448 wrote: »

does anybody actually reckon it will be a good thing? in my side of things - veg i cant see it been too bad- less competition , well maybe machinery and parts but theres always holland and the rest of the eu. maybe its about time we actually use the eu and not depend on good old blighty - the markets have to be out there

What you’re talking about is the Irish middle-class Establishment (civil servants, politicians, business owners, etc) having to finally deal with the ex-boss not being around any more.

Dickie10

what do people think of the sheep industry and lamb trade in a post hard Brexit era?

ganmo

Dickie10 wrote: »

what do people think of the sheep industry and lamb trade in a post hard Brexit era?

there'll be no live imports which will be a +
uk exports to the continent will take a hit +
sterling is likely to dive -
there are other side effects but they'd be the main ones

Dickie10

so thats sounds quite positive on the whole. does that mean that northern lambs cant come to the republic to be slaughtered? that would take some amount of lambs out of the system

Siamsa Sessions

Dickie10 wrote: »

so thats sounds quite positive on the whole. does that mean that northern lambs cant come to the republic to be slaughtered? that would take some amount of lambs out of the system

That's assuming a hard Brexit and reinstatement of a north-south border, which may or may not come to pass.

I'd be happy if the processors here stopped bringing in truckloads of lambs on the ferry from the UK. But then Wrangler on here says this could mean one of the processors goes out of business, and that wouldn't do much for competition among processors (if there is much anyway!)

Base price

Came across this short film from Stephen Rea about Brexit and the border.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cZe2ihEZO8

ganmo

Dickie10 wrote: »

so thats sounds quite positive on the whole. does that mean that northern lambs cant come to the republic to be slaughtered? that would take some amount of lambs out of the system

it depends on how big those +/- are.

the hard border means there'll be paperwork, delays and duties for it to be done right...but when did those in bandit country ever let that stop them

Dickie10

would they really go out of business? really the diffference between beef and sheep is that quantity and supply is too much in beef and there isnt a supply or oversupply in sheep?

ganmo

Dickie10 wrote: »

would they really go out of business? really the diffference between beef and sheep is that quantity and supply is too much in beef and there isnt a supply or oversupply in sheep?

i don't think he means one of the companies will shutdown, more like one of the factories will close eg icm navan with camolin staying open

AntrimGlens

ganmo wrote: »

i don't think he means one of the companies will shutdown, more like one of the factories will close eg icm navan with camolin staying open

The northern lambs are probably sustaining the kill lines in several plants, if you take the half a million lambs that leave the north and are killed in the south out of the equation, i don't think the lines will be running at full capacity. I reckon you could see lines going down to 3 day weeks or such as they wouldn't be able to source sufficient lambs to operate 5 days /wk.
Maybe i'm way wrong on this though...

Dickie10

maybe they would also have to pay more for them

Shauny2010

Seems to be a lot of people who think Brexit is next March. Brexit begins next March but nothing changes on the day, theirs a 2 year transition period after that so even in a no deal Brexit their will be still plenty time to do deals

ganmo

Shauny2010 wrote: »

Seems to be a lot of people who think Brexit is next March. Brexit begins next March but nothing changes on the day, theirs a 2 year transition period after that so even in a no deal Brexit their will be still plenty time to do deals

after 11pm 29th march the uk will no longer be an EU member.

IF an agreement is reached there will be a 2 year transition.

at the minute the deadline for agreement is the middle of December.

it all depends on how big that if is