bad time to buy

Lantus

So with the severe economic uncertainty that is brexit going to realise possibly 40,000 job losses and many sectors under tremendous pressure is this really a good time to buy? We are almost certainly approaching (at) a peak boom in house prices so buying pre brexit is highly risky unless you have certainty of job security. Even if you have job security, smart money says hold off and get a house at least 20% cheaper in a few years time. What do people think?

Graham

Lantus wrote: »

So with the severe economic uncertainty that is brexit going to realise possibly 40,000 job losses and many sectors under tremendous pressure is this really a good time to buy? We are almost certainly approaching (at) a peak boom in house prices so buying pre brexit is highly risky unless you have certainty of job security. Even if you have job security, smart money says hold off and get a house at least 20% cheaper in a few years time. What do people think?

Is Brexit somehow going to increase the supply of houses to the Irish market thereby satisfying much of the demand that is driving up prices?

handlemaster

Hold off and pay. How much rent ?

Samuel T. Cogley

The only bad time to buy is the time you buy unsuitable housing. Get something that you can live in for at least 20 years and will adapt to changing circumstances it doesn't really matter when you buy.

Also have you seen how hard it is to repossess? It hard to evict but nothing compared to repossessions and no bank want to repossess in a trough if they can help it.

Glen_Quagmire

Samuel T. Cogley wrote:

The only bad time to buy is the time you buy unsuitable housing. Get something that you can live in for at least 20 years and will adapt to changing circumstances it doesn't really matter when you buy.

I agree that you should buy something you intend to live in for many years but I don't agree that it doesn't matter when you buy.

Someone who bought a house in 2013 would have paid considerably less than someone buying that same house in 2017 and hence have less of a mortgage and payments every month and therefore have more disposable income.

zl1whqvjs75cdy

It's a bad time to rent too so don't buy or rent?

quadrifoglio verde

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

I agree that you should buy something you intend to live in for many years but I don't agree that it doesn't matter when you buy.

Someone who bought a house in 2013 would have paid considerably less than someone buying that same house in 2017 and hence have less of a mortgage and payments every month and therefore have more disposable income.

Someone who bought in 2017 may have been ineligible to buy in 2013.

Just like many who at 25 could have got a 100% tracker mortgage in 2006, could get a mortgage in 2011 when prices were on the floor and now can't get a mortgage at 36.

There is nothing wrong with buying a property that you can potentially live in for 20 years. Buying a 1 bed apartment most likely ain't one of them.
Buying a 3 bed house is

SteM

Lantus wrote: »

So with the severe economic uncertainty that is brexit going to realise possibly 40,000 job losses and many sectors under tremendous pressure is this really a good time to buy? We are almost certainly approaching (at) a peak boom in house prices so buying pre brexit is highly risky unless you have certainty of job security. Even if you have job security, smart money says hold off and get a house at least 20% cheaper in a few years time. What do people think?

As someone said, how much will you pay in rent over the 2 years. Also, it's more difficult to get a mortgage during market troughs imo.

Glen_Quagmire

I understand what you're saying and maybe 4 years is too much of a span for this example. However a colleague of mine told me he bought a new 3 bed semi detached and a few months later a 4 bed detached on the same road sold for 60k less than he paid so for him that was certainly a bad time to buy as if he held off a few months he'd have paid less for his house.

I understand hindsight is wonderful and the market cannot be predicted but there are definitely good and bad times to buy as a lot of people have experienced over the last few years.

Taylor365

Buy high and sell low!



That's the motto

Samuel T. Cogley

Glen_Quagmire wrote: »

I agree that you should buy something you intend to live in for many years but I don't agree that it doesn't matter when you buy.

Someone who bought a house in 2013 would have paid considerably less than someone buying that same house in 2017 and hence have less of a mortgage and payments every month and therefore have more disposable income.

It's a semantic argument to a degree but hey it's boards :pac:

I'd say that's a good time to buy not a bad one. The problem is with the depths of a valley in the market is there is feck all for sale. So yes 2013 was better than 2017 and 2011 was better than 2013. The very best time to buy is a canny purchase in the upswing, or a gem at the bottom but good luck with the latter!

The OP is addressing bad times though - and lets say Brexit lays waste to Ireland (God forbid) if he's got a mortgage and in he'll be thanking his lucky stars as he'll have bugger all chance of getting a mortgage with no job or very little chance of a mortgage if no one is lending. If he's buying cash then meh, fair enough - work out what you think the down turn will be and see if pay rent until then pans out. That's a bigger gamble though IMHO.

DubCount

Lantus wrote: »

So with the severe economic uncertainty that is brexit going to realise possibly 40,000 job losses and many sectors under tremendous pressure is this really a good time to buy? We are almost certainly approaching (at) a peak boom in house prices so buying pre brexit is highly risky unless you have certainty of job security. Even if you have job security, smart money says hold off and get a house at least 20% cheaper in a few years time. What do people think?

Unfortunately, you cant be certain what is going to happen to the property market in general. Its even harder to know what is going to happen to property prices in a particular area or on a particular road. You may believe there is a 20% drop coming. Someone else may believe prices could go up by 20%. Nobody really knows. Brexit is one issue. Bank rules on lending, interest rates, growth rates, corporate tax rates in the USA, Exchange rates. There are lots of factors that will drive the market. Remember if you laid all the economists in the world end to end you would never reach a conclusion.

Property purchase is a long term investment. The suitability of the property for your long term needs, your ability to service the mortgage debt - these are the matters which are important imho. In the next 25 years, prices will go up and down and new issues will become more important than Brexit.

EmoCourt

If you're waiting for smooth waters in the world economy you'll be waiting a long time. Since starting work in '99 i can remember the Russian debt default, the dot com bubble bursting, 9/11, the Iraq and Afghan wars, the bank bailouts, the Irish recession, Brexit and lots of other crisis in the headlines.

If you want a house and are confident you'll be able to make the repayments, go and buy.

thierry14

It's a bad time to.buy if you intend to sell in 2 or 3 years as we are approaching peak prices imo

Look at the people that got burned in 06 buying apartments in Grand Canal for example

Bought for 600k in 06, worth 150k in 2010, but now back to 600k in 2017

If you buy today a similar scenario will probably happen, but there will be a time in the future when your property is worth more than it is now, so I wouldnt worry about something out of your control if your buying to live in with family etc

Buying to invest would be foolish now, the big gains have passed

stefanovich

Lantus wrote:

So with the severe economic uncertainty that is brexit going to realise possibly 40,000 job losses and many sectors under tremendous pressure is this really a good time to buy? We are almost certainly approaching (at) a peak boom in house prices so buying pre brexit is highly risky unless you have certainty of job security. Even if you have job security, smart money says hold off and get a house at least 20% cheaper in a few years time. What do people think?

I think you are just trying to discourage the competition.

MOH

Buy a house that you want to buy and live in and that you can afford, and that suits you to buy at the time you buy it.

After that stop worrying about 'what ifs' and hindsight and what the house down the road is selling for - you've made your decision based on the information at the time, it's all irrelevant now.

Samuel T. Cogley

stefanovich wrote: »

I think you are just trying to discourage the competition.

Don't knock it I think I've added at least 5% to the house prices in Kilbarrack with my PR campaign on boards! :pac:

wordofwarning

Look at this way. There is such a pent up demand, even if 60k people loss their jobs over Brexit. How many former workers in the UK, will be moved over here anyway? A lot of the Big 4 in the UK, have had Irish people turn to Ireland. Irish Banks in London, may start returning to Ireland. The likes of the IT companies may start moving some of their staff from London to Dublin.

The only bad time to buy is when cheap is a free for all and houses are being built like no tomorrow with no rational increases in prices. Our prices rational now? Well the yield on BTLs is still insane and an apartment that is cheaper to buy than build seems like buying now is a good indicator that prices won't get lower.

Prices crashed so hard, as our banks went bust and our housing stock had a massive glut. If prices dropped 20% tomorrow, banks could whether it

Graham

wordofwarning wrote: »

Well the yield on BTLs is still insane and an apartment that is cheaper to buy than build seems like buying now is a good indicator that prices won't get lower.

Where are these apartment opportunities with the insane yields?

wordofwarning

Graham wrote: »

Where are these apartment opportunities with the insane yields?

You can buy apartments in Ballymun/Santry with yields of 10-15% yield. It is Ballymum, so no one wants to buy there.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/apt-100-the-gateway-block-g-ballymun-road-ballymun-dublin-9/385253

This one is €125k and you would easily rent it at €1500/1650 or more per month considering it so close to DCU

Graham

wordofwarning wrote: »

You can buy apartments in Ballymun/Santry with yields of 10-15% yield. It is Ballymum, so no one wants to buy there.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/apt-100-the-gateway-block-g-ballymun-road-ballymun-dublin-9/385253

This one is €125k and you would easily rent it at €1500/1650 or more per month considering it so close to DCU

Good yields in one historically less-desireable part of Dublin is not generally representative of insane yields across the market.

davo10

According to the last word and the financial editor of the Independent, Charlie Weston, there are twice as many first time mortgage approvals than there are properties for sale in the country and that doesn't include cash buyers or "trading uppers", so with that lack of properties, who knows.

Glen_Quagmire

davo10 wrote:

According to the last word and the financial editor of the Independent, Charlie Weston, there are twice as many first time mortgage approvals than there are properties for sale in the country and that doesn't include cash buyers or "trading uppers", so with that lack of properties, who knows.

I hope to f*ck that's not true

Taylor365

wordofwarning wrote: »

You can buy apartments in Ballymun/Santry with yields of 10-15% yield. It is Ballymum, so no one wants to buy there.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/apt-100-the-gateway-block-g-ballymun-road-ballymun-dublin-9/385253

This one is €125k and you would easily rent it at €1500/1650 or more per month considering it so close to DCU

Hour and a half later and its gone!


:pac: