Ireland Team Talk/Gossip/Rumour Thread VIII - ** MOD NOTE POST #4781 **

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

He can do it, but he isn't guaranteed his spot in a first choice Ireland 23. For that matter, I'm not sure where POM would stand if Sean O'Brien and VDF were fit.

All fit I think only SOB would be guaranteed a place in an Ireland back row and I reckon Stander is the next most 'locked in' player in that category. It's why I think we're possibly unlikely to see a captain selected from the back row.

I think the Australia tour is good opportunity for Ireland to both mature our depth but also put a marker down just over a year out from the RWC cup. Part of developing our depth is developing the decision making and leadership qualities of those players hence a shake up of the captaincy. As someone else said, I'd be tempted to leave Best at home. I'd almost leave Sexton at home but if he starts one and benches one that should be fine.

Worth bearing in mind that Ireland have won its 3rd Championship when POM has been the starting blindside. He was injured or on the bench for the 2 championships that England won (bar the last game when he started v. England which Ireland won).

As well as that, Ireland haven't lost a game since he has been starting in last year's Six Nations.

So, in short, I think he is a nailed on starter for the foreseeable future.

Edit: for comparision - POM has 64% win rate with Ireland. SOB has 54%.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

James Ryan should captain the Ireland tour to Australia this summer.

Discuss.

My thoughts:
Warburton made captain at a similar age (22).
Ryan is potentially first choice in his position, is likely to consolidate that moving forward.
A tour captain alternative to Best would be worth bedding in before the World Cup just in case.
There isn't as much competition in the second row as there is in the back row.

I'm obviously fairly biased on this one so keen to hear other people's thoughts.

He's going so well that I wouldn't want to risk any interruptions to that. He will be captain, but not yet.

POM could well be captain for a while if he stays injury free.

aloooof

What about Conor Murray as potential tour captain?

RoundBox11

jm08 wrote: »

Worth bearing in mind that Ireland have won its 3rd Championship when POM has been the starting blindside. He was injured or on the bench for the 2 championships that England won (bar the last game when he started v. England which Ireland won).

As well as that, Ireland haven't lost a game since he has been starting in last year's Six Nations.

So, in short, I think he is a nailed on starter for the foreseeable future.

I think there are a lot of people who would disagree with you there. Correlation doesn't equal causation.

Ireland have done very well with Ruddock and with VDF too.

irelandrover

aloooof wrote: »

What about Conor Murray as potential tour captain?

Id hope that sexton and murray are both left at home for the tour.

thomond2006

irelandrover wrote: »

Id hope that sexton and murray are both left at home for the tour.

They are the key players in the team. If they are available they should travel. I wouldn't have them starting every game mind. The same goes for Kearney.

If Niall Scannell is fit and in form then I'd look to get him at least two starts. Ireland badly need competition at hooker.

Burkie1203

jm08 wrote: »

Think how many he would have scored if Zebo was fullback :pac:

9?

Buer

jm08 wrote: »

Worth bearing in mind that Ireland have won its 3rd Championship when POM has been the starting blindside. He was injured or on the bench for the 2 championships that England won (bar the last game when he started v. England which Ireland won).

As well as that, Ireland haven't lost a game since he has been starting in last year's Six Nations.

So, in short, I think he is a nailed on starter for the foreseeable future.

Edit: for comparision - POM has 64% win rate with Ireland. SOB has 54%.

Ireland beat NZ with flankers of Stander, Murphy and VDF. Therefore, they are the best flankers in the world.

thomond2006

I thought QB win stats were bad enough in the NFL. Flanker win stats in rugby? Good grief.

jm08

RoundBox11 wrote: »

I think there are a lot of people who would disagree with you there. Correlation doesn't equal causation.

Ireland have done very well with Ruddock and with VDF too.

Of course they have. But whatever reason, Ruddock has 19 caps (8 starting - 3 of those against USA & Japan). POM has 47 (starting 40).

VDF is an openside.

Awesomeness

After beating Scotland we are now the Raeburn shield(hypothetical world title) holder again

http://www.raeburnshield.com/

PMC83

Just after Cronins try on Saturday he was pointing at the ground, any idea what eh was getting at?

Burkie1203

jm08 wrote: »

Of course they have. But whatever reason, Ruddock has 19 caps (8 starting - 3 of those against USA & Japan). POM has 47 (starting 40).

VDF is an openside.

All of which is irrelevant. We win the 6n because we have the best squad, great depth, an outstanding coach and really smart play.

The only performance over the entire 6n that concerns me is Rory Best because N Scannell has been injured.

We have had 3 outside centres, lost our best 7 beforehand and then his replacement in game 1 yet still kept winning.

Riskymove

Burkie1203 wrote: »

9?

nah a few more given he'd get a pass or two :rolleyes:

aloooof

Given the injury turnover and general inexperience some of the players, if we do win the Slam on Saturday I'd rate it as a greater achievement than 2009. Can't remember that many injures from 09?

jm08

Buer wrote: »

Ireland beat NZ with flankers of Stander, Murphy and VDF. Therefore, they are the best flankers in the world.

None of those are starting blindsides for their provinces (although CJ filled in there when POM was out injured).

Burkie1203

aloooof wrote: »

Given the injury turnover and general inexperience some of the players, if we do win the Slam on Saturday I'd rate it as a greater achievement than 2009. Can't remember that many injures from 09?

Our main injury in 2009 was Ferris in the last game. I can't recall any other front line player getting injured.

Buer

aloooof wrote: »

Given the injury turnover and general inexperience some of the players, if we do win the Slam on Saturday I'd rate it as a greater achievement than 2009. Can't remember that many injures from 09?

We only made one change to our 23 between the first and last game of the 2009 6N which was through choice when MOK was dropped for MOD on the bench (for poor discipline, I vaguely recall).

MJohnston

aloooof wrote: »

Given the injury turnover and general inexperience some of the players, if we do win the Slam on Saturday I'd rate it as a greater achievement than 2009. Can't remember that many injures from 09?

Even without the injuries it would be a better achievement - 2009 was England and France at home, and we kinda just scraped a few wins out - it felt like a large part of it all was luck (which is why it was so exciting). This year has been much more of a controlled set of performances, we're a bit more dominant and not just relying on luck. Plus we had to beat France in Paris, and we'll have to beat England in Twickenham. A very difficult task!

aloooof

jm08 wrote: »

None of those are starting blindsides for their provinces (although CJ filled in there when POM was out injured).

I'd wager CJ's first 10 or so Irish caps were all at blindside if I recall correctly. He's perfectly capable of playing there.

jm08

Burkie1203 wrote: »

All of which is irrelevant. We win the 6n because we have the best squad, great depth, an outstanding coach and really smart play.

The only performance over the entire 6n that concerns me is Rory Best because N Scannell has been injured.

We have had 3 outside centres, lost our best 7 beforehand and then his replacement in game 1 yet still kept winning.

As irrelevant as this post:

''For that matter, I'm not sure where POM would stand if Sean O'Brien and VDF were fit.''

Sean O'Brien is not going to be moved away from 7 - even Gatland shifted Warburton to 6 on the lions to accommodate him there.

Buer

jm08 wrote: »

None of those are starting blindsides for their provinces (although CJ filled in there when POM was out injured).

Guess where the majority of Dan Leavy's starts for Leinster in the past two seasons have been....

PTH2009

looking here https://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2018/0311/946680-ten-years-of-ireland-v-england-in-the-six-nations/

our record over in Twic is not great at all the last 10 years, 1 win out of 6 and some big defeats

15 March 2008- England 33- Ireland 10
27 Feb 2010- Engalnd 16- Ireland 20
17 March 2012- England 30- Ireland 9
22 Feb 2014- England 13- Ireland 10
5 Sep 2015- England 21- Ireland 13 (World Cup warm up game)
27 Feb 2016- England 21- Ireland 10

jm08

aloooof wrote: »

I'd wager CJ's first 10 or so Irish caps were all at blindside if I recall correctly. He's perfectly capable of playing there.

He is well capable of it. He played his first 10 caps at blindside (that would be the last 2 six nations which Ireland didn't do too well at losing to Scotland, France, Wales & England.

jm08

Buer wrote: »

Guess where the majority of Dan Leavy's starts for Leinster in the past two seasons have been....

And when Ruddock is fit, where does he play?

He seems to play across the backrow with a few starts at 8 as well. Ideal bench material if SOB is fit.

Podge_irl

PTH2009 wrote: »

looking here https://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2018/0311/946680-ten-years-of-ireland-v-england-in-the-six-nations/

our record over in Twic is not great at all the last 10 years, 1 win out of 6 and some big defeats

15 March 2008- England 33- Ireland 10
27 Feb 2010- Engalnd 16- Ireland 20
17 March 2012- England 30- Ireland 9
22 Feb 2014- England 13- Ireland 10
5 Sep 2015- England 21- Ireland 13 (World Cup warm up game)
27 Feb 2016- England 21- Ireland 10

World cup warm up game is irrelevant. The 2010 match was also the 3rd time in 4 attempts we won at Twickenham. So we are actually 3 out of 7 in relevant matches there.

Course lies, damn lies and statistics and all that.

PTH2009

PTH2009 wrote: »

looking here https://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/2018/0311/946680-ten-years-of-ireland-v-england-in-the-six-nations/

our record over in Twic is not great at all the last 10 years, 1 win out of 6 and some big defeats

15 March 2008- England 33- Ireland 10
27 Feb 2010- Engalnd 16- Ireland 20
17 March 2012- England 30- Ireland 9
22 Feb 2014- England 13- Ireland 10
5 Sep 2015- England 21- Ireland 13 (World Cup warm up game)
27 Feb 2016- England 21- Ireland 10

The two bolded results are probably the only two I would consider relevant to assessing our challenge this weekend. The RWC warm up game would have less direct relevance for me also given the context.

The previous results certainly paint a picture of the difficulty of the fixture however.

Regardless in 2014 England got one good chance to score when Brown broke and put care away and that was the game. 2016 was peak England against a heavily revised Ireland in a championship where Schmidt predicted 3rd place from the outset.

In many ways this is the reversal of the norm. How many times have England come to Ireland needing a win for the slam and now it's us knocking on their door.

I almost hope we line up on the wrong side and refuse to move.

aloooof

Deleted User wrote: »

I almost hope we line up on the wrong side and refuse to move.

:pac:

aloooof

jm08 wrote: »

He is well capable of it. He played his first 10 caps at blindside (that would be the last 2 six nations which Ireland didn't do too well at losing to Scotland, France, Wales & England.

Fair enough, but I still think drawing conclusions from match results based on one player in one position is overly simplistic.

prawnsambo

aloooof wrote: »

Fair enough, but I still think drawing conclusions from match results based on one player in one position is overly simplistic.

The magical influence of the number 6 shirt on the outcome of a game can't be overstressed.

jm08

jm08 wrote: »

Worth bearing in mind that Ireland have won its 3rd Championship when POM has been the starting blindside. He was injured or on the bench for the 2 championships that England won (bar the last game when he started v. England which Ireland won).

As well as that, Ireland haven't lost a game since he has been starting in last year's Six Nations.

So, in short, I think he is a nailed on starter for the foreseeable future.

Edit: for comparision - POM has 64% win rate with Ireland. SOB has 54%.

It was POM losing the lions captaincy that lead them to pull the series out of the fire and find a draw. We can all twist some stats.

irishbucsfan

jm08 wrote: »

And when Ruddock is fit, where does he play?

He seems to play across the backrow with a few starts at 8 as well. Ideal bench material if SOB is fit.

6

He plays at 6.

jm08

irishbucsfan wrote: »

6

He plays at 6.

In PRO 12/14 starts for Leinster:
No. 6 - 9 times
No. 7 - 12 times
No. 8 - 3 times

In his 3 Champs Cup starts (out of 10 appearances):
2 @ 6 and 1 @ 7.

His 7 starts in the B&I Cup was @7.

This season in the Champs Cup, out of 4 games, he has had 1 start v. Montpelier @ 6.

jm08

Deleted User wrote: »

It was POM losing the lions captaincy that lead them to pull the series out of the fire and find a draw. We can all twist some stats.

The Lions won the 2nd game when POM was dropped.;)

prawnsambo

jm08 wrote: »

In PRO 12/14 starts for Leinster:
No. 6 - 9 times
No. 7 - 12 times
No. 8 - 3 times

In his 3 Champs Cup starts (out of 10 appearances):
2 @ 6 and 1 @ 7.

His 7 starts in the B&I Cup was @7.

This season in the Champs Cup, out of 4 games, he has had 1 start v. Montpelier @ 6.

You're talking about Leinster. Who have so many back rows, they play musical chairs at selection time. Leo calls the music and Stu pulls the chairs away.

irishbucsfan

jm08 wrote: »

In PRO 12/14 starts for Leinster:
No. 6 - 9 times
No. 7 - 12 times
No. 8 - 3 times

In his 3 Champs Cup starts (out of 10 appearances):
2 @ 6 and 1 @ 7.

His 7 starts in the B&I Cup was @7.

This season in the Champs Cup, out of 4 games, he has had 1 start v. Montpelier @ 6.

Rhys Ruddock?

Where are you getting these numbers?

According to leinsterrugby.ie: Over the past 3 seasons...

Starts at 6: 34
Starts at 7: 0
Starts at 8: 4

I feel like I must be going crazy or I'm completely wrong as to what we're talking about!

Zzippy

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