Why "demand" for hosing will not prevent another property crash.

Idbatterim

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

As promised, just following up on this post. IMO this is a valid bump to this thread, as it's clear that demand for housing has increased and prices have followed. We have a supply-side issue in Ireland causing an increase in the mean reversion price; it follows that the premise of this thread is flawed, as we would need a credit issue at the moment to actually crash this property market.

National index is still 25% lower than peak 2007. I don't see a bubble here yet.

I think the november comment was a joke. As if anyone could call the month and I think that's what the poster was making mockery of...

There is the bubble question. But in terms of affordability, I'm assuming housing in Dublin has never been less affordable ?

CIARAN_BOYLE

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

We actually don't have any of the economic indicators of a bubble and the above two posts actually indicate why there isn't a likely bubble rather than vice versa. We have limited supply reducing the number of people entering into the market, we have comparatively high interest rates (double the EU average rate), we have difficult access to credit and limited mispricing of risk due to the minimum requirements for deposits and, most importantly, we do not have a sudden and high increase in prices.

Agreed that was my point. Any housing crash will be symptomatic of an economic crash rather than having got to do with housing.

Chips Lovell

OP has been banned since starting that thread and won't be able to respond to posts directed at them.

jimmycrackcorm

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I've said it before and I will say it again. A hard Brexit is the most likely near term cause of a housing crash.

One thing to note is that during the recession more people moved home with families or into shared accommodation due to lack of money. These people now want their own property driving the how high boom. There is not enough stock and the occupancy of property has fallen by approx .4 a unit (half remembered statistic on a radio show, I can't support this sorry) since 2010.

For a crash to happen we need tot and this demand out by removing the extra funds and forcing people to move back in with their families. The best way to do this is to cause a general economic crash. The most likely cause of this is a hard Brexit.

It was interesting to note that exports to Britain rose in the first half of 2017 increasing our dependence on that market.

A hard Brexit might actually have a positive effect on housing. It will reduce demand but as supply is likely to be still short, all it might do is stymie price rises and make housing affordable for many people who are not as dependent on Brexit exports.

FreudianSlippers

I don't see how Brexit would reduce demand?