WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

tritium

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

the only way this happens is if willy is alive and protects valeyard as their was no kill?

No it also happens if someone else was nelson and got turned

tritium

tritium wrote: »

No it also happens if someone else was nelson and got turned

Not saying that happened btw just that its possible

quickbeam

Digital Solitude wrote: »

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown
partyjungle - possibly Apu
sKeith - f?ck knows
The_Valeyard - evil Nelson
y0ssar1an22 - unknown


So there's 5 baddies from 7 here, is that what we're running with? Or 4 from 6 without Vale, and 4 from 5 if PJ is legit.

If PJs legit, I'm the other villager. I'm an NRV, happy to call my role if wanted.

If PJs not legit, I think that Jay and I are the two villagers. Complete turnaround from yesterday on Jay but I have a hunch.

I'd be interested to hear your hunch. Because tbh, if we're not going for the guaranteed wolf kill in Vale, and instead trying to take out a team, Jay's probably who I'd go for.

(I'm still undecided on whether the guarantee wolf or team wipeout is the way to go, tbh).

raze_them_all_

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Or one of the unknowns was Nelson and was turned last night. We don't know that the evils tried to much Vale.

I think Vale is Nelson though

As i said I believe willie is dead, that means only nelson is an option and i think vales early claim, hints and play since the no kill today confirms he is nelson. He played for the village when good, since then he's just posting memes much like previous wolves have done

raze_them_all_

quickbeam wrote: »

I'd be interested to hear your hunch. Because tbh, if we're not going for the guaranteed wolf kill in Vale, and instead trying to take out a team, Jay's probably who I'd go for.

(I'm still undecided on whether the guarantee wolf or team wipeout is the way to go, tbh).

I would suggest the wolf purely on this reasoning.


If we swing and miss we are in the same situation tomorrow but at least 2-4 villagers gone with no wolves, which means we have to lynch vale tomorrow which means 3 teams still exist, but if we kill vale we'd practically be guaranteed a team wipe if it's 2-2 as we would be unlucky to kill vale and miss his partner/bob tomorrow


where as if we leave vale and and go for a kill, we miss and hit a villager, that means (providing no wolf/sk killing each other) there is still 3 teams and kills the morning after

The_Valeyard

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

As i said I believe willie is dead, that means only nelson is an option and i think vales early claim, hints and play since the no kill today confirms he is nelson. He played for the village when good, since then he's just posting memes much like previous wolves have done

I've always posted memes

Digital Solitude

quickbeam wrote: »

I'd be interested to hear your hunch. Because tbh, if we're not going for the guaranteed wolf kill in Vale, and instead trying to take out a team, Jay's probably who I'd go for.

(I'm still undecided on whether the guarantee wolf or team wipeout is the way to go, tbh).

I've a slight hunch he's the Judge, hence his weird reaction to the FFA, as you pointed out. He claims he knows he won't be lynched until Friday, which is what started it for me.

Now if there's 5 wolves in the other 6 unknowns, I'd put my money on PJ being the good guy, Jayops lack of contribution means I trust PJ more.

I'm going to do some maths re: Vale or hope we get Bob

The_Valeyard

Digital Solitude wrote: »

I've a slight hunch he's the Judge, hence his weird reaction to the FFA, as you pointed out. He claims he knows he won't be lynched until Friday, which is what started it for me.

Now if there's 5 wolves in the other 6 unknowns, I'd put my money on PJ being the good guy, Jayops lack of contribution means I trust PJ more.

I'm going to do some maths re: Vale or hope we get Bob

I like math.

Digital Solitude

Wait, should there not have been only 2 kills last night?

Three kills and a Nelson turn means one team got two shots, a kill and Nelson.

A Neurotic

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Wait, should there not have been only 2 kills last night?

Three kills and a Nelson turn means one team got two shots, a kill and Nelson.

One of the deaths was Barney passing away 24h after Moe.

quickbeam

Digital Solitude wrote: »

I've a slight hunch he's the Judge, hence his weird reaction to the FFA, as you pointed out. He claims he knows he won't be lynched until Friday, which is what started it for me.

Now if there's 5 wolves in the other 6 unknowns, I'd put my money on PJ being the good guy, Jayops lack of contribution means I trust PJ more.

I'm going to do some maths re: Vale or hope we get Bob

I'd a hunch it was you - the only one of the unknowns to vote for the lynchee both the last two nights - a result that was approved by the Judge. That's what I was hinting at with the below.

quickbeam wrote: »

One thing I noticed about Digi - whether it means anything or not, I'm not sure: he's the only one of the unknowns to have voted for both Kolido and Petr.

But the "Friday" comment from Jay is worth noting. Thanks for reminding me.

raze_them_all_

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Wait, should there not have been only 2 kills last night?

Three kills and a Nelson turn means one team got two shots, a kill and Nelson.

barney drank himself to death since moe wasnt there to fight him away from drinking all the booze

Barney92

If it's 4 from 5, assuming party is legit and not counting Vale, then something doesn't add up digital. If you're an nrv, then jayop can't be the judge without there being a liar somewhere. It would be 4 evil from 3 unknowns.

Digital Solitude

I'll can't do this maths on my phone, I think Vale needs to go though, gives us an extra day of sussing out the other wolves.

Digital Solitude

Forgot about Barney killing himself, didn't cop that from the story.

Barney92 wrote: »

If it's 4 from 5, assuming party is legit and not counting Vale, then something doesn't add up digital. If you're an nrv, then jayop can't be the judge without there being a liar somewhere. It would be 4 evil from 3 unknowns.

I know, I said if PJs legit its not Jay, if its Jay then PJ is lying. That's why it was a weak hunch, and I'd have backed PJ.

quickbeam

Some stats on unknowns:

A Neurotic
Lynch Day 1 - QB
Lynch Day 2 - DID NOT VOTE
Lynch Day 3 - Pter

FFA#1 - Chagan, Digital Solitude, Nopeare
FFA#2 - Jayop, Chagan, Digital Solitude


Digital Solitude
Lynch Day 1 - QB
Lynch Day 2 - Kolido
Lynch Day 3 - Pter

FFA#1 - Xaracatz, The_Valeyard, Kolido
FFA#2 - Jayop, Chagan, y0ssar1an22


Jayop
Lynch Day 1 - QB
Lynch Day 2 - Valeyard
Lynch Day 3 - Pter

FFA#1 - The_Valeyard, Kolido, Barney92
FFA#2 - DID NOT VOTE


Deleted User
Lynch Day 1 - QB
Lynch Day 2 - DID NOT VOTE
Lynch Day 3 - Pter

FFA#1 - DID NOT VOTE
FFA#2 - Pter, y0ssar1an22, Chagan


sKeith
Lynch Day 1 - QB
Lynch Day 2 - Valeyard
Lynch Day 3 - Jayop

FFA#1 - Valeyard, Xaracatz, y0ssar1an22
FFA#2 - Jayop, y0ssar1an22, Valeyard


y0ssar1an22
Lynch Day 1 - QB
Lynch Day 2 - Necrominus
Lynch Day 3 - Petr

FFA#1 - Necrominus, Jayop, MrsFlushdraw
FFA#2 - Jayop, Petr

Barney92

Barney92 wrote: »

If it's 4 from 5, assuming party is legit and not counting Vale, then something doesn't add up digital. If you're an nrv, then jayop can't be the judge without there being a liar somewhere. It would be 4 evil from 3 unknowns.

That is a great point Barney92. I think we've caught us a hairy one.


Are we waiting to do some math before deciding to lynch Vale or otherwise? I can't think any reason why we'd vote Vale now. We'd be in the exact same position tomorrow as we are now: another shot at reducing the kill rate from 3 to 2. We should take that shot now.

Digital Solitude

quickbeam wrote: »

I'd a hunch it was you - the only one of the unknowns to vote for the lynchee both the last two nights - a result that was approved by the Judge. That's what I was hinting at with the below.



But the "Friday" comment from Jay is worth noting. Thanks for reminding me.

Definitely not me, I'd be the worst judge ever. I was considering claiming it to try draw a munch hopefully, but I doubt anyone would have backed me. If I chanced it pre-lynch, the real judge would have hung me out to dry.

I'm having a shocker of a game, critical analysis is gone.

I'm running a D&D session later so I'll be spending all day in my dungeons.

Going back to this list of unknowns

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown
partyjungle - possibly Apu
sKeith - f?ck knows
The_Valeyard - evil Nelson
y0ssar1an22 - unknown

Bear with me and assume I am a goodie. Four baddies, one of the others must be the Judge right?

Digital just claimed he is not the judge.......... ergo Digital is a baddie. Now what do we do with this information is the question? The wolves know I will argue this point. Are they throwing digital under the bus for some reason?

Quick bolded edit


Going back to this list of unknowns

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown
partyjungle - possibly Apu
sKeith - f?ck knows
The_Valeyard - evil Nelson
y0ssar1an22 - unknown

Bear with me and assume I am a goodie. Four baddies left , one of the others must be the Judge right?

Digital just claimed he is not the judge.......... ergo Digital is a baddie. Now what do we do with this information is the question? The wolves know I will argue this point. Are they throwing digital under the bus for some reason?

raze_them_all_

Deleted User wrote: »

Quick bolded edit


Going back to this list of unknowns

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown
partyjungle - possibly Apu
sKeith - f?ck knows
The_Valeyard - evil Nelson
y0ssar1an22 - unknown

Bear with me and assume I am a goodie. Four baddies left , one of the others must be the Judge right?

Digital just claimed he is not the judge.......... ergo Digital is a baddie. Now what do we do with this information is the question? The wolves know I will argue this point. Are they throwing digital under the bus for some reason?

it is possible one of the teams is 1, the other grabbing nelson, is up to 3, can sacrifice digital, let vale get lynched and still have a member alive. So that would be 2 lynches but 2 munches with tomorrow being a speed round

Digital Solitude

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Digital just claimed he is not the judge.......... ergo Digital is a baddie. Now what do we do with this information is the question? The wolves know I will argue this point. Are they throwing digital under the bus for some reason?

There's a huge logical leap there PJ, the judge is in the list of confirmed/believed players, they're just using someone else's role.

I'm almost certain you and I are the villagers from the list, but if you're a wolf then I think Jay is the most likely Judge.

Digital Solitude

Digital Solitude wrote: »

There's a huge logical leap there PJ, the judge is in the list of confirmed/believed players, they're just using someone else's role.

I'm almost certain you and I are the villagers from the list, but if you're a wolf then I think Jay is the most likely Judge.

Can you elaborate on this? You are suggesting the Judge is amongst the confirmed good players but under a different alias?

raze_them_all_

we are assuming the judge is alive btw, the mods would have to give the 30 mins extra so they dont give away free info

quickbeam

Deleted User wrote: »

Quick bolded edit


Going back to this list of unknowns

A Neurotic - unknown
Digital Solitude - unknown
Jayop - unknown
partyjungle - possibly Apu
sKeith - f?ck knows
The_Valeyard - evil Nelson
y0ssar1an22 - unknown

Bear with me and assume I am a goodie. Four baddies left , one of the others must be the Judge right?

Digital just claimed he is not the judge.......... ergo Digital is a baddie. Now what do we do with this information is the question? The wolves know I will argue this point. Are they throwing digital under the bus for some reason?

I'm less and less sure of this. You seem to be pushing hard that we leave you off the unknown list just because you claimed Apu earlier.

Why did you not vote in Lynch 2?
Why did you not participate in the first FFA?
Why are your reasons in FFA2 so watery?
Why have you been so quiet all game?

quickbeam

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

we are assuming the judge is alive btw, the mods would have to give the 30 mins extra so they dont give away free info

True. There's no guarantee he wasn't among the unknown dead goodies.

raze_them_all_

quickbeam wrote: »

True. There's no guarantee he wasn't among the unknown dead goodies.

This if mods just stopped giving the extra time anyone with a brain would know to look back at the dead and put the judge amongst them.


and since i asked the judge yday if he was voting pter and not changing if he's lynched to pm mods to skip the 30 min break, either he's dead or mods wouldnt allow the time speed up

Digital Solitude

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Can you elaborate on this? You are suggesting the Judge is amongst the confirmed good players but under a different alias?

Yes.

Okay theres 7 unknowns, 5 of whom are evil.

I'm not evil, that leaves 5 of 6. So that leaves us 5 possibilities

a) You're a wolf, another unknown is the Judge
b) You're the Judge
c) The Judge is dead
d) You're good, Judge playing under an alias
e) You're a wolf, Judge playing under an alias

I think d and then c are the most likely scenarios.

quickbeam

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

what posts were these?

PJ - Yoss asked you this, and you never answered. I'd be interested to hear what you've got against Yoss.

tritium

Could someone post up a list of players and claimed roles (including dead players) if they have it handy?