WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

Digital Solitude · 25-05-2017 4:01pm

Jesus mate spit it out or don't, you're making me feel like a moron here.

25-05-2017 4:03pm

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Jesus mate spit it out or don't, you're making me feel like a moron here.

25-05-2017 4:12pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Does the village have any powers left? Any reason why we all can't reveal ourselves?

A Neurotic wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

I presume you have been lurking all day? Nothing to add other than claim a role? You suspect you are flying solo so didn't need to coordinate this with anyone in your back room

Took you 6 minutes to spit this out and now you return to the shadows.

25-05-2017 4:13pm

Digital Solitude wrote: »

Jesus mate spit it out or don't, you're making me feel like a moron here.

I'm just as

as you tbh

25-05-2017 4:19pm

sKeith wrote: »

Shouldn't be a surprise to anybody who's getting my vote.
Jayop

I suggest you lay it out. This is the third time I can count where you've caused confusion.

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:20pm

shhhh.. I'm wait for mrs fd...

Digital Solitude · 25-05-2017 4:21pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm just as as you tbh

I can see where Flushy could be tied to Barney, A Neurotic or myself, nothing on Jayop. So this is confusing me further.

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:21pm

I'm intrigued about this theory of hers.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:21pm

I'm lost.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:22pm

quickbeam wrote: »

I'm lost.

(Just saving Vale the trouble)

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:23pm

the school firewall blocks pictures so I won't get to see it until i go home

y0ssar1an22 · 25-05-2017 4:25pm

i think skeith is saying mrs FD is a wolf

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:28pm

Only Jay and Yoss haven't claimed a role. And only Judge Snyder hasn't been claimed. So one of those two are ALL FOUR of the last bad guys, which is some feat!!

So back to square one.

I'm definitely good as I was lynched but survived.

Unless Nopeare came up with a very lucky guess as to who the real Ned first peaked (or unless Necro lied about being that person, but he's good, so why would he?) then Nopeare HAS to be good too, right?

Raze could have anticipated that there'd be something about the retirement home mentioned and claimed Grandpa and got lucky with saying that Petr was a baddie (or knew Petr was a baddie because he was on his team and they agreed to make the sacrifice to build villager points). But it's really stretching the credibility to think all that happened.

Chagan & Barney could very well be baddies backing up each other's story. Barney might have taken a stab at who the Simpson killed was.

MrsFlushdraw might have been following the game closer than we gave her credit for and made the "slip of the tongue" about being Carl quite easily.

Trit is the one I'm most suspicious of now (of those semi-cleared). A clever player like him could easily have laid the "Im Krusty" groundwork to protect themselves from a peek.

Barney & Chagan

A Neurotic · 25-05-2017 4:29pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ugh we need everyone to come out at once if at all possible so some people can trip up

Ah. I may have gotten excited.

In my defence, Lenny's one of my favourite supporting characters and it's been very difficult for me not to post "Not Lenny!" whenever anyone's accused me of anything throughout the game. The Lenny memes are strong.

Deleted User wrote: »

I presume you have been lurking all day? Nothing to add other than claim a role? You suspect you are flying solo so didn't need to coordinate this with anyone in your back room

Deleted User wrote: »

Took you 6 minutes to spit this out and now you return to the shadows.

Still at work, was afk. Have been able to dip in throughout the day but only for little bits.

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:30pm

Chagan & Barney could very well be baddies backing up each other's story. Barney might have taken a stab at who the Simpson killed was.

I don't agree with this!

y0ssar1an22 · 25-05-2017 4:31pm

quickbeam wrote: »

Only Jay and Yoss haven't claimed a role. And only Judge Snyder hasn't been claimed. So one of those two are ALL FOUR of the last bad guys, which is some feat!!

So back to square one.

I'm definitely good as I was lynched but survived.

Unless Nopeare came up with a very lucky guess as to who the real Ned first peaked (or unless Necro lied about being that person, but he's good, so why would he?) then Nopeare HAS to be good too, right?

Raze could have anticipated that there'd be something about the retirement home mentioned and claimed Grandpa and got lucky with saying that Petr was a baddie (or knew Petr was a baddie because he was on his team and they agreed to make the sacrifice to build villager points). But it's really stretching the credibility to think all that happened.

Chagan & Barney could very well be baddies backing up each other's story. Barney might have taken a stab at who the Simpson killed was.

MrsFlushdraw might have been following the game closer than we gave her credit for and made the "slip of the tongue" about being Carl quite easily.

Trit is the one I'm most suspicious of now (of those semi-cleared). A clever player like him could easily have laid the "Im Krusty" groundwork to protect themselves from a peek.

Barney & Chagan

we're more than that. all 4 baddies and the judge

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:31pm

sKeith wrote: »

Chagan & Barney could very well be baddies backing up each other's story. Barney might have taken a stab at who the Simpson killed was.

I don't agree with this!

I don't think it's likely. But I'm just looking again at my semi-cleared list to see which ones are absolute and which ones have holes, no matter how small.

y0ssar1an22 · 25-05-2017 4:32pm

i'll tell you my role later. 1 last big hour of work

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:33pm

I'll relook at that transaction again,with your theory in mind.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:38pm

sKeith wrote: »

More news, QB is vunerable............

Keith - why did you write the above during your night-time ramblings? Did you know, and if so how? Or was it just to see what kind of reaction you'd get? Or what?

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:41pm

sKeith wrote: »

If you are going to reread my misinformation over again, I was working under the assumption that QB was protected 2 nights ago.

.

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:42pm

Qb. I though you were still protected. and claimed you were not so munches would be wasted.

MrsFlushdraw · 25-05-2017 4:43pm

sKeith wrote: »

what did you make of this when it was happening?

sKeith wrote: »

Alos, MrsFD, share your theory...

Digital Solitude wrote: »

I can see where Flushy could be tied to Barney, A Neurotic or myself, nothing on Jayop. So this is confusing me further.

sKeith wrote: »

shhhh.. I'm wait for mrs fd...

I have to LOL at the confusion you are trying to cause

I was going to suggest that maybe Barney wasn't evil and was trying to direct the kill away from Homer. I think I said that when I posted for the first time after my post this morning.

I am Carl, my very FIRST post was about me doing my plant shift, that was just me being subtle. With everyone alive it is too risky if you are not who you say you are. THEN I missed 17 pages and I was told I was a peeked wolf. I came out as Carl, which is my role and on day one NO ONE said otherwise. I am Carl

So bark up another tree wolf!

You are clutching at straws mate, which must be hard with claws

Barney92 · 25-05-2017 4:44pm

sKeith wrote: »

Qb. I though you were still protected. and claimed you were not so munches would be wasted.

The fact that qb hadn't outed the fact that Bart was dead was why I was so reticent last night.

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:47pm

The Maths of lynching Vale versus an unknown in the hope of wiping out a baddie team:

Currently 14 players = 5 bad & 9 good

Scenario 1
Lynch Vale = 4 bad & 9 good
Morning Munch = 4 bad & 6 good*

Scenario 2
Lynch a baddie and wipe out a team = 4 bad & 9 good
Morning Munch = 4 bad & 7 good*

Scenario 3
Lynch a villager in error = 5 bad & 8 good
Morning Munch = 5 bad & 5 good*

*assumes worst case scenario of no double targets or cross targets

Clearly this shows that lynching Vale is the "safest" option.

If we bet big and try and wipe out a team, we could win big or lose big. The question is - do we want to take that risk?

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:47pm

sKeith wrote: »

Qb. I though you were still protected. and claimed you were not so munches would be wasted.

Sounds plausible. Thanks for answer.

sKeith · 25-05-2017 4:50pm

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

I have to LOL at the confusion you are trying to cause

I was going to suggest that maybe Barney wasn't evil and was trying to direct the kill away from Homer. I think I said that when I posted for the first time after my post this morning.

I am Carl, my very FIRST post was about me doing my plant shift, that was just me being subtle. With everyone alive it is too risky if you are not who you say you are. THEN I missed 17 pages and I was told I was a peeked wolf. I came out as Carl, which is my role and on day one NO ONE said otherwise. I am Carl

So bark up another tree wolf!

You are clutching at straws mate, which must be hard with claws

the odds for what you are suggesting are way smaller then the odds of you guessing 1/30 or whatever it was.

skinner was peeked and still you claim I am a wolf. what are the odds of that happening? and where does skinner fit into the roles charts drawn up today?

quickbeam · 25-05-2017 4:51pm

Barney92 wrote: »

The fact that qb hadn't outed the fact that Bart was dead was why I was so reticent last night.

With Marge already revealed, then I'd no problem you saying the fates of Bart & Lisa. And wondered why you wouldn't. I was still semi-convinced you were who you said you were, especially when I checked back on the timings of Maggie's shots and when you were online. But then your "I'm a baddie really" post stumped me for a bit. I still hoped it was a ruse.

As I said several times, I never expected to survive this game.

MrsFlushdraw · 25-05-2017 4:53pm

quickbeam wrote: »

The Maths of lynching Vale versus an unknown in the hope of wiping out a baddie team:

Currently 14 players = 5 bad & 9 good

Scenario 1
Lynch Vale = 4 bad & 9 good
Morning Munch = 4 bad & 6 good*

Scenario 2
Lynch a baddie and wipe out a team = 4 bad & 9 good
Morning Munch = 4 bad & 7 good*

Scenario 3
Lynch a villager in error = 5 bad & 8 good
Morning Munch = 5 bad & 5 good*

*assumes worst case scenario of no double targets or cross targets

Clearly this shows that lynching Vale is the "safest" option.

If we bet big and try and wipe out a team, we could win big or lose big. The question is - do we want to take that risk?

Gambooooool

sKeith wrote: »

the odds for what you are suggesting are way smaller then the odds of you guessing 1/30 or whatever it was.

skinner was peeked and still you claim I am a wolf. what are the odds of that happening? and where does skinner fit into the roles charts drawn up today?

I never mentioned Skinner. Are you saying that it wasnt risky me leaving a trail at the beginning on who I was? I haven't time to go back through everything about skinner.

Barney92 · 25-05-2017 4:56pm

quickbeam wrote: »

Only Jay and Yoss haven't claimed a role. And only Judge Snyder hasn't been claimed. So one of those two are ALL FOUR of the last bad guys, which is some feat!!

So back to square one.

I'm definitely good as I was lynched but survived.

Unless Nopeare came up with a very lucky guess as to who the real Ned first peaked (or unless Necro lied about being that person, but he's good, so why would he?) then Nopeare HAS to be good too, right?

Raze could have anticipated that there'd be something about the retirement home mentioned and claimed Grandpa and got lucky with saying that Petr was a baddie (or knew Petr was a baddie because he was on his team and they agreed to make the sacrifice to build villager points). But it's really stretching the credibility to think all that happened.

Chagan & Barney could very well be baddies backing up each other's story. Barney might have taken a stab at who the Simpson killed was.

MrsFlushdraw might have been following the game closer than we gave her credit for and made the "slip of the tongue" about being Carl quite easily.

Trit is the one I'm most suspicious of now (of those semi-cleared). A clever player like him could easily have laid the "Im Krusty" groundwork to protect themselves from a peek.

Barney & Chagan

My 5 suspects from last night were yosser, neurotic, jayop, digital and skeith. Four evils left (5 now if you count Vale/Nelson). If the judge is still alive they'll have to claim it and prove it. The only way of doing that is if the lynch is changed tonight. If not we assume the judge is dead. Now, Digi, sKeith and Neurotic are claiming NRVs so if the judge isn't yosser or jay then we know the judge is dead. The judge, if alive, has to come out and change the result of the lynch. Come out after 9 and say who the new lynchee is.

I have more faith in all of the claims that were made before today, with the slight exception of sKeith, but I'll still place his Skinner claim higher than current ones without evidence.

WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

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