WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

quickbeam

quickbeam wrote: »

The Maths of lynching Vale versus an unknown in the hope of wiping out a baddie team:

Currently 14 players = 5 bad & 9 good

Scenario 1
Lynch Vale = 4 bad & 9 good
Morning Munch = 4 bad & 6 good*

Scenario 2
Lynch a baddie and wipe out a team = 4 bad & 9 good
Morning Munch = 4 bad & 7 good*

Scenario 3
Lynch a villager in error = 5 bad & 8 good
Morning Munch = 5 bad & 5 good*

*assumes worst case scenario of no double targets or cross targets


Clearly this shows that lynching Vale is the "safest" option.

If we bet big and try and wipe out a team, we could win big or lose big. The question is - do we want to take that risk?

I think you need to add in the choice that we have that night and the ramifications of that for the next morning. If we lynch vale now, we could be faced with TWO munches of three deaths if we fail to take out any teams two nights in a row.

Jayop

Given it's pretty obvious that the judge was alive last night and that this morning Dottie, Lord and Gufc had all already roleclaimed other roles and there would be no reason for them not to admit to being the judge if they were then it's pretty clear that the judge is still alive.

So either I'm the judge or Yosser or neurotic are. If one of those two are then please let them come out and contradict me.

Jayop

My FFA tonight is...

Yosser
Neurotic
Skieth - obvious alpha is obvious

Barney92

Jayop wrote: »

Got to be one of the three that hasn't role claimed so far then. There's 4 evils unknown as well as Vale. Surely 2/3 of those with no role claim are evil at least.

The problem is that any of the later roleclaims with no power attached to them are useless really because they are just hoping to get lucky and say the name of someone already dead. No priests is killing us here.

Our chances don't look good tbh.

14 alive with 5 evils
Kill evil tonight 13/4
3 kills in the morning (assuming they don't kill another evil) 10/4
We lynch Vale tomorrow 9/3
3 kills Saturday (assuming they don't kill another evil) 6/3
Lynch Saturday evil 5/2
Should there still be two evil teams left then we're goners 4/2

So without the evils killing other evils even with a perfect lynch record for the next few three turns we're still going into the Sunday night lynch with 2 evils vs 2 goodies. If they're on the one team we're dead. If they're not then it's pot luck as to who we lynch.

I'd be pretty confident in at least one overlap of kills, so we could still be okay.

Barney92

Jayop wrote: »

Given it's pretty obvious that the judge was alive last night and that this morning Dottie, Lord and Gufc had all already roleclaimed other roles and there would be no reason for them not to admit to being the judge if they were then it's pretty clear that the judge is still alive.

So either I'm the judge or Yosser or neurotic are. If one of those two are then please let them come out and contradict me.

Neurotic is claiming Lenny. If he switches now, he's my lynch candidate.

quickbeam

Jayop wrote: »

Given it's pretty obvious that the judge was alive last night and that this morning Dottie, Lord and Gufc had all already roleclaimed other roles and there would be no reason for them not to admit to being the judge if they were then it's pretty clear that the judge is still alive.

So either I'm the judge or Yosser or neurotic are. If one of those two are then please let them come out and contradict me.

Neurotic has claimed Lenny.

One one now without a claim is Yoss.

A Neurotic - Lenny
Barney92 - Maggie
Chagan - Lisa
Digital Solitude - Comic Book Guy
Jayop - Snyder
MrsFlushdraw - Carl
Nopeare - Ned
partyjungle - Apu
quickbeam - Homer
raze_them_all_ - Grampa
sKeith - Skinner
The_Valeyard - Nelson
tritium - Krusty
y0ssar1an22 - unknown

I'm out for the evening. Voting dental p

The_Valeyard

If I'm going to be lynched can I've a heads up to plan my own meme death?

Jayop

Barney92 wrote: »

Neurotic is claiming Lenny. If he switches now, he's my lynch candidate.

OK I missed that.

So Digi and Yosser are the two who look worst right now.

I think at this stage both just need to claim a role. Surely not doing so is an indication of guilt. If either claim an already claimed role then we're golden.

Jayop

Just looked back for previous mentions of Lenny and Comic Book Guy and there's been really nothing that would point to an already dead player hinting that they were in fact one of those two.

MrsFlushdraw

My #FFA3

Yoss - as stated on previous days
Vale - Turned evil
Skeith - Alpha

The_Valeyard

Jayop wrote: »

OK I missed that.

So Digi and Yosser are the two who look worst right now.

I think at this stage both just need to claim a role. Surely not doing so is an indication of guilt. If either claim an already claimed role then we're golden.

On could their role or so valuable that to say could have them targeted by wolves?

The_Valeyard

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

My #FFA3

Yoss - as stated on previous days
Vale - Turned evil
Skeith - Alpha

Awwwww, but i like you xx

Digital Solitude

Jayop I'm reluctantly buying you as the judge. sKieth pissed me off with his hinting ****e earlier but he still hasn't gone anywhere with it.

I've voted PJ already but will change from that, a lot of new info has come to light since then.

Jayop

Dead good players who had no role claim.

Drumpot - unknown
Loughc - unknown
Necrominus - unknown

We need to look back over these guys posts and see if they hinted at a character that once dead some of the evils claimed for themselves.

If that's the case for the three of them then well played evils. Those three (who ever claimed them), yosser and vale would make up the five evil players left.

Jayop

The_Valeyard wrote: »

On could their role or so valuable that to say could have them targeted by wolves?

What's left of value?

Jayop

Drumpots posts

http://www.boards.ie/search/submit/?user=157074&thread=2057743075&sort=oldest&date_to=&date_from=&query=%2A%3A%2A

please look for any hints of a character

The_Valeyard

Jayop wrote: »

What's left of value?

Fair point.


Mexican stand off?

MrsFlushdraw

I know this is crazy but since Jayop claimed the Judge he has changed from his watery posts to real posts.

Could it be the mods have just not let us know the Judge was dead? Did Jayop do what I did and check the lynch posts and decide to take a chance?

Well, he deserves to win if he is a wolf.

raze_them_all_

Jayop if you had to choose do we lynch vale or no?

The_Valeyard

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

I know this is crazy but since Jayop claimed the Judge he has changed from his watery posts to real posts.

Could it be the mods have just not let us know the Judge was dead? Did Jayop do what I did and check the lynch posts and decide to take a chance?

Well, he deserves to win if he is a wolf.

I should win.

My dads been at the store for six years and my moms a drunk smoking slut.

I raised myself, bullied my way to the top and organised an efficient method of extorting lunch money.

Digital Solitude

Jayop wrote: »

OK I missed that.

So Digi and Yosser are the two who look worst right now.

I think at this stage both just need to claim a role. Surely not doing so is an indication of guilt. If either claim an already claimed role then we're golden.

And AN is off the hook on his Lenny claim?

quickbeam

In order of reveal:

tritium - Krusty - technically Sunday 19:11 with the last of his posts that spelled "Im Krusty"
MrsFlushdraw - Carl - Monday 17:24
quickbeam - Homer - Monday 20:58 (at lynch)
Nopeare - Ned - Tuesday 12:43
partyjungle - Apu - Tuesday 15:35
The_Valeyard - Nelson - debatable, Mick said he picked it up Monday, I picked it up Tuesday 20:00, it then became clear to everybody after Kolido was lynched that evening
sKeith - Skinner - Wednesday 03:22
raze_them_all_ - Grampa - Wednesday 10:08 (after power kicks in)
Barney92 - Maggie - Wednesday 21:20 & Thursday 10:00
Chagan - Lisa - Thursday 11:51
Digital Solitude - Comic Book Guy - Thursday 14:59
A Neurotic - Lenny - Thursday 15:12
Jayop - Snyder - Thursday 17:15
y0ssar1an22 - yet to reveal

quickbeam

y0ssar1an22 wrote: »

i'll tell you my role later. 1 last big hour of work

Well? That was 90 minutes ago. All work should be completed. Your role is ..... ?

Jayop

Drumpot wrote: »

If you knew who I was you would know I am wound up tighter then ... Something very tight . . I don't chill . .

Drumpot wrote: »

You are just too cool for my school . .

Can all the villians see each other ? That is, is there a chance they accidentally turn on each other ?

Drumpot wrote: »

Ok . .
Can somebody please explain what is going on ?
We are voting for quickbeam to prove him innocent ? How exactly does that work ?
If the judge lets him off, Herman doesn't get a kill . . Ok, but until you explain how we know how the vote proves anybody innocent I am not sure what we will gain from this exercise . .
Couldn't quickbeam be an alpha ? Arent they immune while they have a full litter ?
Necro asked me a few pages back who I suspected . . I had replied but a communication error meant my comments were not recorded. But on reflection it was for the best. There are sheep with very long snouts wandering around.......

Drumpot wrote: »

No I am good thanks . . I was always good at blending in at school . . Now I just make sure things run smoothly . . I am not the droid you are looking for . .

Drumpot wrote: »

You know, the last time I was in a village like this, I kept very quiet and blended in nicely . . Until people started noticing me and then I got hurt . .



What I love about this village is that I know who I am and you know who you are, but we are not sure of each other.

I am not promoting that you be lynched I am putting you on a watch list for others to monitor . . You are quick to get the pitchfork and that makes people make mistakes . .

Fits in with the Armin Tamzarian backstory.

Drumpot was skinner imo.

That line especially about being "too cool for my school" was the clincher.

He also had a post about not liking fish that I thought was possibly related to making fish stew in vietnam for three years but that would be a stretch.

Jayop

Drumpot wrote: »

Maggie be like . . .

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

Jayop if you had to choose do we lynch vale or no?

I don't think we can do that tonight. We have to try to get Bob really.

Skieth and Vale are 100% evil though.

Jayop

^^ didn't mean to quote that in my last post from drumpot.

quickbeam

Jayop wrote: »

My FFA tonight is...

Yosser
Neurotic
Skieth - obvious alpha is obvious

MrsFlushdraw wrote: »

My #FFA3

Yoss - as stated on previous days
Vale - Turned evil
Skeith - Alpha

If we're doing this, let's do it properly. If I can everybody's FFA in by 7.30pm I'll compile then. I suggest at least 10, preferably 11 (that's 3/4s of the current players) need to participate for it to be valid.

The_Valeyard

Jayop wrote: »

^^ didn't mean to quote that in my last post from drumpot.

Jayop

quickbeam wrote: »

In order of reveal:

tritium - Krusty - technically Sunday 19:11 with the last of his posts that spelled "Im Krusty"
MrsFlushdraw - Carl - Monday 17:24
quickbeam - Homer - Monday 20:58 (at lynch)
Nopeare - Ned - Tuesday 12:43
partyjungle - Apu - Tuesday 15:35
The_Valeyard - Nelson - debatable, Mick said he picked it up Monday, I picked it up Tuesday 20:00, it then became clear to everybody after Kolido was lynched that evening
sKeith - Skinner - Wednesday 03:22
raze_them_all_ - Grampa - Wednesday 10:08 (after power kicks in)
Barney92 - Maggie - Wednesday 21:20 & Thursday 10:00
Chagan - Lisa - Thursday 11:51
Digital Solitude - Comic Book Guy - Thursday 14:59
A Neurotic - Lenny - Thursday 15:12
Jayop - Snyder - Thursday 17:15
y0ssar1an22 - yet to reveal

Well that fits with my Skieth claiming Drumpots role.

He claimed it after Drumpot was dead and I've no doubt that's why he was killed too.