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WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

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    #4232
    Digital Solitude
    Registered Users Posts: 11,397 ✭✭✭✭Digital Solitude


    Jayop wrote: »
    So the only thing now is which evil to take out, kieth or Vale. For me we know that Vale is on a team that had 4 while Kieth may have been on a team of 3 so in terms of likelihood to take out a baddie team it should be kieth.

    Thoughts?

    They both could have been from the team of four.


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    #4233
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    Jayop wrote: »
    So the only thing now is which evil to take out, kieth or Vale. For me we know that Vale is on a team that had 4 while Kieth may have been on a team of 3 so in terms of likelihood to take out a baddie team it should be kieth.

    Thoughts?

    Yes makes sense. We know we didnt get a wolf last night so vales team has to have more than 1. Lets use the time to figure out vales partner so....


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    #4234
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    My personal thoughts are...

    Safe as houses:
    Nopeare - claimed Ned Flanders, confirmed by Necro
    raze_them_all_ - claimed Grampa Simpson
    Barney92 - claimed Maggie Simpson
    Jayop - claimed Judge Snyder

    Probably safe:
    MrsFlushdraw - claimed Carl
    partyjungle - claimed Apu
    tritium - claimed Krusty

    Highly suspect:
    A Neurotic - claimed Lenny
    Digital Solitude - claimed Comic Book Guy

    Def evil:
    sKeith - seer peeked good, so: Alpha
    The_Valeyard - Nelson, turned bad


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    #4235
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    Digital Solitude wrote: »
    They both could have been from the team of four.

    Statistically though there is a higher chance as skeith started on a team of 3 while vale 100% ended on a team that had 4 members


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    #4236
    Digital Solitude
    Registered Users Posts: 11,397 ✭✭✭✭Digital Solitude


    Thoughts on everyone putting

    Jayop
    partyjungle
    tritium
    A Neurotic
    Digital Solitude

    in order of guiltyness, or else just an FFA.


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    #4237
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Digital Solitude wrote: »
    They both could have been from the team of four.

    Of course but Vale was 100% in the team of four while Kieth was 50% in the team of four.

    I know which odds I like better


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    #4238
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Jayop wrote: »
    So the only thing now is which evil to take out, kieth or Vale. For me we know that Vale is on a team that had 4 while Kieth may have been on a team of 3 so in terms of likelihood to take out a baddie team it should be kieth.

    Thoughts?

    Definitely not Vale yet. He's probably got at least two left on his team. I'm happy with Keith or neurotic.

    I'm still pages behind. Did anything of note happen?


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    #4239
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    Jayop is safe in my opinion. Trying to pop him makes you look guilty digi


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    #4240
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    raze_them_all_ wrote: »
    Statistically though there is a higher chance as skeith started on a team of 3 while vale 100% ended on a team that had 4 members

    Exactly. Double the chance with kieth.


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    #4241
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    Jayop wrote: »
    Of course but Vale was 100% in the team of four while Kieth was 50% in the team of four.

    I know which odds I like better

    I like how you think!


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    #4242
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Definitely not Vale yet. He's probably got at least two left on his team. I'm happy with Keith or neurotic.

    I'm still pages behind. Did anything of note happen?

    We hit Bob and kieth has tourettes.


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    #4243
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    I also think that the rich gang took out qb going by the kill message and looking at the posting from kieth he was gunning for her.

    If only we had a inkling of which side Vale was on we'd have a better idea.

    I've voted for Keith tho.


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    #4244
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    I fully agree with jayops thinking as mathematics it makes sense but can we all agree that it's a miracle that valeyard is still alive. If with hit skeith then it's his second lynch to live through that everyone knows he is a wolf


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    #4245
    Digital Solitude
    Registered Users Posts: 11,397 ✭✭✭✭Digital Solitude


    I'm going to vote sKeith then so, makes the most sense.


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    #4246
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    Yep but in fairness we've killed other evils both times.

    Not a lot to do now really but vote and wait to see what happens on the lynch. We take kieth and then Vale.

    If we end up then with an evil from each team remaining we'll be badly short in village numbers so need the likes of chagan to come on and contribute.


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    #4247
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    Chagan is dead dude. Him and qb were kills today


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    #4248
    Digital Solitude
    Registered Users Posts: 11,397 ✭✭✭✭Digital Solitude


    Jayop wrote: »
    Not a lot to do now really but vote and wait to see what happens on the lynch. We take kieth and then Vale.

    No point waiting until 5pm to start talking, we're better off doing an FFA or two.


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    #4249
    MrsFlushdraw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,880 ✭✭✭MrsFlushdraw


    Voted there for Skieth, not going to be on all the time to check, but will try and get here before the pm lynch but me and the mistress are heading to the beach for a few hours. I got fired from the plant so going to make the most of my weekend.

    Duff beer on the beach:p


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    #4250
    Digital Solitude
    Registered Users Posts: 11,397 ✭✭✭✭Digital Solitude


    Jayop wrote: »
    11 left alive, 7 good, 4 bad

    Safe as houses:
    Nopeare - claimed Ned Flanders, confirmed by Necro

    Probably safe:
    Barney92 - claimed Maggie Simpson
    MrsFlushdraw - claimed Carl
    raze_them_all_ - claimed Grampa Simpson

    Unknowns:
    Jayop - claimed Judge Snyder
    partyjungle - claimed Apu
    tritium - claimed Krusty

    Highly suspect:
    A Neurotic - claimed Lenny
    Digital Solitude - claimed Comic Book Guy
    sKeith - seer peeked good, so: Alpha
    The_Valeyard - Nelson, turned bad

    For reference


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    #4251
    raze_them_all_
    Registered Users Posts: 6,744 ✭✭✭raze_them_all_


    Going to put my vote in for skeith now!


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    #4252
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Definitely not Vale yet. He's probably got at least two left on his team. I'm happy with Keith or neurotic.

    I'm still pages behind. Did anything of note happen?

    Vale has to have two left doesnt he? Turned in the morning, killed Bob in the evening. Whoever turned vale is still out there so must be two of them


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    #4253
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    As it stands we have 7 good, 4 bad with 2 cert evils and 4 cert good.

    Worst case scenario after two lynches is that we end up with an evil from each team. That gives them 4 kills which they can organize in the open.

    We then have 3 good and 2 bad. I assume they'll kill at least 3 of the people on my safe list. At that stage we are in a situation where we can't really afford a mistake. If we miss the next lynch we have still two evils. 1 good and two bad.

    Best case scenario is kieth is in a team solo. Kill him and Vale and only lose two good players. We have 5 good and 2 bad. Much more room to maneuver.


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    #4254
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    raze_them_all_ wrote: »
    Chagan is dead dude. Him and qb were kills today

    Meant Nopeare.


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    #4255
    Jayop
    Closed Accounts Posts: 17,388 ✭✭✭✭Jayop


    If we all vote kieth can we just get this lynch out of the way early and have the second one at two? Would be nice to finish this today as I'm away all weekend.


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    #4256
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    Skeith voted for


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    #4257
    tritium
    Registered Users Posts: 7,443 ✭✭✭tritium


    On another note can someone look at skeiths early posts. All this random posting makes me wonder if its not just to cover anything he might have said earlier before he was caught


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    #4258
    sKeith
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,404 ✭✭✭✭sKeith


    Jayop wrote: »
    Meant Nopeare.
    Good luck with that .. lol


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    #4259
    Digital Solitude
    Registered Users Posts: 11,397 ✭✭✭✭Digital Solitude


    #FFA3

    PJ - Came out of nowhere with helpful posts yesterday, has since disappeared again.
    Trit - Early claim that's never been scrutinized, one of the most likely to be lying about who he is.
    AN - Most suspicious poster left IMO, again, likely to be lying.


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    #4260
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I wonder once keith got rumbled, is he being loud in an effort to get lynched? Thus his team of two might survive longer by drawing heat away from the other? I'm possibly over thinking it.

    I'm voting DENTAL PLAN again


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    #4261
    MrsFlushdraw
    Registered Users Posts: 2,880 ✭✭✭MrsFlushdraw


    Digital Solitude wrote: »
    #FFA3

    PJ - Came out of nowhere with helpful posts yesterday, has since disappeared again.
    Trit - Early claim that's never been scrutinized, one of the most likely to be lying about who he is.
    AN - Most suspicious poster left IMO, again, likely to be lying.

    Don't know what it is, but your FFA makes me suss of you


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