WW XII - Simpsons Mafia

Necro

I want to suggest that Maggie not ignore EMF either. One post this morning and straight away trying to cast doubt on Tigger's theory. Then ducks for cover again. Post quoted below:

EMF2010 wrote: »

Jesus, does nobody sleep in Springfield? All sorts of excitement but one baddie down is a good thing.

I see I made Tigger's suspect list, which was inevitable I guess given that I didn't immediately fall in line on the whole reveal thing and actually asked some questions. I'm more suspicious of those who said nothing, or gave a lukewarm response. I'll be honest, if Andy hadn't been confirmed bad Tigger would be my number one suspect, as it is he's dropped down but staying on my radar. The reveal thing would've made sense with 1 or maybe 2 baddie teams I think, but with 4 - well, to me it seemed like a very ballsy baddie proposal, one which gave them a hit list of villagers and helped them identify the other baddies too.

Drumpot

Lord TSC wrote: »

Drumpot, this morning, has argued against the reveal, and now seems to be trying to throw doubt on Tigger. If you're a wolf, you're not being a very subtle one...

If you look at my questions first and ask yourself the motive if I was a wolf or villager ?!

If I was a wolf, anything I say could be misdirection using truth/lies. If I am a villager, then my aim is to try and at least do the right thing . .

In terms of the "reveal" plan, lets imagine I am a villager . . I know that potentially 4 of us can die each day and I believe 1 (possibly 2) baddies could die, with an extra being made that would cancel one of them out. I also know that baddies could really upset the apple cart by pretending to be one of the revealed goodies, delaying our ability to focus on the final 14 (assuming some of the baddies remain in the final 14).

I haven't seen a reasonable explanation discounting my theory that I, admittedly, am still a bit confused by.

Lets say we have 4 baddies that link themselves to 4 revealed goodies. We still have at least 3 baddies in the 14 remaining villagers. The seer can only look at one baddy a day, so the village spends all its resources figuring out who, out of the 2 revealed, is the real one and the baddy . . After 4 days, we might still be no closer to knowing who of the villagers is bad, but we could have 12-16 goodies dead in that time .

If I am missing something, please feel free to enlighten me . .

As for Tigger . . We don't know if he is telling the truth.. While I admit it would be a very bold move to sacrifice a wolf to gain credibility so early on, it just shouldn't be ruled out. He could use the trust he has to purge a lot of good villagers . .

quickbeam

On the reveal thing - I know this will come as as shock to you... but I'm prepaired that I'm a big, fat, bald oaf called Homer Simpson.

Oh, and the "whoo hooo" was actually entirely unintentional at least on a conscious level. I had actually intended to pretend to be a role (Willie probably) and try and get munched, which would have meant the wolves had a wasted kill as I was invulnerable at that point. Trit's accusation that I was Herman distracted me from that plan though, and then the whole Tig reveal thing got started.

Triceratops Ballet

where is young Margaret?

come on young un. Kill Kill!

tritium

Drumpot wrote: »

If you look at my questions first and ask yourself the motive if I was a wolf or villager ?!

If I was a wolf, anything I say could be misdirection using truth/lies. If I am a villager, then my aim is to try and at least do the right thing . .

In terms of the "reveal" plan, lets imagine I am a villager . . I know that potentially 4 of us can die each day and I believe 1 (possibly 2) baddies could die, with an extra being made that would cancel one of them out. I also know that baddies could really upset the apple cart by pretending to be one of the revealed goodies, delaying our ability to focus on the final 14 (assuming some of the baddies remain in the final 14).

I haven't seen a reasonable explanation discounting my theory that I, admittedly, am still a bit confused by.

Lets say we have 4 baddies that link themselves to 4 revealed goodies. We still have at least 3 baddies in the 14 remaining villagers. The seer can only look at one baddy a day, so the village spends all its resources figuring out who, out of the 2 revealed, is the real one and the baddy . . After 4 days, we might still be no closer to knowing who of the villagers is bad, but we could have 12-16 goodies dead in that time .

If I am missing something, please feel free to enlighten me . .

As for Tigger . . We don't know if he is telling the truth.. While I admit it would be a very bold move to sacrifice a wolf to gain credibility so early on, it just shouldn't be ruled out. He could use the trust he has to purge a lot of good villagers . .

Way i see it its similar to a game i heard about once over in Shelbyville. Even if tigger was a wolf (hes not), hes useful now. Hes also just bagged and tagged a wolf so one way or another hes going to be dead soon and then we'll know either way.

tritium

quickbeam wrote: »

On the reveal thing - I know this will come as as shock to you... but I'm prepaired that I'm a big, fat, bald oaf called Homer Simpson.

Oh, and the "whoo hooo" was actually entirely unintentional at least on a conscious level. I had actually intended to pretend to be a role (Willie probably) and try and get munched, which would have meant the wolves had a wasted kill as I was invulnerable at that point. Trit's accusation that I was Herman distracted me from that plan though, and then the whole Tig reveal thing got started.

Soz about that qb, sometimes its easier to spot someone has a role than exactly what that role is.....

Drumpot

Tigger wrote: »

Sounds horrible
Have you tried meditation or morpheine

I tried Love . . And it didn't work . .

Tigger

Necrominus wrote: »

I want to suggest that Maggie not ignore EMF either. One post this morning and straight away trying to cast doubt on Tigger's theory. Then ducks for cover again. Post quoted below:

Maggie has only one billets left
Emf is probably a wolf tho
He's on my list and I'd not object to lynching him at any time

Tigger

Drumpot wrote: »

I tried Love . . And it didn't work . .

Morphine feels like love

Lord TSC

Lets say we have 4 baddies that link themselves to 4 revealed goodies. We still have at least 3 baddies in the 14 remaining villagers. The seer can only look at one baddy a day, so the village spends all its resources figuring out who, out of the 2 revealed, is the real one and the baddy . . After 4 days, we might still be no closer to knowing who of the villagers is bad, but we could have 12-16 goodies dead in that time .

All 7 baddies HAVE to link themselves to goodies. Thats the point of the plan. None of them will reveal their actual identities. The point would be you'd have 7 goodies and 7 baddies in a bundle of 14, but everyone else would basically be cleared. But you'd also have 7 pairs lined up for everyone to focus on, while also giving us loads of info about what way people are voting. So you have A and B both claiming the same role. We lynch one and we're told instantly if they are good or bad, meaning we can either move directly on OR we have a guaranteed hit for the next day. The entire point of the idea was that we'd have it limited down to basically 14 people and dramatically up our chances of hitting wolves.

Tigger

tritium wrote: »

Way i see it its similar to a game i heard about once over in Shelbyville. Even if tigger was a wolf (hes not), hes useful now. Hes also just bagged and tagged a wolf so one way or another hes going to be dead soon and then we'll know either way.

Ok I can now revel that millhouse was munched last night

sullivlo

Lord TSC wrote: »

All 7 baddies HAVE to link themselves to goodies. Thats the point of the plan. None of them will reveal their actual identities. The point would be you'd have 7 goodies and 7 baddies in a bundle of 14, but everyone else would basically be cleared. But you'd also have 7 pairs lined up for everyone to focus on, while also giving us loads of info about what way people are voting. So you have A and B both claiming the same role. We lynch one and we're told instantly if they are good or bad, meaning we can either move directly on OR we have a guaranteed hit for the next day. The entire point of the idea was that we'd have it limited down to basically 14 people and dramatically up our chances of hitting wolves.

I'm happy to go for the reveal - are we going to set a time frame to come out in?

Tigger

Lord TSC wrote: »

All 7 baddies HAVE to link themselves to goodies. Thats the point of the plan. None of them will reveal their actual identities. The point would be you'd have 7 goodies and 7 baddies in a bundle of 14, but everyone else would basically be cleared. But you'd also have 7 pairs lined up for everyone to focus on, while also giving us loads of info about what way people are voting. So you have A and B both claiming the same role. We lynch one and we're told instantly if they are good or bad, meaning we can either move directly on OR we have a guaranteed hit for the next day. The entire point of the idea was that we'd have it limited down to basically 14 people and dramatically up our chances of hitting wolves.

They will have an overlap as well so it won't be 14 it will be less
Also I have a list of suspects so if it were say between dry pots and Trit I don't think it would be hard to guess which one is which
It's more complicated like that tho

tritium

sullivlo wrote: »

I'm happy to go for the reveal - are we going to set a time frame to come out in?

Did the wolf trust come up with a play to get around the reveal?

What was andys advice on it before he left the backroom?

Tigger

sullivlo wrote: »

I'm happy to go for the reveal - are we going to set a time frame to come out in?

well if Maggie could take her shot by saying I'm Maggie and I just shot x that's would help lower the odds
Also get the shot done

Uriel.

tritium wrote: »

Did the wolf trust come up with a play to get around the reveal?

What was andys advice on it before he left the backroom?

Drumpot

Lord TSC wrote: »

All 7 baddies HAVE to link themselves to goodies. Thats the point of the plan. None of them will reveal their actual identities. The point would be you'd have 7 goodies and 7 baddies in a bundle of 14, but everyone else would basically be cleared. But you'd also have 7 pairs lined up for everyone to focus on, while also giving us loads of info about what way people are voting. So you have A and B both claiming the same role. We lynch one and we're told instantly if they are good or bad, meaning we can either move directly on OR we have a guaranteed hit for the next day. The entire point of the idea was that we'd have it limited down to basically 14 people and dramatically up our chances of hitting wolves.

Why would all baddies HAVE to link themselves to Goodies? Couldn't a few of them hide in the group of villagers ?

Guffy

Tigger wrote: »

well if Maggie could take her shot by saying I'm Maggie and I just shot x that's would help lower the odds
Also get the shot done

If we are doing the reveal would it not make sense for maggie to hold on to her bullet?

tritium

Drumpot wrote: »

Why would all baddies HAVE to link themselves to Goodies? Couldn't a few of them hide in the group of villagers ?

Villagers are goodies

Lord TSC

Drumpot wrote: »

Why would all baddies HAVE to link themselves to Goodies? Couldn't a few of them hide in the group of villagers ?

How? There's no spare names; any attempt to hide in the villagers would instantly be countered by the actual villager saying "No, I'm BLAH". The baddies would HAVE to link themselves to one of the characters named in the opening post, and wouldn't be able to "hide".

Drumpot

Ah wait, I think I sort of get the reveal thing now . . So shouldn't all villagers reveal aswell ?

Tigger

gufc21 wrote: »

If we are doing the reveal would it not make sense for maggie to hold on to her bullet?

No

Necro

Drumpot wrote: »

Ah wait, I think I sort of get the reveal thing now . . So shouldn't all villagers reveal aswell ?

Yeah, would be pointless if the nrvs stayed quiet. Too much long grass to hide in

Baggly

Drumpot wrote: »

Ah wait, I think I sort of get the reveal thing now . . So shouldn't all villagers reveal aswell ?

Guffy

Tigger wrote: »

No

Why? It reduces the numbers of incorrect targets

Triceratops Ballet

Drumpot wrote: »

Ah wait, I think I sort of get the reveal thing now . . So shouldn't all villagers reveal aswell ?

Yeah, everyone reveals are we doing it?

is it time?

Guffy

Purely from a game point of view not happy with the reveal idea, but will go along with the consensus.

sullivlo

Tigger wrote: »

No

Nope. That way we get a kill, and two identities provided tigger isn't the one who is shot.

Once Maggies second bullet goes, she's useless to the village as she has no special powers.

Uriel.

i think maggie should shoot party or flushie

Necro

dottie_lottie wrote: »

Yeah, everyone reveals are we doing it?

is it time?

I'm down for it